This seems like an easy fix. Make it so they can't transfer that frequently

LVRebel2000 said:

LOL, that would be crazy. Did you see that the UNLV running back, Greg Burrell, that left for Texas State has already gone back into the portal again?
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Honestly, good for Greg. Wish he would’ve stayed, but hope he kills it wherever he ends up.

Gator 82 said:

I just found it interesting that the prophecy said the last Papal will be named Peter the Roman and one of the leading candidates to be the new Pope is Pietri (Italian for Peter) Parolin from Italy. Just kinda makes you go hmmm 🤔

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Dude I saw a crazy prophecy that there is no president after Donald J Trump..

LVRebel2000 said:

LOL, that would be crazy. Did you see that the UNLV running back, Greg Burrell, that left for Texas State has already gone back into the portal again?
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Should have stayed..

Anyone who steals from the SEC, I’m down with..

I 100% don't believe Boise is "back"... I 100% believe they rode a singular generational college player to the CFP with an OC that knew exactly what to do with him... I think Danielson has alot to answer now that their long time OC isn't there to guide him and 35 carries a game Jeanty is there to carry them...

Bullmastiff 1 said:

SDSU was nearly in the Big12 a couple years ago.

CSU would lock down the entire state of Colorado for Big12. Much like Utah / BYU and Utah.

WSU/OSU/BOISE good numbers.

Fresno/SDSU/USU no.

Again media companies are risk adverse.

I just posted the estimate for WSU / OSU is 7 million each to cover 9 games. Around 1.3 million per games.

That gives you a lens at what the games are worth. About 1.3 million.

Multiply that times how many total PAC games you think the CW will carry lets say 42 for the season.
.I bet you get close to the number the PAC will get for the football portion of media deal.

Exact science definitely not. But I bet it's ballpark. Around 6 million per school for football portion of media deal and another 3 million for basketball portion. I don't think CW will be carrying basketball. I'm guessing TNT maybe Tru TV.

9 million.

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SDSU has had good numbers historically. They were selected OVER Boise to join the PAC 2 seasons ago. Part of that is academics, for sure, but SDSU has had their worst 2 year run in nearly 20 years these past 2 years. The Big East wanted them when they were still trying to hold on to football. Their potential is high, this past year notwithstanding.

Their attendance numbers have taken a hit, but it hasn't been bad, their 2 year average has been somewhat close to ours, and this is the best 2 year stretch we have had in the history of the program.

Fresno averages some of the best attendance in G5, especially in the west. They have an audience. Their potential is high.

CSU is definitely the Danny Devito of the Colorado "Twins". Potential, yes. But I don't think the Big 12 would want them. Doesn't move the needle a bunch or really help them at all to "lock up the state". It is the same as the UW/Oregon thing with the B10.

The PAC was having talks with Fox, CBS, and ESPN just a few weeks ago. Having multiple interest can likely jump up the value and would contribute much more than TNT. ESPN really likes having Gonzaga for instance.

So 1.3 mil per game. Say an average of 3 games per week for 12 weeks. That is 5.85 per team for football alone for CW alone. 1-2 games for CBS, Fox, or ESPN will drive that up further. Again football alone.

I agree with your numbers 9 million sounds good for base media value. Then you add the probably 2.0 million CFP per team for a 8-9 team football league for football and that is 11 mil in total value.

MW is targeting their old contract 3.6 + 1.6 in CFP or so for a more diluted league 5.2 total.

5.8 more per year. Exit fees will not be anything more than 11 mil per team. That is the high end of every comp in the past 4-5 years in the same situation. Excluding SMU since they are weirdos and are not concerned about money. Break even point < 2 years and that is without any help from the PAC.

That doesn't include the bonuses besides CFP. More money if UNLV makes the playoffs (which is actually reasonable). More teams likely to make the dance and definitely more likely to advance. So a 1/2 share of significantly more creditsis still a good deal. Half share of making the playoff money is better than no share at all if we don't make it out of the MW. PAC will be in the driver's seat for the G5 inclusion especially with UNLV.

It also doesn't include bonus from the MW to be fair. But after 6 years they all go away. The amount is in significant contention too. But netting nearly 6 mil more per year? even 10 up front and a measly 1.5 for 6 years after that certainly doesn't seem worth it.

RebelScrub said:

You Catholics, definitely got some interesting interpretations. Had to look up the apostle’s creed.

the last show that I watched was Midnight Mass.

I tried to show my roommate the movie “Fallen” with Denzel Washington..


“WHY IS THE WHOLE CITY TRYING TO KILL HIM?”

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I just found it interesting that the prophecy said the last Papal will be named Peter the Roman and one of the leading candidates to be the new Pope is Pietri (Italian for Peter) Parolin from Italy. Just kinda makes you go hmmm 🤔

dcut03 said:

The CW? Yes.

Reason 1, 2 of their top 3 markets were left in the dust. The likelihood they get elevated is somewhat low.

Reason 2: They really want to get in the college football business. I think this more than anything is why the PAC decided to build from scratch vs a reverse merger. They had really good early returns and wanted to capitalize. Reverse Merger? Less business for the Cee Dub most likely

Because of this I think they are willing to pay over conventional market value. Which is why we heard 12-15 when it was just them. A team's market value is what a media partner is willing to pay. They take on the risk of over paying. ESPN did this on a much bigger scale with the SEC and ACC. They laid off a lot, but were willing to do so.

Reason 3: Boise is a flight risk, but they haven't made a jump for a reason. Small market, bad academics. Up until last year, they have been dropping in quality. Are they back? Maybe. The others aren't big flight risks. CSU and SDSU are. Just like MW to UNLV, it is worth the risk of offering the free pass since the likelihood is realistically low. But I can see UNLV being the biggest risk of the west. Biggest investment in football outside of the P4, best location, etc.

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SDSU was nearly in the Big12 a couple years ago.

CSU would lock down the entire state of Colorado for Big12. Much like Utah / BYU and Utah.

WSU/OSU/BOISE good numbers.

Fresno/SDSU/USU no.

Again media companies are risk adverse.

I just posted the estimate for WSU / OSU is 7 million each to cover 9 games. Around 1.3 million per games.

That gives you a lens at what the games are worth. About 1.3 million.

Multiply that times how many total PAC games you think the CW will carry lets say 42 for the season.
.I bet you get close to the number the PAC will get for the football portion of media deal.

Exact science definitely not. But I bet it's ballpark. Around 6 million per school for football portion of media deal and another 3 million for basketball portion. I don't think CW will be carrying basketball. I'm guessing TNT maybe Tru TV.

9 million 10 max.

Anymore than that and they are getting Big East type money for basketball.

dcut03 said:

The CW? Yes.

Reason 1, 2 of their top 3 markets were left in the dust. The likelihood they get elevated is somewhat low.

Reason 2: They really want to get in the college football business. I think this more than anything is why the PAC decided to build from scratch vs a reverse merger. They had really good early returns and wanted to capitalize. Reverse Merger? Less business for the Cee Dub most likely

Because of this I think they are willing to pay over conventional market value. Which is why we heard 12-15 when it was just them. A team's market value is what a media partner is willing to pay. They take on the risk of over paying. ESPN did this on a much bigger scale with the SEC and ACC. They laid off a lot, but were willing to do so.

Reason 3: Boise is a flight risk, but they haven't made a jump for a reason. Small market, bad academics. Up until last year, they have been dropping in quality. Are they back? Maybe. The others aren't big flight risks. CSU and SDSU are. Just like MW to UNLV, it is worth the risk of offering the free pass since the likelihood is realistically low. But I can see UNLV being the biggest risk of the west. Biggest investment in football outside of the P4, best location, etc.

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Wh like to shit on the PAC2, it is fun. But for the CW? The lowly leftover PAC 2 often did much better if not always better than their ACC games. Even with the disadavantage of being on the west coast.

Now the ACC games on the CW were often bottom feeders, but the PAC 2 were supposed to be worse than that, right? But they weren't, which means their value is probably much higher than most give them credit for.

Also shows the quality of their teams and even the PAC name, even at a shell of it's previous iteration.

Bullmastiff 1 said:

Yes and media companies are risk adverse.

You're the CW are you willing to pay top dollar for a product when you know 4 if not 5 of the schools in this conference are potential realingment targets? OSU / WSU / BOISE / SDSU / CSU could all bolt at a moments notice.

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The CW? Yes.

Reason 1, 2 of their top 3 markets were left in the dust. The likelihood they get elevated is somewhat low.

Reason 2: They really want to get in the college football business. I think this more than anything is why the PAC decided to build from scratch vs a reverse merger. They had really good early returns and wanted to capitalize. Reverse Merger? Less business for the Cee Dub most likely

Because of this I think they are willing to pay over conventional market value. Which is why we heard 12-15 when it was just them. A team's market value is what a media partner is willing to pay. They take on the risk of over paying. ESPN did this on a much bigger scale with the SEC and ACC. They laid off a lot, but were willing to do so.

Reason 3: Boise is a flight risk, but they haven't made a jump for a reason. Small market, bad academics. Up until last year, they have been dropping in quality. Are they back? Maybe. The others aren't big flight risks. CSU and SDSU are. Just like MW to UNLV, it is worth the risk of offering the free pass since the likelihood is realistically low. But I can see UNLV being the biggest risk of the west. Biggest investment in football outside of the P4, best location, etc.

Gator 82 said:

Pietri Parolin from Italy. (Peter the Roman).

Peter the Roman" refers to a figure mentioned in the Prophecy of the Pope’s a 900-year-old manuscript believed to predict the lineage of Popes. This prophecy, attributed to Saint Malachy, ends with a Pope named "Peter the Roman" who is said to preside over the Church during a time of great tribulation, followed by the destruction of Rome and the end of the papacy. Some interpretations of the prophecy suggest "Peter the Roman" will be the last Pope

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You Catholics, definitely got some interesting interpretations. Had to look up the apostle’s creed.

Rosegreen1 said:

Check out Father Stu. He’s in a supporting role and his girlfriend/partner directed the movie.

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the last show that I watched was Midnight Mass.

I tried to show my roommate the movie “Fallen” with Denzel Washington..


“WHY IS THE WHOLE CITY TRYING TO KILL HIM?”

dcut03 said:

That was 5 years ago. Things have changed significantly since then. There is general inflation, but media values have gone crazy above and beyond inflation. I used those numbers to show general value for the time since we knew what the payouts

I think currently can easily be over 12, the other top 3 be 9-10, and UNLV 8. Utah State maybe 5-6. And this is raw media value, not counting CFP payouts.

The other thing that you don't acknowledge is the WAR of UNLV. It isn't that UNLV at 8 mil is going to drive up payouts by itself, it is the fact that it replaces a school worth likely less than 2 mil. That swing is what makes UNLV potentially so valuable. If they already had their 8 we would be less valuable. As I showed with my math previously that swing could drive up payouts up to nearly a million per school by taking UNLV over a token flyer on a school that just isn't at the same caliber of the rest of the schools right now ( Like a Texas State).

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Yes and media companies are risk adverse.

You're the CW are you willing to pay top dollar for a product when you know 4 if not 5 of the schools in this conference are potential realingment targets? OSU / WSU / BOISE / SDSU / CSU could all bolt at a moments notice.

Unless the PAC sends UNLV a boat load of cash to pay exit fees UNLV isn't leaving. Unless PAC media is 10 million there's no reason to leave. If UNLV saddled themselves with 17 million in exit fees it would take 9 million per in media rights for UNLV to break even over 5 years.

If PAC was near 15 million the AAC 4 would have jumped.

I'll go back to quotes from every AD asked about why they rejected the offer.

It was a bad offer.

The media projections were viewed as overly optimistic when compared to the current AAC deal (With Houston Cincy SMU and UCF in the fold when that deal was created)
They had concerns over the stability and viability of the PAC.

The fact they publicly laid out why vs going canned answer of 'Simply not in our best interest' 'Or ' When weighing the travel we did not feel it woild be fair to our student athletes.'

Instead they to a person laid out exactly why and the Memphis AD going so far as to call it a bad deal.

Translation..

The my felt the PAC estimates of 15 million per school were horse dung.

I'll stand by between 8.5 to a max of 10.

MWC will come in at about 2.5 to 3.5. Inflation...

LVRebel2000 said:

So just looking at the big picture starting after the 5 MW schools leave, UNLV will get at least $15M, but could get as much as 20-30. Let's say they get $18M. They'll also get $5M annually from the media deal.

In that scenario, in the 6 years after the departing MW schools leave, UNLV will receive a total of $48 million. If they had left the MW, they also would have had to pay the exit fee, which we'll say is around $14M (guess). So in the end, the cost for UNLV to leave (for the next 6 years) would be $62 million.

If the PAC media deal is around 10-11 million per year, it would be close to a wash financially. If they get less, it's a net positive for UNLV in that 6 year period, at least financially. If they get more, it would be a net loss.

The other big thing that isn't clear is the ability for UNLV to go to a P4 conference, if that opportunity becomes available. In the MW, we get a free exit, if we go to a P4. The new PAC hasn't publicly given statement as to what their contracts say, so it's not really known if schools can exit the PAC for a P4 conference free of penalty or not.

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A couple of things that Grok may not be accounted for. None of the articles really talk about the negotiation of fees. Time and time again, they are get negotiated, and that is without lawsuits. It is hard to think that bringing lawyers will help the MW otherwise conferences would force lawsuits all the time to retain more money.

The max lump sum is 14 mill. Most of that is coming from the 55 mil in the poaching fees which could be significantly slashed or possibly even thrown out completely. There is no way we get a 15 mill lump sum at this point. 5-10 maybe. I could be less than that.

After that it is based soley off of exit fees moving forward. The max was 1.8 per year. Now the MW had some wiggle room for negotiated exit fees, but considered how heavily contested these are, I wouldn't count on more than 1.5 extra per year. IT could be as low as 1.0 extra per year. And that expires after 6 years. There were stipulations that UNLV would get a greater percentages of any leftovers, but any leftovers seem extremely unlikely;

So I think over the next 7 years UNLV may take home anywhere from 11 mil- 19 mill extra. It could be less that that range, but unlikely if it is OVER that, though it could be.

I think that the PAC could easily be have 4-5 more per year just media before the bonuses. It wouldn't take long to break even.

You then have to consider the exit fee cost to UNLV to jump ship, but like I mentioned before RIGHT NOW? I think the PAC offers a good amount where the cost to UNLV could be as low as a few mil if not a net zero after exit fees get negotiated down.

dcut03 said:

The CW for football did really well, especially the PAC games. Often outdrew FS1 regardless of who they showed, and often outdrew ESPN2 games which is crazy. Since ESPN 2 is always on by default at sports bars across the country when the CW defintely is not by default. Of courseas CBS sports network isn't listed.

Not counting regular CBS, that is a whole different ballgame, but rarely have MW games been elevated to that.

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

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Real well..

As in Anything with Boise / OSU / WSU.

Everybody else not so much. Better than MWC games obviously but pretty pedestrian.

PAC will be extremely reliant on those three schools. USU brings nothing for viewership.

Interesting note. Rumored numbers for just WSU/OSU for CW next year is 7 million per school to broadcast 9 of their games.

So basically getting paid 1.3 million per game..

Would 32 total PAC games be a fair estimate for games CW covers? (Around 4 games per school?)

dcut03 said:

I saw somewhere is that UCLA will need to come up with more NIL or Nico may bolt back into the portal

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LOL, that would be crazy. Did you see that the UNLV running back, Greg Burrell, that left for Texas State has already gone back into the portal again?
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Bullmastiff 1 said:

I preface it by always saying assuming numbers. The actual numbers don't matter it's the share percentage that matters. I use 5 million to make the math easier.

And you proved my point.

The argument that UNLV would increase the media value of the PAC is false. They would currently just hurt it less than any new addition.

Using your numbers.

Boise 7 SDSU 6 CSU 5 FSU 5 USU 3.5 Avg of 5.3 million. Add in UNLV it drops it to 5.03.

Now with the same numbers and giving mystery 8th member a
half share of 2.5 million instead of UNLV it only drops from 5.03 to 4.8 million.

To individually impact the media deal and swing it a full million dollars using your numbers UNLV would need to be worth approximately 10 million to a media partner on their own. Or 3 million more than Boise, 4 million more than SDSU. They aren't. Which is what I've said from the beginning.

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That was 5 years ago. Things have changed significantly since then. There is general inflation, but media values have gone crazy above and beyond inflation. I used those numbers to show general value for the time since we knew what the payouts

I think currently BOISE/OSI/WAZZU can easily be over 12, the other top 3 be 9-10, and UNLV 8. Utah State maybe 5-6. And this is raw media value, not counting CFP payouts.

The other thing that you don't acknowledge is the WAR of UNLV. It isn't that UNLV at 8 mil is going to drive up payouts by itself, it is the fact that it replaces a school worth likely less than 2 mil. That swing is what makes UNLV potentially so valuable. If they already had their 8 we would be less valuable. As I showed with my math previously that swing could drive up payouts up to nearly a million per school by taking UNLV over a token flyer on a school that just isn't at the same caliber of the rest of the schools right now ( Like a Texas State).

dcut03 said:

Your argument reminds of this clip from an old Chris Rock Bit.

When you dont make much money, being able to double it actually matters!

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

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Making a guess here.

PAC will split media partners between CW and TNT.

CW will carry football. TNT basketball.

Total media package value.

9.3 million per school.

RebelinWA said:

1. The issue holding back Hawaii isn't market penetration OR size. Its larger than a lot of the teams in the Pac and MW in both regards. Its wholly the distance and the whopping cost of traveling all sports in and out of the island. You're thinking of football only.

2. I also wouldn't think too much about the Pac Network infrastructure. Its been shuttered, and the department completely laid off. It would be expensive to get it up and running. Also, while it was great for non football sports, it was awful for football itself. They had a lot of issues being profitable since their network reach was fairly low. They had high overhead, but low per school distribution compared to other power networks.

3. Lastly, CBS is gigantic compared to the CW and it isn't close. We were first by household reach (tied with Fox), and second by revenue (behind ESPN, 11b vs 9b). The CW isn't in the ballpark for revenue or outreach. It isn't that CBS or the CW are the factor here. The product has to make money. Also, CBS owns a good chunk part of the CW.

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The CW for football did really well, especially the PAC games. Often outdrew FS1 regardless of who they showed, and often outdrew ESPN2 games which is crazy. Since ESPN 2 is always on by default at sports bars across the country when the CW defintely is not by default. Of courseas CBS sports network isn't listed.

Not counting regular CBS, that is a whole different ballgame, but rarely have MW games been elevated to that.

InZoneU said:

What exactly are you trying to deconstruct here? It's like arguing whether the Whopper is better than a Big Mac. We are both in the same boat moving forward dude. G conferences with limited national viewer #s.

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Your argument reminds of this clip from an old Chris Rock Bit.

When you dont make much money, being able to double it actually matters!

I saw somewhere is that UCLA will need to come up with more NIL or Nico may bolt back into the portal

bcvegaspt2 said:

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That would be good for him and the program!

RebelScrub said:

Solid choice.

Haven’t seen him since Expendables 2 or 3..

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Check out Father Stu. He’s in a supporting role and his girlfriend/partner directed the movie.