Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

[Bullmastiff 1]

say they are worth 10 million a piece right now to make it simple. They have 8 member getting full share currently. 80 mil.

Add a Texas state which I don't think is worth more than 750k right now. Honestly I would be surprised if they are worth 500k. They have had some of the worst viewership than any other program, even if those numbers aren't terrible accurate. They are worth less than most of their current SBC teams that have the same issues.

80.75 Mil / 9 teams= 8.9mill per team.

I think UNLV could be worth as much as 8 mill themselves. I mean we are expected to get about 5 mil as a conference in the MW, with the majority of those teams likely worth less than that individually. So some team has to be pulling up that average. It is UNLV and maybe AFA.

88/9= 9.7 mil per team

There's my math, I even showed my work like a good boy!

That is 800k, nearly a million dollars. if we are worth 10 mil which we could be that is an even mill.

I think easily some teams in the current PAC are worth more than 10. I think the 2 PAC leftovers could be worth as much as 15. Boise is probably over 10 right now.

I think USU is closer to 5, the mean of the old MW.

If current PAC deal is 64 million per year and evenly dispersed.

64 million divided by 8 is an 8 million AAV.

if UNLV is added with a 10 million dollar valuation..

74 million divided by 9 schools now.

8.22 million AAV.

Even at 10 million dollar valuation for UNLV the PAC deal only would bump up 200k by adding them.

That's peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

So straight up, you think it was a good thing that we signed the GOR? Because that is my biggest gripe and you contest everything I say ( I kid, kinda)

How in the hell did signing the GOR help UNLV right now?

No I don't think it was wise. I've never said I thought signing it was good.

I've said not shelling out millions of dollars to join the PAC might have been the right call depending on what THE PAC media rights deal comes in at.

 

[RebelinWA]

It's going to be totally irrelevant and totally different by 2031 and likely way before then. Which is why this screaming at the sky about being in some semi-sorta-not as good G conference instead of the PAC is ridiculous nonsense. I think our AD realizes this, as well.

Exactly. How many growth spurts has this city seen in in the last two decades? Even in the last 5 years, the city continues to grow. I believe by the time we hit 2031, our media market is going to continue to grow in value.

 

[InZoneU]

Agreed!

The same folks want to “howl at the wind” about NIL and recruiting too. It is what it is and all of it happens way above anyone’s pay grade on rebelnet!

I think with Harper and the coaches we now have in football and both basketball teams are capable of making do.

UNLV will adapt or die to the environment of NIL, recruiting and conference realignment in college sports, period!

Win games. In what is slowly becoming the most dynamic sports capital market in the country. The rest will follow organically, Every CFB fan East of the Mississippi would drool over an annual away day trip to Vegas.

 

[rebel5280]

Win games. In what is slowly becoming the most dynamic sports capital market in the country. The rest will follow organically, Every CFB fan west of the Mississippi would drool over an annual away day trip to Vegas.

Well said MW! Lol

 

[InZoneU]

Well said MW! Lol

I fckd it up and said west of MS instead of east. Had to edit that one lol.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Win games. In what is slowly becoming the most dynamic sports capital market in the country. The rest will follow organically, Every CFB fan East of the Mississippi would drool over an annual away day trip to Vegas.

Initially I thought the decision to stay in MWC was a mistake

But more and more I think spending 10 million dollars to leave the MWC to make possibly only 3 million more in media money would be fiscally irresponsible with more realingment on the horizon.

First three to four years you aren't making a dime you're just paying down debt.

Go dominate the MWC (hopefully) invest into the program and see how it shakes out in another 4 or 5 years

Either you're attractive enough to a power conference or whatever mega league that gets formed or you aren't. Being in the PAC won't change that.

 

[RebelinWA]

Initially I thought the decision to stay in MWC was a mistake

But more and more I think spending 10 million dollars to leave the MWC to make possibly only 3 million more in media money would be fiscally irresponsible with more realingment on the horizon.

First three to four years you aren't making a dime you're just paying down debt.

Go dominate the MWC (hopefully) invest into the program and see how it shakes out in another 4 or 5 years

Either you're attractive enough to a power conference or whatever mega league that gets formed or you aren't. Being in the PAC won't change that.

A natural response to not being in the mega league would be... to merge the left overs of the Pac/MW/ some of CUSA and form a regional conference.

 

[Rebel1986]

I think a reference to Tulane.

I did forge about Tulane, but being I lived in Baton Rouge, I can tell you that Tulane will always be an afterthought to LSU!

 

[Rebel1986]

say they are worth 10 million a piece right now to make it simple. They have 8 member getting full share currently. 80 mil.

Add a Texas state which I don't think is worth more than 750k right now. Honestly I would be surprised if they are worth 500k. They have had some of the worst viewership than any other program, even if those numbers aren't terrible accurate. They are worth less than most of their current SBC teams that have the same issues.

80.75 Mil / 9 teams= 8.9mill per team.

I think UNLV could be worth as much as 8 mill themselves. I mean we are expected to get about 5 mil as a conference in the MW, with the majority of those teams likely worth less than that individually. So some team has to be pulling up that average. It is UNLV and maybe AFA.

88/9= 9.7 mil per team

There's my math, I even showed my work like a good boy!

That is 800k, nearly a million dollars. if we are worth 10 mil which we could be that is an even mill.

I think easily some teams in the current PAC are worth more than 10. I think the 2 PAC leftovers could be worth as much as 15. Boise is probably over 10 right now.

I think USU is closer to 5, the mean of the old MW.

I think Utah State would be near the bottom of the current MWC.

 

[utestream]

I think Utah State would be near the bottom of the current MWC.

As a Ute fan first (as an alumni), and a UNLV fan third (my adopted team for no logical reason), I think Harper has done a fantastic job. I have no inside knowledge, but guess that UNLV with the bonus ends up with about 6 to 7 million dollars per year and the PAC whatever ends up with 8 to 9 million dollars per year. I didn't think it was worth the risk for UNLV to pay a buyout on the MWC contract of 10 million only to end up jumping to the Big 12 by 2030. If that does not work out, they can always jump to the best G5 conference on or before 2032.

However, the decision to do what they did represents betting on themselves. If they joined the Pac-whatever, they may not have had the resources to hire Mullen, fire Kruger, and hire Josh, or the money for NIL. Most Pac-whatever teams are not betting on themselves and instead betting on the strength of their future conference. SDSU has a small football stadium and they became a basketball school, while letting their football fall to mediocrity. They also have terrible leadership. BSU has a crap media market and I cannot see B12 or ACC considering them for both academic reasons, limited upside and limited market. FSU is limited academically and has limited upside, sharing a media market with other things. USU is a school that few in the State of Utah care about, even with a great football coaching hire. Honestly, after Utah and BYU, we view Utah State athletically as comparable to Weber State, UVU, and Salt Lake Community College. I can't see the Big12 or ACC considering schools located in BFE Washington State or Oregon media markets, when the Big 10 has Oregon and Washington. I see the value of OrState and WSU continuing to decrease over time. The Pac-whatever members may be tied at the hip to powerhouse media markets like Logan, Utah and Las Cruces, NM, while the MWC will have Las Vegas, the national following of Air Force, Hawaii for the obsessed bettors, a piece of Texas markets, and some presence in Cali and Arizona, spanning three or four time zones (forget which). I do believe that CSU would be considered for the Big 12 if Colorado leaves, but cannot envision them being considered while Colorado is there.

I think UNLV today is worth 8 to 10 million dollars, but believe that by the time they get accepted in the Big 12 before 2030, they will be worth around 20 million and increasing. I predict that along with UNLV, the Big 12 would consider Memphis and UCONN. I think the ACC would consider Tulane, UC Davis, and even UNLV and Memphis before considering schools such as SDSU, Fresno, OrState, or WSU. What UNLV needs to do? Don't worry about conferences other than the P4, invest, keep winning, and keep marketing.

 

[LVRebel2000]

As a Ute fan first (as an alumni), and a UNLV fan third (my adopted team for no logical reason), I think Harper has done a fantastic job. I have no inside knowledge, but guess that UNLV with the bonus ends up with about 6 to 7 million dollars per year and the PAC whatever ends up with 8 to 9 million dollars per year. I didn't think it was worth the risk for UNLV to pay a buyout on the MWC contract of 10 million only to end up jumping to the Big 12 by 2030. If that does not work out, they can always jump to the best G5 conference on or before 2032.

However, the decision to do what they did represents betting on themselves. If they joined the Pac-whatever, they may not have had the resources to hire Mullen, fire Kruger, and hire Josh, or the money for NIL. Most Pac-whatever teams are not betting on themselves and instead betting on the strength of their future conference. SDSU has a small football stadium and they became a basketball school, while letting their football fall to mediocrity. They also have terrible leadership. BSU has a crap media market and I cannot see B12 or ACC considering them for both academic reasons, limited upside and limited market. FSU is limited academically and has limited upside, sharing a media market with other things. USU is a school that few in the State of Utah care about, even with a great football coaching hire. Honestly, after Utah and BYU, we view Utah State athletically as comparable to Weber State, UVU, and Salt Lake Community College. I can't see the Big12 or ACC considering schools located in BFE Washington State or Oregon media markets, when the Big 10 has Oregon and Washington. I see the value of OrState and WSU continuing to decrease over time. The Pac-whatever members may be tied at the hip to powerhouse media markets like Logan, Utah and Las Cruces, NM, while the MWC will have Las Vegas, the national following of Air Force, Hawaii for the obsessed bettors, a piece of Texas markets, and some presence in Cali and Arizona, spanning three or four time zones (forget which). I do believe that CSU would be considered for the Big 12 if Colorado leaves, but cannot envision them being considered while Colorado is there.

I think UNLV today is worth 8 to 10 million dollars, but believe that by the time they get accepted in the Big 12 before 2030, they will be worth around 20 million and increasing. I predict that along with UNLV, the Big 12 would consider Memphis and UCONN. I think the ACC would consider Tulane, UC Davis, and even UNLV and Memphis before considering schools such as SDSU, Fresno, OrState, or WSU. What UNLV needs to do? Don't worry about conferences other than the P4, invest, keep winning, and keep marketing.

Good point about going to the best G5 conference in 2032 as a possibility. Depending on what happens with the next round of expansion, I would think that both the AAC and the PAC would want to add UNLV if possible, assuming no P4 conferences want to add us.

 

[dcut03]

If current PAC deal is 64 million per year and evenly dispersed.

64 million divided by 8 is an 8 million AAV.

if UNLV is added with a 10 million dollar valuation..

74 million divided by 9 schools now.

8.22 million AAV.

Even at 10 million dollar valuation for UNLV the PAC deal only would bump up 200k by adding them.

That's peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

You are missing the biggest part.

Taking UNLV over a school worth very little. THAT is what creates the big swing in AAV. Not UNLV by itself, it is take UNLV worth 8-10 mil ( for agruments sake) instead of a team probably worth less that 1 million like a Texas State.

So having a full official conference, not having to use a lesser team that really doesn't fit the quality of the rest of the conferense, and bumping the AAV by nearly a million in the process.

That is value, and that would give us leverage

 

[dcut03]

Initially I thought the decision to stay in MWC was a mistake

But more and more I think spending 10 million dollars to leave the MWC to make possibly only 3 million more in media money would be fiscally irresponsible with more realingment on the horizon.

First three to four years you aren't making a dime you're just paying down debt.

Go dominate the MWC (hopefully) invest into the program and see how it shakes out in another 4 or 5 years

Either you're attractive enough to a power conference or whatever mega league that gets formed or you aren't. Being in the PAC won't change that.

As a Ute fan first (as an alumni), and a UNLV fan third (my adopted team for no logical reason), I think Harper has done a fantastic job. I have no inside knowledge, but guess that UNLV with the bonus ends up with about 6 to 7 million dollars per year and the PAC whatever ends up with 8 to 9 million dollars per year. I didn't think it was worth the risk for UNLV to pay a buyout on the MWC contract of 10 million only to end up jumping to the Big 12 by 2030. If that does not work out, they can always jump to the best G5 conference on or before 2032.

However, the decision to do what they did represents betting on themselves. If they joined the Pac-whatever, they may not have had the resources to hire Mullen, fire Kruger, and hire Josh, or the money for NIL. Most Pac-whatever teams are not betting on themselves and instead betting on the strength of their future conference. SDSU has a small football stadium and they became a basketball school, while letting their football fall to mediocrity. They also have terrible leadership. BSU has a crap media market and I cannot see B12 or ACC considering them for both academic reasons, limited upside and limited market. FSU is limited academically and has limited upside, sharing a media market with other things. USU is a school that few in the State of Utah care about, even with a great football coaching hire. Honestly, after Utah and BYU, we view Utah State athletically as comparable to Weber State, UVU, and Salt Lake Community College. I can't see the Big12 or ACC considering schools located in BFE Washington State or Oregon media markets, when the Big 10 has Oregon and Washington. I see the value of OrState and WSU continuing to decrease over time. The Pac-whatever members may be tied at the hip to powerhouse media markets like Logan, Utah and Las Cruces, NM, while the MWC will have Las Vegas, the national following of Air Force, Hawaii for the obsessed bettors, a piece of Texas markets, and some presence in Cali and Arizona, spanning three or four time zones (forget which). I do believe that CSU would be considered for the Big 12 if Colorado leaves, but cannot envision them being considered while Colorado is there.

I think UNLV today is worth 8 to 10 million dollars, but believe that by the time they get accepted in the Big 12 before 2030, they will be worth around 20 million and increasing. I predict that along with UNLV, the Big 12 would consider Memphis and UCONN. I think the ACC would consider Tulane, UC Davis, and even UNLV and Memphis before considering schools such as SDSU, Fresno, OrState, or WSU. What UNLV needs to do? Don't worry about conferences other than the P4, invest, keep winning, and keep marketing.

Here is the thing. Leaving for the PAC may not cost much at all.

As for hiring coaches? That has come primarily from boosters, so the conference hasn't mattered much yet.

There seems to be smoke that the MW will not get near what they thought from the PAC for better or worse. So the bonuses for staying seems to be worse than expected.

On top of that, the PAC is struggling to find an 8th fulltime member. Their options are paper thin, and they would absolutely LOVE to become whole with UNLV of all teams right now.

It is very possible, I would argue likely, that the upfront costs of joining the PAC would be zero. After the exit fees get negotiated down, and the fact that they offered 6million when they weren't as desperate, means that we could likely get all exit fees paid for us.

That combined with the bonuses from the MW will be less to a least some degree, it may not take very long to break even with leaving vs Staying, especially if the average payout for media could be double of the MW.

It may not be, the poaching fees could hold up 100% which would be great. It makes staying a bit more palatable.

But staying will eventually hurt UNLV. The reduced annual revenue will catch up eventually, whether it take 4-5 years, or < 1 year. The PAC will have the de facto tie breaker if it comes to a CFP spot, due to better SOS. We will have a slimmer degree of error to make the playoffs at the very least.

Then you look at basketball, and it is even a bigger divide in SOS.

Both conferences will have a free pass. Making twice the annual media revenue actually does matter. Yes, it is peanuts compared to P4, but with athletic budgets being what they are, even last penny helps. If we are fighting perhaps some of the new PAC as well as Memphis and Tulane for being in on the next P4 expansion, the fact they make nearly twice the media revenue certainly gives them an advantage.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

You are missing the biggest part.

Taking UNLV over a school worth very little. THAT is what creates the big swing in AAV. Not UNLV by itself, it is take UNLV worth 8-10 mil ( for agruments sake) instead of a team probably worth less that 1 million like a Texas State.

So having a full official conference, not having to use a lesser team that really doesn't fit the quality of the rest of the conferense, and bumping the AAV by nearly a million in the process.

That is value, and that would give us leverage

1- Where did you read the PAC offered UNLV 6 million dollars.?

2- To make math easy let's say last MWC media deal was 55 million. Divided among 11 teams (Hawaii partial share as FB only so we aren't factoring them)

You need to reach a 5 million dollar AAV.

But all schools obviously don't have the same value.


Show me what you think each school in the MWC was worth to a media partner.

 

[Rebel1986]

Here is the thing. Leaving for the PAC may not cost much at all.

As for hiring coaches? That has come primarily from boosters, so the conference hasn't mattered much yet.

There seems to be smoke that the MW will not get near what they thought from the PAC for better or worse. So the bonuses for staying seems to be worse than expected.

On top of that, the PAC is struggling to find an 8th fulltime member. Their options are paper thin, and they would absolutely LOVE to become whole with UNLV of all teams right now.

It is very possible, I would argue likely, that the upfront costs of joining the PAC would be zero. After the exit fees get negotiated down, and the fact that they offered 6million when they weren't as desperate, means that we could likely get all exit fees paid for us.

That combined with the bonuses from the MW will be less to a least some degree, it may not take very long to break even with leaving vs Staying, especially if the average payout for media could be double of the MW.

It may not be, the poaching fees could hold up 100% which would be great. It makes staying a bit more palatable.

But staying will eventually hurt UNLV. The reduced annual revenue will catch up eventually, whether it take 4-5 years, or < 1 year. The PAC will have the de facto tie breaker if it comes to a CFP spot, due to better SOS. We will have a slimmer degree of error to make the playoffs at the very least.

Then you look at basketball, and it is even a bigger divide in SOS.

Both conferences will have a free pass. Making twice the annual media revenue actually does matter. Yes, it is peanuts compared to P4, but with athletic budgets being what they are, even last penny helps. If we are fighting perhaps some of the new PAC as well as Memphis and Tulane for being in on the next P4 expansion, the fact they make nearly twice the media revenue certainly gives them an advantage.

Why would the MWC negotiate the exit fee at all? If UNLV looked at going to the PAC, the MWC would have the PAC by the balls since they are running out of time to get to an eighth team. All they would need to do is site back and watch it all fall apart.

 

[dcut03]

1- Where did you read the PAC offered UNLV 6 million dollars.?

2- To make math easy let's say last MWC media deal was 55 million. Divided among 11 teams (Hawaii partial share as FB only so we aren't factoring them)

You need to reach a 5 million dollar AAV.

But all schools obviously don't have the same value.


Show me what you think each school in the MWC was worth to a media partner.

1. I saw it on a live stream on Youtube when Harper announced they were staying the MW after we were offered. It was part of the Q and A session. I am trying to find the video, but it may not have been archived. But he said it, though he probably regretted saying that out loud. Part of the reason maybe it wasn't archived?

2. The true AAV for the MW was 3.6 million. It was raised to 5 after the CFP payouts.

Say the new target is 5 mil for the new MW and we will factor in inflation and the fact that media contracts for college sports have been ballooning significantly. The only schools I think are currently above that 5 mil value are UNLV and Air Force. Maybe Hawaii, but I don't totally buy that their value is as high as some are saying. If they were, they would have been a full member long ago. Yes you have to factor in travel, but if they were above the mean then I think it would have been worth it to everyone to have them as a full member.

Actual value? I honestly don't know. UTEP and NIU are coming from conferences making 750K or less per team, I doubt they are worth more than double that. Especially NIU as a part time member. SJSU doesn't have the fan support despite their market, so I think they are below the mean. UNM is probably around the mean, UNR similar, though maybe a bit lower. Wyoming, small market but decent fanbase, probably near the mean.

Here is the other thing, the same school may be worth more in the PAC than the MW. It is a better brand even in its new iteration, and when paired with the other teams, and on a channel that isn't CBS sports network that no one watches, then there can be more value. Considering the CW had good numbers last year, that isn't too far fetched. Also the PAC has their own network infrastructure that keeps costs down and allows higher payouts, at least when factoring in the CW portion of the deal.

Bottom line I think UNLV is worth well above the mean in the leftover MW, which is why they at least offered us so much more money to stay. Same with AFA. I think UNLV has raised their value over the last season. And the recent commitment to football with Mullen and having the highest coach's salary of all of the G5 by far makes them a low risk as a flavor of the month.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

1. I saw it on a live stream on Youtube when Harper announced they were staying the MW after we were offered. It was part of the Q and A session. I am trying to find the video, but it may not have been archived. But he said it, though he probably regretted saying that out loud. Part of the reason maybe it wasn't archived?

2. The true AAV for the MW was 3.6 million. It was raised to 5 after the CFP payouts.

Say the new target is 5 mil for the new MW and we will factor in inflation and the fact that media contracts for college sports have been ballooning significantly. The only schools I think are currently above that 5 mil value are UNLV and Air Force. Maybe Hawaii, but I don't totally buy that their value is as high as some are saying. If they were, they would have been a full member long ago. Yes you have to factor in travel, but if they were above the mean then I think it would have been worth it to everyone to have them as a full member.

Actual value? I honestly don't know. UTEP and NIU are coming from conferences making 750K or less per team, I doubt they are worth more than double that. Especially NIU as a part time member. SJSU doesn't have the fan support despite their market, so I think they are below the mean. UNM is probably around the mean, UNR similar, though maybe a bit lower. Wyoming, small market but decent fanbase, probably near the mean.

Here is the other thing, the same school may be worth more in the PAC than the MW. It is a better brand even in its new iteration, and when paired with the other teams, and on a channel that isn't CBS sports network that no one watches, then there can be more value. Considering the CW had good numbers last year, that isn't too far fetched. Also the PAC has their own network infrastructure that keeps costs down and allows higher payouts, at least when factoring in the CW portion of the deal.

Bottom line I think UNLV is worth well above the mean in the leftover MW, which is why they at least offered us so much more money to stay. Same with AFA. I think UNLV has raised their value over the last season. And the recent commitment to football with Mullen and having the highest coach's salary of all of the G5 by far makes them a low risk as a flavor of the month.

In no particular order the biggest factors in the media deal equations are..

Market size
Market penetration
Brand strength (Outside Market appeal)
Match ups (Premium opponents)
There's also packing of teams. Reno might be worth 3 mil but packed in the same conference as UNLV their value gets a bump.
Added Time zone.



If you did an evaluation on WSU /OSU three years ago they would have been worth significantly more because they were playing USC OREGON UTAH etc.

SDSU for example has poor tv numbers but has a big market size. I'll actually rephrase that, considering size of San Diego they don't draw as well as you would hope. Of real note SDSU has seen a big drop in season tickets sales.

The PACs three largest brands are in three of their 4 smallest markets.

Logan Utah gets lumped into the Salt Lake City market a bit but lets be honest that is Utes and even BYU country. Aggies overall tv numbers are pretty

poor.

I'll take a stab you tell me where I might be wrong. I'm not factoring in Hawaii since they were on Spectrum. I think MWC deal was 55 million. I need to get to where the 11 teams have an AAV of 5 million.

BOISE 9
CSU 6
SDSU 7
FRESNO 6
UNLV 6(More on that later)
WYO 3
UNR 4
UNM 2
AFA 4
USU 5
SJSU 3

(I think I got to 55)

Boise Brand carries a lot of weight.

CSU market size / potential.

SDSU Market size past success

Fresno Solid market size consistent performance

UNLV Great market upside but overall poor athletic performance until recently football success.

Wyo Loyal fan base small market.

UNR (Probably over valued them)

UNM Decent market poor football apathetic fan base for that sport

AFA hard to gage. Might have over valued them.

USU decent athletic performance smaller market.

SJSU Massive market..And nobody cares.

Point being Even if you valued UNLV at 8 million and the PAC was seeking a media deal 8 million or more at best UNLV would help it tread water. Wouldn't increase the media package.

 

[Rebel1986]

In no particular order the biggest factors in the media deal equations are..

Market size
Market penetration
Brand strength (Outside Market appeal)
Match ups (Premium opponents)
There's also packing of teams. Reno might be worth 3 mil but packed in the same conference as UNLV their value gets a bump.
Added Time zone.



If you did an evaluation on WSU /OSU three years ago they would have been worth significantly more because they were playing USC OREGON UTAH etc.

SDSU for example has poor tv numbers but has a big market size. I'll actually rephrase that, considering size of San Diego they don't draw as well as you would hope. Of real note SDSU has seen a big drop in season tickets sales.

The PACs three largest brands are in three of their 4 smallest markets.

Logan Utah gets lumped into the Salt Lake City market a bit but lets be honest that is Utes and even BYU country. Aggies overall tv numbers are pretty

poor.

I'll take a stab you tell me where I might be wrong. I'm not factoring in Hawaii since they were on Spectrum. I think MWC deal was 55 million. I need to get to where the 11 teams have an AAV of 5 million.

BOISE 9
CSU 6
SDSU 7
FRESNO 6
UNLV 6(More on that later)
WYO 3
UNR 4
UNM 2
AFA 4
USU 5
SJSU 3

(I think I got to 55)

Boise Brand carries a lot of weight.

CSU market size / potential.

SDSU Market size past success

Fresno Solid market size consistent performance

UNLV Great market upside but overall poor athletic performance until recently football success.

Wyo Loyal fan base small market.

UNR (Probably over valued them)

UNM Decent market poor football apathetic fan base for that sport

AFA hard to gage. Might have over valued them.

USU decent athletic performance smaller market.

SJSU Massive market..And nobody cares.

Point being Even if you valued UNLV at 8 million and the PAC was seeking a media deal 8 million or more at best UNLV would help it tread water. Wouldn't increase the media package.

Not agreeing with the numbers. First Hawaii should be included, because they are part of the MWC, and one of the better markets. Air Force is a national brand and you are putting them near the bottom, while in truth they would most likely be in front of all but BSU. Utah State has a very small market, less than 1/4 of that of UNLV, when you include the loss of market to BYU and Utah. Fresno State may do well in football, but they have most likely the poorest market in the MWC, with the area mostly consisting of farming communities. While SDSU is in a large market, they have very little penetration, and based on current history, I would be willing to take a bet that any network would pay significantly more for UNLV that SDSU based on current history.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Not agreeing with the numbers. First Hawaii should be included, because they are part of the MWC, and one of the better markets. Air Force is a national brand and you are putting them near the bottom, while in truth they would most likely be in front of all but BSU. Utah State has a very small market, less than 1/4 of that of UNLV, when you include the loss of market to BYU and Utah. Fresno State may do well in football, but they have most likely the poorest market in the MWC, with the area mostly consisting of farming communities. While SDSU is in a large market, they have very little penetration, and based on current history, I would be willing to take a bet that any network would pay significantly more for UNLV that SDSU based on current

I didn't include Hawaii in that model because I was talking about the old MWC contract and I don't know how they fit in with their Spectrum deal and what their money payout was.

I literally said SDSU had poor market penetration. As did UNLV until last year.

I said USU was small market.

I ramped up the numbers to prove a point that even inflated the PAC might struggle to reach 10 million.
.I also inflated the numbers because people keep saying UNLV would boost the PAC media. That simply isn't the case. Most likely if the PAC was getting an 8 million valuation the addition of UNLV would hold it there where as a Texas State or New Mexico State would bring down the AAV assuming all schools are getting an equal share.

If the PAC is being told their media deal is 9 million per and UNLV joins its not jumping to 10 million. Why? Because UNLV would have to be worth nearly 20 million on their own to move the AAC by a million dollars and they absolutely are not because if they were we would be talking about the BIG 12 schedule not the MWC and PAC.

You woild lose that bet. They would be worth around the same. I can assure of that. Over the next 3-5 years yes as of right now you would lose that bet. UNLV needs a couple more years of sustained success and see increases in viewership to be 'trusted' as a good bet for a media partner.

SDSU was set for the BIG12 a few years back. UNLV is still hopeful.

It's trending the other way now but not quite there just yet.

 

[RebelinWA]

1. I saw it on a live stream on Youtube when Harper announced they were staying the MW after we were offered. It was part of the Q and A session. I am trying to find the video, but it may not have been archived. But he said it, though he probably regretted saying that out loud. Part of the reason maybe it wasn't archived?

2. The true AAV for the MW was 3.6 million. It was raised to 5 after the CFP payouts.

Say the new target is 5 mil for the new MW and we will factor in inflation and the fact that media contracts for college sports have been ballooning significantly. The only schools I think are currently above that 5 mil value are UNLV and Air Force. Maybe Hawaii, but I don't totally buy that their value is as high as some are saying. If they were, they would have been a full member long ago. Yes you have to factor in travel, but if they were above the mean then I think it would have been worth it to everyone to have them as a full member.

Actual value? I honestly don't know. UTEP and NIU are coming from conferences making 750K or less per team, I doubt they are worth more than double that. Especially NIU as a part time member. SJSU doesn't have the fan support despite their market, so I think they are below the mean. UNM is probably around the mean, UNR similar, though maybe a bit lower. Wyoming, small market but decent fanbase, probably near the mean.

Here is the other thing, the same school may be worth more in the PAC than the MW. It is a better brand even in its new iteration, and when paired with the other teams, and on a channel that isn't CBS sports network that no one watches, then there can be more value. Considering the CW had good numbers last year, that isn't too far fetched. Also the PAC has their own network infrastructure that keeps costs down and allows higher payouts, at least when factoring in the CW portion of the deal.

Bottom line I think UNLV is worth well above the mean in the leftover MW, which is why they at least offered us so much more money to stay. Same with AFA. I think UNLV has raised their value over the last season. And the recent commitment to football with Mullen and having the highest coach's salary of all of the G5 by far makes them a low risk as a flavor of the month.

1. The issue holding back Hawaii isn't market penetration OR size. Its larger than a lot of the teams in the Pac and MW in both regards. Its wholly the distance and the whopping cost of traveling all sports in and out of the island. You're thinking of football only.

2. I also wouldn't think too much about the Pac Network infrastructure. Its been shuttered, and the department completely laid off. It would be expensive to get it up and running. Also, while it was great for non football sports, it was awful for football itself. They had a lot of issues being profitable since their network reach was fairly low. They had high overhead, but low per school distribution compared to other power networks.

3. Lastly, CBS is gigantic compared to the CW and it isn't close. We were first by household reach (tied with Fox), and second by revenue (behind ESPN, 11b vs 9b). The CW isn't in the ballpark for revenue or outreach. It isn't that CBS or the CW are the factor here. The product has to make money. Also, CBS owns a good chunk part of the CW.

 

[Rebel1986]

I didn't include Hawaii in that model because I was talking about the old MWC contract and I don't know how they fit in with their Spectrum deal and what their money payout was.

I literally said SDSU had poor market penetration. As did UNLV until last year.

I said USU was small market.

I ramped up the numbers to prove a point that even inflated the PAC might struggle to reach 10 million.
.I also inflated the numbers because people keep saying UNLV would boost the PAC media. That simply isn't the case. Most likely if the PAC was getting an 8 million valuation the addition of UNLV would hold it there where as a Texas State or New Mexico State would bring down the AAV assuming all schools are getting an equal share.

If the PAC is being told their media deal is 9 million per and UNLV joins its not jumping to 10 million. Why? Because UNLV would have to be worth nearly 20 million on their own to move the AAC by a million dollars and they absolutely are not because if they were we would be talking about the BIG 12 schedule not the MWC and PAC.

You woild lose that bet. They would be worth around the same. I can assure of that. Over the next 3-5 years yes as of right now you would lose that bet. UNLV needs a couple more years of sustained success and see increases in viewership to be 'trusted' as a good bet for a media partner.

SDSU was set for the BIG12 a few years back. UNLV is still hopeful.

It's trending the other way now but not quite there just yet.

You think I would lose that bet, and I think I wouldn't. We will leave it at that! As a side note, UNLV pulls in 2X-3X as much in football ticket revenue compared to SDSU this last season.

 

[Rebel1986]

1. The issue holding back Hawaii isn't market penetration OR size. Its larger than a lot of the teams in the Pac and MW in both regards. Its wholly the distance and the whopping cost of traveling all sports in and out of the island. You're thinking of football only.

2. I also wouldn't think too much about the Pac Network infrastructure. Its been shuttered, and the department completely laid off. It would be expensive to get it up and running. Also, while it was great for non football sports, it was awful for football itself. They had a lot of issues being profitable since their network reach was fairly low. They had high overhead, but low per school distribution compared to other power networks.

3. Lastly, CBS is gigantic compared to the CW and it isn't close. We were first by household reach (tied with Fox), and second by revenue (behind ESPN, 11b vs 9b). The CW isn't in the ballpark for revenue or outreach. It isn't that CBS or the CW are the factor here. The product has to make money. Also, CBS owns a good chunk part of the CW.

If the travel cost is such a huge issue, how does Hawaii play their other sports in a minor conference and make it work financially? UNLV needs to take advantage of the extra football game allowed to help make up for any travel cost to the island.

 

[RebelScrub]

If the travel cost is such a huge issue, how does Hawaii play their other sports in a minor conference and make it work financially? UNLV needs to take advantage of the extra football game allowed to help make up for any travel cost to the island.

Hawaii to the new Pac 2 is a no brainer..

Reno to the new Pac 2 would be a dagger…

 

[RebelinWA]

If the travel cost is such a huge issue, how does Hawaii play their other sports in a minor conference and make it work financially? UNLV needs to take advantage of the extra football game allowed to help make up for any travel cost to the island.

I’m pretty sure Hawaii is highly subsidized on their end because of their Hawaiian Airlines partnership. On all of their other sports mostly play in California. Their football team charters a Hawaiian Airlines plane for their players, but the bulk of their equipment and cargo is dumped in LA and trucked everywhere else.

For all other sports, they fly on regular Hawaiian flights to California.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

You think I would lose that bet, and I think I wouldn't. We will leave it at that! As a side note, UNLV pulls in 2X-3X as much in football ticket revenue compared to SDSU this last season.

UNLV's trajectory is rising. SDSU and UNLV are similiar in market sizes and market penetration. At this moment they would be valued similarly. Because a media partner would take into consideration whether or not UNLVs current trajectory is sustainable. Media companies are by and large risk adverse. UNLV with a mere two years of success poses some risk. UNLV'S basketball woes have to be considered as well.

I absolutely think UNLV will surpass SDSU in media value over the next few years. At this moment though I'm not sure they have. Either way it would be very close..

SDSU was absolutely on the BIG12s radar a few short years ago. UNLV wasn't. Two years of football success doesn't suddenly flip the entire script. UNLV has the highest media potential of anybody in the PAC/MWC but need a couple more years.

If UNLV was worth more than SDSU it would have been us that turned down a half share in the BIG 12 and not SDSU a few years ago.

Again gap closing may even be close to even.

Seriously just do the math...

At best the MWC can hope for 5 million per in a media deal. PAC likely around 8 maybe 9.

Let's say MWC media deal is 4 mil AAV.

Everybody gets a full share. (NIU likely not getting full for football only but I'm handing them one for ease of math)

9 x 4 = 36

Remember PAC In this exercise is getting 8 million per school. BOISE WSU OSU are propping up the deal and SDSU is only worth 7 million.

Back to MWC

I'm giving UNLV 7 million of the MWC 36.

Leaving me 29 million to divide between remaining 8 members.

That means every other school in the MWC is only worth 3.6 Million. (On average some might be worth 4 others 2)

Meaning UNLV is worth double every school in the MWC.

And again shows SDSU and UNLV are extremely close at this time.

Unless you think UNLV is worth 10 and everybody else in the MWC is worth around only 3.

If UNLV was worth 10 million we would have been the absolute top priority for the PAC. Over Memphis or Tulane. We wouldn't have added travel costs.

 

[dcut03]

In no particular order the biggest factors in the media deal equations are..

Market size
Market penetration
Brand strength (Outside Market appeal)
Match ups (Premium opponents)
There's also packing of teams. Reno might be worth 3 mil but packed in the same conference as UNLV their value gets a bump.
Added Time zone.



If you did an evaluation on WSU /OSU three years ago they would have been worth significantly more because they were playing USC OREGON UTAH etc.

SDSU for example has poor tv numbers but has a big market size. I'll actually rephrase that, considering size of San Diego they don't draw as well as you would hope. Of real note SDSU has seen a big drop in season tickets sales.

The PACs three largest brands are in three of their 4 smallest markets.

Logan Utah gets lumped into the Salt Lake City market a bit but lets be honest that is Utes and even BYU country. Aggies overall tv numbers are pretty

poor.

I'll take a stab you tell me where I might be wrong. I'm not factoring in Hawaii since they were on Spectrum. I think MWC deal was 55 million. I need to get to where the 11 teams have an AAV of 5 million.

BOISE 9
CSU 6
SDSU 7
FRESNO 6
UNLV 6(More on that later)
WYO 3
UNR 4
UNM 2
AFA 4
USU 5
SJSU 3

(I think I got to 55)

Boise Brand carries a lot of weight.

CSU market size / potential.

SDSU Market size past success

Fresno Solid market size consistent performance

UNLV Great market upside but overall poor athletic performance until recently football success.

Wyo Loyal fan base small market.

UNR (Probably over valued them)

UNM Decent market poor football apathetic fan base for that sport

AFA hard to gage. Might have over valued them.

USU decent athletic performance smaller market.

SJSU Massive market..And nobody cares.

Point being Even if you valued UNLV at 8 million and the PAC was seeking a media deal 8 million or more at best UNLV would help it tread water. Wouldn't increase the media package.

A couple of points you continually miss.

#1: For base media value, the number is 3.6 per team. so the could contract was worth 3.6 x 11 plus the extra 1.8 that Boise got, and lets add Hawaii at 2/3 share at 2.4 so that is 43.8 million .

So AAV worth 5 years ago for my best guess
Boise 7
SDSU 6
CSU 5
FSU 5
UNLV 4
AFA 3.8
USU 3.5
Hawaii football only 2.4
UNR 2.2
UNM 2.0
Wyo 1.7
SJSU1.2

 

[InZoneU]

A couple of points you continually miss.

#1: For base media value, the number is 3.6 per team. so the could contract was worth 3.6 x 11 plus the extra 1.8 that Boise got, and lets add Hawaii at 2/3 share at 2.4 so that is 43.8 million .

So AAV worth 5 years ago for my best guess
Boise 7
SDSU 6
CSU 5
FSU 5
UNLV 4
AFA 3.8
USU 3.5
Hawaii football only 2.4
UNR 2.2
UNM 2.0
Wyo 1.7
SJSU1.2

What exactly are you trying to deconstruct here? It's like arguing whether the Whopper is better than a Big Mac. We are both in the same boat moving forward dude. G conferences with limited national viewer #s.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

A couple of points you continually miss.

#1: For base media value, the number is 3.6 per team. so the could contract was worth 3.6 x 11 plus the extra 1.8 that Boise got, and lets add Hawaii at 2/3 share at 2.4 so that is 43.8 million .

So AAV worth 5 years ago for my best guess
Boise 7
SDSU 6
CSU 5
FSU 5
UNLV 4
AFA 3.8
USU 3.5
Hawaii football only 2.4
UNR 2.2
UNM 2.0
Wyo 1.7
SJSU1.2

I preface it by always saying assuming numbers. The actual numbers don't matter it's the share percentage that matters. I use 5 million to make the math easier.

And you proved my point.

The argument that UNLV would increase the media value of the PAC is false. They would currently just hurt it less than any new addition.

Using your numbers.

Boise 7 SDSU 6 CSU 5 FSU 5 USU 3.5 Avg of 5.3 million. Add in UNLV it drops it to 5.03.

Now with the same numbers and giving mystery 8th member a
half share of 2.5 million instead of UNLV it only drops from 5.03 to 4.8 million.

To individually impact the media deal and swing it a full million dollars using your numbers UNLV would need to be worth approximately 10 million to a media partner on their own. Or 3 million more than Boise, 4 million more than SDSU. They aren't. Which is what I've said from the beginning.

 

[LVRebel2000]

I asked Grok some questions about the new MWC grant of rights, and got some interesting results. Here was one of the answers regarding how much UNLV can expect to get, with some of the money being tied up in lawsuits, etc.

Grok: "The MWC’s GOR and agreements explicitly allocate 24.5% of the first $61 million in exit fees to UNLV (and Air Force), equating to $14.945 million each, plus a share of a $21 million bucket, totaling $20.09 million. These terms are legally binding and not directly tied to the poaching fee dispute."

Based on that, it's guaranteed that UNLV will get a minimum of $15 million, which would be one of the first payouts.

Here's what Grok had to say regarding the chances of getting the full amount:

Grok: "UNLV Receiving Extra Funds: Moderately high (60–70%) chance of receiving substantial funds ($15–20 million), but low (20–30%) for the full $20–30 million due to legal risks and potential settlements."

 

[LVRebel2000]

In regards to the extra money annually that UNLV will get, Grok says it's pretty much guaranteed from the GOR, but the exact dollar amount will depend on the final media deal.

Here's what Grok said about the short and long term money that UNLV should get:

Total Financial Impact for UNLV:

• Short-Term (2025–2026): UNLV is likely to receive $10–20 million in one-time funds, with $14.945 million guaranteed from exit fees, though the full $20–30 million depends on legal outcomes.
• Long-Term (2026–2032): UNLV will receive approximately $5–5.3 million annually from the media deal, totaling $30–31.8 million over six years, assuming no disruptions to the MWC’s media contracts.
• Combined Estimate: Over the GOR period, UNLV could see $40–50 million in total new revenue ($10–20 million one-time + $30–31.8 million media rights), significantly boosting its athletic budget

 

[LVRebel2000]

In regards to the extra money annually that UNLV will get, Grok says it's pretty much guaranteed from the GOR, but the exact dollar amount will depend on the final media deal.

Here's what Grok said about the short and long term money that UNLV should get:

Total Financial Impact for UNLV:

• Short-Term (2025–2026): UNLV is likely to receive $10–20 million in one-time funds, with $14.945 million guaranteed from exit fees, though the full $20–30 million depends on legal outcomes.
• Long-Term (2026–2032): UNLV will receive approximately $5–5.3 million annually from the media deal, totaling $30–31.8 million over six years, assuming no disruptions to the MWC’s media contracts.
• Combined Estimate: Over the GOR period, UNLV could see $40–50 million in total new revenue ($10–20 million one-time + $30–31.8 million media rights), significantly boosting its athletic budget

So just looking at the big picture starting after the 5 MW schools leave, UNLV will get at least $15M, but could get as much as 20-30. Let's say they get $18M. They'll also get $5M annually from the media deal.

In that scenario, in the 6 years after the departing MW schools leave, UNLV will receive a total of $48 million. If they had left the MW, they also would have had to pay the exit fee, which we'll say is around $14M (guess). So in the end, the cost for UNLV to leave (for the next 6 years) would be $62 million.

If the PAC media deal is around 10-11 million per year, it would be close to a wash financially. If they get less, it's a net positive for UNLV in that 6 year period, at least financially. If they get more, it would be a net loss.

The other big thing that isn't clear is the ability for UNLV to go to a P4 conference, if that opportunity becomes available. In the MW, we get a free exit, if we go to a P4. The new PAC hasn't publicly given statement as to what their contracts say, so it's not really known if schools can exit the PAC for a P4 conference free of penalty or not.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Utah leaving to the Big 10 in next 2 years will open the door to UNLV...

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Utah leaving to the Big 10 in next 2 years will open the door to UNLV...

If that plays out...I could see it for sure. BIG 12 would still have a big chunk of UTAH market.

Only caveat I gues would be does the BIG 12 look more East to give WVU/CINCY/UCF another travel partner?(Memphis/Tulane/UConn)

 

[LVRebel2000]

Utah leaving to the Big 10 in next 2 years will open the door to UNLV...

I'm sure any school would leave the Big 12 for the Big 10 given the opportunity. I've seen rumors about Utah going to the B10, but are they substantiated?

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I'm sure any school would leave the Big 12 for the Big 10 given the opportunity. I've seen rumors about Utah going to the B10, but are they substantiated?

Not that I've seen.A lot of it stems from UTAH AD comments about Big12 officials.

I'm not its being discussed or not. I mean it does help the Oregon Washington USC UCLA with a travel partner.

 

[dcut03]

What exactly are you trying to deconstruct here? It's like arguing whether the Whopper is better than a Big Mac. We are both in the same boat moving forward dude. G conferences with limited national viewer #s.

Your argument reminds of this clip from an old Chris Rock Bit.

When you dont make much money, being able to double it actually matters!

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtube.com

 

[dcut03]

1. The issue holding back Hawaii isn't market penetration OR size. Its larger than a lot of the teams in the Pac and MW in both regards. Its wholly the distance and the whopping cost of traveling all sports in and out of the island. You're thinking of football only.

2. I also wouldn't think too much about the Pac Network infrastructure. Its been shuttered, and the department completely laid off. It would be expensive to get it up and running. Also, while it was great for non football sports, it was awful for football itself. They had a lot of issues being profitable since their network reach was fairly low. They had high overhead, but low per school distribution compared to other power networks.

3. Lastly, CBS is gigantic compared to the CW and it isn't close. We were first by household reach (tied with Fox), and second by revenue (behind ESPN, 11b vs 9b). The CW isn't in the ballpark for revenue or outreach. It isn't that CBS or the CW are the factor here. The product has to make money. Also, CBS owns a good chunk part of the CW.

The CW for football did really well, especially the PAC games. Often outdrew FS1 regardless of who they showed, and often outdrew ESPN2 games which is crazy. Since ESPN 2 is always on by default at sports bars across the country when the CW defintely is not by default. Of courseas CBS sports network isn't listed.

Not counting regular CBS, that is a whole different ballgame, but rarely have MW games been elevated to that.

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Your argument reminds of this clip from an old Chris Rock Bit.

When you dont make much money, being able to double it actually matters!

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtube.com

Making a guess here.

PAC will split media partners between CW and TNT.

CW will carry football. TNT basketball.

Total media package value.

9.3 million per school.

 

[dcut03]

I preface it by always saying assuming numbers. The actual numbers don't matter it's the share percentage that matters. I use 5 million to make the math easier.

And you proved my point.

The argument that UNLV would increase the media value of the PAC is false. They would currently just hurt it less than any new addition.

Using your numbers.

Boise 7 SDSU 6 CSU 5 FSU 5 USU 3.5 Avg of 5.3 million. Add in UNLV it drops it to 5.03.

Now with the same numbers and giving mystery 8th member a
half share of 2.5 million instead of UNLV it only drops from 5.03 to 4.8 million.

To individually impact the media deal and swing it a full million dollars using your numbers UNLV would need to be worth approximately 10 million to a media partner on their own. Or 3 million more than Boise, 4 million more than SDSU. They aren't. Which is what I've said from the beginning.

That was 5 years ago. Things have changed significantly since then. There is general inflation, but media values have gone crazy above and beyond inflation. I used those numbers to show general value for the time since we knew what the payouts

I think currently BOISE/OSI/WAZZU can easily be over 12, the other top 3 be 9-10, and UNLV 8. Utah State maybe 5-6. And this is raw media value, not counting CFP payouts.

The other thing that you don't acknowledge is the WAR of UNLV. It isn't that UNLV at 8 mil is going to drive up payouts by itself, it is the fact that it replaces a school worth likely less than 2 mil. That swing is what makes UNLV potentially so valuable. If they already had their 8 we would be less valuable. As I showed with my math previously that swing could drive up payouts up to nearly a million per school by taking UNLV over a token flyer on a school that just isn't at the same caliber of the rest of the schools right now ( Like a Texas State).