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UCLA and Tennessee

I
rebswin2 said:
Not sure if UT is getting the better QB or not but UCLA is definitely getting the bigger headache with this family.Nico’s little brother who decommitted from UCLA on signing day to sign with Arkansas has now announced he is entering the portal and I assume heading to UCLA. Lavar Ball thinks this is ridiculous.
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I saw lil bro is now at UCLA also. LOL.

You coming out for that game?
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Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

Bullmastiff 1
Rebel1986 said:
You think I would lose that bet, and I think I wouldn't. We will leave it at that! As a side note, UNLV pulls in 2X-3X as much in football ticket revenue compared to SDSU this last season.
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UNLV's trajectory is rising. SDSU and UNLV are similiar in market sizes and market penetration. At this moment they would be valued similarly. Because a media partner would take into consideration whether or not UNLVs current trajectory is sustainable. Media companies are by and large risk adverse. UNLV with a mere two years of success poses some risk. UNLV'S basketball woes have to be considered as well.

I absolutely think UNLV will surpass SDSU in media value over the next few years. At this moment though I'm not sure they have. Either way it would be very close..

SDSU was absolutely on the BIG12s radar a few short years ago. UNLV wasn't. Two years of football success doesn't suddenly flip the entire script. UNLV has the highest media potential of anybody in the PAC/MWC but need a couple more years.

If UNLV was worth more than SDSU it would have been us that turned down a half share in the BIG 12 and not SDSU a few years ago.

Again gap closing may even be close to even.

Seriously just do the math...

At best the MWC can hope for 5 million per in a media deal. PAC likely around 8 maybe 9.

Let's say MWC media deal is 4 mil AAV.

Everybody gets a full share. (NIU likely not getting full for football only but I'm handing them one for ease of math)

9 x 4 = 36

Remember PAC In this exercise is getting 8 million per school. BOISE WSU OSU are propping up the deal and SDSU is only worth 7 million.

Back to MWC

I'm giving UNLV 7 million of the MWC 36.

Leaving me 29 million to divide between remaining 8 members.

That means every other school in the MWC is only worth 3.6 Million. (On average some might be worth 4 others 2)

Meaning UNLV is worth double every school in the MWC.

And again shows SDSU and UNLV are extremely close at this time.

Unless you think UNLV is worth 10 and everybody else in the MWC is worth around only 3.

If UNLV was worth 10 million we would have been the absolute top priority for the PAC. Over Memphis or Tulane. We wouldn't have added travel costs.
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Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

RebelinWA
Rebel1986 said:
If the travel cost is such a huge issue, how does Hawaii play their other sports in a minor conference and make it work financially? UNLV needs to take advantage of the extra football game allowed to help make up for any travel cost to the island.
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I’m pretty sure Hawaii is highly subsidized on their end because of their Hawaiian Airlines partnership. On all of their other sports mostly play in California. Their football team charters a Hawaiian Airlines plane for their players, but the bulk of their equipment and cargo is dumped in LA and trucked everywhere else.

For all other sports, they fly on regular Hawaiian flights to California.
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Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

Rebel1986
RebelinWA said:
1. The issue holding back Hawaii isn't market penetration OR size. Its larger than a lot of the teams in the Pac and MW in both regards. Its wholly the distance and the whopping cost of traveling all sports in and out of the island. You're thinking of football only.

2. I also wouldn't think too much about the Pac Network infrastructure. Its been shuttered, and the department completely laid off. It would be expensive to get it up and running. Also, while it was great for non football sports, it was awful for football itself. They had a lot of issues being profitable since their network reach was fairly low. They had high overhead, but low per school distribution compared to other power networks.

3. Lastly, CBS is gigantic compared to the CW and it isn't close. We were first by household reach (tied with Fox), and second by revenue (behind ESPN, 11b vs 9b). The CW isn't in the ballpark for revenue or outreach. It isn't that CBS or the CW are the factor here. The product has to make money. Also, CBS owns a good chunk part of the CW.
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If the travel cost is such a huge issue, how does Hawaii play their other sports in a minor conference and make it work financially? UNLV needs to take advantage of the extra football game allowed to help make up for any travel cost to the island.
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Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

Rebel1986
Bullmastiff 1 said:
I didn't include Hawaii in that model because I was talking about the old MWC contract and I don't know how they fit in with their Spectrum deal and what their money payout was.

I literally said SDSU had poor market penetration. As did UNLV until last year.

I said USU was small market.

I ramped up the numbers to prove a point that even inflated the PAC might struggle to reach 10 million.
.I also inflated the numbers because people keep saying UNLV would boost the PAC media. That simply isn't the case. Most likely if the PAC was getting an 8 million valuation the addition of UNLV would hold it there where as a Texas State or New Mexico State would bring down the AAV assuming all schools are getting an equal share.

If the PAC is being told their media deal is 9 million per and UNLV joins its not jumping to 10 million. Why? Because UNLV would have to be worth nearly 20 million on their own to move the AAC by a million dollars and they absolutely are not because if they were we would be talking about the BIG 12 schedule not the MWC and PAC.

You woild lose that bet. They would be worth around the same. I can assure of that. Over the next 3-5 years yes as of right now you would lose that bet. UNLV needs a couple more years of sustained success and see increases in viewership to be 'trusted' as a good bet for a media partner.

SDSU was set for the BIG12 a few years back. UNLV is still hopeful.

It's trending the other way now but not quite there just yet.
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You think I would lose that bet, and I think I wouldn't. We will leave it at that! As a side note, UNLV pulls in 2X-3X as much in football ticket revenue compared to SDSU this last season.
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Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

RebelinWA
dcut03 said:
1. I saw it on a live stream on Youtube when Harper announced they were staying the MW after we were offered. It was part of the Q and A session. I am trying to find the video, but it may not have been archived. But he said it, though he probably regretted saying that out loud. Part of the reason maybe it wasn't archived?

2. The true AAV for the MW was 3.6 million. It was raised to 5 after the CFP payouts.

Say the new target is 5 mil for the new MW and we will factor in inflation and the fact that media contracts for college sports have been ballooning significantly. The only schools I think are currently above that 5 mil value are UNLV and Air Force. Maybe Hawaii, but I don't totally buy that their value is as high as some are saying. If they were, they would have been a full member long ago. Yes you have to factor in travel, but if they were above the mean then I think it would have been worth it to everyone to have them as a full member.

Actual value? I honestly don't know. UTEP and NIU are coming from conferences making 750K or less per team, I doubt they are worth more than double that. Especially NIU as a part time member. SJSU doesn't have the fan support despite their market, so I think they are below the mean. UNM is probably around the mean, UNR similar, though maybe a bit lower. Wyoming, small market but decent fanbase, probably near the mean.

Here is the other thing, the same school may be worth more in the PAC than the MW. It is a better brand even in its new iteration, and when paired with the other teams, and on a channel that isn't CBS sports network that no one watches, then there can be more value. Considering the CW had good numbers last year, that isn't too far fetched. Also the PAC has their own network infrastructure that keeps costs down and allows higher payouts, at least when factoring in the CW portion of the deal.

Bottom line I think UNLV is worth well above the mean in the leftover MW, which is why they at least offered us so much more money to stay. Same with AFA. I think UNLV has raised their value over the last season. And the recent commitment to football with Mullen and having the highest coach's salary of all of the G5 by far makes them a low risk as a flavor of the month.
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1. The issue holding back Hawaii isn't market penetration OR size. Its larger than a lot of the teams in the Pac and MW in both regards. Its wholly the distance and the whopping cost of traveling all sports in and out of the island. You're thinking of football only.

2. I also wouldn't think too much about the Pac Network infrastructure. Its been shuttered, and the department completely laid off. It would be expensive to get it up and running. Also, while it was great for non football sports, it was awful for football itself. They had a lot of issues being profitable since their network reach was fairly low. They had high overhead, but low per school distribution compared to other power networks.

3. Lastly, CBS is gigantic compared to the CW and it isn't close. We were first by household reach (tied with Fox), and second by revenue (behind ESPN, 11b vs 9b). The CW isn't in the ballpark for revenue or outreach. It isn't that CBS or the CW are the factor here. The product has to make money. Also, CBS owns a good chunk part of the CW.
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Spring Departures

Bullmastiff 1
Hoopsnstuff said:
John Lewis is out. I posted on here a couple months ago that there were some players that transferred here just so they could have a spot for the spring. Their preferred schools didn't have room for them earlier in the year.

I know of two more players that fit the bill and will be entering shortly. Sad system we are in.
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Saw a bunch of offers go out for LBs over the last week. Should anything be read from that?
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Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

Bullmastiff 1
Rebel1986 said:
Not agreeing with the numbers. First Hawaii should be included, because they are part of the MWC, and one of the better markets. Air Force is a national brand and you are putting them near the bottom, while in truth they would most likely be in front of all but BSU. Utah State has a very small market, less than 1/4 of that of UNLV, when you include the loss of market to BYU and Utah. Fresno State may do well in football, but they have most likely the poorest market in the MWC, with the area mostly consisting of farming communities. While SDSU is in a large market, they have very little penetration, and based on current history, I would be willing to take a bet that any network would pay significantly more for UNLV that SDSU based on current
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I didn't include Hawaii in that model because I was talking about the old MWC contract and I don't know how they fit in with their Spectrum deal and what their money payout was.

I literally said SDSU had poor market penetration. As did UNLV until last year.

I said USU was small market.

I ramped up the numbers to prove a point that even inflated the PAC might struggle to reach 10 million.
.I also inflated the numbers because people keep saying UNLV would boost the PAC media. That simply isn't the case. Most likely if the PAC was getting an 8 million valuation the addition of UNLV would hold it there where as a Texas State or New Mexico State would bring down the AAV assuming all schools are getting an equal share.

If the PAC is being told their media deal is 9 million per and UNLV joins its not jumping to 10 million. Why? Because UNLV would have to be worth nearly 20 million on their own to move the AAC by a million dollars and they absolutely are not because if they were we would be talking about the BIG 12 schedule not the MWC and PAC.

You woild lose that bet. They would be worth around the same. I can assure of that. Over the next 3-5 years yes as of right now you would lose that bet. UNLV needs a couple more years of sustained success and see increases in viewership to be 'trusted' as a good bet for a media partner.

SDSU was set for the BIG12 a few years back. UNLV is still hopeful.

It's trending the other way now but not quite there just yet.
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Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

Rebel1986
Bullmastiff 1 said:
In no particular order the biggest factors in the media deal equations are..

Market size
Market penetration
Brand strength (Outside Market appeal)
Match ups (Premium opponents)
There's also packing of teams. Reno might be worth 3 mil but packed in the same conference as UNLV their value gets a bump.
Added Time zone.



If you did an evaluation on WSU /OSU three years ago they would have been worth significantly more because they were playing USC OREGON UTAH etc.

SDSU for example has poor tv numbers but has a big market size. I'll actually rephrase that, considering size of San Diego they don't draw as well as you would hope. Of real note SDSU has seen a big drop in season tickets sales.

The PACs three largest brands are in three of their 4 smallest markets.

Logan Utah gets lumped into the Salt Lake City market a bit but lets be honest that is Utes and even BYU country. Aggies overall tv numbers are pretty

poor.

I'll take a stab you tell me where I might be wrong. I'm not factoring in Hawaii since they were on Spectrum. I think MWC deal was 55 million. I need to get to where the 11 teams have an AAV of 5 million.

BOISE 9
CSU 6
SDSU 7
FRESNO 6
UNLV 6(More on that later)
WYO 3
UNR 4
UNM 2
AFA 4
USU 5
SJSU 3

(I think I got to 55)

Boise Brand carries a lot of weight.

CSU market size / potential.

SDSU Market size past success

Fresno Solid market size consistent performance

UNLV Great market upside but overall poor athletic performance until recently football success.

Wyo Loyal fan base small market.

UNR (Probably over valued them)

UNM Decent market poor football apathetic fan base for that sport

AFA hard to gage. Might have over valued them.

USU decent athletic performance smaller market.

SJSU Massive market..And nobody cares.

Point being Even if you valued UNLV at 8 million and the PAC was seeking a media deal 8 million or more at best UNLV would help it tread water. Wouldn't increase the media package.
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Not agreeing with the numbers. First Hawaii should be included, because they are part of the MWC, and one of the better markets. Air Force is a national brand and you are putting them near the bottom, while in truth they would most likely be in front of all but BSU. Utah State has a very small market, less than 1/4 of that of UNLV, when you include the loss of market to BYU and Utah. Fresno State may do well in football, but they have most likely the poorest market in the MWC, with the area mostly consisting of farming communities. While SDSU is in a large market, they have very little penetration, and based on current history, I would be willing to take a bet that any network would pay significantly more for UNLV that SDSU based on current history.
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UCLA and Tennessee

rebswin2
bcvegaspt2 said:
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I think that Tennessee ended up with the better QB in the long run.
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Not sure if UT is getting the better QB or not but UCLA is definitely getting the bigger headache with this family.Nico’s little brother who decommitted from UCLA on signing day to sign with Arkansas has now announced he is entering the portal and I assume heading to UCLA. Lavar Ball thinks this is ridiculous.
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