1. I saw it on a live stream on Youtube when Harper announced they were staying the MW after we were offered. It was part of the Q and A session. I am trying to find the video, but it may not have been archived. But he said it, though he probably regretted saying that out loud. Part of the reason maybe it wasn't archived?
2. The true AAV for the MW was 3.6 million. It was raised to 5 after the CFP payouts.
Say the new target is 5 mil for the new MW and we will factor in inflation and the fact that media contracts for college sports have been ballooning significantly. The only schools I think are currently above that 5 mil value are UNLV and Air Force. Maybe Hawaii, but I don't totally buy that their value is as high as some are saying. If they were, they would have been a full member long ago. Yes you have to factor in travel, but if they were above the mean then I think it would have been worth it to everyone to have them as a full member.
Actual value? I honestly don't know. UTEP and NIU are coming from conferences making 750K or less per team, I doubt they are worth more than double that. Especially NIU as a part time member. SJSU doesn't have the fan support despite their market, so I think they are below the mean. UNM is probably around the mean, UNR similar, though maybe a bit lower. Wyoming, small market but decent fanbase, probably near the mean.
Here is the other thing, the same school may be worth more in the PAC than the MW. It is a better brand even in its new iteration, and when paired with the other teams, and on a channel that isn't CBS sports network that no one watches, then there can be more value. Considering the CW had good numbers last year, that isn't too far fetched. Also the PAC has their own network infrastructure that keeps costs down and allows higher payouts, at least when factoring in the CW portion of the deal.
Bottom line I think UNLV is worth well above the mean in the leftover MW, which is why they at least offered us so much more money to stay. Same with AFA. I think UNLV has raised their value over the last season. And the recent commitment to football with Mullen and having the highest coach's salary of all of the G5 by far makes them a low risk as a flavor of the month.
In no particular order the biggest factors in the media deal equations are..
Market size
Market penetration
Brand strength (Outside Market appeal)
Match ups (Premium opponents)
There's also packing of teams. Reno might be worth 3 mil but packed in the same conference as UNLV their value gets a bump.
Added Time zone.
If you did an evaluation on WSU /OSU three years ago they would have been worth significantly more because they were playing USC OREGON UTAH etc.
SDSU for example has poor tv numbers but has a big market size. I'll actually rephrase that, considering size of San Diego they don't draw as well as you would hope. Of real note SDSU has seen a big drop in season tickets sales.
The PACs three largest brands are in three of their 4 smallest markets.
Logan Utah gets lumped into the Salt Lake City market a bit but lets be honest that is Utes and even BYU country. Aggies overall tv numbers are pretty
poor.
I'll take a stab you tell me where I might be wrong. I'm not factoring in Hawaii since they were on Spectrum. I think MWC deal was 55 million. I need to get to where the 11 teams have an AAV of 5 million.
BOISE 9
CSU 6
SDSU 7
FRESNO 6
UNLV 6(More on that later)
WYO 3
UNR 4
UNM 2
AFA 4
USU 5
SJSU 3
(I think I got to 55)
Boise Brand carries a lot of weight.
CSU market size / potential.
SDSU Market size past success
Fresno Solid market size consistent performance
UNLV Great market upside but overall poor athletic performance until recently football success.
Wyo Loyal fan base small market.
UNR (Probably over valued them)
UNM Decent market poor football apathetic fan base for that sport
AFA hard to gage. Might have over valued them.
USU decent athletic performance smaller market.
SJSU Massive market..And nobody cares.
Point being Even if you valued UNLV at 8 million and the PAC was seeking a media deal 8 million or more at best UNLV would help it tread water. Wouldn't increase the media package.