You think I would lose that bet, and I think I wouldn't. We will leave it at that! As a side note, UNLV pulls in 2X-3X as much in football ticket revenue compared to SDSU this last season.
UNLV's trajectory is rising. SDSU and UNLV are similiar in market sizes and market penetration. At this moment they would be valued similarly. Because a media partner would take into consideration whether or not UNLVs current trajectory is sustainable. Media companies are by and large risk adverse. UNLV with a mere two years of success poses some risk. UNLV'S basketball woes have to be considered as well.
I absolutely think UNLV will surpass SDSU in media value over the next few years. At this moment though I'm not sure they have. Either way it would be very close..
SDSU was absolutely on the BIG12s radar a few short years ago. UNLV wasn't. Two years of football success doesn't suddenly flip the entire script. UNLV has the highest media potential of anybody in the PAC/MWC but need a couple more years.
If UNLV was worth more than SDSU it would have been us that turned down a half share in the BIG 12 and not SDSU a few years ago.
Again gap closing may even be close to even.
Seriously just do the math...
At best the MWC can hope for 5 million per in a media deal. PAC likely around 8 maybe 9.
Let's say MWC media deal is 4 mil AAV.
Everybody gets a full share. (NIU likely not getting full for football only but I'm handing them one for ease of math)
9 x 4 = 36
Remember PAC In this exercise is getting 8 million per school. BOISE WSU OSU are propping up the deal and SDSU is only worth 7 million.
Back to MWC
I'm giving UNLV 7 million of the MWC 36.
Leaving me 29 million to divide between remaining 8 members.
That means every other school in the MWC is only worth 3.6 Million. (On average some might be worth 4 others 2)
Meaning UNLV is worth double every school in the MWC.
And again shows SDSU and UNLV are extremely close at this time.
Unless you think UNLV is worth 10 and everybody else in the MWC is worth around only 3.
If UNLV was worth 10 million we would have been the absolute top priority for the PAC. Over Memphis or Tulane. We wouldn't have added travel costs.