Exactly this.
In all of the “arguments” we’ve had on here surrounding UNLVs decision, both sides are factoring in assumptions of unknowns and “ifs”.
There’s just way too much we don’t know and way too much to still play out. We may never know the full truth about the why.
I personally don’t believe UNLV REALLY had any option.
If you put both options/offers on paper, there were WAY more unknowns by going to the new PAC and WAY more “knowns” by staying in the MW. The “gamble” wasn’t staying, it was joining the PAC.
I think there is a fair share of unknowns both ways.
The factor that is often missed is if UNLV excepted the invite then that is a really solid conference. Payouts would have probably been pretty good. Unsure if they still go for Utah State if we said yes, but it is safe to say they would have eventually and they didn't balk at the offer.
UNLV didn't know the poaching fees would be aggressively contested, they should have known that the exit fees would be.
The weird part of all of this is that the estimated payouts have likely changed since. UNLV's value probably went up a couple of pegs,
Exit fees are the only up front cost for UNLV, and it was reported that the PAC was offering 6 mil in help. That is not bad at all.
Sure having up to 14 mill up front, vs facing some level of exit fee does create a potential issue. But the way these are negotiated and often paid off over time, it is very possible that UNLV would making more per year with paying off their fee included on the ledger. No money up front though.
I think UNLV could afford to jump. It isn't that daunting of an ask. The MW wasn't that much safer. Sure it was more likely to actually become a conference, but the type of payouts was very much an unknown.
