Hawaii really doesn't count until they finish their new stadium which is currently scheduled for some time in 2028. They averaged around 25K+ before the old stadium was forced to shut down. Just in the last couple of years they expanded their temporary stadium from around 9,000 the first year, to 15,000, and then they just finished expanding to 17,000 in the middle of 2024. Each season they have added more fans back, but have not yet caught up to the seat additions during 2024.
Air Force has a total of 4,000 students.
My expectation is the UTEP fan support will take a significant jump when playing in the MWC.
I expect Oregon State will slowly drop in crowd support. Currently they have some decent home and home games that had been scheduled prior to the old PAC following apart. It will be a lot harder to get the better teams to play home and home now that they are in a revised PAC.
Everything else you wrote make sense.
You are correct that the media do not want to see empty stadiums, but in the case of UNLV, they have worked to fill in the first level then the second, so the crowds now look great on TV! I believe their is a very good chance that UNLV will be at or near the top in attendance of the teams listed above.