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dcut03 · 2025-06-30T16:27:54-0600

Bullmastiff 1 said:
Why would Big12 suggest it though?

Because the free pass with the PAC isn't in writing yet. Officially it wasn't in the language when they agreed on terms initially, but since then the MW had that in their cause, and they said they were going to do it too. But again, not in writing. Not sure if that has officially been confirmed with the new media contract or not.

That and I think they want us to be good. If we went with the PAC, there are more opportunities to lose and perhaps lose momentum and even fan support.

Being the big fish in a small pond for a few years. Rack up league titles, still be a Playoff contender and still have a chance to make it if Boise or a PAC winner has too many losses, then I can see that path.

The problem on UNLV side, they will likely be losing money by staying put.

Maybe it is the perception of bailing on a new conference after a few years?

I can see possibly a few reasons, what I don't understand is why UNLV did when they did it if it had nothing to do with the Big 12. Very shortsighted if that is the case and it cost them millions.

Hoopsnstuff · 2025-06-30T16:24:14-0600

LVRebel2000 said:
from your perspective, is Colandrea the odds on favorite for the job right now?

Yes

LVRebel2000 · 2025-06-30T16:23:07-0600

Hoopsnstuff said:
The team isnt going for that...similar to how they werent going for Sluka and were overjoyed when HMW took over. I understand your point though, but Jake is not a better QB than Colandrea in any way. Was with a better and more well rounded team last season that helped in a lot of aspects. Colandrea would do more in that BYU system too.

from your perspective, is Colandrea the odds on favorite for the job right now?

Bullmastiff 1 · 2025-06-30T16:18:54-0600

dcut03 said:
My biggest issue is signing the GOR that acknowledges that they are OK with any additional funds that come our way, even if it is zero. Why sign such a document WHEN we did. No reason.

Other than perhaps having a guaranteed clean break with the MW and the Big 12 suggested it.

Why would Big12 suggest it though?

Bullmastiff 1 · 2025-06-30T16:17:58-0600

dcut03 said:
Can't use the ESPN 2 number as a real point of reference. It was the 3rd lowest watched game on that channel out of 72 games or something like that last year. And it was a pretty big time game in terms on FCS. ESPN 2 gets baseline ratings. I am sure there are at least 100k sports bars that have it on around the country by default. Some places are probably using more than 1 box to show it on multiple screens. Comparing any ESPN2 game to a Tru TV game isn't a true comparison if we are talking about media value.

Problem is, NDSU does not have many games that we CAN use. Like FS1 games in similar time slots. Streaming numbers aren't public.

Dude look at those MWC numbers. 28k for SJSU? Our biggest market got 28k for a road game.

You don't think NDSU can get 28k? Or 50k?

Hoopsnstuff · 2025-06-30T16:15:47-0600

Masked_rebel said:
Id kick the tires... I think our QB room is good and Colandrea might be a good QB, but Jake is bigger and has better stats, better runner with a ton of upside...

The team isnt going for that...similar to how they werent going for Sluka and were overjoyed when HMW took over. I understand your point though, but Jake is not a better QB than Colandrea in any way. Was with a better and more well rounded team last season that helped in a lot of aspects. Colandrea would do more in that BYU system too.

Bullmastiff 1 · 2025-06-30T16:15:29-0600

Rebel1986 said:
I am not sure it would ever pencil out for La Tech to leave CUSA for the SBC? Sunbelt conference media contract $1,000,000 per year through 2031. CUSA conference media contract $750,000 through 2027. Most likely the revised CUSA contract will be similar to the of the Sunbelt in 2027. The cost to leave the CUSA is between $1.5-3 million. Depending on the new contract in 2027 it would take La Tech 6-10 years or longer just to break even. If in 2027 CUSA can't work out a media deal, or it drops way down in funds, then La Tech could walk out with a much smaller or no buyout to leave CUSA.

Already rumors that La Tech is top target.

Sun Belt & Louisiana Tech Conference Realignment: Why The Bulldogs Could Be Departing Conference USA

Louisiana Tech may be the next team the Sun Belt looks to add if Texas State leaves. Here's why LA Tech would be at the top of the list.

herosports.com

CUSA is in real trouble.

Rebel1986 · 2025-06-30T16:00:46-0600

My guess regarding UNLV is that they are betting on themselves being able to get UNLV into the Big12 within the next few years. Now both football and basketball need to hit home runs this year to push the Big 12 to open a spot up.

Rebel1986 · 2025-06-30T15:54:47-0600

Bullmastiff 1 said:
Possibly. Id be all for it.

MWC doesn't 'need' more members. With 8 full plus NIU football only scheduling for football is good. 8 conference 4 OOC...

I know a lot of people argue expanding dilutes the product and there is some merit to that.

I just don't think Gloria stays put though.

If you can add NDSU and Sac State I think you do it. Adds another California market. And top FCS schools in NDSU.

She could attempt to circle back to Sam Houston State again depending on mediation to get a second Texas School.

CUSA, is about to lose La Tech to the SBC to replace Texas State.

If I'm the SBC I'm kicking tires on Western KY and Liberty as well. If those schools were to bolt CUSA would be all but dead.

MWC could pass on NDSU (I don't think they should) add NMSU and Sam Houston and drive the final nail in CUSA. Which would be kinda sad to be honest. That conference has been gutted so many times.

I am not sure it would ever pencil out for La Tech to leave CUSA for the SBC? Sunbelt conference media contract $1,000,000 per year through 2031. CUSA conference media contract $750,000 through 2027. Most likely the revised CUSA contract will be similar to the of the Sunbelt in 2027. The cost to leave the CUSA is between $1.5-3 million. Depending on the new contract in 2027 it would take La Tech 6-10 years or longer just to break even. If in 2027 CUSA can't work out a media deal, or it drops way down in funds, then La Tech could walk out with a much smaller or no buyout to leave CUSA.

dcut03 · 2025-06-30T15:41:23-0600

Bullmastiff 1 said:
Here are actual TV viewership numbers.

NDSU VS South Dakota State on ESPN2 174,000 views.

That was for a regular season game.

I'll concede that ESPN 2 is going to give you a bump over TRU TV or FS1 in potential viewership.

Here are the numbers for 3 future MWC matchups.

SJSU @ RENO 28k views TruTv

UNM @ AFA 52k views TruTv

RENO @ AFA FS1 98K views FS1

The SJSU number should send massive red flags. There is your largest market having a pretty good season on the road and you drew 28k eyeballs.

Let's say ESPN 2 has to double your potential viewers to for the Reno vs AFA game to beat NDSU VS South Dakota State.

That NDSU VS South Dakota State game did nearly 6x the viewership of SJSU VS RENO. 6 Times...

It did over 3x the viewership of UNM and AFA. And AFA is supposed to be one of our flagship brands.

Its a small sample size and all that is available but in the only three examples I could find for comparison the current MWC teams performed very poorly.

Adding NDSU would not 'tank' our media deal. The media deal is already tanked with or without UNLV. Would it take a hit without it. Of course. But it would be negligible. Something like down from 4mil AAV to 3.5AAV. And that would be after adding schools like NDSU and a Sac State.

Can't use the ESPN 2 number as a real point of reference. It was the 3rd lowest watched game on that channel out of 72 games or something like that last year. And it was a pretty big time game in terms on FCS. ESPN 2 gets baseline ratings. I am sure there are at least 100k sports bars that have it on around the country by default. Some places are probably using more than 1 box to show it on multiple screens. Comparing any ESPN2 game to a Tru TV game isn't a true comparison if we are talking about media value.

Problem is, NDSU does not have many games that we CAN use. Like FS1 games in similar time slots. Streaming numbers aren't public.

LVRebel2000 · 2025-06-30T15:28:51-0600

I haven't been paying that close of attention to the buyout and the details. It seems like a lot of the forums have moved over to On3, but others haven't, including UNLV, as far as I can tell.

Anyone have any insight on what to expect here? Is Rebel-net now part of On-3? Or breaking away and no longer part of either?

dcut03 · 2025-06-30T15:27:26-0600

Bullmastiff 1 said:
My biggest issue on UNLV staying is taking a percentage of anything VS making Gloria commit to hard numbers across the board.

My biggest issue is signing the GOR that acknowledges that they are OK with any additional funds that come our way, even if it is zero. Why sign such a document WHEN we did. No reason.

Other than perhaps having a guaranteed clean break with the MW and the Big 12 suggested it.

Masked_rebel · 2025-06-30T15:10:10-0600

Hoopsnstuff said:
Curious. Do you want Mullen to reach out to him? Colandrea not your cup of tea?

Id kick the tires... I think our QB room is good and Colandrea might be a good QB, but Jake is bigger and has better stats, better runner with a ton of upside...

Hoopsnstuff · 2025-06-30T14:52:10-0600

Boston Rebel 2 said:
BYU QB Retzlaff intends to transfer, sources say

Jake Retzlaff, who is facing a suspension after admitting to premarital sex during his response to a lawsuit alleging he raped a woman, is planning to transfer, sources said.

www.espn.com

I wonder what the market will be for him this late in the game? Still probably out of reach for us?

Curious. Do you want Mullen to reach out to him? Colandrea not your cup of tea?

Masked_rebel · 2025-06-30T14:27:49-0600

dcut03 said:
Considering FCS schools making the jump almost always struggle, and they always jump to conferences that are much worse than the MW, even a gutted MW.

Not saying that it couldn't happen, it most definitely could, but expecting them to dominate or even compete for a championship would be a bit of a tall ask.

Which is why I am against adding them, or any FCS team for that matter. Historically it is a really tough transition.

Other things to think about. They are almost always viewed as a cupcake when playing FBS teams. THey are often looking at the most vanilla of game plans and they can catch teams sleeping a little. Not to discredit their wins, because they have been good enough to do that, but it's not like they have gotten the same prep that a Boise would get.

UC Davis should start really competing in order to get an official invite, and honestly they should prove their worth in the Subelt or something. Same thing with GCU if they field a football team.

I agree. FCS teams will struggle and its silly to think that they wont finish near the bottom. The MWC might not be the same old MWC, but its still better than Sunbelt or CUSA and even with their past success, they go from being the top of the heap with recruiting at FCS and facilities at FCS to bottom of the pile in FBS. Its not a straight forward or they wouldve done so years ago.

Bullmastiff 1 · 2025-06-30T13:47:35-0600

Couev said:
I haven't confirmed that but it sounds right, which makes it extra weird that they haven't won a game over an FBS team since 2016. And it wasn't like they were rolling into a lot of high profile games. The combined win percentage on those 6 P4 wins was 0.341 and included 3 last place P4 teams.

In the last 10 years they're 1-2 against FBS (and also P4). And a 0.333 winning percentage isn't nearly as impressive. Hell, if I change the period for the stats to the last 9 years they're 0-2. Do you think the last 9 years is more pertinent than the last 15? Or is the last 5?

I do think they'd acclimate pretty quickly, and they are the premier FCS team of all-time. But i think the transition year would put them in the bottom third of MWC in 2026. You disagree, but neither of us will ever know!

Actually think we may see it...

Gator 82 · 2025-06-30T13:43:12-0600

Couev said:
I haven't confirmed that but it sounds right, which makes it extra weird that they haven't won a game over an FBS team since 2016. And it wasn't like they were rolling into a lot of high profile games. The combined win percentage on those 6 P4 wins was 0.341 and included 3 last place P4 teams.

In the last 10 years they're 1-2 against FBS (and also P4). And a 0.333 winning percentage isn't nearly as impressive. Hell, if I change the period for the stats to the last 9 years they're 0-2. Do you think the last 9 years is more pertinent than the last 15? Or is the last 5?

I do think they'd acclimate pretty quickly, and they are the premier FCS team of all-time. But i think the transition year would put them in the bottom third of MWC in 2026. You disagree, but neither of us will ever know!

I dont disagree completely, which is why I said that I think they would be a top 4 or 5 team in the current version of the MWC. Let’s take last year’s MWC for example. After UNLV and Boise State, there was a real drop off in quality. Take CSU, CSU lost to Colorado in Ft. Collins by a score of 28-9. That same Colorado team 2 weeks earlier beats NDSU in Boulder 31-26.

76RunninRebel · 2025-06-30T13:39:08-0600

Bullmastiff 1 said:
My biggest issue on UNLV staying is taking a percentage of anything VS making Gloria commit to hard numbers across the board.

Exactly! They should have put a minimum number that they would be ok with and that way if the money came in to low they would have an out with any legal problem! I just don't understand why they would sign something like this not knowing what the final money number would be! Either they are really stupid or they know that they are leaving for the Big 12 within 5/6 years. That would be the only way that it would make sense to sign such a contract! Supposedly they had multiple conversations with Big 12 before they signed that Grant of Rights with MW. If they were advised to stay put by Yorkman then I understand but if not your taking a big risk! There would be a lot of pressure for mainly football and to a lesser degree basketball to win at a high level, no down years during the 5 years of MW contract!

dcut03 · 2025-06-30T13:35:52-0600

Masked_rebel said:
I think thats because they wanted the Pac 12 invite all along and played it into a significant increase in media share...
Pac 12 wasnt/isnt willing to pay exit fees. They are loaning the money to their new invitees, not covering the costs from their coffers. The only fee they're really concerned about is the poaching agreement because that comes out of their pockets directly. They didnt think they needed to pay exit fees for programs which is why Tulane and Memphis both said no thanks. All the programs entering the Pac will be without probably 2 years worth of $$ distribution. With the House settlement opening up thats a huge chunk of cash that could significantly hurt the competitive sides of CSU/SDSU/Fresno even though theyve all committed to participating. Even if UNLV makes less money per season, in intermediate future, theyre well positioned for being competitive and striving for that P4 invite, which has always been the target.

They have offered 6 million in the past. Is it a stretch that they would offer the 7-11 that exit fees will likely be negotiated down to?

Take TX state even at a half share, which is double their current worth, or take UNLV that is probably near the mean of their contract right now. That is a lot more money to spread around, nearly 1-2 mil per school per year. a 6 million dollar delta over 6 years is probably worth the 11 million up front costs.

Loyal Coug1 · 2025-06-30T13:33:51-0600

Went to my Coug board this morning and it is now On3 Rivals. And the message boards are gone!

Edit - maged to sign on to On3 with my rivals login email. Found my message board, no posts, no threads. Won't let me post because I have "insufficient privileges". even though I'm a paying Rivals subscriber. So I have cancelled my Rivals membership. If this board goes, away, it's been fun and maybe see some of you on the WCS board.

Sports Forum

A place to discuss issues relating to College Sports, specifically West Coast colleges.

www.wcsboard.com

dcut03 · 2025-06-30T13:31:29-0600

Considering FCS schools making the jump almost always struggle, and they always jump to conferences that are much worse than the MW, even a gutted MW.

Not saying that it couldn't happen, it most definitely could, but expecting them to dominate or even compete for a championship would be a bit of a tall ask.

Which is why I am against adding them, or any FCS team for that matter. Historically it is a really tough transition.

Other things to think about. They are almost always viewed as a cupcake when playing FBS teams. THey are often looking at the most vanilla of game plans and they can catch teams sleeping a little. Not to discredit their wins, because they have been good enough to do that, but it's not like they have gotten the same prep that a Boise would get.

UC Davis should start really competing in order to get an official invite, and honestly they should prove their worth in the Subelt or something. Same thing with GCU if they field a football team.

Couev · 2025-06-30T13:13:46-0600

Gator 82 said:
Over the last 15 years, NDSU has a better record over Power Conference teams than almost every current or former MWC team.

I haven't confirmed that but it sounds right, which makes it extra weird that they haven't won a game over an FBS team since 2016. And it wasn't like they were rolling into a lot of high profile games. The combined win percentage on those 6 P4 wins was 0.341 and included 3 last place P4 teams.

In the last 10 years they're 1-2 against FBS (and also P4). And a 0.333 winning percentage isn't nearly as impressive. Hell, if I change the period for the stats to the last 9 years they're 0-2. Do you think the last 9 years is more pertinent than the last 15? Or is the last 5?

I do think they'd acclimate pretty quickly, and they are the premier FCS team of all-time. But i think the transition year would put them in the bottom third of MWC in 2026. You disagree, but neither of us will ever know!

Bullmastiff 1 · 2025-06-30T12:54:22-0600

reagan21 said:
Joint motion to dismiss means settlement

Stay in your lane buddy...

This isn't 18th century Agrarian Law.

And no I don't want to see your awards from Army.

reagan21 · 2025-06-30T12:17:13-0600

Masked_rebel said:
Civil case- not criminal... no idea about the details of the case in its entirety- it was dismissed with both parties agreeing to jointly dismiss case- but at BYU he was in violation of the Honor Code due to this case and subject to a minimum 7 game suspension or possible expulsion.
he's is going to get calls.

Joint motion to dismiss means settlement

Bullmastiff 1 · 2025-06-30T12:15:42-0600

Hey Reb 17 said:
NIU travel partner…

Possibly. Id be all for it.

MWC doesn't 'need' more members. With 8 full plus NIU football only scheduling for football is good. 8 conference 4 OOC...

I know a lot of people argue expanding dilutes the product and there is some merit to that.

I just don't think Gloria stays put though.

If you can add NDSU and Sac State I think you do it. Adds another California market. And top FCS schools in NDSU.

She could attempt to circle back to Sam Houston State again depending on mediation to get a second Texas School.

CUSA, is about to lose La Tech to the SBC to replace Texas State.

If I'm the SBC I'm kicking tires on Western KY and Liberty as well. If those schools were to bolt CUSA would be all but dead.

MWC could pass on NDSU (I don't think they should) add NMSU and Sam Houston and drive the final nail in CUSA. Which would be kinda sad to be honest. That conference has been gutted so many times.

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