Good points here.
A couple of things though, I don't think it would have affected the Mullen hire. Let's just say that his contract may not have used any of the funds heading our way to finance it, meaning that it was done with nearly all outside help. It is no secret that Harper said he will be looking for outside help for the Odom extension, and by extension Mullen. Which is the smart thing, because none of that money is guaranteed. And 14 mil of that is tied to poaching fees that could be thrown out entirely.
Where it could be more of a factor is a new Basketball coach. I think it will be harder to get outside money for that, just because the fan support has been so low.
As for estimating exit fees, who knows how to look at that. Truth is the MW's fees are so high compared to the national average. They are basically 3 times the best media year, when the standard rate has been 2 years of the base rate (with a 2 year warning).
The recent 4 departures from the AAC settled for 2 years of the base media value.
The pac 12's fees were less than 1/2 of one year media value, and THAT number got reduced to 65%
When OU and Texas left the Big 12, they were on the hook for 160 mil or 80 mil a piece which I believe 2 years of their media revenue or pretty close to it, it was agreed at 100 mil, which is 62.5% of their fees.
If you look at the distribution, it looks like the MW was expecting a reduction of exit fees to 11 mil per school or less. Which would be the remaining base media value per school ( not counting the bonuses that Boise received). 55 mil in poaching + 55 mil in exit fees ( 5 x 11) = the total MAX distribution for the MOR of 110 mil.
I think a maximum of 11 mil per school is somewhat safe, since it certainly seems that what the MW was expecting/budgeting using their own numbers of distribution.
Throw in the 6 mil of help from the PAC, 5 mil or less isn't too bad. Paying 5 vs getting 14 is a 19 mil swing for sure up front. Assuming the poaching fees hold up in full (which I pretty much am). The rest of the payment is somewhat neglible. I think it is safe to say that the PAC will get more than 1.8 mil above what the MW will get.
So breaking even on your investment to the PAC won't take very long. It could be in the first year. Making up the 14 mil? That could take a few years more, but the point where total money made in the PAC breaks even and then surpassed could be pretty soon.
We may need that money now to fire and hire a basketball coach.
You could be right about external money being there for Mullen… so MAYBE you can exclude the downside on that aspect, though there was no hard cost associated with it.
But I’m not sure where you come up with “getting $14 million vs paying $5million” and having it be a $19 million swing…
I know where you’re getting the $5million, but you’re basing that on a starting number of $16 million per school. Everything I’ve read has that number as $18 million. If as you say (and I think that’s safe) the number in the MOU is based on $11 million per school then that cost is $7 million and not $5 million. Not a monster difference, but a difference nonetheless.
But the $14 million?
If as you say, the poaching fees hold up, and the exit fees get negotiated down to $11 million per school, then you’re at $110 million…
Per the MOU here are the distributions and their order:
1st $61 million - UNLV gets 24.5%=$14,950,000
Next $18 million conference “recruiting reserve”
Next $21 million- UNLV gets 24.5% =$5,145,000
(Pretty sure that’s where the annual payments of $1.5-$1.8 come in)
There’s $100 million.
After that the MW pays legal fees, then any remaining funds get split with all members at 16% and Hawaii gets 6%.
So right there you’ve got $20million + the $11million settled exit fee - $6million in assistance from the PAC and you’re at a $25 million swing.
That’s $4million per year over the course of any new 6 year deal you might get with the PAC and as of right now I don’t think they’re gonna get that.
