TimothyC3 said:

I don't know if is true of not.

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Couev said:

I think if they would have included us with the breakaway 4 initially, my rational brain would agree with you. but we were the 7th choice at best and would be getting a worse deal than the other teams we came over with. We also would have to explain to the board of regents why we needed to go another 8 figures in debt on the hope that we break even for that investment in 10+ years.

And that's not even including the things like not getting the CFP disbursement, not getting any media money for 2 years (the MWC contract is brutal for that), and not getting equal voting representation on the conference board. Maybe it's hubris, but that's a little too much of my pride to swallow.

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Couev said:

You say potential, but then you want to reference a guy that's been gone for 6 years. You're already asking me to do all the uphill pedaling in your comparison. But that's okay.

Troy Calhoun at AFA in a 9 year period (Rocky Long Tenure Length) had 10 wins per season at the same clip more recently than SDSU, and if you lower the threshold to 9 wins he actually outperformed Long in 9 seasons. The problem with the academies though is that there is a problem sustaining talent so he had more sub .500 seasons. But there's at least one guy that's done it and more recently than any sustained success at SDSU--so you should be able to at least think of one with a little imagination!

Do I have to come up with someone better than Sonny Lubick or Chris Peterson now? Gary Patterson? Lavell Edwards?

I just think that the gap between how the breakaway schools have performed in the last 10 years and how the remaining schools is a little closer than some people care to admit.

Boise has been the class of the conference for a long time now. I don't think anyone left in the MWC compares to their pedigree and track record. I really think they're better than Wazzu and OSU as far as pedigree and consistancy.

Fresno I would probably put at tier 2 along with UNLV and Air Force. I do think that getting DeBoer and Tedford back to back helped them stay relevant--but I think they're on a downward trend now. I think Skipper will put up ~.500 numbers. I think UNLV is also recently good but will only maintain that momentum if we hold onto Odom.

Wyoming has been consitantly better than CSU over the last 10 years. Wyoming has had a winning record 7 out of the last 10 years (though it looks like the new staff might struggle). CSU's last winning season was 2017 and has 3 winning season in the last 10. CSU is much closer recently to Hawaiiand looking at a 10 year period even UNR is better.

SJSU and Utah State both have 3 winning season in their last 10. SJSU has 2 MWC championships vs 1 for USU. Utah State's last winning record was 2021, SJSU was last year. I'd give the slight nod to SJSU.

The biggest difference is how much better Wazzu and OSU are than our next tier--which is probably UNR and Hawai'i--but lets not pretend like Oregon State is a juggernaut. 3 winning season in the last 10 in the PAC and they lost the coach that had all 3. Wazzu's history is better though Dickert hasn't shown that he can keep a ship heading in the right direction, and they've had a bit of a collapse after the first 4 games both of his seasons.

I think that the PAC is going to be a better football conference regardless because they got rid of the worst parts of the MWC. With Gonzaga they're going to be probably one of the top 7 basketball conferences. Assuming they can get another football school and don't just fold, that is. The dead weight of the MWC is a lot to carry, but lots of people have still had success despite that, and have had several schools get promoted to P4 conferences despite the dead weight.

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Boston Rebel 2 said:

We may not have to wait a few years we may know in 6 months. If Odom leaves because Tarleton State doesn’t appeal to him then we lost.

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dcut03 said:

But the PAC 12 will be better. Better in football, basketball, and payouts. By a significant amount. And they wanted us, and really needed us for a while. Did we shut the door too soon. My rational brain says yes.

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

We'll know in a few years.

Nobody should be claiming any type of victory at this point. Saying UNLV 100% made the right or wrong call.

Way to early..

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

SDSU is bad that year but let's talk potential.

What remaining teams in the MWC would you say have the ability to reach the levels of SDSU under Rocky Long.

I don't think there is one outside of UNLV.

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

Everything is fine. All going to plan.

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Couev said:

I understand that sentiment, but I don't think it's a real world solution. Let's say that they offered us the same deal they offered to the AAC schools. 2.5 million towards exit fees and 100% media rights sharing. That means not only are we going to have to cover 15.5 million, but there will be 2 years where we don't get any media money from the MWC. So that's 25.5 million in the hole at a moment where we desperately need to extend Odom, may have to consider buying out KK's remaining year AND pay for a new MBB coach, and consider extending/giving a raise to Lindy for the WBB. To join a conference where we won't have full voting rights and won't be getting the CFP disbursement for at least 2 years as that was another rider on the PAC offer to Memphis. Instead we get an extra 25 million (10-14 upfront) minimal from the exit fees, plus an extra 1.8 million estimated from the CFP and another nearly 2 million a year from the redistributed shares of the traitors for the next 2 years.

That's a net difference of at least 60 million dollars over the next 2 years. I don't see how we can ever make that call.

Even if the PAC gives 10 million a year (which I don't think it will), and we get as low as say 6 million a year for our deal it would take 12-15 years before we broke even.

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Rosegreen1 said:

The PAC isn’t an automatic playoff conference, though it pretends it is. We would have to fork up millions to make a move in exchange for zero power and leverage to join a very mediocre version of the PAC12.

It would have been more appealing had they not lowballed the AAC and their media footprint isn’t big at all. It is a regional conference that just added a basketball program to be full participant in media revenue. I don’t foresee the 10-15 million payout they claimed in a tv deal, maybe through ridiculous incentives but I don’t see how a media exec gets jazzed over the geographic footprint the PAC currently has.

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dcut03 said:

I was talking about the what if we didn't sign the agreement. Or If we signed with the PAC. I am not talking about now.
The PAC is most definitely not an option now. For sure.

I changed my post, hopefully that makes it more clear

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

I don't think PAC is option though. Our out was to explore P4 opportunities.

(Maybe Im reading your post wrong and what it is implying)

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dcut03 said:

A couple points about all of this.

By joining the PAC we effective cut ourselves off from the MW media payouts. That can be tough to swallow.
The weird factor with UNLV specifically is our coach, who is likely going to be sought after this season.
We could use the immediate money to extend him and more importantly jack up his buyout. That is what I hope happens. oO that does make the UNLV situation unique.
But joining the PAC with promises to increase his contract could work. Or try to use booster support to keep things afloat for the next 2 seasons. Not sure where Barry's head is at. How much he rather be at this level, full autonomy, good not ludicrous money, and honestly better shot at the playoff than most P4 jobs. But we likely can not extend him right now if we stop our payouts.

But there is another thing worth mentioning.
We could have NOT signed the agreement. Our stock and value is increasing by the minute. Sure it could stop at any time with our first loss. But in general it will increase with our schedule and our Friday games. Our TV numbers will crush this year.

In the meantime we could be playing hardball with the PAC instead of shutting the door on them to help with any fees. While also making regular calls to the Big 12. Basically we could have done exactly what Memphis did.

And about those fees. I will be shocked if it stays at 18 at the end of the day. And remember those are not due until we actually leave, and often can be paid off over time ( the AAC teams that just left are paying 3.8 per year until they get to their NEGOTIATED 18 mil from over 27.5 mil).

But the most likely number is 11 million, which will be withheld over the next 2 seasons from leaving now. And again THAT will likely be negotiated down some as well.

But I do think if we are truly shooting for the Big 12, our path is probably the best by getting paid up front, as long as we secure Odom and give us that increased buyout clause. That way we can still shoot for the moon with another P4 level coach by offering a p4 level salary.

This is still risky, and I don't hate our path. I love it in a weird way.

But the PAC 12 will be better. Better in football, basketball, and payouts. By a significant amount. And they wanted us, and really needed us for a while. Did we shut the door too soon. My rational brain says yes.

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