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CSU/USU suing MW over exit fees
- By oneepstein
- Rebel Football
- 188 Replies
Yeah… stupid Google AI was conflating San Diego State with South Dakota State. The San Diego Tribune however lists home attendance at 18,183 avg for the first 5 games of 2023… so who the hell knows. Based on the individual game numbers this past season it’s right at about 25,000, so yes you’re correct.Utah states had the biggest negative delta this past season with attendance. They lost their coach in a scandal and just hired a really good one. It is safe to say that they will likely get the same crowds they were getting or better soon.
These numbers show that SDSU has been averaging around 24K and these are 2 of the worst years they have had in a long time. Which brings me to this point outside of Boise, and maybe CSU, all of the other defectors had down years for them, but still had decent attendance.
Mountain West football attendance analysis: Biggest risers and fallers year-over-year
College football games hosted by Mountain West schools drew their largest average home crowds since 2013, albeit with a caveat. This year's non-Hawaii games drnevadasportsnet.com
I see the the new PAC as having 1 team of "fat" currently in Utah State, but averaging 18-20k per year if they return to form is pretty good. Remember last season was a bit of a down year from what they are used to.
I agree that the Hawaii numbers are a bit deceptive. I think they have more fans spread across the islands and a good amount in the Vegas valley considering how many show up to the island show down game here. But they have been a partial partner in the past for a reason. So It's hard to call them fat or big positive.
But SJSU is good, but fans don't care. They have zero penetration in that very good market. Their ceiling is especially low from a media perspective. A perennial bowl team that won the conference in the past 5 years and they near the bottom of the list in attendance every year. SDSU being terrible and averaging nearly 25k? Very strong.
So taking out the majority of the top markets, and and the worst the best bottom team vs taking all of the fat and averaging it out, I still think there is a decent difference there. How much? I don't know if there is a good estimation, but I think our bottom is pretty bad and moves the needle substantially. I think attendance is a decent way to compare, but it is really more about eyeballs on TVs. Some teams have more lurkers or nationwide fans than others. Safe to Say Boise has the best brand and probably leads the way there. I would think actually CSU is up there as well just because is one of 2 large state schools in a pretty big state, a state bigger than every other state in our conference by a large amount (besides California of course).
The up front costs do make a difference, and right now, yes it does seem like it will take a good amount of time for them to break even. But if the poaching fees get thrown out and they pay only a portion of the negotiated exit fees, then it may not take long at all.
I didn’t include them though as “fat” for obvious reasons. Is USU the best of the “fat” that was in the MW? I don’t think they are any more or less capable than any of the other fat teams of having a decent season. Add to that the fact that I’m not sure what exactly their media market share is. At least with your UNMs, WYOs, and UNRs you have an idea of what the value of their media market is because they’re not playing third fiddle to two big brother teams.
I’m not arguing that they won’t have a more valuable league on a per team basis. What I am arguing is that those teams that provide that value in the PAC would have provided the same value to the MW, and collectively they would add even more value in the MW than they will in this new PAC.
Their percentage of fat WILL be lower… I just think they would have overcome that with the strength of a combined conference and maybe some tweaks that incentivized the better performing teams.
Another thing to think about is what happens when they start beating up on each other? If there’s so much parity then it’s bound to happen. What happens when your teams don’t bring back any quality wins in the OOC, or a couple of them do and then go lose to CSU or USU in a blizzard?
The Boise v UNLV championship was the highest rated championship ever for the MW, because both teams had created the stakes for it.
Will the PAC be better than the MW? Yes.
Will they get more money than the MW? Yes.
Will the PAC be better than a merged league?No.
Would the PAC teams end up better off in a merged league competitively? I don’t know, but I think yes.
Would they be better off financially? I don’t know but I’d suspect no unless they’re somehow able to cheat the penalties, and I don’t think they can or will cheat them completely.
