You could be right about external money being there for Mullen… so MAYBE you can exclude the downside on that aspect, though there was no hard cost associated with it.
But I’m not sure where you come up with “getting $14 million vs paying $5million” and having it be a $19 million swing…
I know where you’re getting the $5million, but you’re basing that on a starting number of $16 million per school. Everything I’ve read has that number as $18 million. If as you say (and I think that’s safe) the number in the MOU is based on $11 million per school then that cost is $7 million and not $5 million. Not a monster difference, but a difference nonetheless.
But the $14 million?
If as you say, the poaching fees hold up, and the exit fees get negotiated down to $11 million per school, then you’re at $110 million…
Per the MOU here are the distributions and their order:
1st $61 million - UNLV gets 24.5%=$14,950,000
Next $18 million conference “recruiting reserve”
Next $21 million- UNLV gets 24.5% =$5,145,000
(Pretty sure that’s where the annual payments of $1.5-$1.8 come in)
There’s $100 million.
After that the MW pays legal fees, then any remaining funds get split with all members at 16% and Hawaii gets 6%.
So right there you’ve got $20million + the $11million settled exit fee - $6million in assistance from the PAC and you’re at a $25 million swing.
That’s $4million per year over the course of any new 6 year deal you might get with the PAC and as of right now I don’t think they’re gonna get that.
Let me explain my numbers better.
First exit fees. I am basing on an assumption that the Exit fees will be 11 mil. I think that is a very safe assumption based off of all of the other exit fees that have have happened. And it is on the HIGH end based off of precedent. It would be similar to what the AAC detractors paid and I think that is a really good comp. But many of the other examples were significantly less. So I do think that the exit fees could easily be less than 11 mil per team.
Assuming that we get every last penny of the Poaching fees, that is where the lump sum of 14 mil came from. And 14 mil again is the MAX there.
Harper said the PAC was offering 6 mil in exit fee help. 11-6 is 5 mil. 5 mil + 14 is 19 mil. Meaning right off the bat there is a 19 million dollar swing when considering accepting a PAC invite vs staying in the MW. Going back to your point that we had to hire or extend a coach, which I agree with.
We may not have to pay that 5 mil up front as a lump sum, but for argument's sake let's go with that. 5 mil is a small enough number that makes sense anyway.
As for the MOA, again this is from UNLV
"According to a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by President Whitfield, the Mountain West will pay an estimated lump sum of $10-to-14 million to UNLV in 2025, and also pay UNLV approximately $1.5-to-1.8 million annually over a six-year period beginning in July 2026. The new payments are on top of the current revenue streams from existing contracts and media assets. The current media deal expires in June 2026 and negotiations for a new media deal will begin in the near future. The university will also have the flexibility to explore future membership in an autonomous “Power Four” conference without penalty should the opportunity become available."
So UNLV will get an absolute maximum 24.8 million dollars total from staying in the league. According to this it could be as low as 19 mil total. But again this is before the lawsuits, so that could less. None of these numbers are guaranteed, notice the "approximately" "estimated". There were other numbers rumored, but I believe this is what it was settled at.
AS for the PAC I think they will easily get 4 mil more per school than the MW. I just can't see how they cannot. I hope I am wrong, but I believe they took our best 4, combined them with 2 that would be at least no worse than those top 4, added our current mean (USU) And we are left with the leftovers and our replacement schools at best make things no worse, and and at worse make our payouts worse.
I didn't include the other 9-10.8 million because I think there will be at least a 4 mil difference in the league AND hopefully we are not in the MW after 6 years anyway. But assuming we get the max payout and there will be a 4 mil difference our break even point would just after the 6 year mark. After that we would be making more money from just the base contract alone in the PAC.
But there are other factors. It is safe to say the new PAC will be getting more tournament credits. only 50% are shared, but each school could still be taking home more since they took 4 or our best 6 basketball schools.
