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Estimate for MWC media deal

WYNN or Dye
Meister_Rebel said:
Watched the entire show. Almost fell asleep once.

Here is my half awake opinion on what I heard.

The hot topic for us would be media valuation. Remember, these guys know about as much as what is going to happen as the rest of us. The main take from both of the guys was that fans are going to be disappointed from both conferences regards media revenue. Some on here have been saying that specifically regarding the Pac. One guy was thinking the Pac could get something from 8-10 million and the MW getting as much as 7 million which later he revised that amount to just saying 4-6 million. Numbers being pulled out of their ass as they really are just guessing.

They got into who we may be partnering with regards to media companies and who the pac may be partnering with.

One guy was thinking we are not done expanding and there may be a possibility of one more for football addition in the MW. The same guy even said he has a good idea who the 8th team is for the pac. Although, like most of these guys they aren't going to say who. It's click bait to me to get you to keep coming back and watch their show.
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The one guy, JT. The one to the left, wearing an Air Force t-shirt.
Doesn't, even have a UNLV shirt. You know, the flagship program of the new Mountain West.
So, I can't really take these guys that serious. Plus, they live in the East Coast and not in any MWC state.
They, are guessing on the number of how much the MW will get as far as the media values will go to.
I am thinking, 5 to 7 million dollars.
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Whaley status

dcut03
I treat a good amount of spines. I have been a part of the biggest individual physical therapy spine study in the country.

I have seen a lot of backs. He didn't look good at the Riverside game I went to, and he did look like he has put on weight.

It's tough for a guy like Rob in terms of weight. When you can't exercise and you are a big dude anyway, its tough NOT to gain weight when your back acts up. He is probably used to running all of the time, lifting all of the time. Stop that, you are going to gain weight.

Of course the extra weight put more load on the back.

I don't think he is faking it. I have seen dudes fake. I saw him react to being bumped when he didn't see it coming.
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Estimate for MWC media deal

M
WYNN or Dye said:
If, you got 50 minutes. Comprehensive, discussion on the MWC/Pac media values.

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Watched the entire show. Almost fell asleep once.

Here is my half awake opinion on what I heard.

The hot topic for us would be media valuation. Remember, these guys know about as much as what is going to happen as the rest of us. The main take from both of the guys was that fans are going to be disappointed from both conferences regards media revenue. Some on here have been saying that specifically regarding the Pac. One guy was thinking the Pac could get something from 8-10 million and the MW getting as much as 7 million which later he revised that amount to just saying 4-6 million. Numbers being pulled out of their ass as they really are just guessing.

They got into who we may be partnering with regards to media companies and who the pac may be partnering with.

One guy was thinking we are not done expanding and there may be a possibility of one more for football addition in the MW. The same guy even said he has a good idea who the 8th team is for the pac. Although, like most of these guys they aren't going to say who. It's click bait to me to get you to keep coming back and watch their show.
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Estimate for MWC media deal

dcut03
Meister_Rebel said:
Based on what the UC Davis Chancellor said in accepting the offer to join the MW I have to think they do want to get more exposure in athletics. If they didn't care why would they join. If it works out for them that they can get that part of CA excited it would pay off for us having them in the 20th largest media market (Sacramento). It's not happening overnight I wouldn't be so bold as to say otherwise. But, if it happens down the road then we, the MWC, would be better with them.

This is what their Chancellor said in accepting the offer:

UC Davis Chancellor Gary S. May. “Our transition to the highly regarded conference will introduce our Aggie community to a broader audience, in major metropolitan areas and through increased media coverage. It also provides us with an opportunity to align with universities that share similar academic strengths while also expanding our competitive presence in the Western United States.”
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Why would they join? Easy, they are going to get a much better media deal. Why would we ask them to join is the question.
It may be a bit of a "prove it" deal. It does seem like the majority of the moves the MW are for the future. Unfortunately "potential" only pays so much. These contracts are agreed to up front, unless we are breaking the mold with a profit sharing model.
UTEP and GCU also have better potential than value today.
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Estimate for MWC media deal

RebelinWA
dcut03 said:
I think there is a fair share of unknowns both ways.

The factor that is often missed is if UNLV excepted the invite then that is a really solid conference. Payouts would have probably been pretty good. Unsure if they still go for Utah State if we said yes, but it is safe to say they would have eventually and they didn't balk at the offer.

UNLV didn't know the poaching fees would be aggressively contested, they should have known that the exit fees would be.

The weird part of all of this is that the estimated payouts have likely changed since. UNLV's value probably went up a couple of pegs,

Exit fees are the only up front cost for UNLV, and it was reported that the PAC was offering 6 mil in help. That is not bad at all.

Sure having up to 14 mill up front, vs facing some level of exit fee does create a potential issue. But the way these are negotiated and often paid off over time, it is very possible that UNLV would making more per year with paying off their fee included on the ledger. No money up front though.

I think UNLV could afford to jump. It isn't that daunting of an ask. The MW wasn't that much safer. Sure it was more likely to actually become a conference, but the type of payouts was very much an unknown.
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Utah State jumping created as much of a problem for the MW as UNLV not jumping did for the Pac. Wish we could see what would have happened if both decided to be in one or the other. I don't think anyone in the pac thought that UNLV would say no.
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Estimate for MWC media deal

M
dcut03 said:
UC Davis has some potential, but just because they are a large school doesn't mean they will ever care about athletics.
Their brand currently is very poor. There is no tradition, no previous excitement, etc. Northern California does not seem to be a great college football area. Cal and Stanford have fleeting fanbases and they are the big ones. SJSU has been extremely poor and UCDavis and Sac State seem to be making a push, but historically there has been little excitement. Hopefully them being "upgraded" will spark some excitement like what seems to be happening at UTEP. Having a large fanbase is great, but they have to care about their sports teams. There is zero indication that they actually do.
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Based on what the UC Davis Chancellor said in accepting the offer to join the MW I have to think they do want to get more exposure in athletics. If they didn't care why would they join. If it works out for them that they can get that part of CA excited it would pay off for us having them in the 20th largest media market (Sacramento). It's not happening overnight I wouldn't be so bold as to say otherwise. But, if it happens down the road then we, the MWC, would be better with them.

This is what their Chancellor said in accepting the offer:

UC Davis Chancellor Gary S. May. “Our transition to the highly regarded conference will introduce our Aggie community to a broader audience, in major metropolitan areas and through increased media coverage. It also provides us with an opportunity to align with universities that share similar academic strengths while also expanding our competitive presence in the Western United States.”
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Estimate for MWC media deal

dcut03
oneepstein said:
Exactly this.

In all of the “arguments” we’ve had on here surrounding UNLVs decision, both sides are factoring in assumptions of unknowns and “ifs”.

There’s just way too much we don’t know and way too much to still play out. We may never know the full truth about the why.

I personally don’t believe UNLV REALLY had any option.

If you put both options/offers on paper, there were WAY more unknowns by going to the new PAC and WAY more “knowns” by staying in the MW. The “gamble” wasn’t staying, it was joining the PAC.
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I think there is a fair share of unknowns both ways.

The factor that is often missed is if UNLV excepted the invite then that is a really solid conference. Payouts would have probably been pretty good. Unsure if they still go for Utah State if we said yes, but it is safe to say they would have eventually and they didn't balk at the offer.

UNLV didn't know the poaching fees would be aggressively contested, they should have known that the exit fees would be.

The weird part of all of this is that the estimated payouts have likely changed since. UNLV's value probably went up a couple of pegs,

Exit fees are the only up front cost for UNLV, and it was reported that the PAC was offering 6 mil in help. That is not bad at all.

Sure having up to 14 mill up front, vs facing some level of exit fee does create a potential issue. But the way these are negotiated and often paid off over time, it is very possible that UNLV would making more per year with paying off their fee included on the ledger. No money up front though.

I think UNLV could afford to jump. It isn't that daunting of an ask. The MW wasn't that much safer. Sure it was more likely to actually become a conference, but the type of payouts was very much an unknown.
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Tony Sanchez Most Important UNLV Football Coach Ever?

U
Boston Rebel 2 said:
I bet we could have gotten the same no exit deal from the PAC they are desperate.
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I don't think so. I believe that SDSU and some others believed that they could stick it to UNLV. Otherwise, UNLV would have been offered before Memphis. I can't imagine SDSU, CSU and others allowing UNLV to have an out clause that they themselves did not possess. Furthermore, this difference in out clause is one of the reasons that many list UNLV as most likely from those choices to the Big 12. Without the large exit fee and with minimal debt, UNLV could afford to take one third or one quarter of the Big 12 norm. With their debt, the MWC exit fee and the the Pac exit fee, I doubt that SDSU could, even if offered. However, even if your assumption was true, would UNLV then have had the money for Mullen, his entire staff, increased NIL and profit sharing. Mullen, hist staff, larger NIL and profit sharing >>...>>> a membership in the Pac whatever. I believe that SDSU, not UNLV, will regret their decisions, if UNLV gets a Big 12 invite at a reduced payout. From a business perspective, this is opportunity cost.
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Estimate for MWC media deal

RebelinWA
dcut03 said:
UC Davis has some potential, but just because they are a large school doesn't mean they will ever care about athletics.
Their brand currently is very poor. There is no tradition, no previous excitement, etc. Northern California does not seem to be a great college football area. Cal and Stanford have fleeting fanbases and they are the big ones. SJSU has been extremely poor and UCDavis and Sac State seem to be making a push, but historically there has been little excitement. Hopefully them being "upgraded" will spark some excitement like what seems to be happening at UTEP. Having a large fanbase is great, but they have to care about their sports teams. There is zero indication that they actually do.
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I don’t know about the state of their basketball, but their football stadium has been sold out all of this season. Granted, its a very small stadium, but they’ve been competitive in their league with a 11-3 record. They even have an upset over Hauck’s normally dominant Montana team.

I should note that I’m not suggesting their football is ready to be elevated. Fan bases absolutely matter. Though, the reality is most fans regardless of school are fair weather.
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Jalen Catalon to Missouri

S
Rebel1986 said:
I am not talking only UNLV, and they have revolted by walking away by the thousands lately at UNLV and by the millions nationwide. There is not doubt these fees will continue to increase, and in many cases the athletic fee for students is over $1000 year, and what I think is funny is that many of those in favor of the fees say this is only a small increase in what they are paying while lining the pockets of athletes. Both of my sons started at UNLV and both left and are doing online degrees instead. No fees and work at your own pace!
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Talking about athletic fees is only part of the problem. Most schools have professors that only teach a few hours a week and layers of admin staff that jack up costs more than athletics. Why not go after that also?
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Estimate for MWC media deal

dcut03
RebelinWA said:
The best case that would have gotten us closer to 7m would have been adding Niu and Toledo as football only and on a partial share.

UTEP has a lot of potential, they just need to win.

UC Davis was an interesting choice. They have a small but expandable stadium, if they decide to bring up their football. They just finished their own $50m football facility 2 years ago.

UC Davis also has a large alumni base that is 3x larger than Boise and double of UNLV’s. In fact, they would be second to only Sdsu in alumni size compared to everyone in the new pac.
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UC Davis has some potential, but just because they are a large school doesn't mean they will ever care about athletics.
Their brand currently is very poor. There is no tradition, no previous excitement, etc. Northern California does not seem to be a great college football area. Cal and Stanford have fleeting fanbases and they are the big ones. SJSU has been extremely poor and UCDavis and Sac State seem to be making a push, but historically there has been little excitement. Hopefully them being "upgraded" will spark some excitement like what seems to be happening at UTEP. Having a large fanbase is great, but they have to care about their sports teams. There is zero indication that they actually do.
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Estimate for MWC media deal

dcut03
Meister_Rebel said:
What I understood was that the exit fees from the traitors would cover our "signing bonus" for staying in the MW. It doesn't have anything to do with the next media deal. Payment to us was in two parts. An initial amount which is about 50% of the total signing bonus would be paid in 2025. The other 50% would be paid during the next media contract "cycle" of 6 years. That isn't tied to the next media contract it's just when it will be paid to us. The true dollar amount of the signing bonus is going to be decided in the courts with the exit fee lawsuits filed.

The "poaching fees" would have been evenly divided by each remaining school in the conference except maybe Hawaii as they weren't full members. But, I'm not sure about Hawaii.

With the lawsuits we won't know until then how much money we will actually get. If it isn't enough with what the MW was promising then we may be headed to the Pac. Honestly, I don't know what we would do.
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This is true. None of the MOA money amounts are guaranteed. They were all estimates.
The first lump sum was based off of poaching fees, just because I believe that without any lawsuit, that money was collectible early. The rest of the money is likely Exit fees because those are not collected until after those schools officially play their last game for the conference. Those fees can be a lump sum or paid over time.
The total fees to be collected on paper is "around" 155 mil. the maximum amount that with be paid for the retention bonus was about 110, with UNLV getting "up to" 24.8 mil. So it looks like that the MW was budgeting for at least some room for the negotiations. They also had to have a bit of an acquisition budget too.
Remember all of these numbers were released before any lawsuit. They were never set in stone, but at least the total value is threatened now. Also, this was before Hawaii was made a full member, I am not sure if they are getting a bigger bonus for staying as a part of the deal, I remember they were at least fighting for that.
The MW is not swimming in cash, 100% of the extra money will come from fees, so we don't know what we really will get until everything is settled. We may not get that lump sum until later, and at Harper's post season press conference, it sounded like he was not counting on any money until at least 2026.
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Tony Sanchez Most Important UNLV Football Coach Ever?

dcut03
utestream said:
No. I would say that Mullen and those that bankrolled Mullen diasagree with you. I am not saying that you are guaranteed P4. However, there is a reason that two years ago many people believed that SDSU, WSU, OrSU, Memphis, and UCONN had a better chance of moving to the Big 12 than UNLV. Due to a combination of factors and smart leadership amd decisionmaking by your incredible AD Harper, most now believe that UNLV has a better shot at P4 than any of those schools. Why? UNLV bet on themselves by investing in themselves. If
Mullen leaves after 2 years, it will likely mean that UNLV will have had four years in a row of 9+ wins, a 2025/2026 attendance of more than 40,000 per game and one of the strongest tv viewersipship metrics in all of G5/6. Two years ago, would you have even thought that was possible? The alternative. Jump to pacwhatver, have a huge P4 exit fee , spend less on your profit sharing, NIL and new coaching staff, end up as a middling Pacwhatever program and miss the next round of expansion.
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I agree that UNLV is betting on themselves, which is a bit refreshing. It shows confidence and that we aren't just a flash in a pan. Or at least that we are truly going all in.
We can all speculate how much the B12 is truly interested in us. I personally would like to think there is a least a little smoke to that fire. Everything that we have done, including the P4 free pass, makes it look like there at least some sliver of hope.
To play devil's advocate there could be another reason. It is possible that the B12 has said no to us (which is 100% true) and listed all of the reasons why not and we are trying to shove their reasons down their throats. Showing a commitment to football, making big time hires, and hopefully exciting our historically underwhelming fan base along the way. Check, check, check. Now by doing those things, it doesn't mean that the B12 will take us. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't. I'm sure they already feel a bit diluted by elevating other G5s, and doing that again may create skepticism for actually working. I am guessing that most of the B12 fanbase would rather not bring in another G5. Their first choice is possibly picking up some ACC scraps if they implode, but there is no guarantee that happens.
Another caveat to this that in 10 years this all may not matter. Turning down the PAC now, may not completely shut that down in the future. Having a little extra cash right now can help this momentum thing going forward, and P4 is really the only answer to having this athletic department truly relevant and to potentially thrive down the road.
So we shoot our wad now. We use all the momentum from the Odom era to go balls to the wall, and at the very least stay relevant as a G5 in a weaker league. If the finances cannot sustain this down the road, then we change our budget accordingly.
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