Agree on some… disagree on some… and you have some good points.
Disagree on the market size as Couev pointed out, but yes, the revenue will be less with a good chance a good amount less, how much remains to be seen and the PAC seems to have overestimated their worth AND shot themselves in the foot by now having to look at the same teams for acceptance.
And you’re right UNLV would have seemed a perfect fit and capped off their coup, and as you said would make them seem legit.
That’s not egotism, because everyone knows how poorly we’ve performed over the years, but plug in any other team (other than those they’ve already been rejected by) and tell me the PAC is gonna look legit. This is the shooting themselves in the foot part.
I think the $18 million number has a good chance of holding, but at dead worst it’s gonna be $12 million since that’s basically the amount that will be withheld from future payments to any of the leaving teams. They can try to sue, but I don’t think anybody is getting a refund.
When all is said and done UNLV will have made/saved at a bare minimum $25 million by staying. Another thing is that when that money and that move becomes relevant. Here’s what I mean by that:
Had UNLV decided to go to the PAC they would have seen their las bit of income from the MW… that’s $6 million in June 2025 and $6 million in June 2026. They would not see a dollar in media revenue until a PAC media deal kicked in and who know when that would be, but I’m going to assume it’s not til June of 2027 or thereabouts.
By staying, UNLV will get those payments, plus the bonus promised ($10-$12 million?) in 2025, plus normal distribution of $6 million and a smaller bonus ($1.8 million?) in 2026. Between now and 2026 that’s $24-$26 million you get and $12 million you don’t lose, so the difference in money on hand by June 2026 is $36-$38 million.
The next part of it is that any difference in reduced revenue you get from the MW’s next deal versus what you might get in the PACs new deal doesn’t occur until 2027… it’s at that point that you can start to deduct what you’re making from what you could’ve made. You’ve also got to remember that each year for 5 years (assuming UNLV stayed with the MW for the duration) there is roughly another $1.5 million coming to UNLV on top of whatever they get from the new media deal.
And the clock doesn’t start counting down for almost 3 years.
Nobody knows what the difference in media rights payments between the two conferences is going to be, but even if it’s a $5 million difference (which based on what I’ve read seems possible to not even be that much)… it ends up only being a $3.5 million deficit for 5 years through 2032. At that point UNLV would still be up roughly $20 million.
As far as comparing the two leagues… no it’s not close for football. They definitely have a leg up and an advantage… but they’re still G5 and they’re not the clear G5 favorite over the AAC.
Only one G5 is getting in any given year and so much luck and favoritism goes into who that’s going to be that I’d argue the AAC has a better chance year in and year out because of the footprint of their league. They’re just in WAY more markets. The PAC really screwed themselves by concentrating their footprint the way they have.
If I was putting a percentage on chances a G5 team from one of the leagues gets the CFP spot Id say AAC 45%, PAC 35%, anybody else 20%.
Leg up? You bet. Guaranteed to actually be a successful league… nope.
And basketball… less advantage than you might think. Aside from StDSU, none of them have been world beaters. In any given year any one of them CAN be good, but there’s more than a little bit of parity with the rest of them and none of them have near the potential to become big basketball brands, other than StDSU of course.
On the other hand UNLV and UNM have tremendous potential. UNM fan support is outstanding and UNLV has more unrealized potential than maybe anyone in the country.
If KK doesn’t deliver a top 25 ranking and an NCAA appearance, and maybe a win of at least one game, you’ve got enough money to pay Odom AND hire a coach who can deliver those things.
So those things make me feel better about things.
