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Unlv & Air Force in contact w/AAC

Bullmastiff 1
Rebel1986 said:
I do not see how there would be any benefit for Memphis or Tulane to join the watered down PAC. The only way this could work would be if they had enough teams in the PAC on both the east and west coast, otherwise the other programs would be doing a lot of travelling across the country, not just in football, but also in all the other sports. It is unlikely that those two programs would see enough of an increase, if any, in the TV contract compared to what they currently get to offset the increased cost to the entire athletic department which would be into the millions. It appears that what will be left for the PAC is coming back to the MWC, or the few lower level schools in the American Conference, that are located in Texas or surrounding areas. These schools would include North Texas (2-1 2023 attendance 17,761), possibly Tulsa (1-2 2023 attendance 20,187), and UTSA (1-2 2023 attendance 28,876). They could also look at the Sun Belt West with Arkansas State (2-1 2023 attendance 16,747) and Texas State (2-1 2023 attendance 21,184) or Conference USA with UTEP (0-3 2023 attendance 18,160). In my believe, all of these schools are a big drop off from the current MWC with the possible exception of UTSA. The only school in the group with good attendance is UTSA. We never know what is going to happen until it happens, but I am starting to wonder if BSU and SDSU screwed the pooch again because of their ongoing greed?
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They would because that current contract was written with UH, CINCY, SMU, and themselves in the AAC.

That contract is going to significantly drop from its current 7 or 9 million per team.

Ross Dellenger Yahoo Sports who's pretty up on these things said early projections for new PAC deal are around 10 million.

I get your point they are just projections nothing set in stone.

But the PAC would gobble up a lot of the remaining time slots for late games out West on TV and streaming services.

You're a casual fan sitting down on a Saturday night. Last games of the day are on.

Your options are:

Arizona vs Oklahoma State
Boise State vs Washington State
New Mexico vs USU

Sure if you are a UNM or USU fan I know what you are watching. But everyone else is tuning into those other games out West.


And that's without even factoring USC and UCLA and others playing in the BIG10 now.

UNLV and the MWC are currently in a precarious spot if things continue down the path they currently travel.
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M
dcut03 said:
There is some logical reasoning, at least for me. Could the PAC 2 be the biggest swindlers ever? Perhaps, but that seems to be somewhat unlikely.
Teams do not bolt for new conferences without having some idea of what that TV contract will be. It is arguable to SOLE reason realignment even happens these days. It seems to have very little to do with regionality, historical rivals, etc.
The PAC 2 could have easily merged/reverse merged with the MW. Those 2 additions along with everyone else would have likely pushed the total payout per school to 6-7 million I would guess.
Boise jumped ship and they make more than everyone else in the MW, so at the very least the new PAC should be getting more than that easily. Especially when considering the possible fees they may have to at least partially pay.
No secret that the PAC is targeting AAC schools including Memphis. Memphis currently gets 7 mil per year, though the long term stability of that is threatened. But then you factor in travel costs.
It would be extremely foolish to approach Memphis with any confidence without offering at the very least 9 mil per year. Probably at least 10.
There were reports before this happened that a rebuilt PAC, which included UNLV and Air Force could get 15 mil per year. But who knows how accurate that was.
But I think 10+ is a pretty safe bet. Why would the PAC 2 willingly give up at the very least 43 million dollars to create their own conference by raiding the MW if their contract wasn't at least significantly better that what they would have gotten by merging? It has to be a substantial bump for this to make any type of financial sense. They could have simply joined the MW in some fashion, and kept all of their PAC money they netted from being raided themselves.
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You say merge easily but every interview with the new commissioner points to her not wanting to do that. If it was easy it would've been done. She wanted to have both all the money or a large portion of it and get a larger tv deal cut to join and when the MWC turned around and said you need us, she flipped to trying to break them apart. There is assumptions a tv deal was ar least discussed but we also know Boise and SDSU think very highly of themselves and could easily be sold to join a new conference whose outlook has potential to be better than MWC for them if they defect. Then she offered to pay their fees so it became a no brainer... the problem now is you have 2-4 other programs asking for same deal and money gets tight, plus whatever assurances and promises were made to the 4 defectors... it's not easy
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Bullmastiff 1
InZoneU said:
The PAC TV deal for 2026 is not even in place, nobody has any idea what that equates to 2 years down the road. Where is the $10MM coming from?

All the P12 is, is a brand name. I mean I get what you're saying, but it's not as strong nationally as you think. We all know most of the rest of the USA thought the previous P12 was ass already and now it has a bunch of MWC and AAC teams with Wazzu and Oregon State? Meh.

There is also no reasonable assumption UNLV's going to stick it out in the MWC.
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There are early projections based on markets already in play. Ross Dellenger wrote article today saying those projections are upwards of 10 million dollars.

MWC is at 3 million per now. That number is going down next negotiations based on who we lost.

AAC number was at 7 or 9 million per team, based on a contract that was written with UH, CINCY, MEMPHIS, UCF, SMU in the conference. That contract is not going to be renewed at anywhere near that number.

For chuckles let's assume PAC adds just Tulane and Memphis.

Put that conference up against the MWC and tell me who's getting the bigger media rights deal, remembering the MWC current contract was created with four of the teams no longer here and now in the PAC.

There's no way if things play out like that the MWC conference is getting a similiar media deal. They just aren't.

So yes conference matters because money matters.

And if AFA to AAC rumors are true MWC no longer qualifies as a conference. They are under 8.

I do not think UNLV can continue to build on what Odom started if we get relegated to somewhere like CUSA or a depleted AAC.
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dcut03
InZoneU said:
The PAC TV deal for 2026 is not even in place, nobody has any idea what that equates to 2 years down the road. Where is the $10MM coming from?

All the P12 is, is a brand name. I mean I get what you're saying, but it's not as strong nationally as you think. We all know most of the rest of the USA thought the previous P12 was ass already and now it has a bunch of MWC and AAC teams with Wazzu and Oregon State? Meh.

There is also no reasonable assumption UNLV's going to stick it out in the MWC.
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There is some logical reasoning, at least for me. Could the PAC 2 be the biggest swindlers ever? Perhaps, but that seems to be somewhat unlikely.
Teams do not bolt for new conferences without having some idea of what that TV contract will be. It is arguable to SOLE reason realignment even happens these days. It seems to have very little to do with regionality, historical rivals, etc.
The PAC 2 could have easily merged/reverse merged with the MW. Those 2 additions along with everyone else would have likely pushed the total payout per school to 6-7 million I would guess.
Boise jumped ship and they make more than everyone else in the MW, so at the very least the new PAC should be getting more than that easily. Especially when considering the possible fees they may have to at least partially pay.
No secret that the PAC is targeting AAC schools including Memphis. Memphis currently gets 7 mil per year, though the long term stability of that is threatened. But then you factor in travel costs.
It would be extremely foolish to approach Memphis with any confidence without offering at the very least 9 mil per year. Probably at least 10.
There were reports before this happened that a rebuilt PAC, which included UNLV and Air Force could get 15 mil per year. But who knows how accurate that was.
But I think 10+ is a pretty safe bet. Why would the PAC 2 willingly give up at the very least 43 million dollars to create their own conference by raiding the MW if their contract wasn't at least significantly better that what they would have gotten by merging? It has to be a substantial bump for this to make any type of financial sense. They could have simply joined the MW in some fashion, and kept all of their PAC money they netted from being raided themselves.
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RebelinWA
From a media perspective, I think these mega conferences are going to run dry. The calculus changes with streaming vs linear media.

It’s incredibly expensive to maintain a streaming service. My company hasn’t figured out a way to make it profitable, or even self sustaining yet. Money for these $30m+ per school media deals is going to concentrate to the biggest and most profitable 3 conferences, while everyone else will fight for whats left.

While I do believe a Pac is absolutely an upgrade vs what we have now; it might not be the upgrade we all want it to be. I have a hard time believing that the new media deal for the pac will reach the $12m per year per school that they want in its current format.
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IF REMAINING MWC TEAMS WERE SMART

dcut03
Bullmastiff 1 said:
You think Alabama or anyone in the SEC wants to see that happen?

I hope it does but skeptical we see more than 1 G5 program get in barring something crazy like 2 undefeated G5 teams that win their conference. Even then I 'Oh we think 2 loss Ole Miss deserves that spot their schedule is just so much tougher than NMSU or Liberty'.
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I don't think the SEC cares.

It wouldn't change anything for them. It would another game or playoff to get into the 12 playoff, the final spot. Similar to the first four we currently have. At least that is how I interpretted it.

I haven't seen a play in for an additional spot, say the best remaining non conference champion?
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I
Bullmastiff 1 said:
If I'm getting 10 million a year and you are getting 1.5 million a year on media revenue I'm at an immediate advantage.

Secondly the success of the program is driven in part by money.

Conference affiliation creates ceilings for programs.

A team from the Sun Belt is never going to win a national title. They are also very unlikely to get into the new CFP even if they run the table. Their conference affiliation (weaker conference schedule) will get them passed over by another G5 who may have one loss.

So looking ahead.

PAC has their current 6 plus add UTSA, MEMPHIS,TULANE, USF.

MWC somehow cobbles together NMSU Texas State, North Texas and let's say Sam Houston State.

Boise goes 12-0 wins PAC

UNLV Also goes 12-0 wins MWC

Who gets the group of 5 bid?

Likely Boise based on tougher schedule.

More realistic scenario.

Both go 11-1. Boise still gets in. Now they start filling the 12 team playoffs.

Boise in. SEC champ in. ACC champ in. SEC champ in. BIG 10 Champ in. Big 12 Champ in. No way the powers that be aren't putting in the next best teams from the Big10 and SEC in. Those 12 spots are going to fill up quick and no way a second G5 program is going to get the nod.
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The PAC TV deal for 2026 is not even in place, nobody has any idea what that equates to 2 years down the road. Where is the $10MM coming from?

All the P12 is, is a brand name. I mean I get what you're saying, but it's not as strong nationally as you think. We all know most of the rest of the USA thought the previous P12 was ass already and now it has a bunch of MWC and AAC teams with Wazzu and Oregon State? Meh.

There is also no reasonable assumption UNLV's going to stick it out in the MWC.
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Rebel1986
Bullmastiff 1 said:
If I'm getting 10 million a year and you are getting 1.5 million a year on media revenue I'm at an immediate advantage.

Secondly the success of the program is driven in part by money.

Conference affiliation creates ceilings for programs.

A team from the Sun Belt is never going to win a national title. They are also very unlikely to get into the new CFP even if they run the table. Their conference affiliation (weaker conference schedule) will get them passed over by another G5 who may have one loss.

So looking ahead.

PAC has their current 6 plus add UTSA, MEMPHIS,TULANE, USF.

MWC somehow cobbles together NMSU Texas State, North Texas and let's say Sam Houston State.

Boise goes 12-0 wins PAC

UNLV Also goes 12-0 wins MWC

Who gets the group of 5 bid?

Likely Boise based on tougher schedule.

More realistic scenario.

Both go 11-1. Boise still gets in. Now they start filling the 12 team playoffs.

Boise in. SEC champ in. ACC champ in. SEC champ in. BIG 10 Champ in. Big 12 Champ in. No way the powers that be aren't putting in the next best teams from the Big10 and SEC in. Those 12 spots are going to fill up quick and no way a second G5 program is going to get the nod.
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Just curious how you think they will offset the travel cost for Memphis, USC, and Tulane for their other sports? By the time you figure in the millions in additional travel cost for all the other athletic programs at Tulane and Memphis, it could end up as closer to a wash unless they get a large increase in TV contract money from a conference that doesn't currently have a single ranked team and no TV contract.

Tulane had an attendance average of 25,021 in 2023 and are located in a relatively small market in New Orleans when you look at the fact they must compete with LSU for attendance and viewership which is located just up the street in Baton Rouge, as well as many other smaller universities located within the state that also compete for the same market. I lived in Louisiana, and LSU is King while every other school is an afterthought. They would bring very little to a new TV contract.

Memphis is a possible decent market with a game attendance is 2023 of around 29K. They also have the same issue as Tulane in the fact that the University of Tennessee controls most of the state, and Memphis is an afterthought that has been trying to increase their market for decades without a lot of luck with a few exceptions. Memphis averaged 38,668 in attendance back in 2003 and then went up in down bottoming out at 20,078 in 2010 and peaked at 43,802 in 2014. Since then they have been on a steady decline and averaged just over 29K in 2023. While they do bring some value to a new TV contract, they would need millions of additional funds just to offset the travel cost for all the other athletic teams.
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Bullmastiff 1
dcut03 said:
The one saving grace to that is the G5 play in tournament/game that has been suggested for that last playoff spot. That sounds good if you aren't in the best G5. Sounds bad if you are in the best G5 conference.
I think this year the MW is the best mostly die to the top of the conference.
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You think Alabama or anyone in the SEC wants to see that happen?

I hope it does but skeptical we see more than 1 G5 program get in barring something crazy like 2 undefeated G5 teams that win their conference. Even then I 'Oh we think 2 loss Ole Miss deserves that spot their schedule is just so much tougher than NMSU or Liberty'.
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Unlv & Air Force in contact w/AAC

M
dcut03 said:
I think UNLV and AFA will be risking a lot to jump to the AAC. At least anytime soon.
They would br paying 17 to enter a conference that could get gutted again. We would not be getting 7 mil and would likely never see a number close to that.
Memphis could say that they are staying and still leave.
Also if the aac foes get gutted there is a chance that the remaining MW and AAC merge. Which would be better for UNLV. They get to NOT pay 17 mil and still get their cut of the exit fees from the other conferences.
I think this is the 3rd best case scenario after the Big 12 and the PAC
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I totally get the merge idea. The one thing that sucks is dragging reno into it. Can we merge without them. I mean let's just get away from them and end the bullshit discussions we have regards the BOR each time this realignment comes up.
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Unlv & Air Force in contact w/AAC

LVRebel2000
dcut03 said:
I think UNLV and AFA will be risking a lot to jump to the AAC. At least anytime soon.
They would br paying 17 to enter a conference that could get gutted again. We would not be getting 7 mil and would likely never see a number close to that.
Memphis could say that they are staying and still leave.
Also if the aac foes get gutted there is a chance that the remaining MW and AAC merge. Which would be better for UNLV. They get to NOT pay 17 mil and still get their cut of the exit fees from the other conferences.
I think this is the 3rd best case scenario after the Big 12 and the PAC
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yeah, the MW/AAC merger would make a lot of sense. All of this changing conference stuff is really annoying IMO.
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dcut03
Bullmastiff 1 said:
If I'm getting 10 million a year and you are getting 1.5 million a year on media revenue I'm at an immediate advantage.

Secondly the success of the program is driven in part by money.

Conference affiliation creates ceilings for programs.

A team from the Sun Belt is never going to win a national title. They are also very unlikely to get into the new CFP even if they run the table. Their conference affiliation (weaker conference schedule) will get them passed over by another G5 who may have one loss.

So looking ahead.

PAC has their current 6 plus add UTSA, MEMPHIS,TULANE, USF.

MWC somehow cobbles together NMSU Texas State, North Texas and let's say Sam Houston State.

Boise goes 12-0 wins PAC

UNLV Also goes 12-0 wins MWC

Who gets the group of 5 bid?

Likely Boise based on tougher schedule.

More realistic scenario.

Both go 11-1. Boise still gets in. Now they start filling the 12 team playoffs.

Boise in. SEC champ in. ACC champ in. SEC champ in. BIG 10 Champ in. Big 12 Champ in. No way the powers that be aren't putting in the next best teams from the Big10 and SEC in. Those 12 spots are going to fill up quick and no way a second G5 program is going to get the nod.
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The one saving grace to that is the G5 play in tournament/game that has been suggested for that last playoff spot. That sounds good if you aren't in the best G5. Sounds bad if you are in the best G5 conference.
I think this year the MW is the best mostly die to the top of the conference.
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Unlv & Air Force in contact w/AAC

dcut03
Meister_Rebel said:
I think that UNLV and AF should be on the phone with the AAC, Memphis, and the other schools and let them know we would join them in their conference. It would keep the AAC alive. UNLV and Memphis could make a strong run each year for the CFP. It certainly help with both our strength of schedule in conference play. It would save them the 2 million dollars in travel costs if they stayed in the AAC. This would certainly give our basketball a breath of fresh air they need along with a new coach.
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I think UNLV and AFA will be risking a lot to jump to the AAC. At least anytime soon.
They would be paying 17 mil to enter a conference that could get gutted again. We would not be getting 7 mil and would likely never see a number close to that.
Memphis could say that they are staying and still leave.
Also if the aac does get gutted there is a chance that the remaining MW and AAC merge. Which would be better for UNLV. They get to NOT pay 17 mil and still get their cut of the exit fees from the other conferences.
I think this is the 3rd best case scenario after the Big 12 and the PAC
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Unlv & Air Force in contact w/AAC

Rebel1986
LVRebel2000 said:
That is a good article. It seems like Memphis would be most likely to stay and take their chances at getting into the Big 12 or ACC, but the big question is when that shake up is going to occur. It looked like the ACC was on the verge of melt down, but now it's not looking as bad as a few months ago. And Big 12 talked about continuing, but wanted to grab some of the prime ACC teams. So if they can't get ACC schools, do they stay put with what they have?

Or do they attempt to sabotage the plans of the new PAC and grab some or all of the Memphis/Tulane/UNLV group?
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I do not see how there would be any benefit for Memphis or Tulane to join the watered down PAC. The only way this could work would be if they had enough teams in the PAC on both the east and west coast, otherwise the other programs would be doing a lot of travelling across the country, not just in football, but also in all the other sports. It is unlikely that those two programs would see enough of an increase, if any, in the TV contract compared to what they currently get to offset the increased cost to the entire athletic department which would be into the millions. It appears that what will be left for the PAC is coming back to the MWC, or the few lower level schools in the American Conference, that are located in Texas or surrounding areas. These schools would include North Texas (2-1 2023 attendance 17,761), possibly Tulsa (1-2 2023 attendance 20,187), and UTSA (1-2 2023 attendance 28,876). They could also look at the Sun Belt West with Arkansas State (2-1 2023 attendance 16,747) and Texas State (2-1 2023 attendance 21,184) or Conference USA with UTEP (0-3 2023 attendance 18,160). In my believe, all of these schools are a big drop off from the current MWC with the possible exception of UTSA. The only school in the group with good attendance is UTSA. We never know what is going to happen until it happens, but I am starting to wonder if BSU and SDSU screwed the pooch again because of their ongoing greed?
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Bullmastiff 1
InZoneU said:
1000%. Conference affiliation is passe. Why worry about getting into a conference that provides the same exact path to the big goal?

I guess it depends on whether one thinks the TV money from conference affiliation is more important than the success of the program.
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If I'm getting 10 million a year and you are getting 1.5 million a year on media revenue I'm at an immediate advantage.

Secondly the success of the program is driven in part by money.

Conference affiliation creates ceilings for programs.

A team from the Sun Belt is never going to win a national title. They are also very unlikely to get into the new CFP even if they run the table. Their conference affiliation (weaker conference schedule) will get them passed over by another G5 who may have one loss.

So looking ahead.

PAC has their current 6 plus add UTSA, MEMPHIS,TULANE, USF.

MWC somehow cobbles together NMSU Texas State, North Texas and let's say Sam Houston State.

Boise goes 12-0 wins PAC

UNLV Also goes 12-0 wins MWC

Who gets the group of 5 bid?

Likely Boise based on tougher schedule.

More realistic scenario.

Both go 11-1. Boise still gets in. Now they start filling the 12 team playoffs.

Boise in. SEC champ in. ACC champ in. SEC champ in. BIG 10 Champ in. Big 12 Champ in. No way the powers that be aren't putting in the next best teams from the Big10 and SEC in. Those 12 spots are going to fill up quick and no way a second G5 program is going to get the nod.
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LVRebel2000
Meister_Rebel said:
Just navigate on this screen to the top right where it says colleges. Go down the drop down list to Pac-12. Then select Washington State from that next drop down list. WazzuWatch will now open on a new screen. Select Cougar Lair from the forum list. You should now be logged on with the same user name that you have on Rebel-Net.
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Yeah, I did that, and it shows me logged in with the same user name, but won't allow me to do anything.
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LVRebel2000
Loyal Coug1 said:
No, I used my same Rivals account. Did you go to the "Cougar Lair" board? Should be able to post no problem. I'm a premium member now, but was able to post there (and over here) before that as just a registered member. Maybe Meister can assist us.
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yeah, I went in the Cougar Lair, and opened the "Lots of stuff- Ole miss, Tulane/Memphis, UNLV/AF" thread but it doesn't give me an option to reply.
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