As a Ute fan first (as an alumni), and a UNLV fan third (my adopted team for no logical reason), I think Harper has done a fantastic job. I have no inside knowledge, but guess that UNLV with the bonus ends up with about 6 to 7 million dollars per year and the PAC whatever ends up with 8 to 9 million dollars per year. I didn't think it was worth the risk for UNLV to pay a buyout on the MWC contract of 10 million only to end up jumping to the Big 12 by 2030. If that does not work out, they can always jump to the best G5 conference on or before 2032.
However, the decision to do what they did represents betting on themselves. If they joined the Pac-whatever, they may not have had the resources to hire Mullen, fire Kruger, and hire Josh, or the money for NIL. Most Pac-whatever teams are not betting on themselves and instead betting on the strength of their future conference. SDSU has a small football stadium and they became a basketball school, while letting their football fall to mediocrity. They also have terrible leadership. BSU has a crap media market and I cannot see B12 or ACC considering them for both academic reasons, limited upside and limited market. FSU is limited academically and has limited upside, sharing a media market with other things. USU is a school that few in the State of Utah care about, even with a great football coaching hire. Honestly, after Utah and BYU, we view Utah State athletically as comparable to Weber State, UVU, and Salt Lake Community College. I can't see the Big12 or ACC considering schools located in BFE Washington State or Oregon media markets, when the Big 10 has Oregon and Washington. I see the value of OrState and WSU continuing to decrease over time. The Pac-whatever members may be tied at the hip to powerhouse media markets like Logan, Utah and Las Cruces, NM, while the MWC will have Las Vegas, the national following of Air Force, Hawaii for the obsessed bettors, a piece of Texas markets, and some presence in Cali and Arizona, spanning three or four time zones (forget which). I do believe that CSU would be considered for the Big 12 if Colorado leaves, but cannot envision them being considered while Colorado is there.
I think UNLV today is worth 8 to 10 million dollars, but believe that by the time they get accepted in the Big 12 before 2030, they will be worth around 20 million and increasing. I predict that along with UNLV, the Big 12 would consider Memphis and UCONN. I think the ACC would consider Tulane, UC Davis, and even UNLV and Memphis before considering schools such as SDSU, Fresno, OrState, or WSU. What UNLV needs to do? Don't worry about conferences other than the P4, invest, keep winning, and keep marketing.