Let me explain my numbers better.
First exit fees. I am basing on an assumption that the Exit fees will be 11 mil. I think that is a very safe assumption based off of all of the other exit fees that have have happened. And it is on the HIGH end based off of precedent. It would be similar to what the AAC detractors paid and I think that is a really good comp. But many of the other examples were significantly less. So I do think that the exit fees could easily be less than 11 mil per team.
Assuming that we get every last penny of the Poaching fees, that is where the lump sum of 14 mil came from. And 14 mil again is the MAX there.
Harper said the PAC was offering 6 mil in exit fee help. 11-6 is 5 mil. 5 mil + 14 is 19 mil. Meaning right off the bat there is a 19 million dollar swing when considering accepting a PAC invite vs staying in the MW. Going back to your point that we had to hire or extend a coach, which I agree with.
We may not have to pay that 5 mil up front as a lump sum, but for argument's sake let's go with that. 5 mil is a small enough number that makes sense anyway.
As for the MOA, again this is from UNLV
"According to a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by President Whitfield, the Mountain West will pay an estimated lump sum of $10-to-14 million to UNLV in 2025, and also pay UNLV approximately $1.5-to-1.8 million annually over a six-year period beginning in July 2026. The new payments are on top of the current revenue streams from existing contracts and media assets. The current media deal expires in June 2026 and negotiations for a new media deal will begin in the near future. The university will also have the flexibility to explore future membership in an autonomous “Power Four” conference without penalty should the opportunity become available."
So UNLV will get an absolute maximum 24.8 million dollars total from staying in the league. According to this it could be as low as 19 mil total. But again this is before the lawsuits, so that could less. None of these numbers are guaranteed, notice the "approximately" "estimated". There were other numbers rumored, but I believe this is what it was settled at.
AS for the PAC I think they will easily get 4 mil more per school than the MW. I just can't see how they cannot. I hope I am wrong, but I believe they took our best 4, combined them with 2 that would be at least no worse than those top 4, added our current mean (USU) And we are left with the leftovers and our replacement schools at best make things no worse, and and at worse make our payouts worse.
I didn't include the other 9-10.8 million because I think there will be at least a 4 mil difference in the league AND hopefully we are not in the MW after 6 years anyway. But assuming we get the max payout and there will be a 4 mil difference our break even point would just after the 6 year mark. After that we would be making more money from just the base contract alone in the PAC.
But there are other factors. It is safe to say the new PAC will be getting more tournament credits. only 50% are shared, but each school could still be taking home more since they took 4 or our best 6 basketball schools.
So my numbers are based on the actual signed MOU:
Signed MOU
It spells out the percentages to be paid at each collection milestone, which are based on dollar amounts and not where the payments are coming from.
I also only accounted for the first $100 million, which is easily accounted for within the $110 million you think is reasonable to expect to collect.
You also HAVE to include all of the money to be paid out over the course of time based on the MOU and then you can account for speculative differences in media payments.
And yes, hopefully we’re not able to collect all of that money because we’re not in the MW in six years, but at that point it doesn’t matter and you still count it now.
I don’t think the PAC is going to get $4million more per year, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, and they very well could. But even at that number, as you say, it takes a little more than six years to break even.
There are TOO many positives and negatives for both positions to factor in outside of just those simple “dollars and cents” points…
Yes, they’ll end up with more tournament credits and yes, they’ll have a better overall profile which probably equates to more money coming in.
I’d counter that this move enabled UNLV to continue to build on what was started with the football program, which will likely translate to greater attendance over the coming years and all the dollars that comes from that. It will also allow us to potentially “fix” UNLV basketball, which the right hire could do very quickly.
At the end of the day I think THE prudent decision was made to stay in the MW. Even if it doesn’t end up working out, I don’t believe you’ll be able to look back and say that wasn’t the case.
Maybe going to the PAC could be considered prudent as well, I think it’s less so, but I can see the argument.
And if we did I’d be talking all kinds of sh!t to Reno and UNM… but ultimately I think the right call was made.
