Line 'Em Up - Boise State at UNLV

[LasVegasReb]

I have been cautiously optimistic with Rebel predictions this year. I've tried to keep the scarlet colored glasses in check and think only Fresno State game did I predict wrong (actually I didn't even predict the FSU game, too many concerns). That being said, all bets are off or should I say on. I typically don't bet the Rebels (and will continue that trend), but the Rebels are ready for a big upset. I thought this upset would come from another team other than Boise State however there are too many variables in UNLV's favor.

These are not your typical variables as the Bronco's statistics basically trump UNLV in almost every category. Nope, some are timing, some are available personnel but most are intangibles. They all point to a unfathomable upset over a team usually considered and still the best team in the Mountain West.

As long as the Rebels keep Boise big play in check, they will be in this game from the beginning. The Bronco's will play this game a little safer after the fiasco at Utah State two weeks ago. And once Boise State feels like the game is in jeopardy, they'll push the envelope allowing the Rebels to pick up the necessary turnovers to seal the game.

Here are my list of intangibles (some tangible) and how this will lead UNLV to the most unlikely win of the season.

• Home game. Usually this doesn't mean much but it will for this game. It means no travel and playing in familiar confines. It means they can focus on this game and only this game.
• Bye week that contributes 15 days of rest and game preparation. The Rebels have been in need of some rest and reset. Although they have controlled injuries, these guys are banged up and the freshmen needed this breather. This week without a game plus the extra day will go a long way. While the athletes are benefiting, the coaching staff has significant time to put together a solid game plan.
• Decker returning to the line up. This is big beyond what Decker can do in a game. It takes pressure off Palandech and allows for this offense to be more diverse. Fred Wilson and Matt Lea return as well. Wilson's return is significant but I think Matt will play backup until his knee is proven and he returns to game shape.
• Boise State coming off road travel. It may be small factor, but travel adds up and impacts performance.
• Boise State with quite a few injured personnel. The final tally is complete but the Broncos will surely be without some key personnel.
• Highly inconsistent quarterback play for the Broncos. If the Rebels can get a decent pass rush going, they'll hopefully force Rypien into some ill advised play or grab a sack here or there.
• A Broncos ego the size of a 60-lb sack of potatoes. Harsin talks a good game about maintaining focus in this game but no one is giving the Rebels a second thought. This will come back to bite them. This is not your typical Rebels the conference is used to.
• The Rebels have nothing to lose. Every game is like a bowl game from here on out.

Just remember I said it first. Handicappers rely on statistics to predict games. They think the Rebels are a 2-5 team with the statistics to show. This is where statistics don't tell the whole story. The cannon is red and the Rebels will be eating smashed spuds this week. Bet on it.

UNLV 30 Boise State 28

 

[bcvegaspt]

I hope you're right!!!
That would be a huge feather in our cap.

 

[DocRebel]

The Rebels will be ready for Saturday.

 

[RebelTomola]

close one i think but defense wears down 38-40 Bosie

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Wrote about this game in another thread but my yake is UNLV will be within the 20 points the books are predicting. Something like 34-24 with Boise doing most of their damage late 3rd early 4th.

BUT....

If UNLV gets either a 1st quarter defensive score or scores off a 1st quarter interception I actually think they win the game. Boise QB is only going to be a couple weeks removed from an absolute disaster of a game. As a freshmen he may not handle any early adversity well. We get early points off a turnover I say, Boise QB struggles the rest of the day and Rebs hold on for big upset 27-24.

 

[Moscurry91]

I'm going 31-20 BSU

 

[RebelBuzz]

This game is so hard for me to predict. If we had beaten Fresno State handily (what should have happened after we got up by 14 in the second half) I would have no issue predicting a close loss or an upset. The FSU left me with a lot more questions than I had before. Up until FSU, I thought that the team had consistently shown up and that we were headed upward. Now, I'm left to question "which Rebels team is gonna show up?" I've asked myself that same question for many years, and this was the first time where I felt confident that the team wasn't gonna come out and lay a dud. Then FSU happened.

With that said, I think and hope that the FSU game was the exception, and not the rule. Even good football teams often have a "WTF happened?" game every year; I hope that FSU was that game for the Rebels.

Coming off a bye week the team should be focused, energized, and healthier than we've been since NIU. Getting Decker back should be a huge defense to the offense as teams will have to at least respect the pass.

Assuming that Decker is able to play the whole game, I think that the Rebels nearly pull off the upset, but fall just short: 31-34.

 

[LasVegasReb]

Now, I'm left to question "which Rebels team is gonna show up?"

The one with Decker, Wilson, Lea and a fresh and rested team.

I hear you and it's hard to state the Rebels can beat the Broncos without a feeling of insanity. But sometimes winning is more than just talent and history.

 

[rebneck]

This is a toughie to handicap, given all the injuries on the BSU side and Decker coming back after not playing for a few weeks. BSU still has too much depth and talent for UNLV to match up well, but the Broncos have been very unpredictable when it comes to the spread. Given that UNLV is coming off a bye while BSU is limping into a bye, I'll say BSU wins but UNLV gets the late cover, 30-17.

 

[j. spilotro]

I have been cautiously optimistic with Rebel predictions this year. I've tried to keep the scarlet colored glasses in check and I think only the Fresno State game did I predict wrong (actually I didn't even predict with game, too many concerns). That being said, all bets are off or should I say on. I typically don't bet the Rebels (and will continue that trend), but the Rebels are ready for a big upset. I thought this upset would come from another team other than Boise State however there are too many variables in UNLV's favor.

These are not your typical variables as the Bronco's statistics basically trump UNLV in almost every category. Nope, some are timing, some are available personnel but most are intangibles. They all point to a unfathomable upset over a team usually considered and still the best team in the Mountain West.

As long as the Rebels keep Boise big play in check, they will be in this game from the beginning. The Bronco's will play this game a little safer after the fiasco at Utah State two weeks ago. And once Boise State feels like the game is in jeopardy, they'll push the envelope allowing the Rebels to pick up the necessary turnovers to seal the game.

Here are my list of intangibles (some tangible) and how this will lead UNLV to the most unlikely win of the season.

• Home game. Usually this doesn't mean much but it will for this game. It means no travel and playing in familiar confines. It means they can focus on this game and only this game.
• Bye week that contributes 15 days of rest and game preparation. The Rebels have been in need of some rest and reset. Although they have controlled injuries, these guys are banged up and the freshmen needed this breather. This week without a game plus the extra day will go a long way. While the athletes are benefiting, the coaching staff has significant time to out together a solid game plan.
• Decker returning to the line up. This is big beyond what Decker can do in a game. It takes pressure off Palandech and allows for this offense to be more diverse. Fred Wilson and Matt Lea return as well. Wilson's return is significant but I think Matt will play backup until his knee is proven and he returns to game shape.
• Boise State coming off road travel. It may be small factor, but travel adds up and impacts performance.
• Boise State with quite a few injured personnel. The final tally is complete but the Broncos will surely be without some key personnel.
• Highly inconsistent quarterback play for the Broncos. If the Rebels can get a decent pass rush going, they'll hopefully force Rypien into some ill advised play or grab a sack here or there.
• A Broncos ego the size of a 60-lb sack of potatoes. Harsin talks a good game about maintaining focus in this game but no one is giving the Rebels a second thought. This will come back to bite them. This is not your typical Rebels the conference is used to.
• The Rebels have nothing to lose. Every game is like a bowl game from here on out.

Just remember I said it first. Handicappers rely on statistics to predict games. They think the Rebels are a 2-5 team with the statistics to show. This is where statistics don't tell the whole story. The cannon is red and the Rebels will be eating smashed spuds this week. Bet on it.

UNLV 30 Boise State 28

38-17 bad guys.

 

[RebelinWA]

I m calling an upset. 30-29 to the rebels.

 

[karaoke_jesus]

1 job Criswell. Catch the f'in football