I'm just surprised that the use of the word "outlier" is such a big deal.
As for the OP? Well there has been a downward trend with BSU over the past few seasons.
If dominos start to fall and we are competing with BSU for an invitation to a better conference, well it does matter.
Right now Boise is definitely the better football brand, no question. However, their brand is the only thing keeping them in the conversation. Their market sucks, location isn't great, academics aren't that great either.
UNLV has a terrible football brand, but all of the potential in the world. Market, facilities, etc.
What is the safer bet? Go with the better brand that is losing its luster already, or go with the bad brand that is set up for potential success?
I think the local support for the Aces actually helps UNLV. It shows that with success that Las Vegas sports fans will show up. It is not easy to sell the WNBA, college football and basketball are a much easier sell.
Recency bias shouldn't be a thing, but it is. And BSU getting spanked by a lower Pac 12 team does not help them much. If we were to beat Cal, or at least make a game out of it, then I think that may help UNLV, especially if things are starting to happen now.