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Small Margins make a difference

This post is a "What If" and those of you who don't like to play in that arena should just stop here. But it goes to show how what seems like a small pre-season decision can make a huge difference down the stretch.

Currently, we are 304th ( NCAA Stats) in rebound margin. We get three rebounds less per game than our opponents. If we were rebounding at @ 80th in rebound margin we would get a +2 margin. The difference is 5 additional possessions a game. According to KenPom we score @ 1.01 points per possession adjusted for the strength of the opponent. This equals 5 additional points per game.

Looking at our losses, 5 additional points would give us six close wins versus six close losses. ( Yes, I understand that many things could have come into play to keep a close loss a close loss but I refer you to the first sentence of the post before you start whining).

With the additional wins we would be 11-5 in the conference and 23 - 5 overall. We would be in 4th place ( 1 game behind Boise and Reno who would be tied for second) and still in a statistical hunt for first place in the Conference. There would be threads about how high we should be seeded in the NCAA's. Many on the board would be clamoring for a fast extension of KK's contract.

So, what was the small pre-season decision that made this difference? The decision that Iwuakor was a great overall athlete and he would improve and that Muoka was a really good rim protector and that fit into the overall strategy of "defense is good enough". The decision NOT to recruit over them was a huge error that ended up costing the program big.

A good rebounder ( 8-10 a game - Udeze getting 9.3 per game.) who only needed to score the occasional put-back could have made this one of the best seasons in years (And before you say Cottrell, look at his previous rebounding stats)

What can he say?

Most of us have our hopes set on KK getting at least 5 really good portal transfers. Impact players that can get us some traction towards post-season play.

But a question keeps nagging me. What can KK say during an in-home visit that would cause a player to choose us over dozens of other programs? KK's on the hot seat and all a transfer has to do is read the Tark board to find that out. The chances of post-season play are poor to non-existent. The country will only see you play if they stay up till 2 A.M. You will have nice facilities and a great arena but only about 1/5th of it will be filled with fans and only half of those them will cheer when the MC tells them that is what to do. When you talk to existing players they have to admit the season sucked.

I'm really glad I'm not the one that has to sit in front of a player and tell him how great it's going to be.

Hall

He's a fan favorite on this board. I get it. When he gets around the rim he can be dynamic. But he is a fouling and turnover machine and I hate to see him come in the game.

In his 167 minutes, he's had 16 turnovers and 30 fouls. As a comparison, Webster has 16 turnovers and 26 fouls but in 703 minutes.

No matter how entertaining, a coach can't give anyone big minutes who is that loose and out of control.

He could have a nice future in Basketball but he has to understand he can't treat this like high school. He can't dribble through three defenders and he can't matador defend.

Drummer

The in house DJ seems to get the students going at the games. But the guy drumming next to him is driving me crazy to the point I want to leave games early. Anyone else annoyed with this. I have skipped the last two games between the bad effort on the court and the ear f$&_ing from the drummer.

Line ‘em up: Predictions and Game Thread UNLV hosting Air Force

UNLV's best shot at a regular season win through the rest of the year (we host Utah and go to UNR to end things).

Guessing UNLV to be a 5 point favorite in this one. AFA hasn't beaten anybody of worth, unless you count the same sub-500 freefalling Lobos that UNLV beat.

If AFA is patient, and they usually are, it might be a tight one, especially if UNLV is just playing out the string. I'd say the Rebels are, but I feel they played relatively well and focused at Boise. So I think the difference in overall athleticism and speed will put things in the Rebels favor. The game is "not important" in that both teams will be playing on the first night (highly likely unless one of the teams wins out, not happening) of the MWCT, but it certainly can have an impact on seeding which would impact the matchup. Rebels are 8th of 11, can fall to 9th of 11, but could (highly unlikely) climb to the 6th spot by the end of the season. Any way you slice it, it's a downright ugly, disgusting and underachieving season. It was the refs, it was injuries, blah, blah, blah.

UNLV 72
AFA 67

Whaley

Nice article on our 2023 recruit. Looking forward to seeing him play and provide some interior strength, hopefully with DT feeding him. Perhaps there’s another stud on his No. 1 ranked JUCO team that he can bring with him.

RJ article on Kevin


So, were just supposed to act like these firsrt two years didn't happen and give the guy another 3 years to do the slow build we should have seen from the start? What about the part that he is simply not a good coach at this point in his career? Puzzling article to say the least.

Late post: Notes from signing day

Matt greene will most likely play dline

Irvin will be used as a wildcat QB/WR/returner

They like bringing in more DBs, WRs and RBs for special teams

Special teams will be a priority. (brought in 3 kickers)

Odom wants to build with high school players locally. He said will have a lot of 2024 commits and most of them showed up for junior day.

Zavier Carter is looked as an edge guy, but going to move him around. Starting LBs are looking like Carter, Scott and Eubank right now. Probably the most talent we’ve had at the position group in 20 years.

Odom likes having 2 main RBs (Davis and Reese will be fun to watch in this system) Sammy Green could be really interesting for 2024

Odom said there not done recruiting and will be another waive of signees in the spring.

They look for upside in recruiting, not stars.

Bo Edmunson tape looks great. Will be interesting between him and Maiva with who wins the job in two years.

Odom prefers not to play high schoolers until their 3rd year.

Brought in 4 Olineman and 3 DLine. They want to win in the trenches. Odom talked about it multiple times about developing lineman.

Bam Amina probably could have gotten a scholarship, but is coming in as preferred walk on sense he’s a local from Gorman.

Would like them to add a transfer for WR, LT and DT

They also prioritize having strong walk on classes.

Really like our top assistants. With Marion’s system should be able to manufacture a lot of yards on the ground with the buildup of Oline and misdirection plays. Sherer knows Odom’s defensive system well and has done a good job developing linebackers. Shiber seems like a steal for special teams previously coaching at the top programs in the country.

UNLV updated recruiting class 2023: Total 33 commits

QB- Bo Emundson 3* consensus Originally committed Mich st. Over 15 offers
Athlete- DeAngelo Irvin over Army, AF, & Navy
RB- Vincent Davis 3* transfer from Pitt
RB- Gary Quarles 3* transfer from Bama A&M
RB- Darrien Jones 3* by 247
RB- Jai’Den Thomas 2* rivals
WR- Rashawn Jackson 2* rivals
WR- Jacob DeJesus 2*
WR- Corey Thompson NR
Move TE- Charlie Williams 2* rivals
Y TE- Christian Earls 2* rivals over New Mexico
OL- Ed Haynes 3* consensus over OR st.+ AZ st.
OL- Jalen St. John 4* rivals transfer from Arkansas
OL- Jack Hasz Center transfer from Buffalo
OL- Austin Boyd 3* 247 over Army + NM st.
OL- Jayden Aboah preferred walk on
DL/OL- Matthew Greene 2* rivals
DE- Lucas Conti 3* consensus over multiple PAC 12 schools (Zona, AZ st, Colorado, Wash st, Minn)
DT- Maxwell Peterson 2* rivals
LB- Jackson Woodard transfer from Arkansas
LB- Bam Amina 3* transfer from Colorado st.
LB- Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu 3* over Reno
LB- JT Odom preferred walk on
CB- Jett Elad juco over Colorado st.
CB- Quentin Moten JC previously offered by BYU
CB Cam Jenkins 3* consensus over 20 offers
Safety- Jalen Frazier 3* transfer from NC st.
Safety - Jacob Turned transfer from Arizona
DB- Mekhi Mercer preferred walk on
K- Andre Meono transfer from Fresno St.
K- Jose Pezano transfer Missouri St.
k- Ramon Villela 5* kicker?

BYU vs UNLV flashback.

This was one of the biggest BS delays i have ever witnessed in person. We had them on the ropes and they allowed Emery to like take what seemed like a eternity to find his contact and put it back in. Never saw anything like it. U pull the player and get him back in in the next time out. It gave them motivation because of the BOOs and allowed their 2nd best player to stay in the game. Login to view embedded media
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