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Light at the end of the tunnel.

I’ve got a strong defense mechanism going here, or at least I’m trying to …. It’s way, way, way ahead of a schedule we’ve never even contemplated. And because of that, it won’t happen.

I originally thought we’d finish 8-4, 9-3 would be a really good season, 7-5 if the parts didn’t click.

We are on track for better than all of those. So anything we get is gravy.

Don’t know that this is true … but BSU is a long established program with their foundation in place. They didn’t get rattled. Executed their game plan from start to finish regardless of the game situation. They know how to win in tight games. UNLV isn’t quite at that point yet, maybe still too young. HOPEFULLY, with so many new faces next season, we get that carryover … the expectations, the accountability. That’s when you have a program instead of a team.

Local HS interest is up.

Odom flipped an SDSU recruit.

Despite UNLV losing a number of key guys next year I think Odom's recruiting strategy should prevent massive drop off in the W/L column.

He's plugging holes with the portal.

He's had strong recruiting classes.

He's making in roads locally.

True freshman are getting some meaningful game reps.

He seems to have a good eye for talent.

Seriously was anybody super excited about getting a transfer QB from Campbell University?

He seems to have a good feel for who fits what he wants to do on offense and defense.

GCU to the Mountain West

It has been Gonzaga, then St. Mary's in terms of quality WCC teams for the longest time. BYU threatening that #2 spot when they were there, but it wasn't every year.

St. Mary's has 11 NCAA tourney appearances in the modern era, with 6 wins and a S16 appearance.

GCU has 3 with no wins.

I think GCU is a lot like Tx state. A lot of students and potential, but they don't have the media numbers yet. I do think they are a team on the rise, but basically a bit of a flash in the pan so far.

I like the Add, but St. Mary's has been a better program, and that is unarguable. Does GCU have a higher ceiling? Perhaps. But we need quality teams to round out our basketball schedule, and SMU is more of a sure thing.
GCU has a win over St. Mary's last year.
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Light at the end of the tunnel.

Technically, we have not been eliminated from the Playoffs. Sure it becomes a lot tougher now. But the good news is this.

Our next 4 we should be favored. It seems most likely that we get another shot at Boise in the MW championship game.

The Playoff take the highest rated CONFERENCE CHAMPION. So winning out including that game could get us back in the conversation.

Navy got crushed by UND, Army has to play them too. Army and Navy play each other perhaps twice. So they may be looking at a 2 loss champion, without as good of a SOS.

A late season win at a 1 loss, likely top 12 Boise Team, may just be the most impressive win in the G5 at that point. The Syracuse loss right now has not aged well, hopefully they finish strong, but that is to be seen.

We need CSU to lose. They still have to go to Fresno on the road, which is likely the better team. But they do have a seat in the MWCG if they win out.

GCU to the Mountain West

They have almost 27K students on campus from the latest that I can find. The school has been around since 1949, so likely has a similar number of alumni from their brick and mortar school as UNLV plus a lot of online graduates who would either support GCU sports or no school at all. As a side note, Grand Canyon University has 10 national championships at the lower level prior to D1. If they are similar to the University of Phoenix, explain to me when the University of Phoenix started their athletics department. GCU has had athletics since 1949, which included a basketball team, so they have had athletics longer than UNLV. While GCU has only been D1 since 2013, that says a lot about the fact they already have become very competitive in most of their athletics, including basketball, in such a short time span. As for Saint Mary's they lost 75-66 last year in the playoffs to GCU. GCU also beat #4 seed Alabama 72-61 and #25 ranked SDSU last year. St. Mary's has a total student count of 2,775 as of fall 2023 compared to Gonzaga with about 7,500 students. With only 2,775 students, there is little likelihood that the athletic department will show any improvement in other programs and once Gonzaga is gone, the WCC will disappear in basketball relevance.

Boise State only moved up to division 1 in 2001, so the length of time really doesn't mean anything considering UNLV hasn't been to the basketball tournament in a long time (2013) while GCU has gone in 2021, 2023 and 2024.
It has been Gonzaga, then St. Mary's in terms of quality WCC teams for the longest time. BYU threatening that #2 spot when they were there, but it wasn't every year.

St. Mary's has 11 NCAA tourney appearances in the modern era, with 6 wins and a S16 appearance.

GCU has 3 with no wins.

I think GCU is a lot like Tx state. A lot of students and potential, but they don't have the media numbers yet. I do think they are a team on the rise, but basically a bit of a flash in the pan so far.

I like the Add, but St. Mary's has been a better program, and that is unarguable. Does GCU have a higher ceiling? Perhaps. But we need quality teams to round out our basketball schedule, and SMU is more of a sure thing.
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GCU to the Mountain West

Timezone is what drove the Pac/AAC talks. The media company that was dealing with them wanted to be able to have a prime slot ncaa game at every time zone.

In our case, Hawaii time moves the needle more than adding an east coast school. But both Niu and Toledo have success and have made waves on the national scene by beating ND and Mississippi state, respectively.

Do they add a lot to our current media deal? No. But specifically for UNLV, adding them doesn’t hurt us. I would argue that they bring more value than Wyoming, New Mexico, or New Mexico state.
Not just timezones, but teams with pull in those times zones.

Adding Memphis, UTSA, and USF isn't quite the same as Toledo and NIU.

I think they are decent adds from a competitive standpoint, but I think adding either or both reduces the per team payouts, not increases it.

We did that with UTEP because we NEEDED a 7th (then Hawaii for the 8th). All football add at this point need to at least keep the payout the same as without them, ideally increase it. I don't think any MAC, C-USA, or SBC team will do that at this point.

PAC HIRES OCTAGON

In my opinion, I believe this move was forced upon Gould. While the traitor schools have no official vote in the running of the pac; I wouldn’t mind be surprised if there haven’t been issues or questions with Pac leadership. The conference is in genuine danger of folding. Again. The options you have left on the table don’t hold water to “metrics” of our former traitor snob schools.

They had to keep initial 4 schools under wraps. So it's possible they couldn't hire a consultant/media evaluation company to start. But once you got Boise and company why not hire one then? Cats out of the bag at that point.

Then get solid numbers to present to Memphis vs the bad offer they laid out.

PAC HIRES OCTAGON

Ocams Razor maybe?

Without 12-15 million dollar media deal they aren't enticing Memphis and Co from the AAC. Travel costs don't make sense.

The AAC get 9 million per school. And that was with these schools factored into that deal.

Houston, Cincy, SMU (All left).

So their next deal may be less. Although they have bolstered by adding Army and a couple others.

If a lineup consisting of Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Cincy, Houston, USF only warranted 9 million, I'm not sure how the PAC gets to 12. I could be wrong and totally underestimating what the new PAC could draw. But without Memphis and Tulane I can't see their media deal being more than 7-8 million with current roster.

Line ‘em up: Predictions and Game Thread Boise

Schematically, the gogo not being as effective on the goal line makes sense. A big component in it is misdirection and the danger of getting cut up on a pass if teams are too aggressive. They don’t have the space for trickery at the goal line. Defenses just need to clog up the gaps, and be man on for everyone eligible.

Maybe its an issue with talent. But on paper, we have the guys to line up in a power I to run Texas. Our tight ends huge. Get in there and be big.

GCU to the Mountain West

True, but they are basically University of Phoenix that just started playing sports of any significant value.
St. Mary's has been a very good basketball program for a very long time. Thet are also in California. Small school, sure, but so is Gonzaga. They have a good brand.
GCU has potential, sure. But their numbers are grossly inflated by being a national online school, where the vast majority of students and alumni have little connection to sports teams.
They have almost 27K students on campus from the latest that I can find. The school has been around since 1949, so likely has a similar number of alumni from their brick and mortar school as UNLV plus a lot of online graduates who would either support GCU sports or no school at all. As a side note, Grand Canyon University has 10 national championships at the lower level prior to D1. If they are similar to the University of Phoenix, explain to me when the University of Phoenix started their athletics department. GCU has had athletics since 1949, which included a basketball team, so they have had athletics longer than UNLV. While GCU has only been D1 since 2013, that says a lot about the fact they already have become very competitive in most of their athletics, including basketball, in such a short time span. As for Saint Mary's they lost 75-66 last year in the playoffs to GCU. GCU also beat #4 seed Alabama 72-61 and #25 ranked SDSU last year. St. Mary's has a total student count of 2,775 as of fall 2023 compared to Gonzaga with about 7,500 students. With only 2,775 students, there is little likelihood that the athletic department will show any improvement in other programs and once Gonzaga is gone, the WCC will disappear in basketball relevance.

Boise State only moved up to division 1 in 2001, so the length of time really doesn't mean anything considering UNLV hasn't been to the basketball tournament in a long time (2013) while GCU has gone in 2021, 2023 and 2024.
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GCU to the Mountain West

Not exactly sure how the "time zone" really moves the needle.

MAC schools get 2.0-2.5 per year currently. Not sure how much NIU or Toledo move the needle. It seem like most MAC schools have similar value, unlike our conference where there are schools at the top that are worth significantly more.

Now if NIU and Toledo are football only and only get what Hawaii was getting then maybe. But they won't join for anything LESS than 2.5 million. So the math probably doesn't add up.
Timezone is what drove the Pac/AAC talks. The media company that was dealing with them wanted to be able to have a prime slot ncaa game at every time zone.

In our case, Hawaii time moves the needle more than adding an east coast school. But both Niu and Toledo have success and have made waves on the national scene by beating ND and Mississippi state, respectively.

Do they add a lot to our current media deal? No. But specifically for UNLV, adding them doesn’t hurt us. I would argue that they bring more value than Wyoming, New Mexico, or New Mexico state.

PAC HIRES OCTAGON

PAC recently hired consulting firm Octagon to help with finding media partners. Seems like maybe that should have been there 1st move? But I digress..

Would anybody else find it funny if Octagon and whatever media partner they land on told them a reverse merger makes the most fiscal sense..
In my opinion, I believe this move was forced upon Gould. While the traitor schools have no official vote in the running of the pac; I wouldn’t mind be surprised if there haven’t been issues or questions with Pac leadership. The conference is in genuine danger of folding. Again. The options you have left on the table don’t hold water to “metrics” of our former traitor snob schools.
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