Ok. Looking at the landscape and what's available would you be content if this was the new MWC lineup. I didn't include NIU because I don't see how it makes sense. (Be glad to have them. Just not sure it happens.
UNLV.
HAWAII
RENO
AFA
WYO
SJSU
UNM
TEXAS STATE
UTEP
NMSU
LA TECH
SAC STATE. (FCS)
SOLID
OR
HORSE POOP
I can’t see adding THAT many… too much dilution of what’s likely to be a bad media deal anyway.
I mean, it has to be what it has to be I guess, but god that’s gross.
Also, if your the PAC you still need one that’s likely coming from that same group, which is just gonna make you look terrible and likely cost everyone in the conference at least $1 million per year in revenue because of dilution. You’ve likely already diluted yourself with Utah State as well, so your per school distribution is taking a hit with the last two adds.
And you’re only at 8.
In the short term you’re fine I guess, but 8 isn’t a longer term solution and I don’t think you can stay at 8 for very long. I would think that you’d want to be at least 9, but preferably 10, and you’d like to be there within 4 years. So you’re really needing 3.
So in the next 4 years, who are you adding if your the PAC?
Due to the MW teams intentions to sign a GOR any team in our league is just gonna get WAY more expensive to add. The AAC ain’t no dummies either and they’re already working on solidifying their membership. Sure, you could take another run at them with a better offer, but it smells like another $50 million check you’re gonna have to write.
Then you have the fact that MORE realignment stuff is gonna happen and the Big 10 and the SEC are already talking… honestly nobody’s making many moves until they know what the really big dogs are doing.
I suspect that the ACC and the Big 12 are gonna be looking for teams REAL soon. Your teams are kinda screwed based on the agreements they’ve signed. UNLV left itself an out and got paid and the AAC 4 seem to be in good position should either the ACC or Big 12 come calling.
One unknown is that I don’t know what sort of outs Oregon St and Washington St left themselves, but there’s a real chance for comedy there in the next couple years.
So the PAC has painted themselves into a corner. The PAC 2 and the MW traitor 4 thought of themselves as so valuable that they didn’t want to share with the worst of the MW and now they’re gonna have to share with the worst of the rest.
Who exactly were the teams that were so horrible in the MW that you didn’t want to share? Let’s say it was as many as 4… Wyo, SJSU, UNR, and UNM? I didn’t include Hawaii because they’re not a full member anyway and doesn’t get paid as much.
So the math was that 4 out of potentially 14 teams were “dead weight”… 28.5%.
For now we’ll consider Utah St as not dead weight for them, even though they didn’t really want them, anyone else (unless they pull a coup somehow) is even more dead weight than anyone from the MW. So your “dead weight” as an 8 team conference is down to 12.5% IF you say that team is as valuable as anyone else in the MW, which you can’t.
At 9 teams with 2 bad teams 22%… 10 with 3 bad teams 30%… and again those are teams that are way worse than any of the original MW teams you didn’t want to share with… so the percentages are actually worse.
A merger is the way easier way out and offers the opportunity to create the best G5 conference. Create a fair conference that acknowledges its status as a G5, enact a conference scheduling format that ensures its champion a spot in the CFP 70% of the time (it can be done with good math and policy), and institute a fee structure for departing members that is a deterrent but not egregious. Though I’d have to give more thought to that last part.
Acknowledge who you are and set your teams up for the most success.
Or yeah… roll with what you can.
