j. spilotro said:

Our coach sucks. It took “Slow Growth” Odom a whopping 17 games to bring us from one of the historically worst programs and a perennial bottom 10 program to the top 25.

It should have taken 9 or 10 games if he was a real coach.

If you make the right hire for a program, more times than not you get the feeling right away, not a few years later. If you ain’t feeling it within the first couple of seasons - meaning ACTUAL growth, not “well, the losses were closer” or “we hit free throws better” - it ain’t going to happen.

Just get the job done, take full responsibility of the program, don’t blame facilities or the fans or a lack of time … excuses, excuses, excuses … slow growth is a loser mindset.

Aiming high and falling short usually yields better results than aiming low and hitting the target.

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Masked_rebel said:

The issue is the media deal expires in 2026 I believe. So even though they have 4 years to figure out survival course, they have 1 year to get axplan and make moves strong enough to get a media rights agreement that won't completely suck. It has to be more favorable than CUSA or WAC otherwise you're not getting teams to jump.

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Couev said:

Long term there's so many moving pieces it's impossible to figure out what's going to happen. So much will depend on whether or not the ACC survives as those rats try and abandon that ship.

My gut tells me that the new PAC wanted to get into the biggest markets they could from the MWC and they're hoping that CSU's reach is deeper into the Denver (#17 Nielson/#32 FCC market) then realistically it is right now. San Diego State (#30/#51) and Fresno-Visalia (#52/#72) are some of the larger western markets with no competing professional franchises--so in theory, better market penetration. And they've been pretty consistently good over the past 5 years in football (SDSU has been very good in basketball). Boise is a pick not for market size (#97/NR), but for their sports acumen. Historically been a good to excellent football program who play bigger teams on the road and perform and a consistently good to very good hoops program.

So, if that's their plan, then the next 2 teams should be Memphis (#50/#26) and one of the Texas schools (UTSA (#31/#45), Rice (#6/#15), North Texas (#5/#12) from the AAC with the undersanding that your Texas market penetration for those schools is not going to be as good (the AAC is only 10 million withdrawal fee with 2 years notice, whereas MWC schools are 17 million + 10 million to go to the PAC). I would also not be surprised to see Tulane (#52/#31) or South Florida (#31/#51) taken instead---and maybe more than 2 as they are pretty cheap in comparison.

The Vegas market is not bad (#40/NR) but it's very comparable to UAB (#46/40) and with probably lower market penetration because of how many transplants we have and the pro franchises--while Birmingham is going to have a lot of Bama and Auburn fans they still will have more eyes on college football TV sets--Hell a terrible UAB team that was almost cut for cost over 5 years has outdrawn UNLV significantly.

While we're putting together a good resume over the last 2 years in football our recent history is not good. Our basketball program right now is a hair above average. We have a very nice stadium--but LVCVA doesn't care about UNLV. If they can book a title game and bring in 30-40k people to the strip they will do that every time. They aren't going to turn away the business to give UNLV any bargaining chips.

I think our window is small, but still open. We need to start raising money to pay the 18 million buy out and move forward understanding that we either pay that or we actually get left behind for forever. I think the ACC court cases settling will determine when the next big reshuffling occurs. We can't operate under the assumption that anyone is going to help us with the exit fees--hell, it's even unclear how much the PAC2 is going to help the currently departing programs.

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

Interesting UNM to AAC. Would have thought CUSA made more sense.

CUSA might be a landing spot for Hawaii.

To be honest I'll take UNLV going to either the PAC or AAC. Both are better options than what will be left of the MWC.

CUSA would be a big drop from the MWC. Really hope that's not in the cards.

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Meister_Rebel said:

That CSU reach into the Denver market is just perception. I live in Colorado and only a CSU-RAM watches CSU-RAM games only if they follow sports. There are so many colleges and universities in Colorado it's even foolish to think that even the Univ. of Colorado owns the market. Most Coloradoans follow their professional sports and don't give a lot of attention to college sports.

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j. spilotro said:

If they don’t have the money and they make a move … and have to go on the extreme cheap …. Just offer a two year contract … yeah, not standard. Would drive some away. But some will take it because they’re hungry for the opportunity. I’d rather somebody know they have to get it done right away or they’re losing their job than giving a 5 year 2.5M for mediocre results and you can’t move on them. You can’t afford the Neon Deion way. A lot of cash for only flash. Flash doesn’t matter. Results do.

With hoops, where’s the improvement been? It took three freaking years to back into an NIT in a mediocre conference? Come on.

Recruiting bland, hasn’t paid dividends. Results very bland, bad losses outnumber strong wins.

I hope things change this year, maybe they will. If not, be done with it and move onto next.

Or if the uni wants to say “we are sinking all resources into football, football is what we are” not caring much about basketball, then extend him without a raise since the program won’t matter any longer. I’m fine with that as well.

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ckfitz said:

After researching, that's the only conclusion I could draw. I would expect that in the next democrat administration there will be a push to insure they have a path to citizenship.

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Couev said:

Long term there's so many moving pieces it's impossible to figure out what's going to happen. So much will depend on whether or not the ACC survives as those rats try and abandon that ship.

My gut tells me that the new PAC wanted to get into the biggest markets they could from the MWC and they're hoping that CSU's reach is deeper into the Denver (#17 Nielson/#32 FCC market) then realistically it is right now. San Diego State (#30/#51) and Fresno-Visalia (#52/#72) are some of the larger western markets with no competing professional franchises--so in theory, better market penetration. And they've been pretty consistently good over the past 5 years in football (SDSU has been very good in basketball). Boise is a pick not for market size (#97/NR), but for their sports acumen. Historically been a good to excellent football program who play bigger teams on the road and perform and a consistently good to very good hoops program.

So, if that's their plan, then the next 2 teams should be Memphis (#50/#26) and one of the Texas schools (UTSA (#31/#45), Rice (#6/#15), North Texas (#5/#12) from the AAC with the undersanding that your Texas market penetration for those schools is not going to be as good (the AAC is only 10 million withdrawal fee with 2 years notice, whereas MWC schools are 17 million + 10 million to go to the PAC). I would also not be surprised to see Tulane (#52/#31) or South Florida (#31/#51) taken instead---and maybe more than 2 as they are pretty cheap in comparison.

The Vegas market is not bad (#40/NR) but it's very comparable to UAB (#46/40) and with probably lower market penetration because of how many transplants we have and the pro franchises--while Birmingham is going to have a lot of Bama and Auburn fans they still will have more eyes on college football TV sets--Hell a terrible UAB team that was almost cut for cost over 5 years has outdrawn UNLV significantly.

While we're putting together a good resume over the last 2 years in football our recent history is not good. Our basketball program right now is a hair above average. We have a very nice stadium--but LVCVA doesn't care about UNLV. If they can book a title game and bring in 30-40k people to the strip they will do that every time. They aren't going to turn away the business to give UNLV any bargaining chips.

I think our window is small, but still open. We need to start raising money to pay the 18 million buy out and move forward understanding that we either pay that or we actually get left behind for forever. I think the ACC court cases settling will determine when the next big reshuffling occurs. We can't operate under the assumption that anyone is going to help us with the exit fees--hell, it's even unclear how much the PAC2 is going to help the currently departing programs.

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Masked_rebel said:

Edited. Misread first part

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rebelzzz said:

I have been calling everybody i know that might have some info on this. Take it how you want but what i am being told is minimum of 3 more teams will be announcing that they are leaving the MWC by end of football season ( UNLV, AF, Hawaii) Not all 3 to the PAC. Also told the PAC will have a presence in Texas. Dont be surprised is UNM ends up in the AAC.

If what i am told is true that is 8 schools leaving. Need a 9th so they can disolve the MWC. IMO UNR and Wyoming dont bring much in viewership. SJSU good market but they dont have much of any interest in their market. Utah St in a good market but the market is controlled by BYU and UoU. Even if one of those schools are grabbed by a conference that is 9 schools which os needed to vote to disolve the MWC but if once a school announces they are leaving they no longer have voting rights how do we get 9 votes to keep from having to pay exit fees?

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

Dude...

Read that post again.

I clearly said I don't think he's a money chaser. I also said there was a small list of jobs he might have left for if they came open before all this. Call them dream jobs even.

I simply think if there is upheaval and uncertainty surrounding the conference he may be more open to leaving.

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Mojo702 said:

Idk why the Big 12 doesn't add UNLV & AFA to make an 18 team, 2 division conference. The split between east & west schools via the map makes sense.

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reagan21 said:

The Arroyo firing was a surprise to most on campus, which is hilarious and goes to Joe's point. 95% of the department thought there would be at least one more season. I wish the University used the same lense to look at other sports on campus.

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j. spilotro said:

Our coach sucks. It took “Slow Growth” Odom a whopping 17 games to bring us from one of the historically worst programs and a perennial bottom 10 program to the top 25.

It should have taken 9 or 10 games if he was a real coach.

If you make the right hire for a program, more times than not you get the feeling right away, not a few years later. If you ain’t feeling it within the first couple of seasons - meaning ACTUAL growth, not “well, the losses were closer” or “we hit free throws better” - it ain’t going to happen.

Just get the job done, take full responsibility of the program, don’t blame facilities or the fans or a lack of time … excuses, excuses, excuses … slow growth is a loser mindset.

Aiming high and falling short usually yields better results than aiming low and hitting the target.

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Masked_rebel said:

What exactly has led you to believe he's a money chaser? Last year when asked he specifically said he has never been one to chase a job for a paycheck.
Honestly I don't think it affects him because his decision isn't something we can control. He's either going to be around at least another year or he's not and we don't control that and the conference affiliation doesn't control that. Next year will be the same teams and same conference still. After that, maybe we've had an incredible 2 seasons and don't need a Pac 2 invite..

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

100% it does.

I don't think he's a money chaser. I think he would only leave for a few select schools.

Now with this nonsense, I say the list of jobs he would leave for probably grew.

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Mojo702 said:

Does this whole mess affect Odom? Will he want to stay after this year if this doesn't get resolved in a positive way?

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dcut03 said:

I think the AFA would pick the PAC over the AAC. The payout is probably better, plus travel is much nicer. Sure, they have to play the other academies anyway, but that is 1 east coast trip a season. Much tougher to do with 6-7 trips a season.

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rebeltob said:

You would think that would be common sense although I really doubt they were let in “only” to increase a voting base, but I can’t find anything on policies, etc justifying letting so many in.

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dcut03 said:

I think the AFA would pick the PAC over the AAC. The payout is probably better, plus travel is much nicer. Sure, they have to play the other academies anyway, but that is 1 east coast trip a season. Much tougher to do with 6-7 trips a season.

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Bullmastiff 1 said:

If it's only 2..

UNLV and USU.

I think AFA may be AAC bound.

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