PAC HIRES OCTAGON

[RebelinWA]

I think people are overvaluing the “media value” of individual teams using traditional metrics. Are the brands of the teams in the new PAC better than the MW? Absolutely. But outside of the markets where those schools sit and any alumni based outside those markets, that’s kind of it.

That footprint itself has value, but are you really giving a shit about Boise vs StDSU at 10:00 pm on a Saturday night if you’re on the east coast?

Not unless you’re betting on it.

Team names matter less than they used to with the ability to bet on sports, and this has a huge impact on “value”.

Brands help from a marketing standpoint, but it’s definitely not the be all end all that it used to be. I’d argue that in a vacuum, UNLV vs Hawaii has as much value as Boise vs Utah State to a huge portion of the country… especially in September and October when there is less on the line.

The numbers get funky once you decide on a platform. Linear vs streaming. Linear is king, but its dying. Unless you have a strong brand following, you’re going to get garbage numbers from streaming platforms like trutv, or vero. Mediocre numbers = garbage media deal.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I think people are overvaluing the “media value” of individual teams using traditional metrics. Are the brands of the teams in the new PAC better than the MW? Absolutely. But outside of the markets where those schools sit and any alumni based outside those markets, that’s kind of it.

That footprint itself has value, but are you really giving a shit about Boise vs StDSU at 10:00 pm on a Saturday night if you’re on the east coast?

Not unless you’re betting on it.

Team names matter less than they used to with the ability to bet on sports, and this has a huge impact on “value”.

Brands help from a marketing standpoint, but it’s definitely not the be all end all that it used to be. I’d argue that in a vacuum, UNLV vs Hawaii has as much value as Boise vs Utah State to a huge portion of the country… especially in September and October when there is less on the line.

Bingo!

I read somewhere adding Hawaii as full member and getting them off that Spectrum deal they had would likely help keep the MWC media deal around the current 5 million. (Which considering what MWC lost if the media deal stays relatively the same that's a win for MWC). Hawaii plays a lot of late games, often the last game of the night. Never underestimate the power of the degenerate gambler demographic chasing their losses by betting the Hawaii games and tuning in.

Plus Hawaii itself is a sizeable market.

Say it again. PAC will get their 8. They'll likely get a better deal than the MWC but it won't be 12 million per with that lineup. I don't think Memphis alone gets them to much more than 8 -9 million which wouldn't be enough to lure Memphis to begin with.

I thought PAC circling back to UNLV had a .0001% chance of happening. Not sure it's going to happen but it wouldn't shock me if it did now.

 

[billd99s]

Talking about Media deals.

Does anyone know what the MW deal will look like 2 years from now? Hopefully we can at least triple our current one.

The MWC offer will be like the Colonial League. We have the weakest teams in the nation in football except for UNLV. Basketball makes sense in the Pac and why haven't the athletic director and president been fired yet. There is no chance the balloon of a tv revenue equal to now is ridiculous. BSU,SDSU, CSU, FSU, Gonzaga and the other schools make a mockery of the so called power conference of UNLV, NM, UTEP, Wyoming, Nevada, Air Farce. People will not tune in to watch the MWC and everyone knows it except the brain trust at UNLV and some members of the media.

 

[ckfitz]

Bingo!

I read somewhere adding Hawaii as full member and getting them off that Spectrum deal they had would likely help keep the MWC media deal around the current 5 million. (Which considering what MWC lost if the media deal stays relatively the same that's a win for MWC). Hawaii plays a lot of late games, often the last game of the night. Never underestimate the power of the degenerate gambler demographic chasing their losses by betting the Hawaii games and tuning in.

Plus Hawaii itself is a sizeable market.

Say it again. PAC will get their 8. They'll likely get a better deal than the MWC but it won't be 12 million per with that lineup. I don't think Memphis alone gets them to much more than 8 -9 million which wouldn't be enough to lure Memphis to begin with.

I thought PAC circling back to UNLV had a .0001% chance of happening. Not sure it's going to happen but it wouldn't shock me if it did now.

The Hawaiian market is important to Las Vegas. Great turnout at games and they love Las Vegas casinos.

 

[RebelinWA]

The MWC offer will be like the Colonial League. We have the weakest teams in the nation in football except for UNLV. Basketball makes sense in the Pac and why haven't the athletic director and president been fired yet. There is no chance the balloon of a tv revenue equal to now is ridiculous. BSU,SDSU, CSU, FSU, Gonzaga and the other schools make a mockery of the so called power conference of UNLV, NM, UTEP, Wyoming, Nevada, Air Farce. People will not tune in to watch the MWC and everyone knows it except the brain trust at UNLV and some members of the media.

I don’t think people realize how close our schools are in media market value. Yes, most of the schools that left are in the top half. But its not as far as a gap of lets say Oregon state and Oregon.

Congratulations, Sdsu and Boise might make a more media views than UNLV on a specific week. But its a factor of thousands to tens of thousands.

Oregon State-Cal put up 183k on ESPN
UTEP-CSU put up 56k on trutv
UNLV- Oregon State put up 507k on CW
UNLV-Syracuse had 698k on FS1
Hawaii-Washington State did 258k on CW
Boise- Utah state did 239k on FS1
Fresno State- UNLV did 174k on FS1

We are fighting over small increments of viewership. NONE of the schools in the MW or Pac are the hotness of media.

Meanwhile,
Oregon-Illinois put up 2.7m on CBS
Nebraska-Ohio state put up 5.96m on Fox
Georgia- Texas put up 13.19m on ABC

If I am a media director, with a limited budget, limited resources, and only incremental time slots, where am I putting my focus, time, energy, and dollars? Its not to the MW or Pac.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

The Hawaiian market is important to Las Vegas. Great turnout at games and they love Las Vegas casinos.

Yep.

They were a smart add as full member. I admit I was wrong about the importance of Hawaii in the past. Never thought much of them in terms of potential impact on media deals.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

The MWC offer will be like the Colonial League. We have the weakest teams in the nation in football except for UNLV. Basketball makes sense in the Pac and why haven't the athletic director and president been fired yet. There is no chance the balloon of a tv revenue equal to now is ridiculous. BSU,SDSU, CSU, FSU, Gonzaga and the other schools make a mockery of the so called power conference of UNLV, NM, UTEP, Wyoming, Nevada, Air Farce. People will not tune in to watch the MWC and everyone knows it except the brain trust at UNLV and some members of the media.

It's already been reported the MWC next media deal likely to remain around 5 million.

 

[InZoneU]

The MWC offer will be like the Colonial League. We have the weakest teams in the nation in football except for UNLV. Basketball makes sense in the Pac and why haven't the athletic director and president been fired yet. There is no chance the balloon of a tv revenue equal to now is ridiculous. BSU,SDSU, CSU, FSU, Gonzaga and the other schools make a mockery of the so called power conference of UNLV, NM, UTEP, Wyoming, Nevada, Air Farce. People will not tune in to watch the MWC and everyone knows it except the brain trust at UNLV and some members of the media.

I get you. But nobody outside of the PAC and MWC footprints give a flying fck about either league. Facts are this: UNLV has an easier shot right now at a playoff bid just staying where we're at. And we got money for standing pat instead of bailing. And none of this is going to matter in 2-3 years once the inevitable split happens.

 

[oneepstein]

Bingo!

I read somewhere adding Hawaii as full member and getting them off that Spectrum deal they had would likely help keep the MWC media deal around the current 5 million. (Which considering what MWC lost if the media deal stays relatively the same that's a win for MWC). Hawaii plays a lot of late games, often the last game of the night. Never underestimate the power of the degenerate gambler demographic chasing their losses by betting the Hawaii games and tuning in.

Plus Hawaii itself is a sizeable market.

Say it again. PAC will get their 8. They'll likely get a better deal than the MWC but it won't be 12 million per with that lineup. I don't think Memphis alone gets them to much more than 8 -9 million which wouldn't be enough to lure Memphis to begin with.

I thought PAC circling back to UNLV had a .0001% chance of happening. Not sure it's going to happen but it wouldn't shock me if it did now.

Yeah… I don’t see circling back to UNLV as in the cards, but I too wouldn’t be surprised.

And yes, the PAC will get more per team, but it won’t be so much more that ANY of what they did will end up being justified.

Realistically the MW should just wait for any PAC media deal to be done and let the market adjust.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Yeah… I don’t see circling back to UNLV as in the cards, but I too wouldn’t be surprised.

And yes, the PAC will get more per team, but it won’t be so much more that ANY of what they did will end up being justified.

Realistically the MW should just wait for any PAC media deal to be done and let the market adjust.

Tough call. I'll be interested to see what an NIU or Toledo do for a media deal. (if anything)

I'm also not sure how much inventory Gloria wants to load up on.

I see the argument to staying small (8-9) teams. There's definitely merit to it.

But every school MWC adds is one off the table for PAC. It also drives up the price for the PAC because schools know they need them to get to 8.

AAC commissioner is 100% looking for ways now to drive up the price and keep his schools/conference intact.

 

[bcvegaspt2]

They love the Cal casino.

Fixed it for you

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Question for everybody..If you were a media partner what lineup do you think you could get a better deal for?

This was the AAC lineup that got them 9 million per year. (Not listing entire AAC just the 'top end')


SMU
CINCY
MEMPHIS
TULANE
HOUSTON
UCF
USF

Vs

Boise
Fresno
CSU
USU
OSU
WSU
SDSU

AAC had some massive TV markets and got 9 million.

 

[RebelinWA]

Question for everybody..If you were a media partner what lineup do you think you could get a better deal for?

This was the AAC lineup that got them 9 million per year. (Not listing entire AAC just the 'top end')


SMU
CINCY
MEMPHIS
TULANE
HOUSTON
UCF
USF

Vs

Boise
Fresno
CSU
USU
OSU
WSU
SDSU

AAC had some massive TV markets and got 9 million.

No question, the AAC is worth more than the Pac.

The Pac has decent football, but they don’t command the control of the markets like the AAC schools do. Sure, BSU has all of Boise. But realistically, a better comparison to Boise for media market and competition is not UNLV, but… UTEP, 996k vs 865k(BSU). UTEP’s area is larger and growing.

Lets look at Corvalis (OSU) and Pullman (WSU). Both of those cities rival in population… Pahrump 44k vs 61k(OSU) vs 32k (WSU).

UTEP is a 3 seasons of football success away from having more market potential than Boise. The schools are roughly the same size, and have the same amount of same market saturation competition.

The only school in the Pac with legitimate p4 potential in several sports, alright academics, a decent market, and a valuable footprint is SDSU. SDSU’s brand jumped in value the moment the Chargers left town. SDSU also happens to have the third highest athletic debt of any university in the nation.

Rank	School	Outstanding Athletics Debt 2022-23
1	California	$439,363,996
2	Arizona State	$312,890,623
3	San Diego State	$308,480,551
4	Ohio State	$300,826,274
5	Illinois	$291,882,647
6	Georgia Tech	$285,200,253
7	Texas A&M	$269,163,500
8	Michigan	$250,581,000
9	Washington	$244,444,707
10	Iowa	$235,125,162

Source: https://www.sportico.com/business/c...finances-database-intercollegiate-1234646029/

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I think you're right about Boise St and SDSU.

If Octagon end up suggesting to them a reverse merger as a best case scenario, Gloria should offer WSU and OSU a sweet UNLVesque package. Give them a free-pass to leave for a p4, cut their poaching fee in half, a larger cut of the media rights, and most importantly, leave STDSU, Boise St, and the Utah State Diddlers out to dry. CSU and Fresno would be given a 2nd chance with UTEP's similar package.

I can dream. It would definitely save the PAC2 a ton of money.

As much as I would like to extract a pound of flesh from SDSU and Boise I think if a reverse merger were in the works you do it with the least amount of animosity possible.

Last thing you want is invite them back in and they still have one foot out the door. Boise just got a 25 million dollar donation. Exit fees won't be an issue for them I don't think.

Agree on OSU and WSU and free pass to a P4. I think there is little to no chance either get invited. They were free agents essentially after PAC imploded. Big12 saw no value in bringing them in. That alone should be telling.

BIG10 saw no value even though it would have added a travel partner for Oregon and Washington.

 

[dcut03]

It's already been reported the MWC next media deal likely to remain around 5 million.

Do you have a source? All I have heard is Gloria promising our teams that the media deal will "stay about the same". Which really feels like a hopeful, but empty promise.

 

[dcut03]

I think people are overvaluing the “media value” of individual teams using traditional metrics. Are the brands of the teams in the new PAC better than the MW? Absolutely. But outside of the markets where those schools sit and any alumni based outside those markets, that’s kind of it.

That footprint itself has value, but are you really giving a shit about Boise vs StDSU at 10:00 pm on a Saturday night if you’re on the east coast?

Not unless you’re betting on it.

Team names matter less than they used to with the ability to bet on sports, and this has a huge impact on “value”.

Brands help from a marketing standpoint, but it’s definitely not the be all end all that it used to be. I’d argue that in a vacuum, UNLV vs Hawaii has as much value as Boise vs Utah State to a huge portion of the country… especially in September and October when there is less on the line.

I don't know.

If the top and bottom of the MW was really close, then we would have a merger right now, 100%

Betting? That really has no bearing on this argument, because sure, any game has potential for degenerate gamblers, especially if the game is televised somewhere.

What does matter is how many eyeballs regularly watch a particular teams games on TV. That's it.

We can cherry pick numbers this year, and that would be to our favor, but it probably wouldn't be that smart to do that.

Hell UNLV has been on the national talking head shows for a few different reasons. Have had all games but one put on an actual channel, and have had more than our fair share of Friday games with much less competition. Honestly our TV viewership should be better than it is. And that is knowing that we probably will have near the best viewership of the entire conference this year.

But it took the most important game in franchise history to get 40k to watch a game. Who knows what happens after that.

Big State schools go well beyond their immediate markets in terms of media value. We need to stop looking at small college towns media markets as something that really matters for this.

It is true that none of the teams left in the PAC and MW will draw that many national fans, unless there is some extra juice to it. UNLV's drama helps, Jeanty having a Heismann quality season, sure. Also the playoff angle this season is helping as well I think. But for us in the G5, it comes down to how many fans of our teams watch them on TV. I think UNLV does better than their home attendance might dictate, but not by much. I

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I don't know.

If the top and bottom of the MW was really close, then we would have a merger right now, 100%

Betting? That really has no bearing on this argument, because sure, any game has potential for degenerate gamblers, especially if the game is televised somewhere.

What does matter is how many eyeballs regularly watch a particular teams games on TV. That's it.

We can cherry pick numbers this year, and that would be to our favor, but it probably wouldn't be that smart to do that.

Hell UNLV has been on the national talking head shows for a few different reasons. Have had all games but one put on an actual channel, and have had more than our fair share of Friday games with much less competition. Honestly our TV viewership should be better than it is. And that is knowing that we probably will have near the best viewership of the entire conference this year.

But it took the most important game in franchise history to get 40k to watch a game. Who knows what happens after that.

Big State schools go well beyond their immediate markets in terms of media value. We need to stop looking at small college towns media markets as something that really matters for this.

It is true that none of the teams left in the PAC and MW will draw that many national fans, unless there is some extra juice to it. UNLV's drama helps, Jeanty having a Heismann quality season, sure. Also the playoff angle this season is helping as well I think. But for us in the G5, it comes down to how many fans of our teams watch them on TV. I think UNLV does better than their home attendance might dictate, but not by much. I

Go look at how much money gets laid on Hawaii games because they tend to be the last game of the night. They draw some eyeballs. There's a reason there are reports MWC media deal will not be nearly as bad as many estimated and Hawaii is a big part of that.

Last I looked we have more avg viewers than a number of the PAC schools so I'm good with what our viewership has been.

We also didn't have a 'marquee' opponent like CSU did with CU who is pulling massive numbers. Outside of Oregon game, Boise TV viewership numbers are pedestrian.

PAC pitched 12-15 million media rights.

Barring a complete reversal and the 4 AAC schools actually joining they likely aren't sniffing that.

AAC with Houston, Cincy, UCF, USF, SMU, Memphis and Tulane pulled a 9 million per deal.

Those are some absolutely massive markets. Not to mention this was when Cincy was top 10ish. Houston was doing well under Herman SMU was on the up and Memphis was solid.

PAC didn't hire Octagon because things are going according to plan.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Do you have a source? All I have heard is Gloria promising our teams that the media deal will "stay about the same". Which really feels like a hopeful, but empty promise.

McMurphy I believe after the Hawaii decision said MWC still in line for close to what they were getting last deal.

 

[dcut03]

@dcut03

Looking at time lines of how this all unfolded and based on comments from WYO AD this thing was being planned as far back as before MWC media days.

SDSU and Boise 'owe' the MWC nothing.

But they along with OSU and WSU vastly overestimated the value of the PAC brand.

Will PAC get a better media deal than the MWC? Yep. 3x as much? Like the 15 million they were floating? No. Not even close to that. They'llbe lucky to get 10 million.

Think of it this way. AAC got 9 million per school with a lineup of..

Houston, SMU, CINCY, Memphis, Tulane and USF. All sizeable TV markets. And this was when Cincy was was really really good and Houston was in the Tom Herman era winning 9+ games a year and SMU was getting things turned around.

I'm not sure the PACs lineup is all that much better than the AAC at that time.

Was a reverse merger in their best interest? Maybe maybe not.

But getting to 8 teams as soon as possible was definitely in their best interest. Had they included UNLV and USU in initial plans they'd be set and in a much stronger bargaining position.

Now everybody out there can wait them out for the best deal possible because the PAC needs to get an 8th member.

If they circle back to Memphis they are going to have to spend way more money than they had intended. Memphis and Tulane have them by the short hairs. PAC has to get a media deal that exceeds 9 million per school.

Not asking sarcastically but for Memphis and Tulane is anything short of 12 million per year enough to compensate for all the increased travel? I'm not sure that it is to be honest.

PAC will land on their feet but there is no way they anticipated being in the spot they are in right now.

I think we are basically saying a lot of the same things with slightly different angles.

Have the PAC overestimated their brand? Maybe a little. It is a better brand than the MW, that is for sure. Even if everyone knows that they are going to be just another G6 league. They said from the beginning that they were "swinging for the fences" which makes me think that they weren't exactly counting on landing the AAC teams right away. But I think they are trying to act like the big boys with their name and legacy, even though they don't fully believe it.

It seems hard to reference older TV contracts at this time. I agree that 9 mil for the old AAC is difficult to beat, but that was before these college media contract nearly doubled. Case in point, if in actuality the MW does keep their same per team media value after losing their top 4 markets, then we know things are not the same.

I don't think that the PAC will add Memphis at this point but the argument they might is that will not be making that 9 million forever. It has been said that the new teams will be making the same as the old teams, which means their payouts will be reducing soon. So they may not have to beat 9 million, but I think they easily could if they were to add them now. But I don't think it will happen because at least Memphis is likely a prime target for the Big 12 and the AAC.

Teams to keep an eye on could be UTSA and/or Rice. Both in great Texas markets. They aren't getting 9 mil now, and their travel would be much more manageable. Neither are likely candidates for the P4. Both play in big stadiums. Since they make less, their negotiated exit fees could be less. But they are also recent AAC adds, so that may counter that. Not sure.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I don't know.

If the top and bottom of the MW was really close, then we would have a merger right now, 100%

Betting? That really has no bearing on this argument, because sure, any game has potential for degenerate gamblers, especially if the game is televised somewhere.

What does matter is how many eyeballs regularly watch a particular teams games on TV. That's it.

We can cherry pick numbers this year, and that would be to our favor, but it probably wouldn't be that smart to do that.

Hell UNLV has been on the national talking head shows for a few different reasons. Have had all games but one put on an actual channel, and have had more than our fair share of Friday games with much less competition. Honestly our TV viewership should be better than it is. And that is knowing that we probably will have near the best viewership of the entire conference this year.

But it took the most important game in franchise history to get 40k to watch a game. Who knows what happens after that.

Big State schools go well beyond their immediate markets in terms of media value. We need to stop looking at small college towns media markets as something that really matters for this.

It is true that none of the teams left in the PAC and MW will draw that many national fans, unless there is some extra juice to it. UNLV's drama helps, Jeanty having a Heismann quality season, sure. Also the playoff angle this season is helping as well I think. But for us in the G5, it comes down to how many fans of our teams watch them on TV. I think UNLV does better than their home attendance might dictate, but not by much. I

Fresno draws 40k. They always support. Same with Boise.

UNLV attendance this year closing in on CSU. Better than SDSU and USU.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I think we are basically saying a lot of the same things with slightly different angles.

Have the PAC overestimated their brand? Maybe a little. It is a better brand than the MW, that is for sure. Even if everyone knows that they are going to be just another G6 league. They said from the beginning that they were "swinging for the fences" which makes me think that they weren't exactly counting on landing the AAC teams right away. But I think they are trying to act like the big boys with their name and legacy, even though they don't fully believe it.

It seems hard to reference older TV contracts at this time. I agree that 9 mil for the old AAC is difficult to beat, but that was before these college media contract nearly doubled. Case in point, if in actuality the MW does keep their same per team media value after losing their top 4 markets, then we know things are not the same.

I don't think that the PAC will add Memphis at this point but the argument they might is that will not be making that 9 million forever. It has been said that the new teams will be making the same as the old teams, which means their payouts will be reducing soon. So they may not have to beat 9 million, but I think they easily could if they were to add them now. But I don't think it will happen because at least Memphis is likely a prime target for the Big 12 and the AAC.

Teams to keep an eye on could be UTSA and/or Rice. Both in great Texas markets. They aren't getting 9 mil now, and their travel would be much more manageable. Neither are likely candidates for the P4. Both play in big stadiums. Since they make less, their negotiated exit fees could be less. But they are also recent AAC adds, so that may counter that. Not sure.

'Have the PAC overestimated their brand? Maybe a little.'

Anything less than 12 million is not what Boise/SDSU/CSU and Fresno signed up for.

 

[dcut03]

Go look at how much money gets laid on Hawaii games because they tend to be the last game of the night. They draw some eyeballs. There's a reason there are reports MWC media deal will not be nearly as bad as many estimated and Hawaii is a big part of that.

Last I looked we have more avg viewers than a number of the PAC schools so I'm good with what our viewership has been.

We also didn't have a 'marquee' opponent like CSU did with CU who is pulling massive numbers. Outside of Oregon game, Boise TV viewership numbers are pedestrian.

PAC pitched 12-15 million media rights.

Barring a complete reversal and the 4 AAC schools actually joining they likely aren't sniffing that.

AAC with Houston, Cincy, UCF, USF, SMU, Memphis and Tulane pulled a 9 million per deal.

Those are some absolutely massive markets. Not to mention this was when Cincy was top 10ish. Houston was doing well under Herman SMU was on the up and Memphis was solid.

PAC didn't hire Octagon because things are going according to plan.

But for everyone but WAZZU and OSU, going to the PAC will be a good deal for them. I think that is lost. Going from a base 5 to a base 9 is pretty good. Even if they pay 100% of their negotiated exit fees. They will make more per year that first season if they pay off their exit fees in 3-4 years.

CSU may be getting inflated number with that CU game, but they play them every year. They will get a guaranteed bowl game audience every year. It's not like us using the Michigan from last year to pad our numbers.

Hawaii helps, but if their market was so great, they would have been a full time member long ago. 1.5 mil in the islands in total. Sure they have a good amount of mainlanders too. I am glad we added them as a full time member, don't get me wrong.

But if we are getting 5, the Pac is at least getting 9. Right now their worst market is USU and they are probably worth 5.

I am not saying that the PAC is just fine and dandy. They whiffed and don't know what to do next which is why they hired Octagon.

I also think there is a late night audience. I have been out in Texas late and have watched some PAC 12 football.

But there is a reason why the PAC was getting 20 while other big conference were getting 30-40. Not enough national fans to watch those late games.

 

[dcut03]

Fresno draws 40k. They always support. Same with Boise.

UNLV attendance this year closing in on CSU. Better than SDSU and USU.

We are having our best season of all time.

CSU is underwhelming. Boise is Boise. SDSU had one of it's worst seasons of all time last year and we had our best in years and they outdrew us. This year has not been that great either.

Fresno is a have a good year, but a bit down from where they are used to. Tedford retiring late probably hurt a lot.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

We are having our best season of all time.

CSU is underwhelming. Boise is Boise. SDSU had one of it's worst seasons of all time last year and we had our best in years and they outdrew us. This year has not been that great either.

Fresno is a have a good year, but a bit down from where they are used to. Tedford retiring late probably hurt a lot.

UNLV is trending in a good direction and battling decades of mediocrity.

 

[RebelinWA]

But for everyone but WAZZU and OSU, going to the PAC will be a good deal for them. I think that is lost. Going from a base 5 to a base 9 is pretty good. Even if they pay 100% of their negotiated exit fees. They will make more per year that first season if they pay off their exit fees in 3-4 years.

CSU may be getting inflated number with that CU game, but they play them every year. They will get a guaranteed bowl game audience every year. It's not like us using the Michigan from last year to pad our numbers.

Hawaii helps, but if their market was so great, they would have been a full time member long ago. 1.5 mil in the islands in total. Sure they have a good amount of mainlanders too. I am glad we added them as a full time member, don't get me wrong.

But if we are getting 5, the Pac is at least getting 9. Right now their worst market is USU and they are probably worth 5.

I am not saying that the PAC is just fine and dandy. They whiffed and don't know what to do next which is why they hired Octagon.

I also think there is a late night audience. I have been out in Texas late and have watched some PAC 12 football.

But there is a reason why the PAC was getting 20 while other big conference were getting 30-40. Not enough national fans to watch those late games.

I still don’t see the math to get them to a base 9. I haven’t seen anything credible that can get them to match the AAC’s 13 full time members and 6 affiliated members. Other than SDSU and I sometimes Boise, the rest of the schools don’t drive enough viewership.

I thoroughly believe that all of the traitor school ADs will get fired for this move down the road.

 

[Rebel1986]

We are having our best season of all time.

CSU is underwhelming. Boise is Boise. SDSU had one of it's worst seasons of all time last year and we had our best in years and they outdrew us. This year has not been that great either.

Fresno is a have a good year, but a bit down from where they are used to. Tedford retiring late probably hurt a lot.

SDSU did outdraw UNLV, but that was mostly due to the UCLA game with over 32K fans in attendance.

CSU had done well with attendance this year. While they did get 40,099 for the Colorado game, they had 36,573 in attendance for Northern Colorado. In five games they have averaged 34,017 this year which is significantly better than UNLV.

Boise State has averaged 37,298 in three games this year

SDSU has average 27,186 this season with a total of 4 games. This included games with Oregon State and Washington State which averaged only about 26K per game and a crowd of 31,307 for the Hawaii game.

UNLV has averaged 30,677 for four games with an average of almost 37K for the last two games.

 

[dcut03]

'Have the PAC overestimated their brand? Maybe a little.'

Anything less than 12 million is not what Boise/SDSU/CSU and Fresno signed up for.

Maybe, we don't know that for sure. I'm sure they were hooked in with dreams of that number (12-15), but again from the beginning they were 'shooting for the fences", so I'm sure they were given a range and not promised that number.

It doesn't seem that they expected us or AFA to turn them down. So sure I am guessing they are annoyed, but I doubt they are livid

But bottom line, All MW teams are getting upgraded. More money than now, more money than a merger, and with the very well established precedent of exit fees getting negotiated down, they can pay off those fees over time themselves and still net more per year than they are now. But it sure sounded like they will be getting help for the exit fees, if not having them paid in full. Plus they don't have to go to Wyoming which is a travel nightmare, especially for basketball. Hawaii too. A better conference top to bottom. Not P4, but they have a step up on all other "G" conferences.

Are they pissed? Probably. But I doubt they are livid. They are upgrading whichever way you slice it.

The PAC 2 have the most to complain about, but it was their actions that started all of this. So what are you going to do? They made this bed.

 

[dcut03]

UNLV is trending in a good direction and battling decades of mediocrity.

No doubt. But it hurts us now. Because we need historical data to show our worth. Right now a "good" UNLV team is showing similar to worse interest to a "bad- so below average" SDSU and CSU.

Number have been going the right direction and I am proud of the Boise turnout. The next home game will tell a lot. Was the Boise a flash in the pan? Can we retain some of those fans even though we lost?

We don't have much luxury to wait. Honestly the better we do now helps the next MW contract, but more importantly we need better support to make that jump to B12.

It helps if we keep winning, and hopefully we do that. Probably our most difficult for the rest of the regular season this week in Hawaii.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

No doubt. But it hurts us now. Because we need historical data to show our worth. Right now a "good" UNLV team is showing similar to worse interest to a "bad- so below average" SDSU and CSU.

Number have been going the right direction and I am proud of the Boise turnout. The next home game will tell a lot. Was the Boise a flash in the pan? Can we retain some of those fans even though we lost?

We don't have much luxury to wait. Honestly the better we do now helps the next MW contract, but more importantly we need better support to make that jump to B12.

It helps if we keep winning, and hopefully we do that. Probably our most difficult for the rest of the regular season this week in Hawaii.

I doubt the SUDS game has the same attendance as the BSU game. SUDS fans hardly show up to their home games where as the BSU fans sold a lot of seats at Allegiant.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Maybe, we don't know that for sure. I'm sure they were hooked in with dreams of that number (12-15), but again from the beginning they were 'shooting for the fences", so I'm sure they were given a range and not promised that number.

It doesn't seem that they expected us or AFA to turn them down. So sure I am guessing they are annoyed, but I doubt they are livid

But bottom line, All MW teams are getting upgraded. More money than now, more money than a merger, and with the very well established precedent of exit fees getting negotiated down, they can pay off those fees over time themselves and still net more per year than they are now. But it sure sounded like they will be getting help for the exit fees, if not having them paid in full. Plus they don't have to go to Wyoming which is a travel nightmare, especially for basketball. Hawaii too. A better conference top to bottom. Not P4, but they have a step up on all other "G" conferences.

Are they pissed? Probably. But I doubt they are livid. They are upgrading whichever way you slice it.

The PAC 2 have the most to complain about, but it was their actions that started all of this. So what are you going to do? They made this bed.

If they go from 5 million to say 8 millon. Is it an upgrade? Sure. No doubt.

It's also nearly half of what they thought they could get and at best makes them the top G6 conference, which oddly enough the MWC was already considered arguably the best G6.

'The return to a POWER conference is out the window'

The biggest loser could end up being OSU/WSU who could end up making a 3rd of what their previous contract had been. Sure better something than nothing but it will be tighten the belts for them now.

Great for USU/CSU/SDSU etc. They get a raise.

You do not hire Octagon this late in the process if things are going well. And I'd be willing to bet there are some rumblings now about direction. The only schools with a vote until 2026 are OSU and WSU.
None of the new PAC schools have a 'P4' clause to get out for free.

How stupid would you feel as the SDSU AD if Big12 came knocking again. And here you are signed up with a 30 million dollar exit fee after already paying 11 million dollar one.

Would not be shocked if Octagon is telling them a lot of things they don't want to hear.

 

[LVRebel2000]

If they go from 5 million to say 8 millon. Is it an upgrade? Sure. No doubt.

It's also nearly half of what they thought they could get and at best makes them the top G6 conference, which oddly enough the MWC was already considered arguably the best G6.

'The return to a POWER conference is out the window'

The biggest loser could end up being OSU/WSU who could end up making a 3rd of what their previous contract had been. Sure better something than nothing but it will be tighten the belts for them now.

Great for USU/CSU/SDSU etc. They get a raise.

You do not hire Octagon this late in the process if things are going well. And I'd be willing to bet there are some rumblings now about direction. The only schools with a vote until 2026 are OSU and WSU.
None of the new PAC schools have a 'P4' clause to get out for free.

How stupid would you feel as the SDSU AD if Big12 came knocking again. And here you are signed up with a 30 million dollar exit fee after already paying 11 million dollar one.

Would not be shocked if Octagon is telling them a lot of things they don't want to hear.

Are you sure on the part about no P4 exit clause for free? I thought I saw on X where people were saying that the PAC schools ARE able to exit if invited to an autonomous 4 conference. Maybe the key part is "free exit" though. I'll have to check into that.

 

[dcut03]

If they go from 5 million to say 8 millon. Is it an upgrade? Sure. No doubt.

It's also nearly half of what they thought they could get and at best makes them the top G6 conference, which oddly enough the MWC was already considered arguably the best G6.

'The return to a POWER conference is out the window'

The biggest loser could end up being OSU/WSU who could end up making a 3rd of what their previous contract had been. Sure better something than nothing but it will be tighten the belts for them now.

Great for USU/CSU/SDSU etc. They get a raise.

You do not hire Octagon this late in the process if things are going well. And I'd be willing to bet there are some rumblings now about direction. The only schools with a vote until 2026 are OSU and WSU.
None of the new PAC schools have a 'P4' clause to get out for free.

How stupid would you feel as the SDSU AD if Big12 came knocking again. And here you are signed up with a 30 million dollar exit fee after already paying 11 million dollar one.

Would not be shocked if Octagon is telling them a lot of things they don't want to hear.

I truly don't think that they ever truly believed that they were going to get Power conference status. Even if they landed all of their top selections, it wasn't going to happen. Maybe an argument, but it wasn't going to happen.

They did what they should have done, try to sell that promise to anyone who would listen. Their name is still associated with a power conference, even though it is not. Like I said, they have a better brand, that is for sure. But I strongly doubted that they would have expected to be given AQ status.

They are somewhat out of good options, which is why they hired Octagon. Their internal team can't find a suitable 8th. Hiring outsied help will guide them in the best possible choice at this point.

I agree they are going to like what they hear, because their options are slim. They will likely have to go with a very underwhelming pick like NMSU or a PCS team with some upside like Sac State or Texas State. They are probably trying to decide if it is worth going with a team that offers zero media value now, that has a higher ceiling, or a team that has a bit more value now, but a lower ceiling.

Like I have said before, they could bite the bullet and circle back to UTSA. Again not making 9 million now, less of a travel issue. They just have to help pay up front. That would probably maximize their annual payouts. They could try to get Rice too, for the same reasons. Also when multiple teams leave, the exit fees tend to reduce. Texas and OU had a nearly 40% reduction as just 2 teams last season.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I truly don't think that they ever truly believed that they were going to get Power conference status. Even if they landed all of their top selections, it wasn't going to happen. Maybe an argument, but it wasn't going to happen.

They did what they should have done, try to sell that promise to anyone who would listen. Their name is still associated with a power conference, even though it is not. Like I said, they have a better brand, that is for sure. But I strongly doubted that they would have expected to be given AQ status.

They are somewhat out of good options, which is why they hired Octagon. Their internal team can't find a suitable 8th. Hiring outsied help will guide them in the best possible choice at this point.

I agree they are going to like what they hear, because their options are slim. They will likely have to go with a very underwhelming pick like NMSU or a PCS team with some upside like Sac State or Texas State. They are probably trying to decide if it is worth going with a team that offers zero media value now, that has a higher ceiling, or a team that has a bit more value now, but a lower ceiling.

Like I have said before, they could bite the bullet and circle back to UTSA. Again not making 9 million now, less of a travel issue. They just have to help pay up front. That would probably maximize their annual payouts. They could try to get Rice too, for the same reasons. Also when multiple teams leave, the exit fees tend to reduce. Texas and OU had a nearly 40% reduction as just 2 teams last season.

I don't think UTSA has the money. But possible.

Rice. Great school overall. Have money. But likely does nothing to enhance brand or revenue...

I don't think they circle back to MWC.

Honestly believe Gloria is in FAFO mode.

Will PAC ultimately be better conference..Yeah but it's like turning 16. Dad tells you if you get all As you get a car. He hints at passing down his beautiful 67 candy apple red mustang.

The big day arrives. He hands you a set of keys you go outside and it's a 1997 Corrola. You're happy to have a car but it sure as shit not what you thought you were getting.

The funniest thing would be if PAC deal gets them 7 million per year. Or about what Boise makes now on the sweetheart deal they got from MWC...

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Are you sure on the part about no P4 exit clause for free? I thought I saw on X where people were saying that the PAC schools ARE able to exit if invited to an autonomous 4 conference. Maybe the key part is "free exit" though. I'll have to check into that.

I believe OSU/WSU have that clause. I'm not so sure about the other 5. If I'm wrong on that I'll correct it for sure.

 

[dcut03]

I don't think UTSA has the money. But possible.

Rice. Great school overall. Have money. But likely does nothing to enhance brand or revenue...

I don't think they circle back to MWC.

Honestly believe Gloria is in FAFO mode.

Will PAC ultimately be better conference..Yeah but it's like turning 16. Dad tells you if you get all As you get a car. He hints at passing down his beautiful 67 candy apple red mustang.

The big day arrives. He hands you a set of keys you go outside and it's a 1997 Corrola. You're happy to have a car but it sure as shit not what you thought you were getting.

The funniest thing would be if PAC deal gets them 7 million per year. Or about what Boise makes now on the sweetheart deal they got from MWC...

Again they will need help, that is where the PAC will have to bite the bullet.

They may be waiting on this lawsuit to see if it has any traction. It is kinda funny because their decision is hinging on a lawsuit that they created, but that is holding them back from being a whole conference.

I think the UTSA and Rice combo could work for them because their negotiated buyouts will likely be lower. Again they are making less overall than the others. If they break down their buyout money over time where the PAC pays some and they pay some they could not lose any money with the move.

I think the MW are tough. They probably want UNLV, but I don't think UNLV should go at this point. Not without a free P5 pass. Not worth it, even if it is the safer option. I also don't know what the penalties with this morandum that everyone signed is, I am guessing it raised the price to leave. Not sure though.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

Again they will need help, that is where the PAC will have to bite the bullet.

They may be waiting on this lawsuit to see if it has any traction. It is kinda funny because their decision is hinging on a lawsuit that they created, but that is holding them back from being a whole conference.

I think the UTSA and Rice combo could work for them because their negotiated buyouts will likely be lower. Again they are making less overall than the others. If they break down their buyout money over time where the PAC pays some and they pay some they could not lose any money with the move.

I think the MW are tough. They probably want UNLV, but I don't think UNLV should go at this point. Not without a free P5 pass. Not worth it, even if it is the safer option. I also don't know what the penalties with this morandum that everyone signed is, I am guessing it raised the price to leave. Not sure though.

I agree. Why leave now. If the P4 comes calling it may be for BSU and UNLV or it could be BSU and WSU. Either way there will be openings in the PAC which will screw them up a lot more than us.

 

[dcut03]

I agree. Why leave now. If the P4 comes calling it may be for BSU and UNLV or it could be BSU and WSU. Either way there will be openings in the PAC which will screw them up a lot more than us.

If we keep our trajectory or even just maintain around the same success we have had the past 2 years. UNLV will look pretty attractive vs the PAC schools given our free pass. I know they have something similar, but I don't think it is a completely free pass. Not sure though.

 

[Rebel1986]

I doubt the SUDS game has the same attendance as the BSU game. SUDS fans hardly show up to their home games where as the BSU fans sold a lot of seats at Allegiant.

While it isn't like that CSU will lose to Wyoming, a CSU loss could go a long way towards a bigger crowd verse SDSU. Currently ticket sales are a lot better for the unr game than the game against SDSU. I hope that for the SDSU game they can sell enough tickets to open up some of the second level. I hope for 32-35K at the game.

The unr game will depend a lot on if UNLV wins all of their games, and if CSU loses to FSU the week before. If both of those things happen, and the very good possibility that UNLV is ranked again, then I could see the unr game crowd being 40K plus.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Again they will need help, that is where the PAC will have to bite the bullet.

They may be waiting on this lawsuit to see if it has any traction. It is kinda funny because their decision is hinging on a lawsuit that they created, but that is holding them back from being a whole conference.

I think the UTSA and Rice combo could work for them because their negotiated buyouts will likely be lower. Again they are making less overall than the others. If they break down their buyout money over time where the PAC pays some and they pay some they could not lose any money with the move.

I think the MW are tough. They probably want UNLV, but I don't think UNLV should go at this point. Not without a free P5 pass. Not worth it, even if it is the safer option. I also don't know what the penalties with this morandum that everyone signed is, I am guessing it raised the price to leave. Not sure though.

Lawsuit.

How I understand it is they are squabbling over 35 million vs 45 million. Gloria just waits it out. I do not believe the MWC needs that money or is counting on it to get anything done. (It would be foolishness to make deals with money not in hand).

Same goes for the PAC. They can't use money that is tied up in a lawsuit. (Again foolish if they need that money to lure schools).

AAC knows the PAC is head hunting now. Nothing is certain but I would have to imagine AAC commissioner is doing whatever he can to bolster his position now and hold onto Memphis and Tulane. His advantage he knows what PAC offered 1st time around and he knows or has an idea what his next contract is likely going to be.

PAC on the other hand until they get hard numbers has nothing to offer. If they knew 12-15 was possible or they had the money to pay exit fees they likely would have.

The PAC is also up against the clock. They have to have their 8th member by June or July of next season. If not, they don't have a conference. Everybody knows that. And that gives schools the ability to drive up the price.

PAC may still be in negotiations with St. Mary's but if you're St. Mary's are you joining for much less than Gonzaga got?

Does UTSA have a spare 5 or 10 million a year for exit fees? PAC was only offering 2.5 to Memphis to help them.

Rice could probably swing it.

At the end of the day the PAC will likely be a better conference top to bottom but won't be much closer to an AQ bid than any other G6 conference.

It's all speculation at this point. PAC may comeback with great offer and land the original 4 AAC schools and a monster media deal. And UNLV will be left with 10 million they'll need to spend very wisely to figure things out.

We'll see..

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Lawsuit.

How I understand it is they are squabbling over 35 million vs 45 million. Gloria just waits it out. I do not believe the MWC needs that money or is counting on it to get anything done. (It would be foolishness to make deals with money not in hand).

Same goes for the PAC. They can't use money that is tied up in a lawsuit. (Again foolish if they need that money to lure schools).

AAC knows the PAC is head hunting now. Nothing is certain but I would have to imagine AAC commissioner is doing whatever he can to bolster his position now and hold onto Memphis and Tulane. His advantage he knows what PAC offered 1st time around and he knows or has an idea what his next contract is likely going to be.

PAC on the other hand until they get hard numbers has nothing to offer. If they knew 12-15 was possible or they had the money to pay exit fees they likely would have.

The PAC is also up against the clock. They have to have their 8th member by June or July of next season. If not, they don't have a conference. Everybody knows that. And that gives schools the ability to drive up the price.

PAC may still be in negotiations with St. Mary's but if you're St. Mary's are you joining for much less than Gonzaga got?

Does UTSA have a spare 5 or 10 million a year for exit fees? PAC was only offering 2.5 to Memphis to help them.

Rice could probably swing it.

At the end of the day the PAC will likely be a better conference top to bottom but won't be much closer to an AQ bid than any other G6 conference.

It's all speculation at this point. PAC may comeback with great offer and land the original 4 AAC schools and a monster media deal. And UNLV will be left with 10 million they'll need to spend very wisely to figure things out.

We'll see..

Rice has horrible attendance I can’t imagine their TV ratings are any better.