Musical chairs has started again in college football
- Thread starter 220reb
- Start date
I doubt Texas ends up leaving. They have the same power over the Big 12 that BYU had over the MWC, plus a monstrous share of the revenue. They will absolutely not get that in the SEC.
If they do leave, I kind of think UNLV would be in the mix. You obviously don't just replace a Texas and OU. But nobody from other P5 will be leaving their conference to join B12. A few American schools are ahead of UNLV along with a few MWC. But UNLV ought to be in the mix. Depends on when it happens and where UNLV is in that time.
I'd assume without Texas blocking them, Houston would get first dibs. Probably SMU next.
If they do leave, I kind of think UNLV would be in the mix. You obviously don't just replace a Texas and OU. But nobody from other P5 will be leaving their conference to join B12. A few American schools are ahead of UNLV along with a few MWC. But UNLV ought to be in the mix. Depends on when it happens and where UNLV is in that time.
I'd assume without Texas blocking them, Houston would get first dibs. Probably SMU next.
if UT and OU leave for the SEC the Big12 Will lose 4 to the PAC leaving 4 Big12 schools, essentially putting an end to that conference. Those 4 remaining will probably join forces with some existing AAC schools, probably byu, and maybe a few other MWC schools like Boise and CSU. I think UNLV and the remaining MWC schools will then join forces with the other leftovers from the AAC.
According to this new ESPN link, TX and OU to the SEC discussion has been ongoing for 6 months, and could be a done deal in the next 2 weeks.
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...sooners-texas-longhorns-verge-making-sec-move
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...sooners-texas-longhorns-verge-making-sec-move
Effectively the Big12 (now only 8 teams with Oklahoma and Texas leaving) will turn into what the MWC was a decade ago! With Texas A&M (already gone), Nebraska (already gone), Oklahoma (leaving), and Texas (leaving), this leaves a skeleton of a conference that barely even has an overall winning record.
Based on what is left they may have a hard time surviving, and will need to bring at least 4 teams into the conference to get to 12 teams with the addition of 8 teams to reach 16 being the best option. I am not sure how this will shake out, but UNLV better pray they start winning immediately, or we could see what is left of the MWC and AAC being torn apart along with the Big12 to make one super conference leaving us in the dust.
Leaving
Oklahoma 56-10 last 5 years
Texas 37-25 last 5 years
Combined: 93-35 73% winning record
Still in Conference
Oklahoma State 43-20 last 5 years
Kansas 9-48 last 5 years
Kansas State 34-27 last 5 years
West Virginia 36-24 last 5 years
Baylor 28-33 last 5 years
Texas Tech 24-35 last 5 years
TCU 35-27 last 5 years
Iowa State 35-28 last 5 years
Combined: 244-242 50% winning record
Based on what is left they may have a hard time surviving, and will need to bring at least 4 teams into the conference to get to 12 teams with the addition of 8 teams to reach 16 being the best option. I am not sure how this will shake out, but UNLV better pray they start winning immediately, or we could see what is left of the MWC and AAC being torn apart along with the Big12 to make one super conference leaving us in the dust.
Leaving
Oklahoma 56-10 last 5 years
Texas 37-25 last 5 years
Combined: 93-35 73% winning record
Still in Conference
Oklahoma State 43-20 last 5 years
Kansas 9-48 last 5 years
Kansas State 34-27 last 5 years
West Virginia 36-24 last 5 years
Baylor 28-33 last 5 years
Texas Tech 24-35 last 5 years
TCU 35-27 last 5 years
Iowa State 35-28 last 5 years
Combined: 244-242 50% winning record
Beyond stupid. Does anyone really think they would take a bunch of small market programs like wyoming, smu, air force, etc.? Air force routinely gets waxed by navy and army! Rice hasn't had a winning record in 7 years, had a couple of thousand more people attend games in 2019 and would be far behind UNLV based on tickets sales in 20-21. SMU has had a decent record, but also only averages about 23K attendance per game. Wyoming has zero market potential and usually has almost the entire state at their games with an average attendance of 23K. Louisiana Tech has a decent record but only averaged a few hundred more people per game than UNLV. Tulsa average a thousand less than UNLV prior to the recent attendance boost with UNLV moving into the new stadium.
The truth of the matter is while UNLV has a lousy record, they have far more potential in their new stadium, and will average between 5-10K more in attendance this next season than the teams listed above who all were in the low 20s. As a side note, UNLV average about 3K more fans per game in 2019 than unr and will likely average 10k-15K more this next season than unr.
The truth of the matter is while UNLV has a lousy record, they have far more potential in their new stadium, and will average between 5-10K more in attendance this next season than the teams listed above who all were in the low 20s. As a side note, UNLV average about 3K more fans per game in 2019 than unr and will likely average 10k-15K more this next season than unr.
Last edited:
If all the P5 go to 16 the would mean 11 teams added. I don’t think we’re anywhere near that group of 11.
I think we stack up ok vs those schools from a facilities standpoint. We have a good foundation to work with. If we can become competitive in our conference then anything is possible. Big 12 or bust.
That gets them back to 12. Is that enough? Do they try and go 16?
Agree with the possibility of those four.
Memphis?
A lot will also do with how many people buy tickets. Based on what I can see now it looks like most of the lower section is sold out for all of the games and both the lower and middle for Iowa State, figuring that is around 40K seats, that would put UNLV near the front in regards to tickets sold. If people show up this next season, and they win games, I could easily see UNLV becoming the best pick out west for expansion. Boise, Fresno, and SDSU are all right around 30K in attendance for 2019 while UNLV was at 20K. The big difference is UNLV has much better facilities, is a more desirable location, and has a much bigger upside. UNLV will most likely be over 30K average this next season, now they need to find a way to win games.
I figured Texas and Oklahoma would eventually leave the Big12 but I was hoping they would wait until closer to the end of their TV deal in 2025 and UNLV would have a chance to show some promise. This is a bad time to have a terrible football program. It will be interesting to see what the "little 8" leftover teams from Big12 decide to do with expansion. Do they go east with AAC teams or west with BYU/MWC teams?
I just hope the PAC doesn't rush to expand right now. We need them to stay at 12 teams for the time being and keep spots 13/14/15/16 open for when UNLV is ready.
I just hope the PAC doesn't rush to expand right now. We need them to stay at 12 teams for the time being and keep spots 13/14/15/16 open for when UNLV is ready.
Here's what the Iowa State AD said a couple years ago about what the Big 12 would be without Texas and OU.
“The Big 12 exists because we have Texas and Oklahoma in the room,” Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard said in an interview with a Des Moines radio station this week. “If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we’re the Mountain West Conference, and we’re getting $3 million (in annual TV revenue, a drastic decrease). We’ve got two star players, whether people want to like that or not: Texas and Oklahoma.”
Well the current Big 12 has 10 members. While the big 10 has 14, yay logic!
This is why they were looking to add maybe a couple of team a few years back, but ultimately decided against it. I'm guessing that they would have to take a pay cut with the new members by splitting the pot 2 more ways.
They may want to go to 12 without their big 2, probably the best markets possible.
But I also see the conference disbanding.
If Texas and OU leave they would be down to 8 correct?
Kan, KState, Baylor, TTech, OkState, TCU, WVU, Iowa State..
You right.
I read "back to 12", and was thinking "Hey, they are only at 10".
I can't math on a Saturday.
Saying that confernce will be the MW without OU and UT is a bit of a stretch, but it would make them the AAC maybe.
Still a very good basketball conference. Though I can see other conferences picking off the scraps over them trying to stay a thing, but I could be wrong there.
If they try to rebuild UNLV has a shot. If they don't the leftovers may be able to create a new conference that will be appetizing for UNLV to look at. Or maybe the MW tries to expand which could help our bottom line.
The Big12 will survive in some form. Too much money available for that conference to dissolve. Even if they lose a few more teams to the P4 (highly unlikely) they could still grab any G5 team they want. They have 4 years of big TV money. Great bowl contracts including the Sugar Bowl that pays them 17 million a year. They have a ton of NCAA basketball money coming. Plus Texas, Oklahoma, and anyone else leaving is each going to have to write a $75+ million dollar check to leave. The big 12 won’t be a power conference anymore but nobody is leaving all that money on the table to start a new conference or to join the AAC or MWC.
Nobody wants to play us?
Do you believe we would have been able to set up home and home games with Arizona State, California, Iowa State, BYU and UCLA in the old stadium? With very rare exceptions, and games verse Wisconsin, UNLV only had a hand full of games against major programs over the last 3 decades at home. UNLV has been able to recruit at a level over the last two seasons that puts them up at the top of the MWC, UNLV has by far the best facilities in the MWC, UNLV will most likely be either the top or near the top team in attendance this next season (UNLV averaged just under 20K per game in 2019 and had increased season ticket sales by 3-5K when everything shut down and have done even better so far this season), which should make it easy to win with even an average level of coaching against programs that mostly recruit 2* and very low 3* players.
Granted UNLV better start winning immediately or consider getting rid of the athletic department, but if they can win, it will have immediate dividends.
Last edited:
Yeah agreed on that conference not being that bad.
K State bounces in and out of top 25.
Iowa State same thing recently.
Ok State. Top 25ish.
Baylor after getting in trouble has bounced back.
Texas Tech has been in the top 25 in the last 5 years I believe.
The only real boat anchor in football is Kansas.
Basketball it's a solid conference.
I guess the best way to compare would be put the MWC best teams over the last 5 years Boise State and SDSU into that conference and ask yourself honestly how you think they would do..
Both likely lose 2 games against that schedule.
There is a chance. Not sure how much of UT's and OU's inclusion in the coference dictates that contract. Considering that they have a higher piece of the pie than the other members with their TV contract, I wouldn't be surprised if the contract get nullified if they were to exit. Same with the bowl games.
Getting 150 mill is a legit point. That would definitely help. I didn't know that was a part of the deal.
I can see them try to scoop up University of Houston. They almost did previously. Maybe Cincy, maybe BYU.
I would love for UNLV to be in that picture, selfishly since I live in Texas. I know there have been talks and have been in the mix, but were never a legit candidate.
But that was before the stadium and the practice facility, sure we had the plans but, they weren't completed. Also the academic side of UNLV has improved since then. Also with the success of the Knights and the Raiders it legitimizinf Vegas as a big boy market. Now the counter argument to that is that UNLV may have the smallest piece of said market than it has had in the past. But the potential is there. Rutgers didn't get a p5 invite because they had a big piece of the Ny/NJ market.
If the Big 12 survives UNLV could be added. They have never been a better P5 candidate despite poor performance with the 2 big frachises. If the Big 12 gets disbanded and eaten up by the other p5 conferences, UNLV will not be added to p5. The remaining Big 12 schools are much more attractive.
I’m sure the Big 12 has called but I can’t imagine the PAC12 would be interested in that 20 team mess. That would cement the PAC in as the bottom of the power conferences forever. I bet the California schools bolt to the Big Ten as soon as they see that next TV contact. I imagine seeing Vandy and Northwestern making $30+million more a year than the PAC schools won’t sit well with USC. That’s why Texas and Oklahoma are leaving. They already tried to talk to the networks about extending the TV deal and they know they can’t carry 8 schools of minimal value anymore. All the Big12 schools worth their weight have been picked off now (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Colorado). Taking the 8 bottom teams won’t help the PAC.
The big 12 won't survive imo. If they do they won't be P5 status. I don't think UNLV is in a very good position unfortunately. Our best chance to play with the big boys would be to go to the pac-12 but now the pac-12 has the option of the Big 12 leftovers like tcu, Oklahoma state, Texas tech.
All the “little 8” teams from the Big12 have their warts but they’re still a good group of schools. I think they’ll become the new tweener conference like the old Big East was. Definitely below the P4 but still a clear step above the MWC and AAC. I would love to see UNLV in a depleted Big12 but I don’t think we’re on anybody’s radar at the moment. Athletically we offer next to nothing right now and all these conferences are trying to position themselves for the most money possible today. UNLV the university has made great strides in the last 10 years but the athletic department hasn’t shown much. The TKM and DRF coaching hires have not put us in a good spot. We need a few more years to show our football/basketball would be good adds and also prove that we have a legit fan base that will put 40k in the stands. The last thing the Big12 wants is another Kansas KU type football program.
Market size is pretty much the only thing making us viable.
PAC 12 uses the stadium the State is paying for, they invite unlv to the conference. It’s that simple
Do they 'need' UNLV to use it though? I'm not sure inviting UNLV to the PAC-12 would be necessary for them to host a Conference title game.
since the stadium is officially owned by the state it would be wise for this issue to be looked into. The state of Nevada is not necessarily loyal to unlv without unr somehow is also involved so that’s that.
