It's Time: Season Predictions

[RebelBuzz]

There may have been a thread about this earlier, but oh well. There's nothing else going on around here until the SUU game. What are your predictions?

vs. SUU: WIN (1-0)
vs. Arkansas State: WIN (2-0)
@ Northwestern: LOSS (2-1)
BYE
@ Wyoming: WIN (3-1)
vs. Boise State: LOSS (3-2)
@ Vanderbilt: WIN (4-2)
@ Fresno State (Fri.): LOSS (4-3)
vs. San Diego State: LOSS (4-4)
@ Colorado State: LOSS (4-5)
BYE
vs. Hawaii:WIN (5-5)
vs. San Jose State: WIN (6-5)
@ Reno: WIN (7-5) (I will never predict a loss against Reno)

UNLV under Tony Sanchez has always had a notable upset road win against a bowl team or better: @Reno, @Hawaii, @Fresno State (10-4), and @ SDSU. I think this year that surprise road win comes from the non-conference schedule against Vanderbilt.

I think the CSU game is one where we'll get our hopes up, hoping to bounce back from losses against Boise and SDSU, but the Rebs will fall flat and lose 3 in a row.

It's been said before, but this really shapes up as a tough schedule. From Northwestern through Colorado State (7 games), there are no games where it is super easy to pencil in a win. Wyoming and CSU aren't world-beaters, but they are conference road games. The only home games, where you would hope to get some momentum back, are against Boise and San Diego. I've got us going 2-5 down that stretch. While that's nothing great it might be good enough to get us to that magic number for bowl eligibility. Anything less than getting 2 wins out of those 7 games and we are almost certainly on the outside looking in come bowl season.

 

[j. spilotro]

vs. SUU: WIN (1-0)
vs. Arkansas State: WIN (2-0)
@ Northwestern: LOSS (2-1)
BYE
@ Wyoming: WIN (3-1)
vs. Boise State: LOSS (3-2)
@ Vanderbilt: LOSS (3-3)
@ Fresno State (Fri.): LOSS (3-4)
vs. San Diego State: WIN (4-4)
@ Colorado State: LOSS (4-5)
BYE
vs. Hawaii:WIN (5-5)
vs. San Jose State: WIN (6-5)
@ Reno: WIN (7-5)

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

So many games on this schedule that could go either way.

Call it fence sitting but I could see both these scenarios playing out.

WE'RE GOING BOWLING EDITION

SUU- W (1-0)
ARK State- W (2-0)
Northwestern- L (2-1)
Wyoming- W (3-1)
Boise- L (3-2) Close game though
Vandy -L (3-3)
Fresno- L (3-4)
SDSU- W (4-4)
CSU- L (4-5)
UH- W (5-5)
SJSU- W (6-5)
Reno- W (7-5)

THE LET THE SEARCH BEGIN EDITION
SUU W 1-0
Ark S L 1-1
Northwestern L 1-2
Wyoming W 2-2
Boise L 2-3
Vandy L 2-4 (rumblings start)
Fresno L 2-5
SDSU W 3-5 (We still have a chance!)
CSU L 3-6 (Not so much anymore)
UH W 4-6 ( We're back in it!)
SJSU W 5-6 (Just got to beat Reno!)
Reno L (Whelp)..

 

[reagan21]

THE LET THE SEARCH BEGIN EDITION
SUU W 1-0
Ark S L 1-1
Northwestern L 1-2
Wyoming W 2-2
Boise L 2-3
Vandy L 2-4 (rumblings start)
Fresno L 2-5
SDSU W 3-5 (We still have a chance!)
CSU L 3-6 (Not so much anymore)
UH W 4-6 ( We're back in it!)
SJSU W 5-6 (Just got to beat Reno!)
Reno L (Whelp)..

Hilarious because that is what I think will happen.

 

[j. spilotro]

Hilarious because that is what I think will happen.

I want to see Tyleek in some open space a few times a game. Please find him Armani.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Hilarious because that is what I think will happen.

Yeah, I hate to feel that way but Coach Sanchez' record in 'big' games is pretty bad.

He has the two wins over Reno which are great.

But every year, when there has been a chance to salvage a season, or get back into bowl contention the Rebs have laid an egg.

UNM and San Jose State last year. Win those or even one of them and they were realistically back in the mix.

The year before vs AF. Avoid a 2nd half collapse you go bowling.

Maybe with the added depth things will be different.

I'm hopeful.

 

[rebneck]

I want to see Tyleek in some open space a few times a game. Please find him Armani.

Tyleek will see plenty of open space. Unfortunately, he'll mostly be out there watching Armani run the ball to the other side of the field.

 

[rebelwithacause]

I like Tony, I really hope he pulls it off this year and takes us bowling. I predict we go 7-5 and Tony gets a contract extension. If however we go 5-7, I'm not so sure we should make a change just for the sake of changing. I wouldn't want Tony to get fired unless we have a clearly better option for a head coach. The only scenario I would welcome a new head coach is if he is popular name who can bring in the big time recruits. If we are able to get someone like Jon Robinson again, than I would be all for it.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I like Tony, I really hope he pulls it off this year and takes us bowling. I predict we go 7-5 and Tony gets a contract extension. If however we go 5-7, I'm not so sure we should make a change just for the sake of changing. I wouldn't want Tony to get fired unless we have a clearly better option for a head coach. The only scenario I would welcome a new head coach is if he is popular name who can bring in the big time recruits. If we are able to get someone like Jon Robinson again, than I would be all for it.

If he goes 5-7 I simply don't think you can retain him.

Outside of the new stadium next year there will be zero momentum or excitement heading into the season.

Operation costs are going up.

You need people in seats to offset the costs.

Season ticket sales have spiked a bit but I don't think enough to cover everything.

Even at a school like UNLV with little history or tradition of winning there has to be some type of standard.

5 losing seasons probably wouldn't be good enough anywhere else and it shouldn't be good enough here in my opinion.

You bring up a good point about having a better option.

Hindsight being 20/20

Sanford seemed like a very good hire.

Hauck seemed like a good hire on paper.

Sanchez and the promise of the $$$ attached seemed risky but necessary. UNLV needed that money.

If Sanchez fails to reach a bowl I'm not sure where UNLV could look.

An up and coming assistant might be the right hire but would it put butts in seats? I don't know.

It will take somebody with serious name value to get people out to games..

The ideal scenario is Sanchez and the Rebs killing it this year and making/winning a bowl.

UNLV could retain him at a pretty reasonable contract.

But if its 5-7 I think you have to move on.

At some point 'next year' has to be this year.

 

[TomKingsley]

8-4

 

[BleedRebelRed90]

When the first season odds came out in June I plugged the point spreads into my spreadsheet to convert to % chance of winning and it looked like:

99.0% UNLV -26 vs S Utah
42.6% Ark St -3 @ UNLV
2.7% UNLV +19 @ Northwestern
36.9% UNLV +4.5 @ Wyo
16.5% Boise -13.5 @ UNLV
12.6% UNLV +15 @ Vandy
18.4% UNLV +12 @ Fresno
33.6% SDSU -6 @ UNLV
50.0% UNLV PK @ CSU
45.8% Hawaii -2.5 @ UNLV
73.0% SJ St +7.5 @ UNLV
29.7% UNLV +7 @ UNR

Like @RebelBuzz I will never predict a loss to Reno, so I say 6 wins and those wins will be:

SUU
Arkansas St
Wyoming
CSU
SJSU
UNR

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

When the first season odds came out in June I plugged the point spreads into my spreadsheet to convert to % chance of winning and it looked like:

99.0% UNLV -26 vs S Utah
42.6% Ark St -3 @ UNLV
2.7% UNLV +19 @ Northwestern
36.9% UNLV +4.5 @ Wyo
16.5% Boise -13.5 @ UNLV
12.6% UNLV +15 @ Vandy
18.4% UNLV +12 @ Fresno
33.6% SDSU -6 @ UNLV
50.0% UNLV PK @ CSU
45.8% Hawaii -2.5 @ UNLV
73.0% SJ St +7.5 @ UNLV
29.7% UNLV +7 @ UNR

Like @RebelBuzz I will never predict a loss to Reno, so I say 6 wins and those wins will be:

SUU
Arkansas St
Wyoming
CSU
SJSU
UNR

The three games that scare me are..

Ark State: I think they have been bowling 5 or 6 straight years and avg around 8 wins. They lose a number of guys off last years squad, notably a 3-4 year starter at QB. But they have built that program up to the point they seem to reload.

Wyoming: Has always been a tough place for the Rebs to win. Another team that lost some good players, but they've won 8,8 and 6 games the last three years. Good thing its early in the year before the weather gets bad. Depending on how the Ark State game goes this could be an early 'must win' game.

CSU: They have some issues. Bobo is definitely on the hot seat. But like Wyoming this is always a tough place to play for the Rebs. Weather could be sketchy that time of year. Of the three it seems like the most 'winnable'. I think the Rebs are probably the more talented squad, but it being on the road makes it a toss up..

I also hate the idea of needing the Reno game to get to bowl eligibility.

 

[WarthogRebel]

We'll most likely know after 4 games. If we aren't 3-1 we will not be bowling.
Go 3-1 and beat CSU we have a decent chance to catch enough for post season.

 

[1Tripoda]

This might be the year we beat Boise

 

[dcut03]

Gun to my head this is what I feel will happen realistically

vs. SUU: WIN (1-0)
vs. Arkansas State: WIN (2-0)
@ Northwestern: LOSS (2-1)
BYE
@ Wyoming: LOSS (2-2)
vs. Boise State: LOSS (2-3)
@ Vanderbilt: LOSS (2-4)
@ Fresno State (Fri.): LOSS (2-5)
vs. San Diego State: LOSS (2-6)
@ Colorado State: WIN (3-6)
BYE
vs. Hawaii:WIN (4-6)
vs. San Jose State: WIN (5-6)
@ Reno: LOSS (5-7)... And all hell breaks loose, but at least an exciting ride at the end


But... win that Reno game, and it just might be enough to get people a little excited.

 

[bcvegaspt]

3 games on facebook so the fans will have to watch from the comfort of their computer for 3.5 hours. (These are three games I'm not efforting, obviously. Make it easier for me and I'll devote the time).

This doesn't help to enlarge the fanbase. If you want to watch the game at a sports bar, say, you better hope they have a facebook link to their tv. (Not everyone wants to go to BAR)

 

[j. spilotro]

3 games on facebook so the fans will have to watch from the comfort of their computer for 3.5 hours. (These are three games I'm not efforting, obviously. Make it easier for me and I'll devote the time).

This doesn't help to enlarge the fanbase. If you want to watch the game at a sports bar, say, you better hope they have a facebook link to their tv. (Not everyone wants to go to BAR)

I’ll do it. But it’s more difficult and cheesy and far, far, far less comfortable.

If UNLV were smart, they’d partner up with some places and have the stream handled ... to the point where the viewer really doesn’t notice it’s not on “real” TV. Work it out with some corporate sponsor, have it played in their bar, a casino banquet room, something, anything. Saying it’s on FaceBook Live isn’t going to excite anybody. If anything, it’s a very harsh reminder with where we are at as a program.

 

[lvrebalum2012]

3 games on facebook so the fans will have to watch from the comfort of their computer for 3.5 hours. (These are three games I'm not efforting, obviously. Make it easier for me and I'll devote the time).

This doesn't help to enlarge the fanbase. If you want to watch the game at a sports bar, say, you better hope they have a facebook link to their tv. (Not everyone wants to go to BAR)

Understood your concern for fans outside of Vegas.

But for fans in Vegas, an easy way to avoid having to watch the games on the internet is to just go in person, since they are home games.

 

[LasVegasReb]

3 games on facebook so the fans will have to watch from the comfort of their computer for 3.5 hours. (These are three games I'm not efforting, obviously. Make it easier for me and I'll devote the time).

This doesn't help to enlarge the fanbase. If you want to watch the game at a sports bar, say, you better hope they have a facebook link to their tv. (Not everyone wants to go to BAR)

Facebook Live can be watched on your TV with Apple TV, Chromecast or Samsung TV’s. I did so last season and it’s was fine.


There are two ways you can watch Facebook videos on a TV:


Stream Facebook videos to a TV

1. Make sure your TV is connected to a streaming device (example: Apple TV, Chromecast or Samsung TV) and is on the same Wi-Fi network as your mobile device or computer.
2. Open the Facebook app on your mobile device or computer and find the video you'd like to stream.
3. Tap the video to expand it to full screen mode.
4. Tap
   
   in the top right of the video.
5. Select the TV where you'd like the video to play.

Download the Facebook Watch TV App

1. Go to the app store for your television platform (see our list of supported TVs and devices) and download the Facebook Watch TV app.
2. Open the Watch app on your TV, then click Continue with Facebook.
   
   
3. You'll see a screen with a code:
   
   
4. To confirm the code that appears on your TV, open the Facebook app on a mobile device, then tap the notification at the top and tap Confirm. Or, you can go to facebook.com/device on a computer or phone, then enter the code manually and click or tap Continue.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Understood your concern for fans outside of Vegas.

But for fans in Vegas, an easy way to avoid having to watch the games on the internet is to just go in person, since they are home games.

ARE YOU NUTS!

The stadium is like a 20 maybe even 25 minute drive from my home!

Thanks, but no way I'm making that trek in my air conditioned car..

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Gun to my head this is what I feel will happen realistically

vs. SUU: WIN (1-0)
vs. Arkansas State: WIN (2-0)
@ Northwestern: LOSS (2-1)
BYE
@ Wyoming: LOSS (2-2)
vs. Boise State: LOSS (2-3)
@ Vanderbilt: LOSS (2-4)
@ Fresno State (Fri.): LOSS (2-5)
vs. San Diego State: LOSS (2-6)
@ Colorado State: WIN (3-6)
BYE
vs. Hawaii:WIN (4-6)
vs. San Jose State: WIN (5-6)
@ Reno: LOSS (5-7)... And all hell breaks loose, but at least an exciting ride at the end


But... win that Reno game, and it just might be enough to get people a little excited.

If it plays out the way you describe, I'm not so sure he survives a 6 game losing streak.

 

[rebneck]

This season could really go in any direction. I happen to be an optimistic person, generally, so I'm going with karma working for us a little more because it's been the other way for so long. That and more quality recruits maturing in the program. Hard to know what to expect from Justice as OC.

W-UNLV -26 vs S Utah
W-Ark St -3 @ UNLV
L-UNLV +19 @ Northwestern
W-UNLV +4.5 @ Wyo
L-Boise -13.5 @ UNLV
L-UNLV +15 @ Vandy
L-UNLV +12 @ Fresno
W-SDSU -6 @ UNLV
W-UNLV PK @ CSU
W-Hawaii -2.5 @ UNLV
W-SJ St +7.5 @ UNLV
W-UNLV +7 @ UNR

8-4 seems ridiculously optimistic. I tried to make that last game a loss, but the nausea wouldn't go away until I changed it to a W.

Come to think of it, karma may not swing our way until we're in the new stadium and no longer playing on an ancient mob burial ground.

 

[dcut03]

If it plays out the way you describe, I'm not so sure he survives a 6 game losing streak.

You may be right.

It's hard for me to predict a win in that 6 game stretch. Hell, Ark State is no gimmie.

Wyoming is a very difficult place to play and are typically very solid.
Vandy was a SEC bowl team. NW will be ranked on the road.
SDSU is the easiest win to pick, but I'm not riding too much on our success from last season. It didn't feel so much that we dominated them, just that they sort of stunk it up. Typically they are much better, and I expect them to be solid again this season.

 

[rebelwithacause]

This season could really go in any direction. I happen to be an optimistic person, generally, so I'm going with karma working for us a little more because it's been the other way for so long. That and more quality recruits maturing in the program. Hard to know what to expect from Justice as OC.

W-UNLV -26 vs S Utah
W-Ark St -3 @ UNLV
L-UNLV +19 @ Northwestern
W-UNLV +4.5 @ Wyo
L-Boise -13.5 @ UNLV
L-UNLV +15 @ Vandy
L-UNLV +12 @ Fresno
W-SDSU -6 @ UNLV
W-UNLV PK @ CSU
W-Hawaii -2.5 @ UNLV
W-SJ St +7.5 @ UNLV
W-UNLV +7 @ UNR

8-4 seems ridiculously optimistic. I tried to make that last game a loss, but the nausea wouldn't go away until I changed it to a W.

Come to think of it, karma may not swing our way until we're in the new stadium and no longer playing on an ancient mob burial ground.

I feel the same way....NOw I know it's probably just my optimistic outlook that has me envisioning a successful season also, except my vision has us upsetting someone big like Northwestern, Boise St, or Fresno. ... If we are going to be good, we are going to be good. 9-3 would be so much fun.

 

[bcvegaspt]

Thanks for setting me straight! I’ve been going on and off for the last 40 or so years, 39
of which we’ve sucked really bad.

This year I should continue to go, in 110 degrees or in 40 degrees, or else I’m not a loyal fan. I’m not playing the martyr role, I’m just laughing that this year I want to make it easier on myself by watching it on a real tv station.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Thanks for setting me straight! I’ve been going on and off for the last 40 or so years, 39
of which we’ve sucked really bad.

This year I should continue to go, in 110 degrees or in 40 degrees, or else I’m not a loyal fan. I’m not playing the martyr role, I’m just laughing that this year I want to make it easier on myself by watching it on a real tv station.

Are we talking farenheit or celcius?

 

[RebelScrub]

Who is dressing up like they lived in the 70’s?

 

[bcvegaspt]

Are we talking farenheit or celcius?

I was just in 8-17 degrees C as their “summer weather” for two weeks. Maybe this 110 is causing my recent attitude.

 

[Mojo702]

I think we could go anywhere from 3-9 to 8-4.

For me it's less about Justice and more about Armani & the Defense. Armani just being able to complete 50% of his passes keeping the opponents honest and getting our D to stop giving up 2 big plays a game and/or falling apart in the 4th quarter. This team since CTS can play a solid 3 quarters then absolutely take the biggest dump in the fourth. If both the defense & Armani can just be league average we'll be fine and go bowling.

 

[Couev]

I'm hoping for 6-6, but looking at the schedule 5-7 seems the most likely of outcomes, and 4-8 again isn't out of the real of possibilities.

Here are my season questions:

* Will you still be able to run the ball as effectively without the homerun threat of Lexington, and how will the backfield depth that's pretty young play?

* Will you finally be able to generate a pass rush from your DL? How will you improve the pass rush when we averaged an anemic 1.6 sacks per game and we lost more than 50% of those to graduation?

* Can Armani
A). Be more accurate with his throws and faster with his reads?
B) Stay healthy?

* Can we improve the production of our passing game? Having 35 receptions and 440 yards be your top receiver numbers in a 12 game season is tough, especially when opponents are average more than 100 yards a game more passing a game

* Can the defense improve in the Red Zone?

* How will Gutierrez handle full time kicking duties?

* Will we find any kind of decent return game on special teams? PR especially was anemic.

* Will the offense under Justice be more aggressive than under Cotton?

 

[WarthogRebel]

Who is dressing up like they lived in the 70’s?

I always dress like it's the 70's.

 

[rebelzzz]

I hope we get bowl eligible but i see wins against SUU, Arkansas St, and SJST, might sneek in a fourth somewhere

 

[rorebel24]

4 wins bring in Mora.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

4 wins bring in Mora.

I could be wrong but I don't think Mora will happen now.

And I'm not so sure he would be a great fit anyway.

 

[bcvegaspt]

I could be wrong but I don't think Mora will happen now.

And I'm not so sure he would be a great fit anyway.

Urban isn’t currently employed at any university.

Yes, I went there!

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Urban isn’t currently employed at any university.

Yes, I went there!

More likely Hauck 2.0....

 

[Pistol Pete 1]

Rebels are gonna shock the world and go 13-0.

 

[MonsterJam]

Rebels are gonna shock the world and go 13-0.

This is not impossible. Its unlikely, highly unlikely even, but not impossible.

 

[rebneck]

More likely Hauck 2.0....

Not even jokingly!

My preference is for a winning season that starts a trend with unlvfb, and that CTS is retained and the staff upgraded. What I like about Tony is his willingness to roll up his sleeves, work, and build. Hauck wasn't a builder. His first go 'round at UM he basically maintained what Joe Glenn and others had built. His shortcomings were uncovered here. Same with Sanford. As much as he protested, he stood on the shoulders of Urban at Utah. I think it goes to show that, perhaps, there weren't deep enough dives made into these guys backgrounds by those hiring/investigating/evaluating them. Give me a guy who doesn't have questions about being able to stand on his own.

 

[j. spilotro]

Not even jokingly!

My preference is for a winning season that starts a trend with unlvfb, and that CTS is retained and the staff upgraded. What I like about Tony is his willingness to roll up his sleeves, work, and build. Hauck wasn't a builder. His first go 'round at UM he basically maintained what Joe Glenn and others had built. His shortcomings were uncovered here. Same with Sanford. As much as he protested, he stood on the shoulders of Urban at Utah. I think it goes to show that, perhaps, there weren't deep enough dives made into these guys backgrounds by those hiring/investigating/evaluating them. Give me a guy who doesn't have questions about being able to stand on his own.

Agreed with that but there were also money limitations and a lack of importance limitation. FB has always been back burner. So there is a cultural element there...