First, I think it is unlikely to get an at-large but if we win three maybe. Here are some key games to watch and who to root for/against this weekend.
ACC:
UVA vs GT - root for GT, UVA currently last by Lunardi, 10 seed by Palm
Pitt vs NCST - root for NCST, both are out but Pitt is closer to the field than NCST
Wake vs Clemson - root for Clemson, a loss pretty much eliminates Wake from discussion.
Big 12:
Oklahoma vs Texas - root for Texas, OU is a 8/9/10 seed so a loss here and a loss early in the tournament could push them out. Texas is slightly ahead of OU seed wise but has much better NET numbers.
KSU vs ISU - root for ISU, KSU is out but a win at home against ISU and a deep run could push them in.
Big East:
Villanova vs Creighton - root for Creighton, boost our numbers and Villanova is right in the bubble.
Seton Hall vs DePaul - root for DePaul, Seton Hall helped itself with a win against Villanova last time out. This won’t help them much but a loss is devastating, currently lunardi has last four byes and palm has in play-in.
Providence vs UCONN - root for UCONN, Providence is a different case, some mock brackets have them in, Palm doesn’t even have them as a bubble team. Loss isn’t bad here but a win would be painful to all other bubble teams.
St Johns vs Georgetown - root for Georgetown. St. John’s has won four straight after Pitino’s outburst and is squarely on the bubble.
Big Ten:
Michigan State maybe but there NET is so high not sure even a loss to Indiana and a loss first round would keep them out.
Northwestern vs Minn - root for Minn, Northwestern is in at 8/9 see right now but has a small chance to play itself out.
Nebraska vs Mich. -root for Mich, pretty much same boat as NW, in but could play itself out.
Iowa vs Ill - root for Ill, Iowa on the bubble and needs to not play itself in.
PAC-12:
Colorado vs OSU - root for OSU, road loss to OSU would hurt CU’s chances and push them off the bubble.
Utah vs Oregon - root for Oregon, Oregon is farther from the field then Utah and probably will not be able to play it’s way in.
SEC:
Miss St. vs S.Car - root for S.Car, while this loss will not kill their chances a win probably makes them a lock.
Tex A&M vs Miss - root for Miss, I am not sure why A&M is not in over MSU as of now and even some mock brackets don’t even show them just out. They have a head to head if MSU, more quad 1 wins and less bad losses. I don’t think Miss can play it’s way in.
American:
USF vs Tulsa - USF is UNLV without the quad 1 wins, but a conference title. A loss would be nice.
FAU vs Memphis - root for Memphis, currently projected as a 8/9 seed but there NET wins/losses are comparable to UNLV but they have a high NET. I think they are in due to last year but I think they could drop with two losses. Memphis cloud play it’s way in, but would rather see FAU lose this game.
Ivy:
Princeton vs Penn - I don’t think Princeton gets an at large with no games against quad 1 teams and a 3-3 record against quad 2 but a loss would still be helpful.
Conference Tournaments:
Lose/Early or Win Teams:
James Madison (Sun Belt)
McNeese St (Southland)
Indiana St (MVC)
ACC:
UVA vs GT - root for GT, UVA currently last by Lunardi, 10 seed by Palm
Pitt vs NCST - root for NCST, both are out but Pitt is closer to the field than NCST
Wake vs Clemson - root for Clemson, a loss pretty much eliminates Wake from discussion.
Big 12:
Oklahoma vs Texas - root for Texas, OU is a 8/9/10 seed so a loss here and a loss early in the tournament could push them out. Texas is slightly ahead of OU seed wise but has much better NET numbers.
KSU vs ISU - root for ISU, KSU is out but a win at home against ISU and a deep run could push them in.
Big East:
Villanova vs Creighton - root for Creighton, boost our numbers and Villanova is right in the bubble.
Seton Hall vs DePaul - root for DePaul, Seton Hall helped itself with a win against Villanova last time out. This won’t help them much but a loss is devastating, currently lunardi has last four byes and palm has in play-in.
Providence vs UCONN - root for UCONN, Providence is a different case, some mock brackets have them in, Palm doesn’t even have them as a bubble team. Loss isn’t bad here but a win would be painful to all other bubble teams.
St Johns vs Georgetown - root for Georgetown. St. John’s has won four straight after Pitino’s outburst and is squarely on the bubble.
Big Ten:
Michigan State maybe but there NET is so high not sure even a loss to Indiana and a loss first round would keep them out.
Northwestern vs Minn - root for Minn, Northwestern is in at 8/9 see right now but has a small chance to play itself out.
Nebraska vs Mich. -root for Mich, pretty much same boat as NW, in but could play itself out.
Iowa vs Ill - root for Ill, Iowa on the bubble and needs to not play itself in.
PAC-12:
Colorado vs OSU - root for OSU, road loss to OSU would hurt CU’s chances and push them off the bubble.
Utah vs Oregon - root for Oregon, Oregon is farther from the field then Utah and probably will not be able to play it’s way in.
SEC:
Miss St. vs S.Car - root for S.Car, while this loss will not kill their chances a win probably makes them a lock.
Tex A&M vs Miss - root for Miss, I am not sure why A&M is not in over MSU as of now and even some mock brackets don’t even show them just out. They have a head to head if MSU, more quad 1 wins and less bad losses. I don’t think Miss can play it’s way in.
American:
USF vs Tulsa - USF is UNLV without the quad 1 wins, but a conference title. A loss would be nice.
FAU vs Memphis - root for Memphis, currently projected as a 8/9 seed but there NET wins/losses are comparable to UNLV but they have a high NET. I think they are in due to last year but I think they could drop with two losses. Memphis cloud play it’s way in, but would rather see FAU lose this game.
Ivy:
Princeton vs Penn - I don’t think Princeton gets an at large with no games against quad 1 teams and a 3-3 record against quad 2 but a loss would still be helpful.
Conference Tournaments:
Lose/Early or Win Teams:
James Madison (Sun Belt)
McNeese St (Southland)
Indiana St (MVC)
