I'm Back

[lobbybuu]

Apologies for being not as active as before, I've been trying to get the Twitter stuff handled. Thanks to those that have supported on that platform as well.

I've spoken with a top 2024 target and was told that they will be narrowing their options down and releasing an official top list of schools SOON.

Expect us to be firmly in the mix for this player & a true contender for him! As we all know, interest isn't always mutual so it is a great sign that he told me we'd be in the final group

 

[Rebelhustle]

So did I read one of your twitter posts right? Your thinking by the end of this upcoming week we will see a big transfer here or we will have an answer regardless if we are getting one more transfer?

 

[1Tripoda]

Apologies for being not as active as before, I've been trying to get the Twitter stuff handled. Thanks to those that have supported on that platform as well.

I've spoken with a top 2024 target and was told that they will be narrowing their options down and releasing an official top list of schools SOON.

Expect us to be firmly in the mix for this player & a true contender for him! As we all know, interest isn't always mutual so it is a great sign that he told me we'd be in the final group

Football or basketball? Love Tark. I was the fan of UNLV because Tark. I care more about football, though. Dang UNLV football have been a joke but since Odom came aboard, there is some hope...Care about basketball but not really...

 

[lobbybuu]

So did I read one of your twitter posts right? Your thinking by the end of this upcoming week we will see a big transfer here or we will have an answer regardless if we are getting one more transfer?

I guess both of the answers to your question will be yes.

But basically the person we zeroed in on will make a decision by the end of the week.

 

[lobbybuu]

Football or basketball? Love Tark. I was the fan of UNLV because Tark. I care more about football, though. Dang UNLV football have been a joke but since Odom came aboard, there is some hope...Care about basketball but not really...

Basketball!

We have real momentum with football. 4 new commits over the weekend. Some will go public soon!

 

[mwsn7022012]

I guess both of the answers to your question will be yes.

But basically the person we zeroed in on will make a decision by the end of the week.

I’m hoping it’s Adrame Diongue.

 

[art8]

Is there new legitimate substance to us moving conferences? Or is it still a pipe dream?

 

[WarthogRebel]

Is there new legitimate substance to us moving conferences? Or is it still a pipe dream?

IMO, Pipe Dream.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Is there new legitimate substance to us moving conferences? Or is it still a pipe dream?

It depends on who you are talking to...

 

[LVRebel2000]

Is there new legitimate substance to us moving conferences? Or is it still a pipe dream?

So hard to know with all of the speculation on the Pac 12 teams. Are AZ, CO, and others going to jump to the Big 12? Will Oregon and/or Washington get an offer to join the Big 10? What's the PAC 12 TV deal going to be?

I'm really curious to see how USC & UCLA leaving is going to work out for them. Obviously, they'll make more money, but how's it going to work for the non-football sports, with them having to travel so much further. Maybe it's not an issue, but IDK.

 

[Rebelhustle]

I’m hoping it’s Adrame Diongue.

I'm hoping too. I believe he would be a good fit here. Playing some minutes backing up and maybe playing when we decide to go bigger and then next year a starting role, but maybe he wants to go where he gets more minutes this year. If he is looking for minutes I'm surprised he did not stay with Washington State because of the bigs they lost.

 

[lobbybuu]

It's not a pipe dream. The real thing is everyone is waiting to see how the PAC will look after USC and UCLA leave

 

[Meister_Rebel]

Is there new legitimate substance to us moving conferences? Or is it still a pipe dream?

Good question. I read today that espn isn’t involved with serious negotiations with the pac12. Amazon isn’t pushing hard either. Apple is still in play and that would be an all streaming platform. Things aren’t looking good for them. If the dominant platform is a majority streaming platform that won’t play well with most schools. When it gets there I see some pac12 schools make announcements they are leaving for the big12. Where we end up at that point is still an unwritten chapter.

 

[LocoRebel]

Good question. I read today that espn isn’t involved with serious negotiations with the pac12. Amazon isn’t pushing hard either. Apple is still in play and that would be an all streaming platform. Things aren’t looking good for them. If the dominant platform is a majority streaming platform that won’t play well with most schools. When it gets there I see some pac12 schools make announcements they are leaving for the big12. Where we end up at that point is still an unwritten chapter.

I certainly understand that pac12 ending up on Apple tv+ would be a bad look for them.

But selfishly, it would be excellent for me. Although the subscription price would probably go up $5+/month. ... but the original programming on that service is actually really good, at least some of it.

 

[Masked_rebel]

I certainly understand that pac12 ending up on Apple tv+ would be a bad look for them.

But selfishly, it would be excellent for me. Although the subscription price would probably go up $5+/month. ... but the original programming on that service is actually really good, at least some of it.

My guess... Itll be a separate service much like MLS is. Probably ala carte options since itll attract more single use viewers rather than universal access through their base subscription, and probably somewhere in the same neighborhood of 100$ for the year...

 

[LocoRebel]

My guess... Itll be a separate service much like MLS is. Probably ala carte options since itll attract more single use viewers rather than universal access through their base subscription, and probably somewhere in the same neighborhood of 100$ for the year...

That's a great call. I could even see a world in which they handle pac12 similarly to how MLS was handled.

Didnt they get a deal that gave all subscribers access to MLS for 1 year then pay wall for subsequent? Not a bad idea to get folks used to the content and system.

 

[Masked_rebel]

That's a great call. I could even see a world in which they handle pac12 similarly to how MLS was handled.

Didnt they get a deal that gave all subscribers access to MLS for 1 year then pay wall for subsequent? Not a bad idea to get folks used to the content and system.

Yeah, and then T-Mobile stacked on top of it as well. Although I'm not sure if the market is the same for Pac 12 viewership as it would be for MLS. There's a reason why the big networks have tapped out and the dollars aren't making sense for them. One of the biggest factors in MLS moving to Apple was the fact that their international viewers could access the MLS content and grow its international market, and I doubt the PAC-12 has a big following in Europe, lol..

 

[LocoRebel]

I doubt the PAC-12 has a big following in Europe, lol..

For some reason this line got me 🤣🤣

 

[Meister_Rebel]

Can't imagine what it feels like in the Pac-12 right now when ESPN backs away. It just gets worse every day..

The Pac-12 might be screwed.....

 

[WarthogRebel]

Can't imagine what it feels like in the Pac-12 right now when ESPN backs away. It just gets worse every day..

The Pac-12 might be screwed.....

The school Presidents must be wetting their pants. That money is already allotted and they won't know what to do.

 

[JTthe2nd]

Couldn't happen to a more historically snobby conference. I love that PAC officials might be forced to look at UNLV for it's continued survival in the near future.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Couldn't happen to a more historically snobby conference. I love that PAC officials might be forced to look at UNLV for it's continued survival in the near future.

I'm curious as to why the PAC is having such a hard time getting a TV contract. I mean, I know they lost the LA teams with USC & UCLA going, but looking at the amount that schools from other conferences are getting, you'd still think there is value to the remaining schools. If there's no value, why would other conferences invite Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington, etc into their conference?

 

[vegas50]

I'm curious as to why the PAC is having such a hard time getting a TV contract. I mean, I know they lost the LA teams with USC & UCLA going, but looking at the amount that schools from other conferences are getting, you'd still think there is value to the remaining schools. If there's no value, why would other conferences invite Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington, etc into their conference?

Good Question! I've read that the Big 12 wants to extend their reach to the west coast to increase their eyeball count. After they lost Texas & OK. they know they need to extend their reach to compete with the Big 10 and SEC for viewers

 

[LVRebel2000]

Good Question! I've read that the Big 12 wants to extend their reach to the west coast to increase their eyeball count. After they lost Texas & OK. they know they need to extend their reach to compete with the Big 10 and SEC for viewers

I agree, but they wouldn't just add schools if they didn't think it would help them gain overall strength or value. So these schools obviously have value...at which point, it reverts to my previous question. Why is the PAC 12 having such a hard time getting a deal? I know USC & UCLA are big markets, but do they actually have a huge fanbase? I know a few USC fans, but no UCLA fans. I'm just speaking generally, as I don't know the numbers, but I'm guessing they're just looking at the LA market as being lost, and therefore, the total # of TV's.

 

[Masked_rebel]

I'm curious as to why the PAC is having such a hard time getting a TV contract. I mean, I know they lost the LA teams with USC & UCLA going, but looking at the amount that schools from other conferences are getting, you'd still think there is value to the remaining schools. If there's no value, why would other conferences invite Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington, etc into their conference?

You hit ot on the head.. losing the LA market and your 2 most valuable brands hurts your visibility and ability to get advertising dollars... as for why they'd invite the others- there's some self preservation involved along with national prestige. UW/UO/UA are well know institutions and athletic programs, and Utah has self created its own market... it's why you don't here about OSU or WSU in the same conversations or why CAL/Stanford aren't getting invites... so loss of market (2 valuable assets) along = less $$, and expansion by strengthening conference with perceived national brands is why those schools get tires kicked, especially since their ADs are connected to the P5s

 

[RebelScrub]

I'm curious as to why the PAC is having such a hard time getting a TV contract. I mean, I know they lost the LA teams with USC & UCLA going, but looking at the amount that schools from other conferences are getting, you'd still think there is value to the remaining schools. If there's no value, why would other conferences invite Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington, etc into their conference?

Because nobody watches TV

 

[lvrebalum2012]

IMO, this whole ordeal is exposing a larger issue amongst the college football landscape. No TV partners interested in PAC. BIG 10 contract not as great as it initially seemed. ACC contract is terrible for those teams and their teams want out.

Generally speaking, it seems like everything currently in place is on an unsustainable foundation.

 

[LVRebel2000]

You hit ot on the head.. losing the LA market and your 2 most valuable brands hurts your visibility and ability to get advertising dollars... as for why they'd invite the others- there's some self preservation involved along with national prestige. UW/UO/UA are well know institutions and athletic programs, and Utah has self created its own market... it's why you don't here about OSU or WSU in the same conversations or why CAL/Stanford aren't getting invites... so loss of market (2 valuable assets) along = less $$, and expansion by strengthening conference with perceived national brands is why those schools get tires kicked, especially since their ADs are connected to the P5s

I get it, but look at some of the other conferences, and the locations of those teams. The Big 12 will be losing it's two biggest teams in Texas and Oklahoma, yet they still have a bigger dollar amount that the PAC 12 is getting. Plus, they really have only 1 sizeable market in the remaining schools, and that's from TCU. See below.

Big 12 teams
TCU (Fort Worth, 7.8 million people)
Kansas St. (Manhattan, KS, 55k people)
Texas Tech (Lubbock, 325k people)
Oklahoma State (Stillwater, OK, 50k people)
Baylor (Waco, TX, 240k people)
Kansas (Lawrence, KS, 120k people)
West Virginia (Morgantown, WV, 35k people)
Iowa State (Ames, Iowa, 70k people)

The incoming schools have some better markets, but the brands of those teams isn't close to TX or Oklahoma, which are departing.

Incoming:
BYU (Provo, UT, 700k people)
UCF (Orlando, 2.6 Million people)
Cincinnati (Cincinnati, 2.3 million people)
Houston (Houston, 8 million)

The PAC still has some very large markets, to be competitive in terms of TV's, as the big 12, so it must be based on other factors.

U of Arizona (Tucson, 1.1 million)
ASU (Phoenix, 5 million)
Washington (Seattle, 4 million)
California (in greater Bay Area, so huge population depending on how you specify it)
Utah (SLC, 1.3M)
Colorado (Denver, 3M)

There are some smaller markets in terms of population, including WSU, Oregon, Oregon St, but Oregon & Oregon State have some pretty good sports programs, especially Oregon.

Anyways, just wondering how these groups are valuing the different schools, and conferences, as it's clearly not all about the city size.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Because nobody watches TV

If nobody watches TV, why are the SEC, ACC, Big 12, etc, getting big TV / streaming contracts?

 

[dcut03]

I think TV providers do not want to sign a long term deal if more teams leave. They don't want to be left on the hook for a substandard product down the road.

LA is the biggest market by far, but I would argue that Oregon is their next most valuable brand besides USC. USC I think captured the city a bit, with their football success of the early 2000's during the time they didn't have a pro team. UCLA, not as much. Oregon has a national brand. Partially due to their uniforms, but being a contender in football for so many years in a row, helped.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

If memory still serves me I recall the Pac12 wanting to wait to begin negotiations with their media partners. The Big12 said screw that and jumped in to their negotiations very early. It paid off. Had the Pac12, blame the previous Commish, jumped in early they probably would have been better off. But they screwed themselves. There is only so much money these media folks have to spend. It's not an bottomless barrel of money.

 

[rebel5280]

Come on Big 12!

 

[unlove]

The value of UNLV to a conference doesn’t necessarily lie in traditional metrics like academics (although UNLV checks that box now), win-loss records, conference championships, fan base or even market size. The things that you can fit neatly into a spreadsheet for comparison purposes with other institutions do not fully reflect UNLV’s value to a conference. Rather it is wrapped up more in the brand of Las Vegas than empirical metrics. Vegas punches way above its weight when making such comparisons. Conferences have tapped into this by holding their championships in LV. The P12 Commissioner understands this better than most having been an MGM Resorts executive. The question for the P12 is whether it gains any greater benefit by having UNLV as a member. Perhaps the additional value it would receive would not exceed the value brought by an entirely new market from another school. For the Big12 however the calculation may weigh more heavily towards adding UNLV as a member since it currently has no exposure to the Vegas market and its intrinsic values.

 

[LVRebel2000]

The value of UNLV to a conference doesn’t necessarily lie in traditional metrics like academics (although UNLV checks that box now), win-loss records, conference championships, fan base or even market size. The things that you can fit neatly into a spreadsheet for comparison purposes with other institutions do not fully reflect UNLV’s value to a conference. Rather it is wrapped up more in the brand of Las Vegas than empirical metrics. Vegas punches way above its weight when making such comparisons. Conferences have tapped into this by holding their championships in LV. The P12 Commissioner understands this better than most having been an MGM Resorts executive. The question for the P12 is whether it gains any greater benefit by having UNLV as a member. Perhaps the additional value it would receive would not exceed the value brought by an entirely new market from another school. For the Big12 however the calculation may weigh more heavily towards adding UNLV as a member since it currently has no exposure to the Vegas market and its intrinsic values.

100% agree. Hopefully we will be in the mix in the near future.

 

[Babalouie]

100% agree. Hopefully we will be in the mix in the near future.

This is a good time to just sit quietly on the sidelines while everything shakes out. P12-10-8-? has it’s own troubles to deal with. The MWC may become the predominant west coast conference by this time next year.

 

[dcut03]

The value of UNLV to a conference doesn’t necessarily lie in traditional metrics like academics (although UNLV checks that box now), win-loss records, conference championships, fan base or even market size. The things that you can fit neatly into a spreadsheet for comparison purposes with other institutions do not fully reflect UNLV’s value to a conference. Rather it is wrapped up more in the brand of Las Vegas than empirical metrics. Vegas punches way above its weight when making such comparisons. Conferences have tapped into this by holding their championships in LV. The P12 Commissioner understands this better than most having been an MGM Resorts executive. The question for the P12 is whether it gains any greater benefit by having UNLV as a member. Perhaps the additional value it would receive would not exceed the value brought by an entirely new market from another school. For the Big12 however the calculation may weigh more heavily towards adding UNLV as a member since it currently has no exposure to the Vegas market and its intrinsic values.

I don't disagree, but I can see this bubble bursting at some point.

At some point you have to rely on local support for all of these teams. Especially baseball.

I think the Knights are good. They established an identify early. Early success certainly helped. Also being a true Vegas franchise, and the first major sports franchise also helps.

Raiders are also fine. NFL is the most popular sport in the country. 8 regular season home games, each game is an event. Penty of (close enough) LA fans to help support. Raiders is a bit of a national brand. However, Mark Davis is already complaining that there are too many away fans at his games. Depending on travelers has it's downside.

MLB is tough. Soo many games.

Then there is WNBA to boot.


My point being, Vegas already has probably too many sports franchises, though it is working so far. There still is the novelty of newness. But can it be sustained?


For us UNLV fans, I think the good news is how the WNBA was able to get some support with their success. That is a pretty niche sport.

College football is the second most popular sport in this country. Which is good for UNLV, college basketball is second tier, but above WNBA that is for sure. Plus we do have a history that will help bring fans back with enough success.

My point being is UNLV does have a shot, but the market success is definitely inflated at the moment and probably not sustainable. I think UNLV can be attractive enough for a power conference invite. But I do think they need to be successful enough to show the support to really get the attention of these conferences. ESPECIALLY the Big 12. They are not desperate and can be choosy.