I am torn on what UNLV can score in this game. Rebels scoring is going to be predicated upon OL which currently employs two true freshman for the RG and two fundamentally weak RT's. My fear is that the Bruins are going to key on them the whole game and pressure Decker into bad throws or 'happy feet'. Hopefully, knowing UCLA may try this tactic, UNLV can alter game plan to work with this issue (doubtful but they'll need to counter some way).
I'm not as concerned with defense with the exception of endurance. I think UCLA is going to score purely based on Rosen's ability to throw the ball. Our defense will do OK as long as they contain the long ball. If our DB's can't challenge in every pass and Baer isn't calling pass coverage D well, this is going to be a long day.
My 'very preseason' spread was UNLV +30. I knew the NIU spread was way too high and had UNLV at a conservative +14. They far exceeded my expectations by not only competing but having chance to tie it on last drive.
Unfortunately, I'm worried about this game and my initial preseason spread remains at UNLV +30. I honestly think it could go higher as UCLA is going to try and begin its case for playoff and top 4 ranking. You can't play 9 true freshman, play a top ten team and think the spread isn't going to be high.
Now, that being said, there are some variables that could influence the end score of the game (emotion, Sanchez ability to motivate, playing at home in potential sell out, blackout). I think Sanchez will have these kids fired up and while skill and depth generally wins games, emotion can be a big influencer. Maybe not enough to win the game, but keep it competitive. Even if there is no hope of winning game in 3rd and 4th, Sanchez will keep these kids focused and motivated.
So all in all, as a betting man, I wouldn't touch this game with a ten foot pole. If you had to make me chose, I'd go with UCLA -28.5, but I'd never do that to my team. Once again, I could easily see the Rebs covering but there are too many variables to suggest otherwise.
Nonetheless, I will cheering the Rebels on this Saturday night hoping that we can pull off what would be considered one of the best wins (unexpected) in UNLV history.