Yeah, that's what I've been wondering also. I wouldn't think the departing schools would have to pay until they actually leave, but I don't have the contract to verify that. If that's the case, it wouldn't be for 2 more years, right?
For the longevity of the MWC, I think the real question is regarding the media deal. From what I can see, the current deal runs through the 2025/2026 season. So basically, the rest of this school year, then all of next. However, I'm sure that the conference would be in negotiations with the media groups much earlier to start working out the details of an extension, or a new contract.
That would put the MWC in a tough spot for negotiations. 4 of the bigger schools have put in notice to leave, so the new contract would likely be quite a bit lower than the current one. This may be where UNLV and the other schools have the ability to vote to break up the conference. If, hypothetically, the remaining MWC get a new media deal offer than caps out at $1,000,000 a year, or something like that, would you be better trying to break away to join a different conference? I'd say yes for at least a majority of the schools including UNLV, AF, USU, UNM.
They may not be able to have the number of schools required to dissolve the conference initially, but how many MWC schools are required to agree to whatever new media deal is offered? I'd think it would have to be a majority, right? So if Hawaii doesn't get a vote, then 4 of the 7 remaining members could basically veto any new media deal, which would essentially blow up the conference. Why would the schools stay if they're not going to be getting a paycheck?
That would be my line of thinking in this. Get those 4 schools together to agree to not sign off on any new media deal. Then, go to the other schools and tell them what they're planning to do. At this point, you come to an agreement with the 4 departing schools, to where they pay a percentage of the fee, which gets split evenly between all of the remaining schools, and then you vote to dissolve the conference.
This could be a totally wrong line of thinking since I don't know the details of how these all shake out, but it seems at least reasonable IMO.