Looks like the PAC implosion is beginning...
- Thread starter MonsterJam
- Start date
1. (Assuming Colorado to the Big 12) If the Big12, Big 10 and SEC settle at 16 teams each, there are 5 spots left to be taken. Even if a couple of those selections come from teams moving up from "lower" P5 conferences ( ACC, PAC 12) the end result will be 5 Group of five teams moving to a Power 5 conference ( if you believe the PAC 12 can stay together) IMO, we could barely be in that set of 5 teams. Or the PAC could disband and fill those slots and we'd be out of P5 - and be in a potentially expanded MWC.
2. (Assuming Colorado to the Big 12) If the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC settle at 18 teams each, there are 11 left to be taken. IMO, it's likely the PAC disbands to fill those spots. In that case the ACC may also add two more making a total of 13, G5 openings. If the PAC disbands and they settle at 18 each then our chances decrease slightly because the majority of spots will be taken by a disbanded PAC conference.
2. In the unlikely event the three top conferences go to 20 teams each, that would mean 17 open spots ( 19 if ACC can keep up), an almost guaranteed disbanding of the PAC 12. This would greatly increase the possibility of us getting in. Unless the ACC gets raided like the PAC and the Power conferences go to three.
It's a crazy time to be an NCAA sports fan.
2. (Assuming Colorado to the Big 12) If the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC settle at 18 teams each, there are 11 left to be taken. IMO, it's likely the PAC disbands to fill those spots. In that case the ACC may also add two more making a total of 13, G5 openings. If the PAC disbands and they settle at 18 each then our chances decrease slightly because the majority of spots will be taken by a disbanded PAC conference.
2. In the unlikely event the three top conferences go to 20 teams each, that would mean 17 open spots ( 19 if ACC can keep up), an almost guaranteed disbanding of the PAC 12. This would greatly increase the possibility of us getting in. Unless the ACC gets raided like the PAC and the Power conferences go to three.
It's a crazy time to be an NCAA sports fan.
Outside UW/Oregon/Utah, the remaining Pac 12 teams aren't really value adds.. that's part of the problem they've had with their new TV deal. UCLA/USC really were economic drivers of their conference and lossing them basically guaranteed they'd fall apart. Yeah UA has name recognition and Stanfords other programs are good but theres a limit and in the new NCAA order, past inclusion doesn't necessarily mean a lateral move to another P5 is automatic
Still some big markets. Bay area, Seattle, Phoenix, Salt Lake. Oregon is a national brand.
If UNLV is floated out because of it's markets, many remaining PAC schools have better markets and more proven athletic and academic records. Fan support too.
If UNLV is floated out because of it's markets, many remaining PAC schools have better markets and more proven athletic and academic records. Fan support too.
Besides SDSU, SMU is the next target. Those are the clear top two. I have read several say us, Fresno and Boise are in the next tier. Though it sounded like both of them are ahead of us.
I understand the market arguments against UNLV, but there’s a reason the major league teams (not meaning MLB specifically but including the As) are investing their product in Vegas. I can’t imagine that is going ignored by P5 conferences. Layer in the attraction of LV (events in Vegas sell and are marketable on TV), away-game fan interest, growth potential (this sounds like a weak reason but the continued and steady growth of the market over the last 5-6 decades is well documented and provides a rather strong economic case for continued growth) plus the continued development of UNLV (here again a very strong growth pattern for an institution that reached Carnegie R-1 status in 60 years (by comparison it took UNR 140 years to reach it and that was after UNLV did)), and it just leaves me thinking we’ve got to at least be in the discussion. 10-20 years from now the conference that invites UNLV (if it happens) could very well have the last laugh.
I see it that way too. If the city is ready for pro sports, and it’s thrived with it, then it’s ready for a big conference, as well. The pipedreams of 15 years ago are a little bit more solid BECAUSE of pro sports. Vegas had the stage and has done well with it.
UNLV has enough in terms of facilities and academics and everything the city has to offer.
Our attendance has always been poor for football and really dipped with basketball (success of pro sports pulling people plus a lack of success). So that part hurts. But I’m willing to bet that in terms of opposing fans attending, Vegas would lead most. Vegas is a destination and facilities are strong …
I do think a factor against us is reputation/perception … doesn’t matter if it’s not reality. UNLV is a transient lower level school that snobby money wants nothing to do with. And in spite of 10-20 years of relative success in hoops, the perception of UNLV athletics outside of that timeframe is very poor (golf ain’t saving us).
I still think we are on the outside looking in. But much closer than we’ve been. Tbh, I welcome any changes. The “rivalries” are stale. Whether we are good or we suck, whether we win or lose, games vs AFA, Wyoming, CSU, SJSU, Fresno etc, just don’t pump you up all that much. I’m sure they feel the same way about UNLV, but they don’t have anything going for them IMO.
Why don’t we just let it implode and the leftovers from the Pac..join the MWC?
Much better if you ask me.
Much better if you ask me.
If the PAC gets the same TV money it got last contract, we would get about 29 million more per year that we wouldn't get for standing pat. We signed a 10 year contract for MWC rights in 2020. It's a no-brainer to get to any P5 conference we can. Even a wounded, limping PAC? will still command far more than we'd get for staying.
Lingering perceptions of UNLV may indeed have something to do with it. Today’s RJ article (https://digital.olivesoftware.com/O...23/07/29&entity=Ar03103&sk=FBF8013D&mode=text) notes AZ as the next Big12 target but the Tucson TV market is ranked 68th nationally where LV is 42nd (https://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets) and growing rapidly so it can’t be all about market size, which leads to academics and related school perceptions. It would be great if LVCVA put the same effort into moving UNLV into a P5 as they have convincing the NV Legislature to subsidize NFL & MLB stadiums. It’s marketing prowess and strong ties with major league sports executives would serve UNLV well in the power lunch conversations among the few who are making these decisions. I’m not convinced gaming executives see UNLV in a P5 as necessarily beneficial to their bottom lines since Vegas already hosts major conference championships and having UNLV in one of those conferences could disrupt that order (as has occurred with MWC Trny location (until UNLV was beatable under its own roof). UNLV needs to build the case to folks in our own backyard and turn them into aggressive advocates. On their own I struggle seeing UNLV makes its own case in a convincing manner.
I have read for months that pac12 will address expansion after new media deal is set. Commisionner still saying that after Colorado has left. What broadcast company would give pac12 anything now that it is a large crap shoot of who will be left in the pac12?
This is what happens when the math part of the brain is overdeveloped and the common sense part is underdeveloped
![[roll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/roll.r191677.gif "roll [roll]")
Gotta think even a lesser PAC12 would have. A larger tv deal than the MWC.
Depends totally on what lesser Pac12 is. It could be just bay area schools, wash st, and Oregon st. In that case mwc > pac 4.
As pac is so in flux, who would give them anything now? A network guy is not going to risk his/her career giving so much per slice of the pie without knowing what is in the whole pie.
The Pac12 will be meeting tomorrow to present Media Package to its members. Should be interesting to see what they've managed to cobble together. How much money per school? How much Linear TV? How much streaming? Which school will be the first to call the Big12.
Gonna be a fun day.
Gonna be a fun day.
I hope they’re inviting UNLV to sit in the meeting, too, in case we don’t accept that AFC West invite.
You have be careful about TV markets. Those rules don't quite apply for established big state schools.
Most Big state schools are in smaller towns with relatively small markets. (Tucson isn't even that small). They often have a very strong fanbase within that states and beyond.
Espeically looking at Arizona, who has been absolutely a consistent blue blood in basketball, where that absolutely matters in the Big 12.
I think our Market is our advantage when comparing to other G5 schools looking to upgrade. But those comparisons do not matter to established P5 schools.
Most Big state schools are in smaller towns with relatively small markets. (Tucson isn't even that small). They often have a very strong fanbase within that states and beyond.
Espeically looking at Arizona, who has been absolutely a consistent blue blood in basketball, where that absolutely matters in the Big 12.
I think our Market is our advantage when comparing to other G5 schools looking to upgrade. But those comparisons do not matter to established P5 schools.
Last edited:
I dunno, so many conflicting points it just seems like the league that takes the gamble on Vegas (pun intended) will be the smart one down the road. That’d doesn’t mean it will happen bc these conferences are loaded with self-bloated folks who look down their noses at UNLV and in the end that bias may very well continue to be the majority.
UNLV does have a pretty big upside no doubt about that.
But trying to compare UNLV vs Arizona right now, it is not even close. They have half the state of Arizona, let along the national fans that basketball has awarded them. UNLV has part of Las Vegas.
The part that no one wants to admit is that Vegas is already punching above it's weight with it's market. Having NFL, NHL, WNBA, and soon to MLB in a Market this size, doesn't happen. It only works due to tourism, but it is hard to say that will be enough to sustain a franchise over the years.
So the bubble may burst on that at least some. Then UNLV which already struggles to capture it's own market also gets to compete with all of that.
UNLV would be a gamble, which is why I think conferences that have the options will likely pass. Like the Big 12. I can see the Pac jumping in though, especially if they are collapsing. I think UNLV has a much better market share than Tulane. Tulane has better research money, but is a small private school in a similar market. They have a worse market share than us, and would create some travel issues for the PAC.
UNLV should ask to join one of these conferences at a discounted rate… seriously. We will come in and take a smaller cut of the money for 3-5 years just to be included. It would still be a better cut than the MWC & these conferences would feel that they haven’t given up much in return for the “upside” UNLV has.
It’s truly insane that we are even in the conversation given how bad UNLV has been in football. Imagine if they had a Fresno State resume in football or even like 5 bowl appearances in the last 10 years. It’s really a shame, it was very attainable to actually be in a much better position than they currently sit. Without even being a top performing MW school, just mediocre, but instead theyve been garbage and thus e attendance has been and so had national attention.
It’s truly insane that we are even in the conversation given how bad UNLV has been in football. Imagine if they had a Fresno State resume in football or even like 5 bowl appearances in the last 10 years. It’s really a shame, it was very attainable to actually be in a much better position than they currently sit. Without even being a top performing MW school, just mediocre, but instead theyve been garbage and thus e attendance has been and so had national attention.
I wonder what our Lousy leaders in place are doing? Probably holding the door for people.
“hi, we’re UNLV and thank you for using our football facility to host your awesome conference.
The Pac 10 offices are located in Oakland. That place is a dump. It’s gonna be a virtual graveyard soon.
And you guys wanna join?
Anyways, I met some friends at the gym and they get season tickets and they sneak downstairs as well. They see me all the time on the screen. Told them to sit right next to me at the games.
“hi, we’re UNLV and thank you for using our football facility to host your awesome conference.
The Pac 10 offices are located in Oakland. That place is a dump. It’s gonna be a virtual graveyard soon.
And you guys wanna join?
Anyways, I met some friends at the gym and they get season tickets and they sneak downstairs as well. They see me all the time on the screen. Told them to sit right next to me at the games.
I’d do this with the Big 12! If we could afford to, we should only take enough to keep the department going, NIL and coaches paid for the first 3 years to sweeten the deal!
Last edited:
Like that approach. Put some skin on the game. Give the other schools the lion’s share of the revenue from Allegiant games and take a much smaller portion of the Conf revenues until we reach a certain number of wins over a set period of time (or some other metric). Make us earn it and give them less risk in gambling on UNLV.
I've been suggesting something similar as well. I'm sure as a non-P5 team coming in, we'd likely have to do something like that. I had heard that SMU was basically coming in for free, just to get in the door. But with no deals signed, there's no way to verify that.
Unless that's clearly defined I can't see any administration accepting that. It's part of the reason the Pac-12 can't get their TV deal agreed upon because administration's want to know exact $$ amount they're getting each year, not leave it up to a matrix of different performance or attendance metrics. Not to mention flushing attendance $$ from traveling fan bases... I went to KU football games and half the stands would be full of visiting Big 12 fans, and while it sucked, that was a huge chunk of their revenue each year, just can't see us agreeing to give chunk to other schools and to the stadium fund just to get to the table.
If we received the same or slightly more than we receive in MWC for the first few years why wouldn’t we?
Now they are talking 4 teams to the Big 10 which would leave what I think will happen. The PAC 12 will become the MWC plus OSU and WSU. https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ington-california-and-stanford-to-conference/
yeah, if that actually happens, then whoever is accepted will jump to the Big 12, and any remnants likely to the MWC. Crazy the amount of twists and turns. It would be interesting if Apple, or some other group comes in with a higher number for the PAC to get their foot in the door. If the PAC breaks up, then there ends up being fewer power conferences, so it reduces the number of media companies that would be putting out content. If Apple wants in, they may need to pony up now, or else they won't be able to get in for quite some time.
Interesting point. If Apple wants to be a player in this space, then they may want to sweeten the pot in terms of payout.
Their best chance of success would be keeping as much of the remaining PAC together as they can to keep some of those markets. It's not like Apple doesn't have the money.
If they don't care as much then it will be all for naught.
Problem is that Apple may not just have to match the Big 12, perhaps exceed it in order to counter the inconvenience for may being forced to use Apple to watch their college football games. They would still need to partner with ESPN and/or Fox to allow bigger games to reach a broader audience. Perhaps a lat night game of the week.
I do think some of the PAC schools would rather stay if they could. I also think that the Big 10 is a little hesitant, since they may not be able to guarantee the same per school payout the more they expand.
I've been reading various source reporting on the Big10. It seems that their media partners only want Oregon and Washington. The Big10 officials are willing to consider CAL and Stanford as well. But, I think there is also hesitation regarding Cal and Stanford in terms of diluting the media revenue. One other issue is that there are Big10 Presidents/officials that don't want to be responsible for the death of the Pac12 and so I don't see anything proceeding from the Big10 if the Pac12 stays intact. Here is where the ultimate factor in the Pac12 staying alive is where it's all up to Arizona. Nothing is going to happen until Arizona makes their choice.
The Big10 concerns over the Pac12 staying alive seems odd. They didn't give a crap taking USC and UCLA when it came to boosting their media revenue. I think it's just a tactic from some that don't want to dilute their revenue. But, if it's true that their media partners want OR and WA then they will probably boost the overall revenue for them but won't for Cal & Stanford. I think that is what really bothers them.
Something will happen soon. Arizona can't think that the Apple deal which is probably as little as $10 million less than what they would get going to the Big12 is a good thing. If Arizona wants to grow it's program it's not going to happen with fruit money. They need the real cash from the Big12.
This has been my impression all along. The BIG wants to lock up the entire west coast. Also, the BIG wants to also expand their research capabilities with the addition of UDub, Cal and Stanford. But I don't think they want to be blamed for dissolving the PAC. But ultimately, the departure of UCLA and USC is the root cause of the PAC's demise IMO.
Yes I think they want Cal and Stanford because educationally they match up.
So 20 teams? Maybe SEC robs the ACC to make it to 20. Wonder where we end up after the ACC and Big 12 fight for the table scraps?
FSU came out today and said their leaving is inevitable. You know they will end up in the SEC.
FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, all go to SEC...
Duke gets F'd.. yes no tears shed
Still think SEC might come for Baylor even with their religious affiliation just to maximize its Texas footprint.
Sources: Oregon, Washington set to join Big Ten
Oregon and Washington are finalizing a deal to join the Big Ten in a conference that would expand to 18 members in 2024, sources told ESPN.
