PAC HIRES OCTAGON

[Bullmastiff 1]

PAC recently hired consulting firm Octagon to help with finding media partners. Seems like maybe that should have been their 1st move? But I digress..

Would anybody else find it funny if Octagon and whatever media partner they land on told them a reverse merger makes the most fiscal sense..

 

[LVRebel2000]

PAC recently hired consulting firm Octagon to help with finding media partners. Seems like maybe that should have been their 1st move? But I digress..

Would anybody else find it funny if Octagon and whatever media partner they land on told them a reverse merger makes the most fiscal sense..

that would be hilarious. I'm really curious to see what they end up getting in terms of media offers. I hope it ends up being low enough that they do actually consider a reverse merger. Not likely though

 

[RebelinWA]

PAC recently hired consulting firm Octagon to help with finding media partners. Seems like maybe that should have been there 1st move? But I digress..

Would anybody else find it funny if Octagon and whatever media partner they land on told them a reverse merger makes the most fiscal sense..

In my opinion, I believe this move was forced upon Gould. While the traitor schools have no official vote in the running of the pac; I wouldn’t mind be surprised if there haven’t been issues or questions with Pac leadership. The conference is in genuine danger of folding. Again. The options you have left on the table don’t hold water to “metrics” of our former traitor snob schools.

 

[Gator 82]

PAC recently hired consulting firm Octagon to help with finding media partners. Seems like maybe that should have been their 1st move? But I digress..

Would anybody else find it funny if Octagon and whatever media partner they land on told them a reverse merger makes the most fiscal sense..

 

[Pistol Pete 1]

PAC recently hired consulting firm Octagon to help with finding media partners. Seems like maybe that should have been their 1st move? But I digress..

Would anybody else find it funny if Octagon and whatever media partner they land on told them a reverse merger makes the most fiscal sense..

Ocams Razor maybe?

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Ocams Razor maybe?

Without 12-15 million dollar media deal they aren't enticing Memphis and Co from the AAC. Travel costs don't make sense.

The AAC get 9 million per school. And that was with these schools factored into that deal.

Houston, Cincy, SMU (All left).

So their next deal may be less. Although they have bolstered by adding Army and a couple others.

If a lineup consisting of Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Cincy, Houston, USF only warranted 9 million, I'm not sure how the PAC gets to 12. I could be wrong and totally underestimating what the new PAC could draw. But without Memphis and Tulane I can't see their media deal being more than 7-8 million with current roster.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

In my opinion, I believe this move was forced upon Gould. While the traitor schools have no official vote in the running of the pac; I wouldn’t mind be surprised if there haven’t been issues or questions with Pac leadership. The conference is in genuine danger of folding. Again. The options you have left on the table don’t hold water to “metrics” of our former traitor snob schools.

They had to keep initial 4 schools under wraps. So it's possible they couldn't hire a consultant/media evaluation company to start. But once you got Boise and company why not hire one then? Cats out of the bag at that point.

Then get solid numbers to present to Memphis vs the bad offer they laid out.

 

[Knight Rebel702]

Without 12-15 million dollar media deal they aren't enticing Memphis and Co from the AAC. Travel costs don't make sense.

The AAC get 9 million per school. And that was with these schools factored into that deal.

Houston, Cincy, SMU (All left).

So their next deal may be less. Although they have bolstered by adding Army and a couple others.

If a lineup consisting of Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Cincy, Houston, USF only warranted 9 million, I'm not sure how the PAC gets to 12. I could be wrong and totally underestimating what the new PAC could draw. But without Memphis and Tulane I can't see their media deal being more than 7-8 million with current roster.

Talking about Media deals.

Does anyone know what the MW deal will look like 2 years from now? Hopefully we can at least triple our current one.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Talking about Media deals.

Does anyone what the MW deal will look like 2 years from now? Hopefully we can at least triple our current one.

It will remain about the same and considering what we lost that has to be viewed as a win. Adding Hawaii as full member actually might be what saves the deal from actually decreasing.

Hawaii big market. Plus their games get a fair amount of views/interest because of gambling. They tend to be last game of the day.

What's great is UNLV was promised not to make less than what they make now plus the 1.5ish milliin each year.

 

[RebelinWA]

Talking about Media deals.

Does anyone what the MW deal will look like 2 years from now? Hopefully we can at least triple our current one.

It will remain about the same and considering what we lost that has to be viewed as a win. Adding Hawaii as full member actually might be what saves the deal from actually decreasing.

Hawaii big market. Plus their games get a fair amount of views/interest because of gambling. They tend to be last game of the day.

What's great is UNLV was promised not to make less than what they make now plus the 1.5ish milliin each year.

As currently configured, minus the traitor school, I expect to be $5-7m. Grabbing GCU or St Marys might impact us an extra half million. Grabbing Hawaii was pretty big.

On the other hand, the Pac being folded into the MW might get us $8-10m.

 

[dcut03]

This all makes sense.

Their advisors from the beginining were there media partners. Their targets were picked specifically to make everyone the most money.

UNLV turning them down, and basically all of the MW now locked out, they are scrambling. So bringing in a new advisory team makes sense. But it isn't like the PAC were just going rogue from the beginning. Everything was done with their media partners heavy advice.

They are one team away. Things are not that dire. They will end up with a better contract per team then what the MW will get, and better than what they would have gotten with a merger. So from that persective it is a success.

The cost up front looks steep now and even with reductions, the break even point seems pretty far off for the PAC 2. But the new teams? Not a bad deal for them.

 

[RebelinWA]

This all makes sense.

Their advisors from the beginining were there media partners. Their targets were picked specifically to make everyone the most money.

UNLV turning them down, and basically all of the MW now locked out, they are scrambling. So bringing in a new advisory team makes sense. But it isn't like the PAC were just going rogue from the beginning. Everything was done with their media partners heavy advice.

They are one team away. Things are not that dire. They will end up with a better contract per team then what the MW will get, and better than what they would have gotten with a merger. So from that persective it is a success.

The cost up front looks steep now and even with reductions, the break even point seems pretty far off for the PAC 2. But the new teams? Not a bad deal for them.

Getting that last school might bankrupt them. The AAC has some funds to play with to win a bidding war, so likely those schools are out. As much as it might hurt Boise or sdsu; the best fit for that conference is still UNLV.

If the Pac can’t sell out to buy UNLV out; then that means they have to buy out NMST or something similar. If I am NMST, or UTSA; I am playing hardball for a full share. It’ll hurt their “metrics”, and more importantly their pride. They don’t have a deep war chest.

 

[dcut03]

Getting that last school might bankrupt them. The AAC has some funds to play with to win a bidding war, so likely those schools are out. As much as it might hurt Boise or sdsu; the best fit for that conference is still UNLV.

If the Pac can’t sell out to buy UNLV out; then that means they have to buy out NMST or something similar. If I am NMST, or UTSA; I am playing hardball for a full share. It’ll hurt their “metrics”, and more importantly their pride. They don’t have a deep war chest.

They can go get NMSU and still be ahead of a merger payout. Obviously that would hurt their bottom line and their precious, precious reputation (lol).

I think they need outside help on who they can target that will maximize what they can get at this point. But they can get a team that brings nothing to the media table and still have a much better deal than what we are about to get.

 

[oneepstein]

I can’t see them coming up with enough money to get at least two teams from the AAC, especially if what someone else said is true, that the AAC has money in reserve to counter them.

I doubt reverse merger still works with us adding Hawaii full and UTEP, but it still might be their best option.

Is it the best option for UNLV and AF, and to a lesser degree the other schools? Probably yes for the other schools, maybe yes for AF, not sure on UNLV.

Same goes for if the PAC comes back to UNLV with a better offer. Even if the PAC offers to cover all fees I’m not sure it’s worth it. UNLV still has a deficit to deal with and needs to up Odoms deal. With the money they’re getting this seems easy, without it they’ll end up having to go to the regents and politics come in to play.

Plus, likely losing the free card to go to an AQ conference is kinda sticky.

 

[RebelinWA]

If a school leaves the AAC with less than 27 months' notice, the exit fee is about $27.5m. That number drops to $10m when given proper notice.

If schools are considering leaving the AAC to join the Pac-12, the projected exit cost is nearly $27.5 million per school. Yes, they could negotiate that down.

In 2023, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF negotiated an early buyout to join the Big 12. The AAC reportedly wanted $45 million per school, but the buyout was negotiated down to $18 million per school. Add in the $27.5 from SMU and $17m from UConn.

Following the gorilla math, the AAC has close to $90m-$100m in just previous exit fees to entice their schools to stay. Similar to what Gloria is doing, adding an extra $3-4m, for the 4 schools per year for the next 3 year is absolutely doable.

 

[WarthogRebel]

This has become a mess. I believe it's at least partially due to personal animosity. The university presidents need to fire both Gloria and Teresa. Then get a reverse merger done asap.

 

[RebelinWA]

This has become a mess. I believe it's at least partially due to personal animosity. The university presidents need to fire both Gloria and Teresa. Then get a reverse merger done asap.

Beautiful thing about hiring Octagon. They could very well make the case clear that reverse merger is the best option for both conferences. Octagon could begin rebuilding the relationship between conferences too.

 

[dcut03]

If a school leaves the AAC with less than 27 months' notice, the exit fee is about $27.5m. That number drops to $10m when given proper notice.

If schools are considering leaving the AAC to join the Pac-12, the projected exit cost is nearly $27.5 million per school. Yes, they could negotiate that down.

In 2023, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF negotiated an early buyout to join the Big 12. The AAC reportedly wanted $45 million per school, but the buyout was negotiated down to $18 million per school. Add in the $27.5 from SMU and $17m from UConn.

Following the gorilla math, the AAC has close to $90m-$100m in just previous exit fees to entice their schools to stay. Similar to what Gloria is doing, adding an extra $3-4m, for the 4 schools per year for the next 3 year is absolutely doable.

Yes, but i would assume that the buyouts could be less.

The exit fees are driven by remaining money gauranteed from their existing contract. They tend to reduce the closer to the end of the contract, not increase.

As for exit fee negotiation I found this from an article when SDSU was flirting with the PAC last year:

“Exit fees are there for a reason, but they’re also highly negotiable and can be overcome, regardless of what it says in writing or in the by-laws of the conference,” retired Fox Sports Networks President Bob Thompson explained on Episode 79 of The SDSU Podcast. “So, I don’t look at any of these dates as a huge issue. Certainly, if you play it right down the middle per the terms of the by-laws or the Grant of Rights, whatever the governing agreement is for the Mountain West Conference is, it’s pretty simple, but even if all the circumstances don’t fall in line the way you wish, it’s still possible to move on.”

Thompson pointed to a recent precedent to prove his insight. When Oklahoma and Texas left the Big XII, the exit fee, according to the agreement the universities signed, should have been two years of conference revenue. In 2023, the Big XII revenue with OU and UT included would have been $37 million for each team. The exit fee should have been $147 million combined for both schools. Texas and Oklahoma agreed to pay $100 million, a 32% reduction of that total.


This also talks about exit fees being driven by conference revenue. With reduced conference revenue gauranteed in the books ( with a contract expiring) fees will likely go down.

I agree that the ship with Memphis and the other AAC teams has probably sailed. BUT to play devils advocate, they are getting ~ 9 mill currently, but that won't last forever. Not sure when that expires, but just like us, when you lose your 4 best markets, you are not going to be making the same. The new AAC teams are not making the full 9, but they were promised an equal share eventually. The top of the AAC will likely be making less sooner than later? How much less, hard to say.


Also to point out the Big 12 as a point of reference. Their total exit fees are very close the the total exit fees the traiterous 5 are due to the MW. We may be looking at 100 mil, not 145 mil.

 

[Rebel1986]

Yes, but i would assume that the buyouts could be less.

The exit fees are driven by remaining money gauranteed from their existing contract. They tend to reduce the closer to the end of the contract, not increase.

As for exit fee negotiation I found this from an article when SDSU was flirting with the PAC last year:

“Exit fees are there for a reason, but they’re also highly negotiable and can be overcome, regardless of what it says in writing or in the by-laws of the conference,” retired Fox Sports Networks President Bob Thompson explained on Episode 79 of The SDSU Podcast. “So, I don’t look at any of these dates as a huge issue. Certainly, if you play it right down the middle per the terms of the by-laws or the Grant of Rights, whatever the governing agreement is for the Mountain West Conference is, it’s pretty simple, but even if all the circumstances don’t fall in line the way you wish, it’s still possible to move on.”

Thompson pointed to a recent precedent to prove his insight. When Oklahoma and Texas left the Big XII, the exit fee, according to the agreement the universities signed, should have been two years of conference revenue. In 2023, the Big XII revenue with OU and UT included would have been $37 million for each team. The exit fee should have been $147 million combined for both schools. Texas and Oklahoma agreed to pay $100 million, a 32% reduction of that total.


This also talks about exit fees being driven by conference revenue. With reduced conference revenue gauranteed in the books ( with a contract expiring) fees will likely go down.

I agree that the ship with Memphis and the other AAC teams has probably sailed. BUT to play devils advocate, they are getting ~ 9 mill currently, but that won't last forever. Not sure when that expires, but just like us, when you lose your 4 best markets, you are not going to be making the same. The new AAC teams are not making the full 9, but they were promised an equal share eventually. The top of the AAC will likely be making less sooner than later? How much less, hard to say.


Also to point out the Big 12 as a point of reference. Their total exit fees are very close the the total exit fees the traiterous 5 are due to the MW. We may be looking at 100 mil, not 145 mil.

When everything washes out, I can easily see both Memphis and UNLV being prime targets for the Big 12.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

This all makes sense.

Their advisors from the beginining were there media partners. Their targets were picked specifically to make everyone the most money.

UNLV turning them down, and basically all of the MW now locked out, they are scrambling. So bringing in a new advisory team makes sense. But it isn't like the PAC were just going rogue from the beginning. Everything was done with their media partners heavy advice.

They are one team away. Things are not that dire. They will end up with a better contract per team then what the MW will get, and better than what they would have gotten with a merger. So from that persective it is a success.

The cost up front looks steep now and even with reductions, the break even point seems pretty far off for the PAC 2. But the new teams? Not a bad deal for them.

The thing is...

Their media deal will be better. But it may not be what the MWC 4 were sold on.

And

OSU and WSU are use to operating 20+ mil from media rights.

If they land around 8-10 vs 12-15 that most definitely is an issue for them going forward.

Are they in 'trouble' no.

Is there possibly some second guessing and questions being raised about the direction this is going? I would say probably so.

They'll get to their 8 but the talk of them reclaiming their 'Power conference' status is probably nonsense at this point.

 

[1Tripoda]

What does this mean? Is the PAC ran out of idea?

 

[Pistol Pete 1]

What does this mean? Is the PAC ran out of idea?

Their commissioner did!

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

What does this mean? Is the PAC ran out of idea?

They had..

Plan A, B, C and D in place.

Plan A was the PAC2 + MWC4 + 4 AAC schools. (Gets them to 10) And a really good media deal (maybe 15 mil)

Plans B&C was PAC2 + MWC4 + 2 AAC schools (still getting them to 8) (Media deal between 10-12)

Plan D was their doomsday scenario. Going back to the MWC and poaching USU and UNLV. USU had a single booster pay their exit fee. But UNLV stayed put. (Media deal now between 8 and maybe 10)

They never thought it would get past Plan D. So they are sitting at 7 teams needing to find an 8th that gets them #1 an actual conference and #2 brings enough to the table in terms of helping media deal. Because otherwise they are looking at a media while better than the MWC probably only 2/3's of what they thought they were going to get.

 

[SilverSpoon]

They had..

Plan A, B, C and D in place.

Plan A was the PAC2 + MWC4 + 4 AAC schools. (Gets them to 10) And a really good media deal (maybe 15 mil)

Plans B&C was PAC2 + MWC4 + 2 AAC schools (still getting them to 8) (Media deal between 10-12)

Plan D was their doomsday scenario. Going back to the MWC and poaching USU and UNLV. USU had a single booster pay their exit fee. But UNLV stayed put. (Media deal now between 8 and maybe 10)

They never thought it would get past Plan D. So they are sitting at 7 teams needing to find an 8th that gets them #1 an actual conference and #2 brings enough to the table in terms of helping media deal. Because otherwise they are looking at a media while better than the MWC probably only 2/3's of what they thought they were going to get.

You forgot about their plan E:

 

[Rebel1986]

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

You forgot about their plan E:

🙂

Honestly just speculation on my part but considering that the PAC has to have 8 full members by I think July of next year you would think they would want to get this wrapped up sooner than later to start on scheduling, rebranding, media push etc...

Maybe things are all going to plan, but it sure doesn't feel like it.

Octagon and their media partners are looking to get the best possible deal for all parties involved.

The problem for the PAC is that the most attractive targets (Memphis/Tulane etc) might be out of reach now. The West simply doesn't have a lot of viable options.

I'm not saying they couldn't circle back to Memphis and Tulane, but I have to think the AAC commissioner now that he knows Memphis and Tulane are prime targets, is doing everything possible to keep them. That means the price is going up. Plus the PAC needs one more. These schools know this and can wait the PAC out and continue to drive up the price. Almny school in the AAC will need to see significantly higher money in a media deal to compensate for travel.

Which comes back to more 'Western' teams like Texas State. They might be willing. Their TV deal isn't great. And even though it's a school with some upside in a solid market they aren't going to help a ton in boosting the PACs media deal value.

NMSU? The Las Cruces market isn't very big. Their athletics are ok. But again little value to a media deal. SAC State? Maybe I guess. Nice market potential, but I don't think the PAC wants to go FCS if they are truly trying to be recognized as a Pseudo 'Power' conference.

Do they circle back to UNLV? Possible I guess. I don't think UNLV budges though, unless it's for a full share and the PAC would have to present a solid valuation of what that would look like. UNLV will be getting about 5 million next contract plus around 1.5 on top of that if I'm understanding the deal they struck with the MWC. Plus the 10 million lump sum. Would a 10 million per year media rights deal make it worth it to join (provided that's the number)? I think they'd consider it. But they would likely lose the free pass to pursue a P4 conference. If the PAC comes with an invite and solid projections of close to 10 million a year and UNLV takes it, the P4 stipulation was lip service by UNLV and damage control. If they turn down 10 million a year, then the P4 stipulation and BIG12 might actually have some legs.

I don't know.

 

[RebelinWA]

🙂

Honestly just speculation on my part but considering that the PAC has to have 8 full members by I think July of next year you would think they would want to get this wrapped up sooner than later to start on scheduling, rebranding, media push etc...

Maybe things are all going to plan, but it sure doesn't feel like it.

Octagon and their media partners are looking to get the best possible deal for all parties involved.

The problem for the PAC is that the most attractive targets (Memphis/Tulane etc) might be out of reach now. The West simply doesn't have a lot of viable options.

I'm not saying they couldn't circle back to Memphis and Tulane, but I have to think the AAC commissioner now that he knows Memphis and Tulane are prime targets, is doing everything possible to keep them. That means the price is going up. Plus the PAC needs one more. These schools know this and can wait the PAC out and continue to drive up the price. Almny school in the AAC will need to see significantly higher money in a media deal to compensate for travel.

Which comes back to more 'Western' teams like Texas State. They might be willing. Their TV deal isn't great. And even though it's a school with some upside in a solid market they aren't going to help a ton in boosting the PACs media deal value.

NMSU? The Las Cruces market isn't very big. Their athletics are ok. But again little value to a media deal. SAC State? Maybe I guess. Nice market potential, but I don't think the PAC wants to go FCS if they are truly trying to be recognized as a Pseudo 'Power' conference.

Do they circle back to UNLV? Possible I guess. I don't think UNLV budges though, unless it's for a full share and the PAC would have to present a solid valuation of what that would look like. UNLV will be getting about 5 million next contract plus around 1.5 on top of that if I'm understanding the deal they struck with the MWC. Plus the 10 million lump sum. Would a 10 million per year media rights deal make it worth it to join (provided that's the number)? I think they'd consider it. But they would likely lose the free pass to pursue a P4 conference. If the PAC comes with an invite and solid projections of close to 10 million a year and UNLV takes it, the P4 stipulation was lip service by UNLV and damage control. If they turn down 10 million a year, then the P4 stipulation and BIG12 might actually have some legs.

I don't know.

Big12 is the dream.

If I m Harper, I don’t move unless the Pac buys the farm. Zero our outstanding debt, eat the exit fee, pay the attorneys, pay for the rebranding, and pay us to $10m year 1 and beyond. The Pac would need good numbers with actual verifiable metrics to backup the offer. In my opinion, an 8 figure number is exceedingly difficult in the configuration they have now + UNLV.

In this scenario. We definitely lose the P4 for free pass. They would make it super expensive for us to jump up.

In all reality with OSU and WSU hemorrhaging money; no media deal outside of P4 will ever be enough. Best case numbers with the AAC schools jumping, a reverse merger with the MW, or both will never get them to $20m+.

 

[SilverSpoon]

🙂

Honestly just speculation on my part but considering that the PAC has to have 8 full members by I think July of next year you would think they would want to get this wrapped up sooner than later to start on scheduling, rebranding, media push etc...

Maybe things are all going to plan, but it sure doesn't feel like it.

Octagon and their media partners are looking to get the best possible deal for all parties involved.

The problem for the PAC is that the most attractive targets (Memphis/Tulane etc) might be out of reach now. The West simply doesn't have a lot of viable options.

I'm not saying they couldn't circle back to Memphis and Tulane, but I have to think the AAC commissioner now that he knows Memphis and Tulane are prime targets, is doing everything possible to keep them. That means the price is going up. Plus the PAC needs one more. These schools know this and can wait the PAC out and continue to drive up the price. Almny school in the AAC will need to see significantly higher money in a media deal to compensate for travel.

Which comes back to more 'Western' teams like Texas State. They might be willing. Their TV deal isn't great. And even though it's a school with some upside in a solid market they aren't going to help a ton in boosting the PACs media deal value.

NMSU? The Las Cruces market isn't very big. Their athletics are ok. But again little value to a media deal. SAC State? Maybe I guess. Nice market potential, but I don't think the PAC wants to go FCS if they are truly trying to be recognized as a Pseudo 'Power' conference.

Do they circle back to UNLV? Possible I guess. I don't think UNLV budges though, unless it's for a full share and the PAC would have to present a solid valuation of what that would look like. UNLV will be getting about 5 million next contract plus around 1.5 on top of that if I'm understanding the deal they struck with the MWC. Plus the 10 million lump sum. Would a 10 million per year media rights deal make it worth it to join (provided that's the number)? I think they'd consider it. But they would likely lose the free pass to pursue a P4 conference. If the PAC comes with an invite and solid projections of close to 10 million a year and UNLV takes it, the P4 stipulation was lip service by UNLV and damage control. If they turn down 10 million a year, then the P4 stipulation and BIG12 might actually have some legs.

I don't know.

They may come out absolutely golden after all is said and done. But, one thing is for certain... they're going to be A LOT lighter in the pockets because of their ignorance in the beginning. And if they end up settling for a Texas State type school, now their much smaller media deal just got even smaller because of the Octagon fees and commissions.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

They may come out absolutely golden after all is said and done. But, one thing is for certain... they're going to be A LOT lighter in the pockets because of their ignorance in the beginning. And if they end up settling for a Texas State type school, now their much smaller media deal just got even smaller because of the Octagon fees and commissions.

That's how I see it.

Their 'metrics' may come back to bite them in the ass.

I have no inside info but I have a strong suspicion that OSU/WSU weren't necessarily the catalysts in all of this mess. I would not be shocked if Boise and SDSU who have been looking to get out of the MWC forever didn't approach OSU/WSU at the start.. PAC had the brand and the money to get it started.

What's so damn stupid about the whole thing it may end up costing them more in the end hiring a consulting firm, plus legal fees, plus anybody they go after like Memphis is going to drive up their price.

PAC could have simply blown up MWC from the start by inviting/including UNLV and USU. MWC would have been left with UNM, Reno, Hawaii, AFA, and San Jose State. At that point AFA almost certainly bounces to the AAC.

Now you're sitting with 3 full members and Hawaii.

Gloria would have zero leverage and really her only options would be to try and merge with CUSA. Or maybe try and merge with AAC somehow. But a rebuild of conference at that point seems unlikely.

PAC now sitting at 8 teams would already have a media rights evaluation And a full conference. They could then grab Gonzaga and St Mary's creating a really nice basketball conference to boot.

Who knows maybe they have it figured out and we're just wish casting their demise. But it would be hilarious if Octagon and their media partners tell them you need to circle back and consider a reverse merger.

 

[RebelinWA]

That's how I see it.

Their 'metrics' may come back to bite them in the ass.

I have no inside info but I have a strong suspicion that OSU/WSU weren't necessarily the catalysts in all of this mess. I would not be shocked if Boise and SDSU who have been looking to get out of the MWC forever didn't approach OSU/WSU at the start.. PAC had the brand and the money to get it started.

What's so damn stupid about the whole thing it may end up costing them more in the end hiring a consulting firm, plus legal fees, plus anybody they go after like Memphis is going to drive up their price.

PAC could have simply blown up MWC from the start by inviting/including UNLV and USU. MWC would have been left with UNM, Reno, Hawaii, AFA, and San Jose State. At that point AFA almost certainly bounces to the AAC.

Now you're sitting with 3 full members and Hawaii.

Gloria would have zero leverage and really her only options would be to try and merge with CUSA. Or maybe try and merge with AAC somehow. But a rebuild of conference at that point seems unlikely.

PAC now sitting at 8 teams would already have a media rights evaluation And a full conference. They could then grab Gonzaga and St Mary's creating a really nice basketball conference to boot.

Who knows maybe they have it figured out and we're just wish casting their demise. But it would be hilarious if Octagon and their media partners tell them you need to circle back and consider a reverse merger.

You would laugh if you knew how often companies hire high dollar consultants just for them to say what companies don’t want to hear.

 

[SilverSpoon]

That's how I see it.

Their 'metrics' may come back to bite them in the ass.

I have no inside info but I have a strong suspicion that OSU/WSU weren't necessarily the catalysts in all of this mess. I would not be shocked if Boise and SDSU who have been looking to get out of the MWC forever didn't approach OSU/WSU at the start.. PAC had the brand and the money to get it started.

What's so damn stupid about the whole thing it may end up costing them more in the end hiring a consulting firm, plus legal fees, plus anybody they go after like Memphis is going to drive up their price.

PAC could have simply blown up MWC from the start by inviting/including UNLV and USU. MWC would have been left with UNM, Reno, Hawaii, AFA, and San Jose State. At that point AFA almost certainly bounces to the AAC.

Now you're sitting with 3 full members and Hawaii.

Gloria would have zero leverage and really her only options would be to try and merge with CUSA. Or maybe try and merge with AAC somehow. But a rebuild of conference at that point seems unlikely.

PAC now sitting at 8 teams would already have a media rights evaluation And a full conference. They could then grab Gonzaga and St Mary's creating a really nice basketball conference to boot.

Who knows maybe they have it figured out and we're just wish casting their demise. But it would be hilarious if Octagon and their media partners tell them you need to circle back and consider a reverse merger.

I think you're right about Boise St and SDSU.

If Octagon end up suggesting to them a reverse merger as a best case scenario, Gloria should offer WSU and OSU a sweet UNLVesque package. Give them a free-pass to leave for a p4, cut their poaching fee in half, a larger cut of the media rights, and most importantly, leave STDSU, Boise St, and the Utah State Diddlers out to dry. CSU and Fresno would be given a 2nd chance with UTEP's similar package.

I can dream. It would definitely save the PAC2 a ton of money.

 

[unlove]

It would be great to see but more likely is Octagon recommends they make a hard press for UNLV to join. We really are the prime target out west and that’s not a rose-colored glasses perspective. Harp would be in the driver’s seat to negotiate a solid deal, like perhaps pay our MWC exit fee (whatever it’s negotiated to) and give us a free pass to an A4 for a period of time (say thru 2032) in exchange for a reduced cut of the annual pie during the term of the free pass. Then we still have our window to make the jump at the next (and likely final for some time) realignment, or stay in the strongest G5 if we’re passed over.

 

[unlove]

It would be great to see but more likely is Octagon recommends they make a hard press for UNLV to join. We really are the prime target out west and that’s not a rose-colored glasses perspective. Harp would be in the driver’s seat to negotiate a solid deal, like perhaps pay our MWC exit fee (whatever it’s negotiated to) and give us a free pass to an A4 for a period of time (say thru 2032) in exchange for a reduced cut of the annual pie during the term of the free pass. Then we still have our window to make the jump at the next (and likely final for some time) realignment, or stay in the strongest G5 if we’re passed over.

BTW, I have it on very good authority that SDSU was the mastermind behind the MWC breakup. Watch closely what happens when we play them. There may be a few extra personal fouls called that game on some reserve players who play a down or two.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

1

BTW, I have it on very good authority that SDSU was the mastermind behind the MWC breakup. Watch closely what happens when we play them. There may be a few extra personal fouls called that game on some reserve players who play a down or two.

SDSU and Boise..

Needed the PAC 2 for the money and branding to make it happen.

 

[dcut03]

The thing is...

Their media deal will be better. But it may not be what the MWC 4 were sold on.

And

OSU and WSU are use to operating 20+ mil from media rights.

If they land around 8-10 vs 12-15 that most definitely is an issue for them going forward.

Are they in 'trouble' no.

Is there possibly some second guessing and questions being raised about the direction this is going? I would say probably so.

They'll get to their 8 but the talk of them reclaiming their 'Power conference' status is probably nonsense at this point.

I don't blame Boise or SDSU that much. Sure they were probably playing devil's advocate.

I think the seemingly unnamed media partners (like CW + at least 1 other) really value the PAC 2 schools. Historical data is very strong for them with average viewership. I see see some execs really liking those numbers paired with some pretty good numbers the first week or two ( before the announcement) to full pull the trigger on announcing the new teams.

I do think that there is a pretty big gap between the top and the bottom of the MW in media value. When the PAC is used to over 30 mil a year in total media value, the prospect on 7 or 8 mil with a merger was probably pretty deflating. Long term cutting out the bottom (which would have been impossible with a merger) will pay off down the road.

I do think they oversold their brand, but deep down I don't think that they would have been able to pull off P5 status. Sure that is what they are trying to sell, but they are not that delusional.

I do think they did not expect that teams would demand help with exit fees. Which had them scrambling a bit more. Not sure if the poaching fee lawsuit was in the plans the whole time, or a knee jerk reaction as they realized that their warchest was been spent fast. Maybe they thought they had a good legal argument this whole time. That actually makes the most sense with starting their conference with 4 MW teams that have both exit and poaching fees.

There are also for sure a lot of stubborness and ego on both sides. Gloria played hardball with them, and they didn't like it. Gould seems to acting like she doesn't want to get fired and exaggerating her worth as well.

As for circling back and trying for UNLV? I just don't think they can swing that now. Not after the new deal. If we said no to 6 mil in exit fee help, they would have to pay the whole thing. And I don't know if there will be an increased penalty at this since we basically officially legally agreed that we will stay.

I will say this the base media contract of what the PAC will be vs the new MW will likely be double. I think their partners likely over value the PAC 2, and they took what they analyzed as four 4 best market + Utah State with is probably right in the middle. But it isn't on the PAC if they are overvalued with their media partners. They are getting that money either way. Cutting out all of our fat is going to make a big difference when compared side to side. It will also be a good chunk better per year than a merger would have been. The upfront costs are what are going dictate how much of a mistake this is going to be if at all. If the poaching fees get thrown out and the exit fees get negotiated down to the standard 50-65% then still not too bad.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

BTW, I have it on very good authority that SDSU was the mastermind behind the MWC breakup. Watch closely what happens when we play them. There may be a few extra personal fouls called that game on some reserve players who play a down or two.

I hope we take a nice big dump on their metrics. **** them to hell.

 

[RebelinWA]

I don't blame Boise or SDSU that much. Sure they were probably playing devil's advocate.

I think the seemingly unnamed media partners (like CW + at least 1 other) really value the PAC 2 schools. Historical data is very strong for them with average viewership. I see see some execs really liking those numbers paired with some pretty good numbers the first week or two ( before the announcement) to full pull the trigger on announcing the new teams.

I do think that there is a pretty big gap between the top and the bottom of the MW in media value. When the PAC is used to over 30 mil a year in total media value, the prospect on 7 or 8 mil with a merger was probably pretty deflating. Long term cutting out the bottom (which would have been impossible with a merger) will pay off down the road.

I do think they oversold their brand, but deep down I don't think that they would have been able to pull off P5 status. Sure that is what they are trying to sell, but they are not that delusional.

I do think they did not expect that teams would demand help with exit fees. Which had them scrambling a bit more. Not sure if the poaching fee lawsuit was in the plans the whole time, or a knee jerk reaction as they realized that their warchest was been spent fast. Maybe they thought they had a good legal argument this whole time. That actually makes the most sense with starting their conference with 4 MW teams that have both exit and poaching fees.

There are also for sure a lot of stubborness and ego on both sides. Gloria played hardball with them, and they didn't like it. Gould seems to acting like she doesn't want to get fired and exaggerating her worth as well.

As for circling back and trying for UNLV? I just don't think they can swing that now. Not after the new deal. If we said no to 6 mil in exit fee help, they would have to pay the whole thing. And I don't know if there will be an increased penalty at this since we basically officially legally agreed that we will stay.

I will say this the base media contract of what the PAC will be vs the new MW will likely be double. I think their partners likely over value the PAC 2, and they took what they analyzed as four 4 best market + Utah State with is probably right in the middle. But it isn't on the PAC if they are overvalued with their media partners. They are getting that money either way. Cutting out all of our fat is going to make a big difference when compared side to side. It will also be a good chunk better per year than a merger would have been. The upfront costs are what are going dictate how much of a mistake this is going to be if at all. If the poaching fees get thrown out and the exit fees get negotiated down to the standard 50-65% then still not too bad.

It wouldn’t have been the media who over valued the Pac. It would have been their other consultant company, Navigate. They pitched a 10 full time school conference deal based on hopes, prayers, and an internal self valuation.
As far as motivation, all of the schools that are leaving have much higher athletic debt than UNLV, and its not close.

Rank	School	Outstanding Athletics Debt 2022-23
1	San Diego State	$308,480,551
2	Colorado State	$225,120,000
3	Utah State	$44,499,045
4	Fresno State	$34,612,794
5	Boise State	$32,641,900
6	UNLV	$14,409,982
7	New Mexico	$12,995,803
8	Nevada	$9,173,000
9	Air Force	$5,809,775
10	Hawaii	$2,034,395
11	Wyoming	$0
12	San Jose State	$0
	Total	$689,777,245
	Average	$57,481,437

 

[Rebel1986]

The stupidity of the MWC was not to have put a huge penalty against SDSU if they tried to leave the conference again after letting them come back.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

@dcut03

Looking at time lines of how this all unfolded and based on comments from WYO AD this thing was being planned as far back as before MWC media days.

SDSU and Boise 'owe' the MWC nothing.

But they along with OSU and WSU vastly overestimated the value of the PAC brand.

Will PAC get a better media deal than the MWC? Yep. 3x as much? Like the 15 million they were floating? No. Not even close to that. They'llbe lucky to get 10 million.

Think of it this way. AAC got 9 million per school with a lineup of..

Houston, SMU, CINCY, Memphis, Tulane and USF. All sizeable TV markets. And this was when Cincy was was really really good and Houston was in the Tom Herman era winning 9+ games a year and SMU was getting things turned around.

I'm not sure the PACs lineup is all that much better than the AAC at that time.

Was a reverse merger in their best interest? Maybe maybe not.

But getting to 8 teams as soon as possible was definitely in their best interest. Had they included UNLV and USU in initial plans they'd be set and in a much stronger bargaining position.

Now everybody out there can wait them out for the best deal possible because the PAC needs to get an 8th member.

If they circle back to Memphis they are going to have to spend way more money than they had intended. Memphis and Tulane have them by the short hairs. PAC has to get a media deal that exceeds 9 million per school.

Not asking sarcastically but for Memphis and Tulane is anything short of 12 million per year enough to compensate for all the increased travel? I'm not sure that it is to be honest.

PAC will land on their feet but there is no way they anticipated being in the spot they are in right now.

 

[oneepstein]

I think people are overvaluing the “media value” of individual teams using traditional metrics. Are the brands of the teams in the new PAC better than the MW? Absolutely. But outside of the markets where those schools sit and any alumni based outside those markets, that’s kind of it.

That footprint itself has value, but are you really giving a shit about Boise vs StDSU at 10:00 pm on a Saturday night if you’re on the east coast?

Not unless you’re betting on it.

Team names matter less than they used to with the ability to bet on sports, and this has a huge impact on “value”.

Brands help from a marketing standpoint, but it’s definitely not the be all end all that it used to be. I’d argue that in a vacuum, UNLV vs Hawaii has as much value as Boise vs Utah State to a huge portion of the country… especially in September and October when there is less on the line.