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Next Year Thoughts

Anyone arguing that Jones deserves to stay has recency bias.. you guys realize our big averaged .5ppg outside 1 game vs SDSU where Jones got 5... that's both combined in conference play. I'm sorry, I don't need useless Bigs when my bench already has 3 useless guards. Going into next year, we need productive minutes from anyone coming off the bench. Jones isn't a project. If you want inconsistent play go get a project and hope at after 2 or 3 years he becomes efficient enough to give you 5 points regularly.
Also, I don't want to depend on Freshman starters. Getting 15 minutes off the bench that are productive is my goal. Since we went the portal route already, we need to put starters into those openings and let the freshman earn the minutes.
 
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Masked_rebel said:
Anyone arguing that Jones deserves to stay has recency bias.. you guys realize our big averaged .5ppg outside 1 game vs SDSU where Jones got 5... that's both combined in conference play. I'm sorry, I don't need useless Bigs when my bench already has 3 useless guards. Going into next year, we need productive minutes from anyone coming off the bench. Jones isn't a project. If you want inconsistent play go get a project and hope at after 2 or 3 years he becomes efficient enough to give you 5 points regularly.
Also, I don't want to depend on Freshman starters. Getting 15 minutes off the bench that are productive is my goal. Since we went the portal route already, we need to put starters into those openings and let the freshman earn the minutes.
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The funny thing about Jones is that his raw stats are not, as you pointed out, good at all. I think on the eye test he looks stiff and limited, but he also only played 109 minutes last year. However, if you look at the advanced metrics they sort of paint a picture where he might be worth getting more time:

PER - 4th on team
TS% - 1st on team
eFG% - 1st on team
FTr - 1st on team
ORB% - 1st on team
DRB% - 3rd on team
TRB% - 1st on team
Blk% - 1st on team
USG% - 13th on team
WS/40 - 3rd on team
DBPM - 1st on team
BPM - 6th on team
ORTG/100 - 1st on Team
DRTG/100 - 2nd on team

Sometimes a bench guy will be high in a few of those advanced metrics (Nick Walters is 2nd in ORTG/100 for example), but it's unusual to have them be so high across so many of them.

Now before anyone gets too excited or angry, I'm not trying to argue that he should be a high rotation guy, or that we couldn't find a player that we would get more development for down the road, but I think there's enough smoke there for him to at least get a few more minutes next year, but if he's much higher than the 9th or 10th guy in the rotation then you're probably asking for problems.
 
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Couev said:
The funny thing about Jones is that his raw stats are not, as you pointed out, good at all. I think on the eye test he looks stiff and limited, but he also only played 109 minutes last year. However, if you look at the advanced metrics they sort of paint a picture where he might be worth getting more time:

PER - 4th on team
TS% - 1st on team
eFG% - 1st on team
FTr - 1st on team
ORB% - 1st on team
DRB% - 3rd on team
TRB% - 1st on team
Blk% - 1st on team
USG% - 13th on team
WS/40 - 3rd on team
DBPM - 1st on team
BPM - 6th on team
ORTG/100 - 1st on Team
DRTG/100 - 2nd on team

Sometimes a bench guy will be high in a few of those advanced metrics (Nick Walters is 2nd in ORTG/100 for example), but it's unusual to have them be so high across so many of them.

Now before anyone gets too excited or angry, I'm not trying to argue that he should be a high rotation guy, or that we couldn't find a player that we would get more development for down the road, but I think there's enough smoke there for him to at least get a few more minutes next year, but if he's much higher than the 9th or 10th guy in the rotation then you're probably asking for problems.
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I was also looking at his per minute production. Especially when it came to rebounding. I couldn't figure if his decent numbers were because he was better than most thought or if the entire team was so awful he only excelled among lots of inferior rebounders.
 
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Take away his 15 minutes and stats vs Bethesda and then re-run the numbers...

Just saying he got 15 minutes vs Bethesda and went 8 and 7...

Against D-1 opponents he registered a basket every 5 games and his rebound # drop significantly. Again, that's why I don't think he's a project or a give him more minutes he'll increase productivity guy as a 9/10... I think we can get that from a freshman, why not try and fund a better rotation guy
 
WarthogRebel said:
I was also looking at his per minute production. Especially when it came to rebounding. I couldn't figure if his decent numbers were because he was better than most thought or if the entire team was so awful he only excelled among lots of inferior rebounders.
Click to expand...
Probably somewhere between.
 
Masked_rebel said:
Take away his 15 minutes and stats vs Bethesda and then re-run the numbers...

Just saying he got 15 minutes vs Bethesda and went 8 and 7...

Against D-1 opponents he registered a basket every 5 games and his rebound # drop significantly. Again, that's why I don't think he's a project or a give him more minutes he'll increase productivity guy as a 9/10... I think we can get that from a freshman, why not try and fund a better rotation guy
Click to expand...
I understand and appreciate your point and don't necessarily disagree with it, but you make a big mess when you start ruling out statistical analysis because they include outliers that don't agree with with your position. I know I post longwinded posts, but even I don't have time to try and remove a single game and recalculate the advanced metrics.

In general I'd rather play a freshman with upside than a senior who has some interesting advanced metrics, but I don't know that Kruger will have that same luxury. But, how they perform and work in practice and what they do with their time in the program and in games matters too. I think if you can recruit over Jones, you 100% should--but I'd rather focus on getting some other wing depth and another ball handler in recruiting and let N'Diaye, Jones, and (if he stays) Bannarbie compete for those back up 5 minutes (assuming Cherry does win the position).
 
Joel Anthony when he first arrived didn’t look much different than jones does now.
 
Couev said:
I understand and appreciate your point and don't necessarily disagree with it, but you make a big mess when you start ruling out statistical analysis because they include outliers that don't agree with with your position. I know I post longwinded posts, but even I don't have time to try and remove a single game and recalculate the advanced metrics.

In general I'd rather play a freshman with upside than a senior who has some interesting advanced metrics, but I don't know that Kruger will have that same luxury. But, how they perform and work in practice and what they do with their time in the program and in games matters too. I think if you can recruit over Jones, you 100% should--but I'd rather focus on getting some other wing depth and another ball handler in recruiting and let N'Diaye, Jones, and (if he stays) Bannarbie compete for those back up 5 minutes (assuming Cherry does win the position).
Click to expand...
I think we're saying same thing. I'd use Jones scholarship for an experienced wing/guard since our Bigs are pretty set for next year.
 
Jones is a senior playing 2 years of juco and 2 years at UNLV. I think he is done.
 
j. spilotro said:
Impact wise, you’re right.

But ability to move, not close. Ability to jump, rebound, not close.
Click to expand...
I still remember when LH told me they were red shirting Joel and he felt he could play in the NBA. I had my doubts at the time. But LH was right.
 
Masked_rebel said:
I think we're saying same thing. I'd use Jones scholarship for an experienced wing/guard since our Bigs are pretty set for next year.
Click to expand...
If my choices were Karl Jones, or a solid wing who could shoot or get buckets, then yes I'd agree with you. I don't think that those will be my only choices, and I also can't really predict if Karl Jones will want to play his covid year here, or if he'd prefer to go to a smaller conference where he could see meaningful minutes.

Edit - I think we're in 100% agreement now, thanks to @TimothyC3's homework, I don't believe he's got any eligibility to add any complications.
 
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TimothyC3 said:
Actually KJ was in juco 3 years. I have no clue how that works. Also, I do know he played at LA Southwest.

Karl Jones Player Profile, UNLV - RealGM

Get the latest news, stats and more about Karl Jones on RealGM.com
basketball.realgm.com
Click to expand...
I didn't think that he played at LASW at all, and that with covid exception you had 6 to play 5, but he could have no eligbilty left and I could just be wrong.
 
TimothyC3 said:
Actually KJ was in juco 3 years. I have no clue how that works. Also, I do know he played at LA Southwest. Next would be would be year 6.

Karl Jones Player Profile, UNLV - RealGM

Get the latest news, stats and more about Karl Jones on RealGM.com
basketball.realgm.com
Click to expand...
Turns out he started 29 games at LASW, so you're right, unless there's a medical redshirt I'm not seeing Mr. Jones is gone. Thanks for the correction my friend!
 
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Jones did just go through senior night, if he had eligibility or not that usually means he is done.

Even if eligible, I don't think we need another big. I think Cherry and Pape will be a good 1-2 punch, then I expect either Cottrell or Barnarbie to be around too, possibly both. I don't think it is a huge need.

I like Whaley and I think he is a sold choice at a starting 4 in this league. He is also a JUCO which often get a bump on their second year, though we may have saw that this season. There were games where he was the best player on the floor. He is very good at the low post and is really good at clearing space with his backside. Big Booty Bob knows how to use his body to his advantage. He could use more face up to his game other than trying to yoke it on everyone, though I do like his willingness to attack. His defense also improved greatly as the season went on. I totally think he could be a 11 and 6 guy as a starter all year next season.

Hill was honorable mention all Big 12 last season, dude can be player. I think he can fit into the LuRod role well if he recovers well enough from the injury. He is definitely a jack of all trades player, but can be a very good piece. I still think we need another wing defender and or shooter, but a healthy Hill could be a very good starter, IMO. Also technically he did start for a tournament team at OU 2 seasons ago.

As for pace? I think it is hard to say what CKK's preference is. I think we had to slow it down this season for a couple of reasons. Our bigs just cannot keep up with a fast pace AND play effective defense. Kalib surprisingly struggled to run, Cottrell the same though less surprising with his injury history. Whaley is getting into better shape, but tough for him to run consistently. Obviously the same goes for Karl who was the slowest of the bunch. Also we had to slow it down because DJ played 35 min a game.

Pape can run the floor, not sure if Cherry can at a good pace. I think pace could speed up next season, especially with a 2nd quality ball handler. But I don't think it is that big of deal. If we can cause fits defensively and win games at a slower pace I am all for it if it works.

Rebounding wasn't good, but I'm not sure if that is because we have poor rebounders or our defensive scheme. We switched a lot early in the year, and at the end of the year it was almost like a triangle and 2 because we collapsed the defense if there was any ball penetration near the basket. Also I think our bigs were just scrambling to box out and the wings were designed to clean up the boards. I would prefer more standard man to man and traditional rebounding. But I do think our rebounding margin #'s were somewhat skewed by a few very lopsided games. During conference play the differential was not that big.
 
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that is absurd . Maybe NIL 💰 is drying up? To think we are good with current roster? We need 2 impact players or at least better than both Boones and Rodriguez to improve on this year's results
 
As dependent meaning that they have 4 definite guys (DTJ, Whaley, Hicks, Hill)+ maybe Barnabie, plus 3 recruits, so they only need a few players vs 8 or 9 Portal guys.
 
rebel5280 said:
I don’t think Hill should be a starter, maybe a sixth man type because we need someone with much better skill at the 2-3 spots to flank DJ. We need two long and athletic type guys who can create space off the dribble and score at all 3 levels on the perimeter, in the paint and at the rim like that Ajayi kid at Pepperdine!
Click to expand...
Hill carried this team in the beginning of the year. He is a starter
 
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TimothyC3 said:
Trip, SDSU out rebounded UNLV 50-31. That’s why UNLV lost. Also, last I check for the year was 197th in the country in rebounding margin. Not good.
Click to expand...
SDSU out rebound almost everybody. and Boone did not play !
 
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rebelfan1969 said:
Hill carried this team in the beginning of the year. He is a starter
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I disagree!

He’s coming off an injury.. plus I don’t like starting Whaley and Hill, not enough athleticism. We need two guys who can create from the perimeter, mid range and at the hoop. Hill is a garbage man, just like Whaley!
 
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rebel5280 said:
I disagree!

He’s coming off an injury.. plus I don’t like starting Whaley and Hill, not enough athleticism. We need two guys who can create from the perimeter, mid range and at the hoop. Hill is a garbage man, just like Whaley!
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IDK, Whaley is a handful with his girth. He’s a mismatch for most 4s. If we have a center that is good enough that teams have to have a body on him, teller 4 will have to handle Whaley straight up which will typically benefit us. Add your perimeter guys and we have a potent offense.
 
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I still want change. DJ bailed us out into a lot of wins down the stretch. I just don't think CKK is the answer. This off-season is going to be critical moving forward under his regime. Is NIL money there? Who are we losing? Can he attract BETTER players knowing his time is almost up (possibly) . Can he run a better more attractive Offense? 4 the fans and players . CKK can coach defense , I just don't want to wait another few years to see if he can put it altogether. I just doesn't think he has the it factor I hope i'm wrong
 
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Rebel_Luv said:
I still want change. DJ bailed us out into a lot of wins down the stretch. I just don't think CKK is the answer. This off-season is going to be critical moving forward under his regime. Is NIL money there? Who are we losing? Can he attract BETTER players knowing his time is almost up (possibly) . Can he run a better more attractive Offense? 4 the fans and players . CKK can coach defense , I just don't want to wait another few years to see if he can put it altogether. I just doesn't think he has the it factor I hope i'm wrong
Click to expand...
To answer a few of your questions/comments..
I think the extended run in the NIT combined with the winning streak prior to Reno is enough for Harper to hold off any changes.
NIL money- Not sure thats really a necessity to attract "better" players.. We arent going to be able to compete in the NIL marketplace for the type of player you are thinking of. That doesnt mean we are going to be able to find good players. My hope is that we are getting the right type of player rather than Big 12 cast offs hoping they can step up into the MWC and be good.
More attractive offense... Dont hold your breath. Look who he learned from and that should pretty much answer your question. Lon ran some interesting sizes here and Kevin seems to have followed in that footstep. However, if our defensive efforts continue into next year and our offense continues to be efficient, that in itself is "attractive"
What we do need is to add a guard that can provide outside threats on a consistent basis which will allow DTJ to cut and kick or toss in to Whaley or the other Big and kick out. We need another ball handler that can run the floor when DTJ comes off. running him for 38 minutes a game next year is a recipe for disaster. Then we need pieces for the bench. Guys who can give you 5-8 points per game and if needed go off on any given matchup or night.
 
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Masked_rebel said:
To answer a few of your questions/comments..
I think the extended run in the NIT combined with the winning streak prior to Reno is enough for Harper to hold off any changes.
NIL money- Not sure thats really a necessity to attract "better" players.. We arent going to be able to compete in the NIL marketplace for the type of player you are thinking of. That doesnt mean we are going to be able to find good players. My hope is that we are getting the right type of player rather than Big 12 cast offs hoping they can step up into the MWC and be good.
More attractive offense... Dont hold your breath. Look who he learned from and that should pretty much answer your question. Lon ran some interesting sizes here and Kevin seems to have followed in that footstep. However, if our defensive efforts continue into next year and our offense continues to be efficient, that in itself is "attractive"
What we do need is to add a guard that can provide outside threats on a consistent basis which will allow DTJ to cut and kick or toss in to Whaley or the other Big and kick out. We need another ball handler that can run the floor when DTJ comes off. running him for 38 minutes a game next year is a recipe for disaster. Then we need pieces for the bench. Guys who can give you 5-8 points per game and if needed go off on any given matchup or night.
Click to expand...
I would add a 3 who can both shoot and drive to the basket. Especially if Whaley is our 4 we will need a 3 who can shoot the 3 well.
 
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Masked_rebel said:
To answer a few of your questions/comments..
I think the extended run in the NIT combined with the winning streak prior to Reno is enough for Harper to hold off any changes.
NIL money- Not sure thats really a necessity to attract "better" players.. We arent going to be able to compete in the NIL marketplace for the type of player you are thinking of. That doesnt mean we are going to be able to find good players. My hope is that we are getting the right type of player rather than Big 12 cast offs hoping they can step up into the MWC and be good.
More attractive offense... Dont hold your breath. Look who he learned from and that should pretty much answer your question. Lon ran some interesting sizes here and Kevin seems to have followed in that footstep. However, if our defensive efforts continue into next year and our offense continues to be efficient, that in itself is "attractive"
What we do need is to add a guard that can provide outside threats on a consistent basis which will allow DTJ to cut and kick or toss in to Whaley or the other Big and kick out. We need another ball handler that can run the floor when DTJ comes off. running him for 38 minutes a game next year is a recipe for disaster. Then we need pieces for the bench. Guys who can give you 5-8 points per game and if needed go off on any given matchup or night.
Click to expand...
We need more than one guy, we need to flank DJ with two guys who can create off the dribble!
unlove said:
I would add a 3 who can both shoot and drive to the basket. Especially if Whaley is our 4 we will need a 3 who can shoot the 3 well.
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Agreed!
 
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I am curious to see what Jacob Barnnabie brings to the team after sitting out as a red shirt freshmen and time in the weight room. He is 6’9” and very mobile. What I like about him and this is a need. UNLV has to improve on the boards and Jacob has a motor.

High School scouting report.

 
TimothyC3 said:
I am curious to see what Jacob Barnnabie brings to the team after sitting out as a red shirt freshmen and time in the weight room. He is 6’9” and very mobile. What I like about him and this is a need. UNLV has to improve on the boards and Jacob has a motor.

High School scouting report.

View embedded media
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I keep forgetting about this guy.
Is he practicing?
How does he look in practice?
 
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I know Evans could be nice suprise next yr.
Whaley would be better if we had shooters to open up the court for him to work.
Hill will be good 12-7 if he's healthy.
Backup PG, 2 SG and another SF/PF, need a big who can face badket and hit from 15, but most important guys who can handle the ball and create and shoot to help thomas
 
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TimothyC3 said:
I am curious to see what Jacob Barnnabie brings to the team after sitting out as a red shirt freshmen and time in the weight room. He is 6’9” and very mobile. What I like about him and this is a need. UNLV has to improve on the boards and Jacob has a motor.

High School scouting report.

View embedded media
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Time in the weight room ?

Im not aware of a training program with these Rebels ? This has to be the Skinniest collection of Rebels I've ever seen

Skinny and injury prone
 
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rebelwithacause said:
Time in the weight room ?

Im not aware of a training program with these Rebels ? This has to be the Skinniest collection of Rebels I've ever seen

Skinny and injury prone
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I wrote about the conditioning way before the season started. They need a new conditioning coach or preferably a new head coach. KK's obvious inability to recruit Power Forwards was on display all season. The whole MWC was exposed as being weak up the middle. Boone twins were SF's and even though they could play great defense there was no bench to back them up.
 
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