MWC games tonight

[Rebel1986]

UNLV came back to win in OT, now we wait to see how the rest of the games go. It could get even messier after tonight.

Current:

Utah State 51 Fresno State 51
Nevada 42 Colorado State 34
San Jose State 15 SDSU 13
Boise St. 79 Air Force 48 Win

 

[Rebel1986]

Utah State stayed in first with an OT win over FSU.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Crazy ending for unr/Colorado state

 

[Masked_rebel]

This entire conference is a house of frauds... Utah St. Shouldn't have won, CSU has lost 4 of 5, UNR escaped vs us and then got a miracle vs CSU... Boise isn't as good as they get credit for and SDSU is hot and cold...

 

[LocoRebel]

This entire conference is a house of frauds... Utah St. Shouldn't have won, CSU has lost 4 of 5, UNR escaped vs us and then got a miracle vs CSU... Boise isn't as good as they get credit for and SDSU is hot and cold...

I tend to agree. There are no really good teams- just some fine or slightly better.

 

[Rebel77fl2]

I don’t disagree but what does this stat say.

Quad 1 wind OOC - top 7 MWC - 7
Quad 1 wins OOC - top 7 SEC teams - 5 (Tenn has 2)
Quad 1 wins OOC - top 7 PAC 12 teams - 5 (Arizona has 4)

Used top 7 from conference standings. We see these teams every year and know their flaws and can easily down play them.

Current consensus is SEC has 7 teams in, MWC has 6, PAC-12 has 2.

Do I think the MWC should get 6 teams in, no and I think it will be closer to 4 at the end. CSU will have tough time to get an at large finishing seventh. Boise has a very tough schedule left with UNM, UNR and @SDSU. UNR is bubble right now and will need to at least split against us and Boise to have a shot with Boise counting more. Utah State and SDSU are probably locks based on current ranking and remaining schedule. UNM needs a win at Utah State or Boise to feel good and for sure can’t lose to FSU, UNM has by far the worst OOC of any of these teams. Considering 4 of these teams are going to lose first round of the MWC tournament, I think the best MWC gets is 5 with a bubble team winning the tournament or 4 without that

As for UNLV, I am in the camp the only path to a bid is winning the tourney. Winning 5 and then losing still puts us on the wrong side.

 

[dcut03]

I don’t disagree but what does this stat say.

Quad 1 wind OOC - top 7 MWC - 7
Quad 1 wins OOC - top 7 SEC teams - 5 (Tenn has 2)
Quad 1 wins OOC - top 7 PAC 12 teams - 5 (Arizona has 4)

Used top 7 from conference standings. We see these teams every year and know their flaws and can easily down play them.

Current consensus is SEC has 7 teams in, MWC has 6, PAC-12 has 2.

Do I think the MWC should get 6 teams in, no and I think it will be closer to 4 at the end. CSU will have tough time to get an at large finishing seventh. Boise has a very tough schedule left with UNM, UNR and @SDSU. UNR is bubble right now and will need to at least split against us and Boise to have a shot with Boise counting more. Utah State and SDSU are probably locks based on current ranking and remaining schedule. UNM needs a win at Utah State or Boise to feel good and for sure can’t lose to FSU, UNM has by far the worst OOC of any of these teams. Considering 4 of these teams are going to lose first round of the MWC tournament, I think the best MWC gets is 5 with a bubble team winning the tournament or 4 without that

As for UNLV, I am in the camp the only path to a bid is winning the tourney. Winning 5 and then losing still puts us on the wrong side.

UNLV is currently 5-3 against quad 1. Best % in the conference i believe. 2 more quad 1 games left in the regular season. They could be as high as 9-4 if they win out and lose in the MWCT.

That is an elite record for quad 1. Very few teams would be able to claim that.

The NET rankings are barely moving these days. However, if UNLV can get under 70, all of our games for our opponents would be elevated a quadrant, which I think we cause a shelf effect with a bit of a boost to our NET, as well as some of our opponents.

Last year Rutgers got in with a 77 NET. UNLV could be a very good case study. I think we are at least in the conversation

Finishing with the scenario I mentioned above will be very tough, and it would be foolish to predict that actually happening. But it isn't far fetched. We can hang with pretty much anyone in this conference ( SDSU TBD). So it is possible.

Of course it would be a very nerve racking selection Sunday if we finished like that, so a MWCT win is the only safe path to the tournament now. I do think it is possible for an at large, but a lot of things would likely have to go our way.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Lol... If we were in a position to get an at large discussing Q-1 record would matter, but the basically having the entire top half of conference counting as a Q1 win is a bit hilarious. Outside USU and SDSU the other 4 teams are good teams but I don't see Q1 to level of the way other major conferences compare. I get "net" and all the other rankings go into what equals what but purely eye testing the conference as a whole doesn't add up to a stat we should be holding out there as "look at us"... but we aren't, we are a bid stealing team that needs to win the conference tournament. It shows that we are competitive in conference, which gives you hope for winning the tournament but that should be all.

 

[dcut03]

Lol... If we were in a position to get an at large discussing Q-1 record would matter, but the basically having the entire top half of conference counting as a Q1 win is a bit hilarious. Outside USU and SDSU the other 4 teams are good teams but I don't see Q1 to level of the way other major conferences compare. I get "net" and all the other rankings go into what equals what but purely eye testing the conference as a whole doesn't add up to a stat we should be holding out there as "look at us"... but we aren't, we are a bid stealing team that needs to win the conference tournament. It shows that we are competitive in conference, which gives you hope for winning the tournament but that should be all.

The MW stacked up pretty well in OOC this year.
In conference we have beat each other up, but so are the top conferences.
Eye ball test, college basketball is all over the place in every conference. The product in general is down. There are some teams that are just humming, Houston being one of them, but many teams have struggled here and there.
Do I think the MW is full of Sweet 16 teams? No. But I think there are legit tournament teams. I think most are round of 32 worthy (tops) with a couple having a chance at the second weekend.

The NET has been kind to the MW over the past 3 years. I would agree it has overrated us within that time.

But at the same time, I don't think there are that many teams playing at a cut above where the MW is right now.