Estimate for MWC media deal

[Bullmastiff 1]

Yes please. FYI, Highlights from a long interview a couple days ago with WSU's AD, included:

• Budgeting for 105 FB schollies (complete turnaround for the now-seeming dubious report about dropping them to 79
• An alleged $1M enhancement for assistant salaries. Of which so far all of whom are from FCS
• Expansion talks are NOT being pursued until the Pac gets their media deal. Apparently the Pac was waiting for all the Pac and future Pac Bowl victories, especially BSU's tear through the playoffs, to get the media salivating

And to another post, WSU has not cut their athletics budget in half. FY 2025's went from $80-some million to $74M.

Report about cutting scholarships was dubious.

The cutting of the athletic budget can be viewed as couple ways.

1- WSU is in serious debt and this was just fiscal responsibility on their part

2-WSU is preparing for life in the G5 with smaller media deal and accounting for the in incoming reduction in media funds.

Either way it's smart on their part vs continuing to increase their debt and being forced to make more drastic cuts.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Report about cutting scholarships was dubious.

The cutting of the athletic budget can be viewed as couple ways.

1- WSU is in serious debt and this was just fiscal responsibility on their part

2-WSU is preparing for life in the G5 with smaller media deal and accounting for the in incoming reduction in media funds.

Either way it's smart on their part vs continuing to increase their debt and being forced to make more drastic cuts.

Agree on all counts - and I only mentioned the budget cut because a poster up the thread stated that we cut it in half. Gotta keep it accurate for you drunken, gambling whore-mongers.

 

[WarthogRebel]

Agree on all counts - and I only mentioned the budget cut because a poster up the thread stated that we cut it in half. Gotta keep it accurate for you drunken, gambling whore-mongers.

I take offense. We can hold our liquor.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

I take offense. We can hold our liquor.

OK, drinking not drunken. It's the wrong metric anyway.......

 

[dcut03]

What I understood was that the exit fees from the traitors would cover our "signing bonus" for staying in the MW. It doesn't have anything to do with the next media deal. Payment to us was in two parts. An initial amount which is about 50% of the total signing bonus would be paid in 2025. The other 50% would be paid during the next media contract "cycle" of 6 years. That isn't tied to the next media contract it's just when it will be paid to us. The true dollar amount of the signing bonus is going to be decided in the courts with the exit fee lawsuits filed.

The "poaching fees" would have been evenly divided by each remaining school in the conference except maybe Hawaii as they weren't full members. But, I'm not sure about Hawaii.

With the lawsuits we won't know until then how much money we will actually get. If it isn't enough with what the MW was promising then we may be headed to the Pac. Honestly, I don't know what we would do.

This is true. None of the MOA money amounts are guaranteed. They were all estimates.
The first lump sum was based off of poaching fees, just because I believe that without any lawsuit, that money was collectible early. The rest of the money is likely Exit fees because those are not collected until after those schools officially play their last game for the conference. Those fees can be a lump sum or paid over time.
The total fees to be collected on paper is "around" 155 mil. the maximum amount that with be paid for the retention bonus was about 110, with UNLV getting "up to" 24.8 mil. So it looks like that the MW was budgeting for at least some room for the negotiations. They also had to have a bit of an acquisition budget too.
Remember all of these numbers were released before any lawsuit. They were never set in stone, but at least the total value is threatened now. Also, this was before Hawaii was made a full member, I am not sure if they are getting a bigger bonus for staying as a part of the deal, I remember they were at least fighting for that.
The MW is not swimming in cash, 100% of the extra money will come from fees, so we don't know what we really will get until everything is settled. We may not get that lump sum until later, and at Harper's post season press conference, it sounded like he was not counting on any money until at least 2026.

 

[dcut03]

The best case that would have gotten us closer to 7m would have been adding Niu and Toledo as football only and on a partial share.

UTEP has a lot of potential, they just need to win.

UC Davis was an interesting choice. They have a small but expandable stadium, if they decide to bring up their football. They just finished their own $50m football facility 2 years ago.

UC Davis also has a large alumni base that is 3x larger than Boise and double of UNLV’s. In fact, they would be second to only Sdsu in alumni size compared to everyone in the new pac.

UC Davis has some potential, but just because they are a large school doesn't mean they will ever care about athletics.
Their brand currently is very poor. There is no tradition, no previous excitement, etc. Northern California does not seem to be a great college football area. Cal and Stanford have fleeting fanbases and they are the big ones. SJSU has been extremely poor and UCDavis and Sac State seem to be making a push, but historically there has been little excitement. Hopefully them being "upgraded" will spark some excitement like what seems to be happening at UTEP. Having a large fanbase is great, but they have to care about their sports teams. There is zero indication that they actually do.

 

[RebelinWA]

UC Davis has some potential, but just because they are a large school doesn't mean they will ever care about athletics.
Their brand currently is very poor. There is no tradition, no previous excitement, etc. Northern California does not seem to be a great college football area. Cal and Stanford have fleeting fanbases and they are the big ones. SJSU has been extremely poor and UCDavis and Sac State seem to be making a push, but historically there has been little excitement. Hopefully them being "upgraded" will spark some excitement like what seems to be happening at UTEP. Having a large fanbase is great, but they have to care about their sports teams. There is zero indication that they actually do.

I don’t know about the state of their basketball, but their football stadium has been sold out all of this season. Granted, its a very small stadium, but they’ve been competitive in their league with a 11-3 record. They even have an upset over Hauck’s normally dominant Montana team.

I should note that I’m not suggesting their football is ready to be elevated. Fan bases absolutely matter. Though, the reality is most fans regardless of school are fair weather.

 

[dcut03]

Exactly this.

In all of the “arguments” we’ve had on here surrounding UNLVs decision, both sides are factoring in assumptions of unknowns and “ifs”.

There’s just way too much we don’t know and way too much to still play out. We may never know the full truth about the why.

I personally don’t believe UNLV REALLY had any option.

If you put both options/offers on paper, there were WAY more unknowns by going to the new PAC and WAY more “knowns” by staying in the MW. The “gamble” wasn’t staying, it was joining the PAC.

I think there is a fair share of unknowns both ways.

The factor that is often missed is if UNLV excepted the invite then that is a really solid conference. Payouts would have probably been pretty good. Unsure if they still go for Utah State if we said yes, but it is safe to say they would have eventually and they didn't balk at the offer.

UNLV didn't know the poaching fees would be aggressively contested, they should have known that the exit fees would be.

The weird part of all of this is that the estimated payouts have likely changed since. UNLV's value probably went up a couple of pegs,

Exit fees are the only up front cost for UNLV, and it was reported that the PAC was offering 6 mil in help. That is not bad at all.

Sure having up to 14 mill up front, vs facing some level of exit fee does create a potential issue. But the way these are negotiated and often paid off over time, it is very possible that UNLV would making more per year with paying off their fee included on the ledger. No money up front though.

I think UNLV could afford to jump. It isn't that daunting of an ask. The MW wasn't that much safer. Sure it was more likely to actually become a conference, but the type of payouts was very much an unknown.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

UC Davis has some potential, but just because they are a large school doesn't mean they will ever care about athletics.
Their brand currently is very poor. There is no tradition, no previous excitement, etc. Northern California does not seem to be a great college football area. Cal and Stanford have fleeting fanbases and they are the big ones. SJSU has been extremely poor and UCDavis and Sac State seem to be making a push, but historically there has been little excitement. Hopefully them being "upgraded" will spark some excitement like what seems to be happening at UTEP. Having a large fanbase is great, but they have to care about their sports teams. There is zero indication that they actually do.

Based on what the UC Davis Chancellor said in accepting the offer to join the MW I have to think they do want to get more exposure in athletics. If they didn't care why would they join. If it works out for them that they can get that part of CA excited it would pay off for us having them in the 20th largest media market (Sacramento). It's not happening overnight I wouldn't be so bold as to say otherwise. But, if it happens down the road then we, the MWC, would be better with them.

This is what their Chancellor said in accepting the offer:

UC Davis Chancellor Gary S. May. “Our transition to the highly regarded conference will introduce our Aggie community to a broader audience, in major metropolitan areas and through increased media coverage. It also provides us with an opportunity to align with universities that share similar academic strengths while also expanding our competitive presence in the Western United States.”

 

[RebelinWA]

I think there is a fair share of unknowns both ways.

The factor that is often missed is if UNLV excepted the invite then that is a really solid conference. Payouts would have probably been pretty good. Unsure if they still go for Utah State if we said yes, but it is safe to say they would have eventually and they didn't balk at the offer.

UNLV didn't know the poaching fees would be aggressively contested, they should have known that the exit fees would be.

The weird part of all of this is that the estimated payouts have likely changed since. UNLV's value probably went up a couple of pegs,

Exit fees are the only up front cost for UNLV, and it was reported that the PAC was offering 6 mil in help. That is not bad at all.

Sure having up to 14 mill up front, vs facing some level of exit fee does create a potential issue. But the way these are negotiated and often paid off over time, it is very possible that UNLV would making more per year with paying off their fee included on the ledger. No money up front though.

I think UNLV could afford to jump. It isn't that daunting of an ask. The MW wasn't that much safer. Sure it was more likely to actually become a conference, but the type of payouts was very much an unknown.

Utah State jumping created as much of a problem for the MW as UNLV not jumping did for the Pac. Wish we could see what would have happened if both decided to be in one or the other. I don't think anyone in the pac thought that UNLV would say no.

 

[dcut03]

Based on what the UC Davis Chancellor said in accepting the offer to join the MW I have to think they do want to get more exposure in athletics. If they didn't care why would they join. If it works out for them that they can get that part of CA excited it would pay off for us having them in the 20th largest media market (Sacramento). It's not happening overnight I wouldn't be so bold as to say otherwise. But, if it happens down the road then we, the MWC, would be better with them.

This is what their Chancellor said in accepting the offer:

UC Davis Chancellor Gary S. May. “Our transition to the highly regarded conference will introduce our Aggie community to a broader audience, in major metropolitan areas and through increased media coverage. It also provides us with an opportunity to align with universities that share similar academic strengths while also expanding our competitive presence in the Western United States.”

Why would they join? Easy, they are going to get a much better media deal. Why would we ask them to join is the question.
It may be a bit of a "prove it" deal. It does seem like the majority of the moves the MW are for the future. Unfortunately "potential" only pays so much. These contracts are agreed to up front, unless we are breaking the mold with a profit sharing model.
UTEP and GCU also have better potential than value today.

 

[WarthogRebel]

Utah State jumping created as much of a problem for the MW as UNLV not jumping did for the Pac. Wish we could see what would have happened if both decided to be in one or the other. I don't think anyone in the pac thought that UNLV would say no.

Do we know UNLV was invited?

 

[dcut03]

Do we know UNLV was invited?

Yes, the PAC officially invited UNLV after the AAC schools said no. Harper confirmed it, and even mentioned that the PAC offered 6 mil in exit fee help.

 

[WYNN or Dye]

If, you got 50 minutes. Comprehensive, discussion on the MWC/Pac media values.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

If, you got 50 minutes. Comprehensive, discussion on the MWC/Pac media values.

View embedded media

Watched the entire show. Almost fell asleep once.

Here is my half awake opinion on what I heard.

The hot topic for us would be media valuation. Remember, these guys know about as much as what is going to happen as the rest of us. The main take from both of the guys was that fans are going to be disappointed from both conferences regards media revenue. Some on here have been saying that specifically regarding the Pac. One guy was thinking the Pac could get something from 8-10 million and the MW getting as much as 7 million which later he revised that amount to just saying 4-6 million. Numbers being pulled out of their ass as they really are just guessing.

They got into who we may be partnering with regards to media companies and who the pac may be partnering with.

One guy was thinking we are not done expanding and there may be a possibility of one more for football addition in the MW. The same guy even said he has a good idea who the 8th team is for the pac. Although, like most of these guys they aren't going to say who. It's click bait to me to get you to keep coming back and watch their show.

 

[WYNN or Dye]

Watched the entire show. Almost fell asleep once.

Here is my half awake opinion on what I heard.

The hot topic for us would be media valuation. Remember, these guys know about as much as what is going to happen as the rest of us. The main take from both of the guys was that fans are going to be disappointed from both conferences regards media revenue. Some on here have been saying that specifically regarding the Pac. One guy was thinking the Pac could get something from 8-10 million and the MW getting as much as 7 million which later he revised that amount to just saying 4-6 million. Numbers being pulled out of their ass as they really are just guessing.

They got into who we may be partnering with regards to media companies and who the pac may be partnering with.

One guy was thinking we are not done expanding and there may be a possibility of one more for football addition in the MW. The same guy even said he has a good idea who the 8th team is for the pac. Although, like most of these guys they aren't going to say who. It's click bait to me to get you to keep coming back and watch their show.

The one guy, JT. The one to the left, wearing an Air Force t-shirt.
Doesn't, even have a UNLV shirt. You know, the flagship program of the new Mountain West.
So, I can't really take these guys that serious. Plus, they live in the East Coast and not in any MWC state.
They, are guessing on the number of how much the MW will get as far as the media values will go to.
I am thinking, 5 to 7 million dollars.

 

[dcut03]

Watched the entire show. Almost fell asleep once.

Here is my half awake opinion on what I heard.

The hot topic for us would be media valuation. Remember, these guys know about as much as what is going to happen as the rest of us. The main take from both of the guys was that fans are going to be disappointed from both conferences regards media revenue. Some on here have been saying that specifically regarding the Pac. One guy was thinking the Pac could get something from 8-10 million and the MW getting as much as 7 million which later he revised that amount to just saying 4-6 million. Numbers being pulled out of their ass as they really are just guessing.

They got into who we may be partnering with regards to media companies and who the pac may be partnering with.

One guy was thinking we are not done expanding and there may be a possibility of one more for football addition in the MW. The same guy even said he has a good idea who the 8th team is for the pac. Although, like most of these guys they aren't going to say who. It's click bait to me to get you to keep coming back and watch their show.

Truth we won't know until these things are officially announced.
A conference is as valuable as what their media partners are willing to pay. We have our guesses, we have to read between the lines, etc etc.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

The one guy, JT. The one to the left, wearing an Air Force t-shirt.
Doesn't, even have a UNLV shirt. You know, the flagship program of the new Mountain West.
So, I can't really take these guys that serious. Plus, they live in the East Coast and not in any MWC state.
They, are guessing on the number of how much the MW will get as far as the media values will go to.
I am thinking, 5 to 7 million dollars.

I think they get 5-6.

PAC gets 8-10.

Boise is pissed. Since it's only a million more than they are getting now.

 

[RebelinWA]

I think they get 5-6.

PAC gets 8-10.

Boise is pissed. Since it's only a million more than they are getting now.

Worst case on that low number, Boise only gets 100k more. That’ll make me smile.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Yes, the PAC officially invited UNLV after the AAC schools said no. Harper confirmed it, and even mentioned that the PAC offered 6 mil in exit fee help.

What? I have never seen this reported. Who is Harper?

 

[dcut03]

What? I have never seen this reported. Who is Harper?

Harper is our AD

How UNLV became the unlikely center of the college football universe

Amid conference realignment chatter and a player leaving because of an NIL dispute, UNLV was the unlikely center of the college football universe.

www.espn.com

 

[dcut03]

I think they get 5-6.

PAC gets 8-10.

Boise is pissed. Since it's only a million more than they are getting now.

I think it fully depends on the 8th member.

But they took our 4 or 5 best markets, and left all of the bad ones.

Every school we added is at or below our current Mean value in my estimation.

Currently their least valuable school, USU would be our mean more or less.

I think they get 10 easy if we truly are getting 6.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Harper is our AD

How UNLV became the unlikely center of the college football universe

Amid conference realignment chatter and a player leaving because of an NIL dispute, UNLV was the unlikely center of the college football universe.

www.espn.com

Thanks for the link. Apparently I missed the wrinkle of the alleged Pac offer and accompanying $6M. 3 months ago!

That said, wouldya couldya reconsider now? The Pac is pretty much f-ed. Bet they (we) would agree to just about anything.

 

[LVRebel2000]

Thanks for the link. Apparently I missed the wrinkle of the alleged Pac offer and accompanying $6M. 3 months ago!

That said, wouldya couldya reconsider now? The Pac is pretty much f-ed. Bet they (we) would agree to just about anything.

Sure, here's the terms. You pay the full exit fee for UNLV and guarantee a minimum of $10 million per year in media money.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Sure, here's the terms. You pay the full exit fee for UNLV and guarantee a minimum of $10 million per year in media money.

AND no exit fee if a P4 sends an invite.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Worst case on that low number, Boise only gets 100k more. That’ll make me smile.

Except in their minds they are getting an extra 3 million a year plus for making the CFP and keeping 50% of those credits...

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Sure, here's the terms. You pay the full exit fee for UNLV and guarantee a minimum of $10 million per year in media money.

AND no exit fee if a P4 sends an invite.

Ok and OK. But in return we trade coaching staffs.

On my board they are canonizing our new FCS HC (he of 2 whole years as a HC) and drooling over our new assistants. Even though WSU is supposedly (direct from our AD's mouth) increasing our assistant pool from $3.6M to 4.5M, of our 6 asst. hires so far, 5 are from FCS and one from NAIA. And their sum total of FBS coaching experience is -0-.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

Ok and OK. But in return we trade coaching staffs.

On my board they are canonizing our new FCS HC (he of 2 whole years as a HC) and drooling over our new assistants. Even though WSU is supposedly (direct from our AD's mouth) increasing our assistant pool from $3.6M to 4.5M, of our 6 asst. hires so far, 5 are from FCS and one from NAIA. And their sum total of FBS coaching experience is -0-.

We've tried our hand with the FCS route and even tried our hand with a high school coach backed up by veteran FBS coordinators. Experimenting hasn't turned out too well for us. I'm sure you guys will have better luck.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Ok and OK. But in return we trade coaching staffs.

On my board they are canonizing our new FCS HC (he of 2 whole years as a HC) and drooling over our new assistants. Even though WSU is supposedly (direct from our AD's mouth) increasing our assistant pool from $3.6M to 4.5M, of our 6 asst. hires so far, 5 are from FCS and one from NAIA. And their sum total of FBS coaching experience is -0-.

I think Eck was the better hire by UNM. Eck revitalized a floundering Idaho program. You're guy took over the reigns of a team that was rolling.

This smells a lot like UNLV Bobby Hauck hire.

 

[dcut03]

Ok and OK. But in return we trade coaching staffs.

On my board they are canonizing our new FCS HC (he of 2 whole years as a HC) and drooling over our new assistants. Even though WSU is supposedly (direct from our AD's mouth) increasing our assistant pool from $3.6M to 4.5M, of our 6 asst. hires so far, 5 are from FCS and one from NAIA. And their sum total of FBS coaching experience is -0-.

Hey Spencer Danielson was mostly an assistant under the worst coach in recent memory at Boise. A defensive assistant for a defensive minded head coach. He turned out very good.

You are new around here, but according to Rebel Net, because 1 out of 300 coaches is able to do it, it means that ANYONE can/should do it and you should expect nothing less than playoffs next season.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Hey Spencer Danielson was mostly an assistant under the worst coach in recent memory at Boise. A defensive assistant for a defensive minded head coach. He turned out very good.

You are new around here, but according to Rebel Net, because 1 out of 300 coaches is able to do it, it means that ANYONE can/should do it and you should expect nothing less than playoffs next season.

Especially with all that Rose Bowl money the Beaver fans keep waiving around in peoples faces... 50 million should be able to buy you a playoff team...

 

[Rebel1986]

I think it fully depends on the 8th member.

But they took our 4 or 5 best markets, and left all of the bad ones.

Every school we added is at or below our current Mean value in my estimation.

Currently their least valuable school, USU would be our mean more or less.

I think they get 10 easy if we truly are getting 6.

Not sure I agree. I would put Hawaii and Air Force up with any of the markets they took from the MWC. Air Force has there military tie in that always makes their games popular, and Hawaii has a good following with the islands and the Polynesian community.

Currently CSU is a poor step child of Colorado; SDSU had crowds between 18K and 25K with the one big exception being 31K at the Hawaii game, and they have never had any real media following being the poor step child to nearby USC and UCLA; Utah State will always be a far third to both Utah and byu; Fresno State has really good attendance to their games, but has never been able to move forward because Fresno is a very poor farming community and they just do not have the money for NIL and will likely continue along their existing path.

BSU is the exception to that with a program that is popular and has done well for decades.

Oregon State and Washington State couldn't get anyone to take them and are trying to hold on in relevance by going for what they perceive is the cream of the crop with the MWC, but screwed up in not going after Air Force and UNLV instead of settling for Utah State.

If the PAC is able to hit a home run and get a school like Memphis, then that may change my opinion, but for now, I think they screwed up playing a game of checkers when I hope UNLV is play chess!

As of Tuesday there should be an official approval by the NIU board to join the MWC, now the question is can they get a second team to join from that area or Texas to help increase the footprint and put the conference to an even 10 teams? The NIU win over Fresno State in the bowl game that was in the backyard of Fresno also doesn't hurt the overall perception of the MWC. The future PAC was 0-3 in bowl games and the future MWC was 2-1.

 

[dcut03]

Not sure I agree. I would put Hawaii and Air Force up with any of the markets they took from the MWC. Air Force has there military tie in that always makes their games popular, and Hawaii has a good following with the islands and the Polynesian community.

Currently CSU is a poor step child of Colorado; SDSU had crowds between 18K and 25K with the one big exception being 31K at the Hawaii game, and they have never had any real media following being the poor step child to nearby USC and UCLA; Utah State will always be a far third to both Utah and byu; Fresno State has really good attendance to their games, but has never been able to move forward because Fresno is a very poor farming community and they just do not have the money for NIL and will likely continue along their existing path.

BSU is the exception to that with a program that is popular and has done well for decades.

Oregon State and Washington State couldn't get anyone to take them and are trying to hold on in relevance by going for what they perceive is the cream of the crop with the MWC, but screwed up in not going after Air Force and UNLV instead of settling for Utah State.

If the PAC is able to hit a home run and get a school like Memphis, then that may change my opinion, but for now, I think they screwed up playing a game of checkers when I hope UNLV is play chess!

SDSU AVERAGES 25k the past 2 seasons, probably their worst 2 seasons in recent memory. We got that last season in our second best season in recent memory.

I honestly don't know how to measure AFA. You could be right, but I do think their attendance is goosed by a LOT of non paying cadets going to the games. They do have a bit of a national brand, but I think they are a distant 3rd amongst the military academies in terms of popularity/following. Even though they have been the better football program of the 3 most seasons.

SDSU easily has better media value than AFA, Same with Fresno, CSU? Harder to say, but both in basically the same market, and I think CSU easily beats them at least locally. Nationally? Mayeb AFA is better?

About a year ago WAZZU and OSU was a part of a 10 team conference that was offered 30 mil per school (without USC/UCLA). They were on the low end of that spectrum obviously, but how much are they worth? But just because they weren't worth 30-80 mil a year for a different P4, doesn't mean they are only worth 5 mil or less. They could be worth 10, 15, or 20 each and still be left behind. I think their partners really like them, which is what matters. They have historical data at least to back that up.

No question the PAC screwed up. But I think they truly went by what their media partners said. I don't think that we were blackballed by anyone. I mean really, you are going to let some petty BS hold you back from creating a solid conference that makes everyone's bottom line look good, especially when they are scrounging for an 8th?

No, I think they truly followed their metrics from what their media partners were willing to pay. I truly think they picked the 4 best in their eyes, tried to keep the poaching fees down by stopping at 4 and "shooting for the stars" AAC 4, then came back around to us as an option B.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

We've tried our hand with the FCS route and even tried our hand with a high school coach backed up by veteran FBS coordinators. Experimenting hasn't turned out too well for us. I'm sure you guys will have better luck.

Hey Spencer Danielson was mostly an assistant under the worst coach in recent memory at Boise. A defensive assistant for a defensive minded head coach. He turned out very good.

You are new around here, but according to Rebel Net, because 1 out of 300 coaches is able to do it, it means that ANYONE can/should do it and you should expect nothing less than playoffs next season.

I come over here for tender comfort and support and all I get is ridicule and snide remarks. You guys are mean!

 

[1Tripoda]

I come over here for tender comfort and support and all I get is ridicule and snide remarks. You guys are mean!

Time to change allegiance.

 

[Masked_rebel]

I come over here for tender comfort and support and all I get is ridicule and snide remarks. You guys are mean!

Its basketball season... were alot nicer now during football.

 

[Rebel1986]

SDSU AVERAGES 25k the past 2 seasons, probably their worst 2 seasons in recent memory. We got that last season in our second best season in recent memory.

I honestly don't know how to measure AFA. You could be right, but I do think their attendance is goosed by a LOT of non paying cadets going to the games. They do have a bit of a national brand, but I think they are a distant 3rd amongst the military academies in terms of popularity/following. Even though they have been the better football program of the 3 most seasons.

SDSU easily has better media value than AFA, Same with Fresno, CSU? Harder to say, but both in basically the same market, and I think CSU easily beats them at least locally. Nationally? Mayeb AFA is better?

About a year ago WAZZU and OSU was a part of a 10 team conference that was offered 30 mil per school (without USC/UCLA). They were on the low end of that spectrum obviously, but how much are they worth? But just because they weren't worth 30-80 mil a year for a different P4, doesn't mean they are only worth 5 mil or less. They could be worth 10, 15, or 20 each and still be left behind. I think their partners really like them, which is what matters. They have historical data at least to back that up.

No question the PAC screwed up. But I think they truly went by what their media partners said. I don't think that we were blackballed by anyone. I mean really, you are going to let some petty BS hold you back from creating a solid conference that makes everyone's bottom line look good, especially when they are scrounging for an 8th?

No, I think they truly followed their metrics from what their media partners were willing to pay. I truly think they picked the 4 best in their eyes, tried to keep the poaching fees down by stopping at 4 and "shooting for the stars" AAC 4, then came back around to us as an option B.

AFA - AFA averaged around 30K per game based on 2023 numbers. The total number of students is 4K in total, which means they most likely have the highest percentage of paid attendance at around 90% of all the MWC/PAC teams. I grew up on Air Force military bases, and the Air Force academy has a national/international following that is most likely better than any teams in the current MWC outside of Boise State. Many of those who are in the military tend to adopt their academy team as either secondary football team to follow, or their primary if they have not followed any other team.

SDSU If you look at the attendance numbers dropping, you are correct that the last two years have been their worst in recent history, but there are several reasons for this happening. First Rocky Long was the head coach until 2019 which is when the program started to suffer and dropped from being in the low 30's to the current numbers, it should also be noted that the numbers have been dropping for most of the last decade from a high of over 40K back in 2011. Second when the team moved into Snapdragon Stadium in 2022 that cause two problems, the first being the size of the stadium being limited to 35K which prevents that past games against teams like UCLA from helping out overall attendance, the second the weather. An issue that has dropped the attendance from around 29K for the first season at Snapdragon stadium opened to under 25K in 2024 is the hot weather at the beginning of the football season as well as the winds that sometimes hit the stadium. There were a lot of complaints regarding the weather which helped to lower attendance by an average of around 4K+ over the last two seasons.

As for their media partner liking them, until we actually see numbers, we don't know if their partner like them, and in fact they do not even have enough teams to qualify as a conference until they pick up another team.

 

[dcut03]

AFA - AFA averaged around 30K per game based on 2023 numbers. The total number of students is 4K in total, which means they most likely have the highest percentage of paid attendance at around 90% of all the MWC/PAC teams. I grew up on Air Force military bases, and the Air Force academy has a national/international following that is most likely better than any teams in the current MWC outside of Boise State. Many of those who are in the military tend to adopt their academy team as either secondary football team to follow, or their primary if they have not followed any other team.

SDSU If you look at the attendance numbers dropping, you are correct that the last two years have been their worst in recent history, but there are several reasons for this happening. First Rocky Long was the head coach until 2019 which is when the program started to suffer and dropped from being in the low 30's to the current numbers, it should also be noted that the numbers have been dropping for most of the last decade from a high of over 40K back in 2011. Second when the team moved into Snapdragon Stadium in 2022 that cause two problems, the first being the size of the stadium being limited to 35K which prevents that past games against teams like UCLA from helping out overall attendance, the second the weather. An issue that has dropped the attendance from around 29K for the first season at Snapdragon stadium opened to under 25K in 2024 is the hot weather at the beginning of the football season as well as the winds that sometimes hit the stadium. There were a lot of complaints regarding the weather which helped to lower attendance by an average of around 4K+ over the last two seasons.

As for their media partner liking them, until we actually see numbers, we don't know if their partner like them, and in fact they do not even have enough teams to qualify as a conference until they pick up another team.

We not to stop looking at conspiracy theories and accept some facts.

It is more likely that one or two schools were able to sabotage UNLV (and AFA), keeping them out of the initial group due to spite, preventing them from creating the best and most profitable conference as possible, convincing both the PAC 2 who are diving the bus AND their media partners to do this.

OR

We weren't in their top 4, just like they said.

Money is what drives realignment, nearly 100%. It doesn't make sense that anyone trying to make the most money avoid adding schools that will make them the most money, due to some silly pettiness. It is in everyone's best interest to build a new conference with the best markets, media value, and to a slightly lesser extent, the best performing teams. Media partners want to make money, conferences want to maximize payouts

We weren't blackballed. At the time, we were probably a bit more risky with only 1 good football season under our belts and somewhat underwhelming numbers given our market size and success. The "metrics" were what they were. If they were to do it now, would it be different? Most likely, but even so, we have a pretty small sample size of success. It's one thing to have decent to good crowds when you are good, another when you are mediocre to bad ( all things the top 4 have been able to show btw).

 

[RebelinWA]

We not to stop looking at conspiracy theories and accept some facts.

It is more likely that one or two schools were able to sabotage UNLV (and AFA), keeping them out of the initial group due to spite, preventing them from creating the best and most profitable conference as possible, convincing both the PAC 2 who are diving the bus AND their media partners to do this.

OR

We weren't in their top 4, just like they said.

Money is what drives realignment, nearly 100%. It doesn't make sense that anyone trying to make the most money avoid adding schools that will make them the most money, due to some silly pettiness. It is in everyone's best interest to build a new conference with the best markets, media value, and to a slightly lesser extent, the best performing teams. Media partners want to make money, conferences want to maximize payouts

We weren't blackballed. At the time, we were probably a bit more risky with only 1 good football season under our belts and somewhat underwhelming numbers given our market size and success. The "metrics" were what they were. If they were to do it now, would it be different? Most likely, but even so, we have a pretty small sample size of success. It's one thing to have decent to good crowds when you are good, another when you are mediocre to bad ( all things the top 4 have been able to show btw).

Its a little of column A and column B, except it wasn’t necessarily media who was driving this. I’d pin most of the driving on Gould and their private consultants.

Politics impact realignment. Professional work relationships impact direction as much as media and conference leadership.

You can see this with UNLV taking a stand with AFA. UNLV’s CFO spent 25 years in the Air Force, including time at the AFA. Relationships matter. As much as we hate them as fans, professional relationships with BYU might be key to giving us a shot with the big12.

Why didn’t Hawaii take the Pac deal? Either they knew it was a bad deal for them, or the liked the people in one room more than the other. Could have been both.

 

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Its a little of column A and column B, except it wasn’t necessarily media who was driving this. I’d pin most of the driving on Gould and their private consultants.

Politics impact realignment. Professional work relationships impact direction as much as media and conference leadership.

You can see this with UNLV taking a stand with AFA. UNLV’s CFO spent 25 years in the Air Force, including time at the AFA. Relationships matter. As much as we hate them as fans, professional relationships with BYU might be key to giving us a shot with the big12.

Why didn’t Hawaii take the Pac deal? Either they knew it was a bad deal for them, or the liked the people in one room more than the other. Could have been both.

Was Hawaii offered? If so it was never officially reported.

Yeah relationships matter, relationships with money.

Most of the PAC left to destroy longstanding relationships and history, to to purposefully put them at travel disadvantages so they could make 20-50 mil more in new conferences.

It was reported from the beginning that the PAC was being driven by their media partners on this move. Hence "the metrics". That wasn't coming from Gould, that was coming from their partners.