Estimate for MWC media deal

[Boston Rebel 2]

We not to stop looking at conspiracy theories and accept some facts.

It is more likely that one or two schools were able to sabotage UNLV (and AFA), keeping them out of the initial group due to spite, preventing them from creating the best and most profitable conference as possible, convincing both the PAC 2 who are diving the bus AND their media partners to do this.

OR

We weren't in their top 4, just like they said.

Money is what drives realignment, nearly 100%. It doesn't make sense that anyone trying to make the most money avoid adding schools that will make them the most money, due to some silly pettiness. It is in everyone's best interest to build a new conference with the best markets, media value, and to a slightly lesser extent, the best performing teams. Media partners want to make money, conferences want to maximize payouts

We weren't blackballed. At the time, we were probably a bit more risky with only 1 good football season under our belts and somewhat underwhelming numbers given our market size and success. The "metrics" were what they were. If they were to do it now, would it be different? Most likely, but even so, we have a pretty small sample size of success. It's one thing to have decent to good crowds when you are good, another when you are mediocre to bad ( all things the top 4 have been able to show btw).

SDSU hasn't had good metrics the last few seasons either. Metrics come and go. The smart move would have been to merge the PAC and enough teams to vote to dissolve the MWC. That was the smartest and most obvious move. Why it didn't happen who knows but I vote stupidity. The PAC President has shown a whole lot of that.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

SDSU hasn't had good metrics the last few seasons either. Metrics come and go. The smart move would have been to merge the PAC and enough teams to vote to dissolve the MWC. That was the smartest and most obvious move. Why it didn't happen who knows but I vote stupidity. The PAC President has shown a whole lot of that.

Teresa Gould was hired after the big breakup of the Pac. The ones driving the short yellow bus were wsu and osu presidents. The wsu president Shulz is on his way out and has been for a year or more. I don't think he cares much. To me it was osu president murthy (sp) influenced by their delusional fan base that hated the idea of merging with the MW. Murthy I think got with the suds president and probably started the MW breakup. Those are two snakes we don't want to be a part of imo.

 

[oneepstein]

I think there is a fair share of unknowns both ways.

The factor that is often missed is if UNLV excepted the invite then that is a really solid conference. Payouts would have probably been pretty good. Unsure if they still go for Utah State if we said yes, but it is safe to say they would have eventually and they didn't balk at the offer.

UNLV didn't know the poaching fees would be aggressively contested, they should have known that the exit fees would be.

The weird part of all of this is that the estimated payouts have likely changed since. UNLV's value probably went up a couple of pegs,

Exit fees are the only up front cost for UNLV, and it was reported that the PAC was offering 6 mil in help. That is not bad at all.

Sure having up to 14 mill up front, vs facing some level of exit fee does create a potential issue. But the way these are negotiated and often paid off over time, it is very possible that UNLV would making more per year with paying off their fee included on the ledger. No money up front though.

I think UNLV could afford to jump. It isn't that daunting of an ask. The MW wasn't that much safer. Sure it was more likely to actually become a conference, but the type of payouts was very much an unknown.

Yes, unknowns on both sides for sure…

On the one hand with going to the PAC:

You know it’s going to be a better conference and you can reasonably surmise your media payments will be higher. How much higher is unknown, so now you have to speculate about that AND sell it to the powers that be who hold your job in hand.

You also don’t know what it’s going to cost you yet. You could argue that you’ll get the exit fees negotiated down, etc (to your same bosses), but you just don’t know and you HAVE to present a number that a prudent person would believe, because that’s what you’re supposed to be, prudent. $9 million is half, but I don’t think that’s a legitimate number to present. $12 million seems a reasonable number to present to the powers that be… if it ultimately ends up being a difference of a million or two in either direction nobody would fault you as AD for using that as a basis.

Now you can add back the money that was supposedly offered from the PAC 2 + the obvious advantage presented in joining an obviously better conference and you can make a very prudent case for joining the PAC.

One other downfall in this scenario is that you are absolutely hobbling in to this new conference with both hands tied behind your back because of the price you’ve paid. You almost certainly wouldn’t be hiring Dan Mullen after Odom left, which was a near certainty.

Then there’s staying in the MW:

Once UNLV got the bonus money offer from the MW the game changed. If not for that I believe that UNLV easily would have and should have paid whatever they had to and joined the PAC, there really would have been no choice.

UNLV is SUPPOSED to get between $19 mil to $25 mil over the course of 7 years, with a huge chunk coming at the beginning of year 1. Add to that what it DOES’NT cost you to leave ($9-12$ million) and we’re talking a $28 mil to $37 mil difference.

That also doesn’t include the financial hit you’d take if your football team took a step back competitively because you could no longer afford to make the investment in it.

Even if EVERYTHING got cut in half… exit fees and bonus payments… $9 million in exit fees + $12 million in bonus payments - $6 million in assistance from the PAC = $15 million difference in the two scenarios.

Add to that the free pass to leave to a P4 (who knows what that is worth).

So yes, there are plenty of unknowns on both sides, but all of them have a speculative range that you can use to make a prudent calculation.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

SDSU hasn't had good metrics the last few seasons either. Metrics come and go. The smart move would have been to merge the PAC and enough teams to vote to dissolve the MWC. That was the smartest and most obvious move. Why it didn't happen who knows but I vote stupidity. The PAC President has shown a whole lot of that.

Teresa Gould was hired after the big breakup of the Pac. The ones driving the short yellow bus were wsu and osu presidents. The wsu president Shulz is on his way out and has been for a year or more. I don't think he cares much. To me it was osu president murthy (sp) influenced by their delusional fan base that hated the idea of merging with the MW. Murthy I think got with the suds president and probably started the MW breakup. Those are two snakes we don't want to be a part of imo.

Agree with pretty much all of the above. Correction - Teresa Gould was the #2 in the Pac-2 offices before being promoted. The farther we go the more obvious it is that we should have done the reverse merger from Day 1. We could be playing an Alaska Air PacMtn Conference schedule next year in all sports. Instead we have a frequent flyer FB schedule, and a HS Gym league BB schedule where we can qualify for the title but get no NCAA money even if we earn it. For 2 years.

The Pac is "in no hurry" to find its 8th team, waiting for the media deal to come to fruition. Per our AD the other day. You have to be F-ing kidding me. We have not only painted ourselves into a corner, but we have poured the bucket of paint onto our head.

I think this NIU addition is kind of dumb, frankly. You aren't going to draw shit for NIU vs pretty much anybody. Yeah they rose up and beat ND. So what. The Pac, on the other hand, is going to have to get some no-name directional Texas school(s) that nobody gives a shit about. Nor will watch. Even Memphis and/or Tulane. Who f-ing cares about either of them? I'll take AF, Wyoming and UNLV any day of the week. So what if Reno NM and SJSU are dragging along behind. Throw 'em a few scraps and an occasional TV appearance on the BFE Channel (about like now) and they will be content.

But I obsess. Guess I'll go back to my Board and see what FCS coach or players we have brought in so far today. 14 players from SDSU and counting.

 

[RebelinWA]

Compiled list of data for MW/Pac.

NCAA Revenue Sharing estimates 2025-26 *	Annual Revenue	22% of Revenue (shared)		Collective Funding *2023-2024		Ticket Sales	Contributions
Air Force *	n/a	n/a		None		n/a	n/a
Oregon State	62,557,861	13,762,729		$3,163,423		9,447,886	9,800,013
Washington State	59,390,920	13,066,002		$3,216,991		9,299,636	10,274,202
UNLV	29,750,807	6,545,178		$2,772,864		7,034,986	9,836,550
Boise State	24,372,780	5,362,012		$2,765,657		7,226,105	9,601,581
Fresno State	23,992,615	5,278,375		$2,102,800		5,914,738	6,879,783
Colorado State	22,041,323	4,849,091		$2,586,300		4,742,234	10,994,149
reno	19,890,559	4,375,923		$2,000,558		7,325,678	4,846,753
New Mexico	19,941,247	4,387,074		$1,776,472		4,510,754	6,298,218
Wyoming	18,676,631	4,108,859		$2,426,393		4,084,611	10,678,818
San Diego State	17,693,647	3,892,602		$4,158,476		5,624,459	19,677,856
Hawaii	15,608,789	3,433,934		$1,051,850		1,950,230	4,449,768
Utah State	12,336,573	2,714,046		$1,511,795		2,718,827	6,479,715
San Jose State	9,924,753	2,183,446		$1,001,536		608,561	5,485,303

Notes:

1. Before you read too much into the OSU/WSU numbers, remember that they're paying themselves an inflated share right now. As a safe bet, decrease those revenue numbers $30m+ to cover adjusted conference payouts.

2. UNLV's collective funding has "about doubled". That number is closer to if not higher than $5m.

3. This does not track increases in other schools collective funding.

4. The 22% of revenue shared will be the estimated payout for athletes (note this encompasses multiple sports).

Source: https://nil-ncaa.com/

 

[dcut03]

Yes, unknowns on both sides for sure…

On the one hand with going to the PAC:

You know it’s going to be a better conference and you can reasonably surmise your media payments will be higher. How much higher is unknown, so now you have to speculate about that AND sell it to the powers that be who hold your job in hand.

You also don’t know what it’s going to cost you yet. You could argue that you’ll get the exit fees negotiated down, etc (to your same bosses), but you just don’t know and you HAVE to present a number that a prudent person would believe, because that’s what you’re supposed to be, prudent. $9 million is half, but I don’t think that’s a legitimate number to present. $12 million seems a reasonable number to present to the powers that be… if it ultimately ends up being a difference of a million or two in either direction nobody would fault you as AD for using that as a basis.

Now you can add back the money that was supposedly offered from the PAC 2 + the obvious advantage presented in joining an obviously better conference and you can make a very prudent case for joining the PAC.

One other downfall in this scenario is that you are absolutely hobbling in to this new conference with both hands tied behind your back because of the price you’ve paid. You almost certainly wouldn’t be hiring Dan Mullen after Odom left, which was a near certainty.

Then there’s staying in the MW:

Once UNLV got the bonus money offer from the MW the game changed. If not for that I believe that UNLV easily would have and should have paid whatever they had to and joined the PAC, there really would have been no choice.

UNLV is SUPPOSED to get between $19 mil to $25 mil over the course of 7 years, with a huge chunk coming at the beginning of year 1. Add to that what it DOES’NT cost you to leave ($9-12$ million) and we’re talking a $28 mil to $37 mil difference.

That also doesn’t include the financial hit you’d take if your football team took a step back competitively because you could no longer afford to make the investment in it.

Even if EVERYTHING got cut in half… exit fees and bonus payments… $9 million in exit fees + $12 million in bonus payments - $6 million in assistance from the PAC = $15 million difference in the two scenarios.

Add to that the free pass to leave to a P4 (who knows what that is worth).

So yes, there are plenty of unknowns on both sides, but all of them have a speculative range that you can use to make a prudent calculation.

Good points here.

A couple of things though, I don't think it would have affected the Mullen hire. Let's just say that his contract may not have used any of the funds heading our way to finance it, meaning that it was done with nearly all outside help. It is no secret that Harper said he will be looking for outside help for the Odom extension, and by extension Mullen. Which is the smart thing, because none of that money is guaranteed. And 14 mil of that is tied to poaching fees that could be thrown out entirely.

Where it could be more of a factor is a new Basketball coach. I think it will be harder to get outside money for that, just because the fan support has been so low.

As for estimating exit fees, who knows how to look at that. Truth is the MW's fees are so high compared to the national average. They are basically 3 times the best media year, when the standard rate has been 2 years of the base rate (with a 2 year warning).

The recent 4 departures from the AAC settled for 2 years of the base media value.

The pac 12's fees were less than 1/2 of one year media value, and THAT number got reduced to 65%

When OU and Texas left the Big 12, they were on the hook for 160 mil or 80 mil a piece which I believe 2 years of their media revenue or pretty close to it, it was agreed at 100 mil, which is 62.5% of their fees.

If you look at the distribution, it looks like the MW was expecting a reduction of exit fees to 11 mil per school or less. Which would be the remaining base media value per school ( not counting the bonuses that Boise received). 55 mil in poaching + 55 mil in exit fees ( 5 x 11) = the total MAX distribution for the MOR of 110 mil.

I think a maximum of 11 mil per school is somewhat safe, since it certainly seems that what the MW was expecting/budgeting using their own numbers of distribution.

Throw in the 6 mil of help from the PAC, 5 mil or less isn't too bad. Paying 5 vs getting 14 is a 19 mil swing for sure up front. Assuming the poaching fees hold up in full (which I pretty much am). The rest of the payment is somewhat neglible. I think it is safe to say that the PAC will get more than 1.8 mil above what the MW will get.

So breaking even on your investment to the PAC won't take very long. It could be in the first year. Making up the 14 mil? That could take a few years more, but the point where total money made in the PAC breaks even and then surpassed could be pretty soon.

We may need that money now to fire and hire a basketball coach.

 

[RebelinWA]

Agree with pretty much all of the above. Correction - Teresa Gould was the #2 in the Pac-2 offices before being promoted. The farther we go the more obvious it is that we should have done the reverse merger from Day 1. We could be playing an Alaska Air PacMtn Conference schedule next year in all sports. Instead we have a frequent flyer FB schedule, and a HS Gym league BB schedule where we can qualify for the title but get no NCAA money even if we earn it. For 2 years.

The Pac is "in no hurry" to find its 8th team, waiting for the media deal to come to fruition. Per our AD the other day. You have to be F-ing kidding me. We have not only painted ourselves into a corner, but we have poured the bucket of paint onto our head.

I think this NIU addition is kind of dumb, frankly. You aren't going to draw shit for NIU vs pretty much anybody. Yeah they rose up and beat ND. So what. The Pac, on the other hand, is going to have to get some no-name directional Texas school(s) that nobody gives a shit about. Nor will watch. Even Memphis and/or Tulane. Who f-ing cares about either of them? I'll take AF, Wyoming and UNLV any day of the week. So what if Reno NM and SJSU are dragging along behind. Throw 'em a few scraps and an occasional YV appearance on the BFE Channel (about like now) and they will be content.

But I obsess. Guess I'll go back to my Board and see what FCS coach or players we have brought in so far today. 14 players from SDSU and counting.

Funny they're going with "waiting" for media deal since that's what got you all into that corner to begin with.

 

[1Tripoda]

I didnt realise that the PAC2 are keeping all former teams revenues from the bowls and CFP? So, Oregon's $50millions payout all belong to the PAC2?

 

[oneepstein]

Good points here.

A couple of things though, I don't think it would have affected the Mullen hire. Let's just say that his contract may not have used any of the funds heading our way to finance it, meaning that it was done with nearly all outside help. It is no secret that Harper said he will be looking for outside help for the Odom extension, and by extension Mullen. Which is the smart thing, because none of that money is guaranteed. And 14 mil of that is tied to poaching fees that could be thrown out entirely.

Where it could be more of a factor is a new Basketball coach. I think it will be harder to get outside money for that, just because the fan support has been so low.

As for estimating exit fees, who knows how to look at that. Truth is the MW's fees are so high compared to the national average. They are basically 3 times the best media year, when the standard rate has been 2 years of the base rate (with a 2 year warning).

The recent 4 departures from the AAC settled for 2 years of the base media value.

The pac 12's fees were less than 1/2 of one year media value, and THAT number got reduced to 65%

When OU and Texas left the Big 12, they were on the hook for 160 mil or 80 mil a piece which I believe 2 years of their media revenue or pretty close to it, it was agreed at 100 mil, which is 62.5% of their fees.

If you look at the distribution, it looks like the MW was expecting a reduction of exit fees to 11 mil per school or less. Which would be the remaining base media value per school ( not counting the bonuses that Boise received). 55 mil in poaching + 55 mil in exit fees ( 5 x 11) = the total MAX distribution for the MOR of 110 mil.

I think a maximum of 11 mil per school is somewhat safe, since it certainly seems that what the MW was expecting/budgeting using their own numbers of distribution.

Throw in the 6 mil of help from the PAC, 5 mil or less isn't too bad. Paying 5 vs getting 14 is a 19 mil swing for sure up front. Assuming the poaching fees hold up in full (which I pretty much am). The rest of the payment is somewhat neglible. I think it is safe to say that the PAC will get more than 1.8 mil above what the MW will get.

So breaking even on your investment to the PAC won't take very long. It could be in the first year. Making up the 14 mil? That could take a few years more, but the point where total money made in the PAC breaks even and then surpassed could be pretty soon.

We may need that money now to fire and hire a basketball coach.

You could be right about external money being there for Mullen… so MAYBE you can exclude the downside on that aspect, though there was no hard cost associated with it.

But I’m not sure where you come up with “getting $14 million vs paying $5million” and having it be a $19 million swing…

I know where you’re getting the $5million, but you’re basing that on a starting number of $16 million per school. Everything I’ve read has that number as $18 million. If as you say (and I think that’s safe) the number in the MOU is based on $11 million per school then that cost is $7 million and not $5 million. Not a monster difference, but a difference nonetheless.

But the $14 million?

If as you say, the poaching fees hold up, and the exit fees get negotiated down to $11 million per school, then you’re at $110 million…

Per the MOU here are the distributions and their order:

1st $61 million - UNLV gets 24.5%=$14,950,000
Next $18 million conference “recruiting reserve”
Next $21 million- UNLV gets 24.5% =$5,145,000
(Pretty sure that’s where the annual payments of $1.5-$1.8 come in)

There’s $100 million.

After that the MW pays legal fees, then any remaining funds get split with all members at 16% and Hawaii gets 6%.

So right there you’ve got $20million + the $11million settled exit fee - $6million in assistance from the PAC and you’re at a $25 million swing.

That’s $4million per year over the course of any new 6 year deal you might get with the PAC and as of right now I don’t think they’re gonna get that.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

Compiled list of data for MW/Pac.

NCAA Revenue Sharing estimates 2025-26 *	Annual Revenue	22% of Revenue (shared)		Collective Funding *2023-2024		Ticket Sales	Contributions
Air Force *	n/a	n/a		None		n/a	n/a
Oregon State	62,557,861	13,762,729		$3,163,423		9,447,886	9,800,013
Washington State	59,390,920	13,066,002		$3,216,991		9,299,636	10,274,202
UNLV	29,750,807	6,545,178		$2,772,864		7,034,986	9,836,550
Boise State	24,372,780	5,362,012		$2,765,657		7,226,105	9,601,581
Fresno State	23,992,615	5,278,375		$2,102,800		5,914,738	6,879,783
Colorado State	22,041,323	4,849,091		$2,586,300		4,742,234	10,994,149
reno	19,890,559	4,375,923		$2,000,558		7,325,678	4,846,753
New Mexico	19,941,247	4,387,074		$1,776,472		4,510,754	6,298,218
Wyoming	18,676,631	4,108,859		$2,426,393		4,084,611	10,678,818
San Diego State	17,693,647	3,892,602		$4,158,476		5,624,459	19,677,856
Hawaii	15,608,789	3,433,934		$1,051,850		1,950,230	4,449,768
Utah State	12,336,573	2,714,046		$1,511,795		2,718,827	6,479,715
San Jose State	9,924,753	2,183,446		$1,001,536		608,561	5,485,303

Notes:

1. Before you read too much into the OSU/WSU numbers, remember that they're paying themselves an inflated share right now. As a safe bet, decrease those revenue numbers $30m+ to cover adjusted conference payouts.

2. UNLV's collective funding has "about doubled". That number is closer to if not higher than $5m.

3. This does not track increases in other schools collective funding.

4. The 22% of revenue shared will be the estimated payout for athletes (note this encompasses multiple sports).

Source: https://nil-ncaa.com/

What is collective funding?

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

What is collective funding?

It's when you collect funds and fund things with it.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

I didnt realise that the PAC2 are keeping all former teams revenues from the bowls and CFP? So, Oregon's $50millions payout all belong to the PAC2?

Funny they're going with "waiting" for media deal since that's what got you all into that corner to begin with.

What is collective funding?

In order:
The $50M has nothing to do with this year's CFP revenues. It is the final 2 years of the Pac-12's contract with the Rose Bowl. As in $50M in FY 25 and FY 26. Split 2 ways. Same with all NCAA BB units earned prior to 7/1/24. This has all been known for a year now, Rip V.W.

"Funny" doesn't begin to describe Pac-2 or WSU leadership.

Collective funding, if I recall from seeing a definition previously, is some guesstimate of how much Collective money has/is coming in per year per school.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

Collective funding, if I recall from seeing a definition previously, is some guesstimate of how much Collective money has/is coming in per year per school.

I'm pretty sure you would have been crucified on your board for that response.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

I'm pretty sure you would have been crucified on your board for that response.

I think most of them have me on ignore now. Couple that with the handful of idiots that I refuse to converse with, and it is a lonely stretch of stubble (that's a post-harvest wheatfield, not a 4-day growth of beard for all you metro types) on my board. We do have lively threads on our ex-coach Rolo (from our anti-vax contingent) and the ASU non-targeting call. Much more important than things like a media deal or an 8th team.

Although there are a few posters starting to question our all-FCS (so far) coaching staff, and not much comment on our all-FCS (so far) transfers from the portal (aka SDSU).

 

[Masked_rebel]

I think most of them have me on ignore now. Couple that with the handful of idiots that I refuse to converse with, and it is a lonely stretch of stubble (that's a post-harvest wheatfield, not a 4-day growth of beard for all you metro types) on my board. We do have lively threads on our ex-coach Rolo (from our anti-vax contingent) and the ASU non-targeting call. Much more important than things like a media deal or an 8th team.

Although there are a few posters starting to question our all-FCS (so far) coaching staff, and not much comment on our all-FCS (so far) transfers from the portal (aka SDSU).

Sounds like you should be able to compete with Portland St. this year...

 

[Rebel1986]

I think most of them have me on ignore now. Couple that with the handful of idiots that I refuse to converse with, and it is a lonely stretch of stubble (that's a post-harvest wheatfield, not a 4-day growth of beard for all you metro types) on my board. We do have lively threads on our ex-coach Rolo (from our anti-vax contingent) and the ASU non-targeting call. Much more important than things like a media deal or an 8th team.

Although there are a few posters starting to question our all-FCS (so far) coaching staff, and not much comment on our all-FCS (so far) transfers from the portal (aka SDSU).

While almost every player that has come in the transfer portal is from an SEC school for UNLV!

 

[bergemj]

While almost every player that has come in the transfer portal is from an SEC school for UNLV!

And many of the players are from Louisiana.

 

[1Tripoda]

The BIG media is nearly as big as the CFP annual deal. Over $1.1 billion per year. Just f*king wow!

 

[1Tripoda]

The BIG media is nearly as big as the CFP annual deal. Over $1.1 billion per year. Just f*king wow!

The SEC is a measly $750 millions annually. The Big 12 is somewhere near $380 per and the ACC is at $260. The MWC rumoured to be $48 annually?