ESPN Article
- Thread starter InZoneU
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Good read. I was easily in the camp of “wtf are we doing?!?!” With all this conference stuff, but since then I have seen the light$$$$$$$$
Now UNLV football must work on two fronts. First find more money, and second is to make sure the out of conference schedule only includes power 4 schools to improve the strength of schedule to keep UNLV football relevant.
When I talked about finding more money, Odom was first on that list!
I could totally see paying $18M to get out and into a P conference. But the PAC is a slightly better version of the MWC and was widely mocked nationwide when they had SC, UCLA, Zona, etc. and a P conference. Yes the PAC is better. But tangibly not so much. Maybe BB.
Everyone outside of the west coast will not see much of a difference between the PAC and MWC. Glad we saved the exit money and got $20-$25MM to sit still for a few years to help boost our programs for a Power conference push.
Everyone outside of the west coast will not see much of a difference between the PAC and MWC. Glad we saved the exit money and got $20-$25MM to sit still for a few years to help boost our programs for a Power conference push.
So it would have cost us $12MM as the article said puzzling anyone else would have left knowing you could make that up in no time especially since a B4 invite is a long shot at best.
So the PAC was offering 6 mil? Not bad And that is if the 18 mil didn't get negotiated down.
It will be a long shot, and who knows how much money we will actually get from staying since it is based off the new contract and what the PAC eventually pays us.
Also we don't get that 10-14 mil until 2025, so we can give that to Barry just yet? Maybe still extend and offer back paying him in 2 years?
Again we still don't know all of the details. I think Harp thinks we are more than a long shot, but time will tell.
It will be a long shot, and who knows how much money we will actually get from staying since it is based off the new contract and what the PAC eventually pays us.
Also we don't get that 10-14 mil until 2025, so we can give that to Barry just yet? Maybe still extend and offer back paying him in 2 years?
Again we still don't know all of the details. I think Harp thinks we are more than a long shot, but time will tell.
Yeah that's a great plan but you see the flipside of that right? And there's a few. If you are forced to schedule 'up'because your conference is poop..
1) You increase your chances of losing.
2) You will most likely have to take the majority of those on the road.
3) You have zero margin for error. Lose one of those on the road you can't make it up in conference.
Take Boise this year.
Close loss to Oregon. Not the end of the world because a solid conference schedule with 2-3 teams hovering around the top 25-40 allows you to get back in it.
You lose that game and the rest of your schedule is filled with UNM, RENO and possibly Tarleton State etc..You aren't getting back into the mix.
I'm fine saying this was the better move for UNLV but it's not nearly the rainbows and unicorns picture people are trying to paint.
Yeah I caught that $6M reference. Wonder if that is what your 5 traitors got, or if it was more. And the Pac offered Memphis $2.5M to help with their estimated $25M exit fee? Who was doing the math there?
My favorite bit from that was the "Its UNLV, Not UNILV" poster was grabbed by one of the lineman and Im guessing is likely going to hang in the locker room like the "Believe" sign from Ted Lasso...
Well they asked the Memphis AD that exact yes or no question "was it $2.5M?" and he said yes. I watched the actual intereview.
We’ve been complaining for years that UNLV isn’t doing enough to get a P4 invite. Since Fertitta and Allegiant it’s decision have been to position itself for a P4. The MWC deal is no different. It was done entirely to be in a position (no exit fee, $$ to pay Odom) to make that jump if the invite comes. I’m somewhat surprised so many are complaining when we’ve bitched for years about trying to get to a P4. No one ever said it was going to be an easy road without any risk.
Being in a better conference increases your chance of losing just as much (or more) as scheduling up in OOC. Why would we do that to get into a similar situation (not power conference)? Aside from (undefined) revenue, maybe, I guess. I don't understand the worrying about conferences at the G level. PAC, MWC, AAC, CUSA. Nobody cares. Same boat.
I don't see anybody painting this as rainbows and unicorns. I was hoping to move to the PAC also, but I understand that it may not have made sense to do so, once you weighed the offer and had all of the info. Unfortunately, I don't know that any of us have all of the info, but given the lack of money that the school has, and the fee that we would have had to pay, and also the lump sum amount that the MWC agreed to pay us, I can at least reasonably understand why UNLV chose to stay.
I just laid it out. A tougher conference allows more margin for error.
Say at the end of the year Boise wins MWC. They lose regular season to UNLV but win in conference title rematch. A 10-2 regular season vs that schedule is getting the G5 nod over an 11-1 Liberty because their OOC and conference schedule are garbage.
Take basketball and seeding.
A current MWC champion is likely going to get a decent seeding. This new version not so much. We see it all the time.
People keep talking about revenue. And money. And if we win people will come.
UNLV is coming off its best season in forever. They were ranked for first time ever. We played a Fresno team that was top 40ish and traveled reasonably well and we got 30k-ish.
You really think even if UNLV is top 25 we are getting even those numbers vs Wyo or UNM or Tarleton State ?
I know folks are slow to jump on the bandwagon but a worse conference schedule is not going to help increase attendance regardless of what UNLV is ranked.
I know the city was smaller and I know it use to pack the Mack back in the day, but it was the only show/sports in town. That simply isn't the case anymore with VGK and Raiders.
I don't know what the right call was, stay or go to PAC.
I'm just saying, staying also carried it's own inherent risks.
100%
It's more the we'll just dominate the new conference and everything will be fine takes I'm referring to.
I'm not so sure it will be big picture.
I'm in the camp of BIG12 or bust if you decided to stay.
Because I don't think being in this new version of the MWC will elevate UNLV at all.
Texas State a school the MWC probably didn't even have on their radar a year or two ago as a possible expansion candidate just said nope..
The thing that I want to see is what the buyout will be if in 3 years or so, UNLV determines that they're not going to get a Big 12 invitation, so they shift and decide to try to get into the PAC. I believe the new agreement states that they can leave for an autonomous 4 conference with no penalties, but haven't seen what it is if they leave for the PAC / AAC or whatever other non-autonomous 4.
Back to $18M? I hope not, hopefully they negotiate a lower figure since now we have the power. If the Big 12 doesn't pan out in a few years UNLV will have to go to the PAC hat in hand or be relegated to this crap bag of a conference for eternity.
I believe we made the right play, but yeah, dominating the projected conference isn’t gonna mean squat. Gonna suck even worse if we DONT dominate… ugh.
I’m not looking at it through that prism for the time being.
If you use rock bottom numbers it would have cost at a bare minimum $16 million NEXT year, and possibly as much as $20 million or more NEXT year.
The following year it would cost us at a bare minimum $7.5 million. So over the course of the next 20 months it would cost at LEAST $23.5 million in operating capitol.
Once you say yes to the PAC the MW says no $’s for you, so this idea that you don’t have to pay the fees til you leave is not the case.
My guess is that this is why the PAC offer (as referenced in that article) was $6million… basically to cover the remaining balance of exit fees you would owe the MW. If you can get it settled for less “great, but all your getting is $6mil”.
Point is, all that operating capital is important right now.
100%. Plus, I've seen it stated that the boosters, though they wanted the move, didn't want to foot the bill for it. If it was the Big 12 calling, I believe that UNLV would have been able to find the money and booster support to raise the funds and jump ship. But since there's likely no media deal guarantee, and the new PAC is likely not going to be considered a P5 conference, thus getting a guaranteed spot in the CFP, there was too much risk for everyone to make that commitment.
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Buyouts will be bad. Currently it is more than 150% of the remaining contract. 5.5 mil (educated guess here) for5 years +50% is 41.25 mil if we try to leave for the PAC in 2026.
Then again, it may depend on how this lawsuit with the ACC goes. If Clemson & FSU win and are allowed to leave without paying to get out of the GOR, that would set a big precedent for other schools to be able to do the same.
Agree, that buyout wont be small...
Here's one way to project that--- if the ACC and Big 12 fall apart and the super conference is formed between Big 10 and SEC there will be opportunity for the next "Power" conference to form out of the ashes... 2 ways that either we end up in that new "who got left behind" conference, or If by that time the label ends up where the Pac 12 is now a Power conference, then we have a get out of jail free card... Now that's a big if as well and that still provides an unknown till around 2030... It also doesnt matter if the Big10/SEC super conference make it impossible for any other conferences to really matter.. Then it becomes every team for itself.
I feel same way as people saying not going to the PAC was a disaster.
Based on the report today the PAC will be reevaluating it's media market projections suggests to me at least that things aren't going swimmingly there either. They've shut down their search for an 8th member in the meantime.
Again me speculating but on the surface this looks like they had media deal packages and values based on a couple scenarios and the scenario they are currently in wasn't one of them.
If what the 8th member brought to the table didn't matter, go grab NMSU, SAC STATE or Texas State and be done with it.
Maybe it's me being the bride left at the alter bitterness forming that opinion.
But somethings up.
This is what stinks is that there is an equal amount of short term and long-term unknowns.
The short term money won't help us much of we’re stuck in this dead end conference and don’t get the miracle Big 12 invite because their media deal is going to be comfortably bigger than ours.
I have to agree as well. We don't know what they offered Gonzaga. What we do know is that they didn't get any of their secondary targets and that is going to affect their bottom line. Sure Gonzaga is a big name, but it's also a regional school. It's not like BYU or ND that carry fans all across the Country even though it's a religious school. And it's name brand is very limited to a specific sport. That might look cool and be fun to play on a conference schedule, but it doesn't carry that impact into TV boardrooms looking to fill Saturday football content. They're evaluating because they need to see and know what's left in the coffers to bring the right teams in or it was all an exercise in futility.
I was listening to a Spaces in X tonight hosted by Pac 12 fans and some Memphis folks and I think it was an OSU fan or a Boise fan called their new conference "equivalent in football to the Big 12" and I just couldn't stop laughing...
BSU is a really bad example considering that is their only power 4 game. If you play multiple power 4 games you have as much room for a loss as you would being in a better conference and playing only a single power 4 team. UNLV is the only team playing 3 power 4 teams from the group of 5, all others played 2 or in most cases 1 or less.
I wonder what happened with St. Mary's supposedly they were next. We should offer them.
Why. The RTO on basketball only schools is insignificant. Again, they're a small regional brand, great for WCC, but they don't carry the national notoriety of Gonzaga. They also don't help our need for full conference members. The Pac move to add Gonzaga is desperation. They needed a big brand to hear what their media partners might be interested in offering.
If UNLV can destroy Boise State in football, that would remove the PAC flagship football team from relevance this year. UNLV has their own destiny in their hands!
It is apparent that Odom and Harper are very close. It’s Vegas and Harper has rolled the dice and realizes his coach will be a hot commodity after the season. He needs money and right now. Because, it is critical for UNLV to retain Odom by any means necessary. Five more years under Odom UNLV will be Big 12 bound.
Also, it shows the impact of success. Need another $100k for the QB? Here it is, no problem! We will see how this all plays out. But if Odom can continue winning the purses will open up. If the power brokers feel that a winning college football team has value and adds to the Vegas brand, the floodgates will open.
For competitive purposes so that we have a more than one bid conference. Even with them we may be only one bid but it adds the potential for two.
