So now that UNLV is back on track to play in the MW championship game against Boise, I'm starting to look more into the chances that UNLV has for getting into the College Football Playoff (CFP).
From the CFP
website, here are some of the criteria that they give for determining the 12 teams to make it:
Key #1 - the 5 highest ranked (by CFP selection committee) conference champions get an automatic bid. Right now, obviously the Big10, SEC, and ACC have teams ranked in the top 10, so they would be likely to take 3 of the 5 bids. After that, it will be between the MW, Big 12, and American conference to get the other 2 bids.
-Big 12 has 9 teams that are within 1 game of first place. I don't know the criteria on who would have tiebreakers and everything, but the best Big 12 teams by record are ASU, BYU, and Iowa State, with Colorado coming in with 1 more loss overall.
-American conference has two teams tied at 7-0 in conference. Army is 9-1 and was ranked #19 last week prior to losing to Notre Dame, so they should be dropping. Tulane is 9-2 and was ranked #20 in the CFP rankings last week, but didn't play. Ideally, UNLV can jump Tulane, but I don't see it happening just by us beating UNR.
So if UNLV wins out including beating Boise, we would be 11-2 with a marquee win over Boise State.
Army has 2 more games and could end up 11-1, and will play Tulane in the championship game.
Tulane has 1 more game and will end up playing Army in the championship game.
So I think the big question is, would UNLV be ranked higher than either
1. The Big 12 champion, or
2. The American conference champion.
Assuming that any of the 2 loss Big 12 teams end up winning the Big 12 championship, I have a hard time believing that UNLV could end up ranked higher than them, so that leaves us matching up against the American conference champion.
When the new polls come out tomorrow, I'm assuming that UNLV will pass Army in the rankings (mostly due to them having a really weak schedule and getting blown out by Notre Dame), but we'll likely still be ranked lower than Tulane. If Tulane wins this week and beats Army in the championship game, they may be hard for UNLV to jump in the CFP rankings. We might be better off if Army beats Tulane in the championship game, but I'm not sure.
At a glance, Tulane's schedule doesn't look very tough, but for some reason the computers like them. In the ESPN power index, Tulane is #17, while Boise is #27, UNLV is #43 and Army is #54.