Look for the next Announcement Thursday night. Arizona and ASU then we should hear from UTAH this weekend.
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AZ,ASU and UTAH are a package deal for the Big 12.
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It was inevitable. I hate to see the Pac12 go down. Any chance UNLV ever had to get to P5 goes down with it. All we can do now is welcome OSU and WSU to the MWC.
RIP Pac-12.
RIP Pac-12.
I know the Big10 Media partners want WA and OR but the B10 Presidents/officials would welcome Stanford and Cal. All information is flying around 3rd hand and until the B10 makes any official announcements we just don't know for certain. I think Cal and Stanford will go to B10. It will really solidify the B10 on the West Coast.
I was over at the Cougar Lair (Wazzu sports board) and listening to some of these guys they are hearing rumors that they will be the 16th team to the Big12. The thought is Utah won't be the 16th team.
I hope the bad news won't permanently disable them.
I hope the bad news won't permanently disable them.
Hmmmm, lemme think about this....
UU: endowment $1.31b, SLC #30 TV market; kicks WSU butt in revenue sports
WSU: endowment $1.29b, Spokane #66 TV market; at 74 miles away from Pullman, it is also the nearest major airport.
Yep, see you in the MWCT in a few years, Cougs!
Yeah. Somebody in twitterverse had started a rumor that WSU over UU was a thing. Something about BYU would never allow UU into the B12.
WSU fans see it now as unrealistic. One thing about WSU in the MWC basketball tournament is that their fans will travel to Vegas. They will come to Vegas for football as well. Good travelling school.
I saw a post on twitter that proposed a really good question. If the Big 12 was willing to pay Colorado, and basically any other P5 schools the full media share of $35 million (If memory serves me right), and the Big 10 is willing to pay Oregon & Washington a full media share, and were even considering Cal and Stanford at 1/2 media share, then those add up to the following:
Big 12 schools (4x35M = $140M/year)
Big 10 schools (2x80M + 2x40M/year = $240/year)
So between those 8 schools, they could be worth 380 million per year. But those schools in the PAC 12 are worth less than $200 million per year? And that doesn't even include Wazzou and OSU. So even if those schools are worth 10million/year, the media groups are shorting the PAC 12 significantly.
What's the story on that? Are they colluding to try to bring down the PAC 12? It doesn't make much sense IMO.
Big 12 schools (4x35M = $140M/year)
Big 10 schools (2x80M + 2x40M/year = $240/year)
So between those 8 schools, they could be worth 380 million per year. But those schools in the PAC 12 are worth less than $200 million per year? And that doesn't even include Wazzou and OSU. So even if those schools are worth 10million/year, the media groups are shorting the PAC 12 significantly.
What's the story on that? Are they colluding to try to bring down the PAC 12? It doesn't make much sense IMO.
To me the B12 did a fantastic job negotiating a great contract and doing it early. Had the Pac12 begun their negotiations sooner they might have been in a better position. But, the Pac12 said they would be in a better position if they waited. Bad move. They got to the table to only find scraps. The B12 media contract allows for expansion, reward them for being proactive, and that expansion said the B12 could bring in P5 schools at full shares and G5 schools coming in would get partial shares. Brilliant planning in my opinion. The B12 set themselves up for expansion and success in the pocketbook. Don't forget that a year earlier when Texas and OK decided to leave the B12 they were in a position like the Pac12 is in that they were worried it could be the end of their conference. The B12 saw expansion as a way to save themselves and to build that into their media contract was genius. Again, the Pac12 could have gotten to the table earlier and they could have begun expansion earlier. But, their arrogance took the best of them.
I don't disagree with you at all. It's just odd that the media companies are okay with dishing out that much money for all of the same teams (Pac 12 teams) in a different conference, than they're willing to pay for them when they're actually in the Pac 12. It just doesn't make sense, unless part of their plan is to push for more realignment.
I would rather the PAC raid the MWC and let.the MWC die off. The travel to Wyoming is a complete joke. Get rid of sjsu. Losing the 4 corners(ay least for the moment) drops the PAC to 6 schools even if it drops to just Washington St, Oregon St and Cal I would rather join the PAC and get out of the MWC. Add SMU, UNLV, SDSU, Fresno, CSU, BSU, North Texas, Memphis, Hawaii for football and Gonzaga for basketball. (AirForce insteaf of Hawaii if they want in but I don't think they would)
That would be quite a bit better conference then the MWC
That would be quite a bit better conference then the MWC
Agree unless we are one of the schools that die off.
I would rather that also, but it just depends on how many schools are left in the PAC after this all shakes out. Plus, if they don't have a media deal, what exactly are the schools heading into? If no one else leaves besides CO, then yeah, it's worth going obviously. If 3 more schools leave to the Big 12, you're down to 6 in the PAC, so it gets a little sketchy. Still, I'd probably go, as long as we didn't have to pay a big MWC exit fee. If 2-4 additional schools leave for the Big 10, then you're left with either 2 or 4 teams in the Pac 12. Realistically, I'm not sure how they would rebuild at that point, as opposed to doing a merger of some sort
I believe that if a conference drops below 7 active division 1 members they are no longer a conference per the NCAA. I've heard there is a minimum requirement of schools to make up a conference and I looked it up in the 23-24 NCAA Manual and it specifically says that "A multisport conference shall be composed of at least seven active Division I members."
My interpretation is that without at least 7 active members your goose is cooked. No more conference. There won't be a conference to join or merge. I'm not a lawyer and if someone can find a better interpretation to the NCAA manual then please enlighten me. In this case I would welcome being wrong in my interpretation.
Part of the problem is if these schools all have to pay $17m (or more, which is as likely), none will leave in time to save pac 12. That's assuming of the 9 remaining schools, Arizona, asu, and Utah stay in 2024... if they don't, there isn't enough time.
Also, what would suck is to be stuck with Kliavkoff.
Seems like the tone is changing. With the B10 only offering WA & OR 50% of full shares which would be around 30 to 35 million the two Pac12 schools are wavering. They look at it as $30 million minus $10 million in travel costs they are pretty much back to the $20 million dollars they would get from Apple.
So if they are a no go then all eyes are on Arizona. Arizona my decide to stay as well.
Good news for the Pac.
So if they are a no go then all eyes are on Arizona. Arizona my decide to stay as well.
Good news for the Pac.
Yeah, it's been a hectic 24 hours. SO, as it stands at this moment, PAC 12 has 9 teams after Colorado leaving.
As you said, there's still a chance that AZ stays. If they manage to keep all 9, how many teams would they add? They've already talked about SMU and SDSU. Would they just add one of those 2 to get to 10? I can't see them going to 11. So it's likely either 10, 12, or go ham and try to add a bunch to add some stability.
If they go to 12, would UNLV have a chance to be that 3rd team added? I'd have to think so, unless they want to get into a different region (Tulane, etc)
However, if AZ does decide to leave, and no one else goes, that puts them at 8. Same question applies, but at that point, they'll likely add SMU and SDSU, but will they stay with just those 10, or try to get back up to 12?
I do believe the PAC has been getting lowballed, because no one wants to commit to something that will look much different that it has been, at least during the past 5 months. SO yes the PAC is being low balled. THings may open up once the dust settles. If the PAC raids the MW or vice versa, the MW partners may be willing to deal with that new iteration, when they didn't want to before.
While nobody knows anything for sure, this guy has thrown out so many “this is about to happen” headlines that it’s hard to believe him after > 1 year of seeing his breaking news.
Yeah, I hear you. But from what I've seen, he's actually been pretty good on the info, just not on the timelines.
Either way, it's sounding like we'll know a lot more in the next few days. If OR and WA jump, then that will crush the PAC, as they're some of the bigger names remaining. Also, I'm sure that would 100% push AZ out the door. Any other schools with offers from the Big 12 would likely jump at that point too. It's all about what AZ, OR, and WA decide in the next day to few days.
From what I've seen, a conference only remains functional if it has at least 7 teams in it. So if those 3 teams leave, the PAC would only have 6 teams remaining. Would that be the end of the PAC12 conference, or is there a time frame for the PAC to add schools to get back to 8-12 teams?
Correct. Anyone that moves first will create a cascading domino effect for the others. I don't think the Pac 12 could react fast enough to survive because I'm guessing their new TV offer assumes the full membership and would back away from their numbers without...
The interesting aspect is the UA/ASU conversation with their regents. They've got a similar problem that we do with Reno in that ASU isn't as attractive to the Big 12 but their regents won't want to allow UA to run off and leave them behind. Lots of interesting conversations I'm sure
The interesting aspect is the UA/ASU conversation with their regents. They've got a similar problem that we do with Reno in that ASU isn't as attractive to the Big 12 but their regents won't want to allow UA to run off and leave them behind. Lots of interesting conversations I'm sure
Absolutely. It's such a weird scenario. If you are worried about the conference falling apart, and jump ship, you're likely forcing it to fall apart. Money money money
I mean we can't give any credence to what the PAC - or any conference - says publicly as they are all negotiating for the best deals possible. Public comments are meant to sway and not give info.
The PAC would have to eat so much of the MW in order to get them below 7 schools. Which is possible, and arguably likely. SDSU, BOISE, UNLV, CSU, Fresno St. AFA. Then Grab SMU and Tulane for the money and the markets.
It will be an upgrade for the MW schools, and a down grade for the remaining PAC schools financially.
I'm sure if they did that, those MW schools would jump no problem.
If Stanford and Cal also get poached then they would eat even more MW schools.
It sounds like the Big 12 is changing their tune now as well. They've already voted to accept Arizona if they want to join, but they're exploring their options after that. Meaning that they may or may not still invite ASU, Utah, etc. If it's true that Oregon and UW are going to the Big 10, then the remaining PAC schools are going to lose a lot of their bargaining power, so the Big 12 may be able to get them for much less that a full share. Crazy how quickly things are changing
I would think they have until June 30th 2024 when teams will officially be leaving. So with six team or 4 teams or 2 teams I guess they can merge with the MWC until that date. Can't just try and pull teams from the MWC because our exit fees would be too steep to get into the 24-25 season. Unless the Pac12 has a butt load of money to pay for some exit fees.
Hard to see Stanford lowering themselves to get into the MWC. We are like trash to them. Cal might hold their nose and go for it. Wazzu and OSU will join I would think. I can't see much other options for them.
Agreed. I think it's going to depend on what happens with Utah and ASU. If AZ, UO and WA all leave, and the Big 12 decides not to extend invitations to Utah and ASU, then you'll be left with 6 teams in the PAC. They still have some decent schools, but are in a very tough spot for filling out the remaining spots. They also would still not have a media deal, and it would be hard to get without getting commitments from other schools to join in 2024.
It is crazy. Big12 may take ASU and then go after SDSU. Utah President said some stupid shit a year ago when approached by the Big12. From what I've read he said something like that they would stay in the Pac12 because they were a better fit culturally. That couldn't have gone over very well.
Yeah, and ASU's president has been a circus also, it sounds like. I could see them just taking Colorado and AZ at this point.
Can we throw our hat into the Big 12 ring for half a share for 2 years?
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