@dcut03
One of us has to have a gross misunderstanding or difference in our calculations. I'm not vain enough to think it can't be on my part. I feel at this point we're hitting each other with excellent logic but someone's math is wonky. Seriously, if I tried to quote respond back at you that thing would be 6 pages long haha.
But I'm also not quite nerdy enough to spreadsheet it. The truth will be somewhere between our positions.
Fair enough, a couple of things are true I believe.
The exit fees are heavily influenced on the value of the contract. What you are assuming that defectors get cut off now, losing 11 million for all school but Boise, then are charged an additional 18 if fees hold up 100%. That is not true. The withheld money are a part of the fees. It can't be both.
From all recent realignment, teams negotiate on the final fees much later than them announcing, I think the PAC did it in the Spring maybe? The AAC defectors from 2 years ago negotiated to pay theirs over time. I think the PAC paid a lump sum.
So it seems to me that we would continue and the traitorous 5 now continue to get all of the usual contract money, but will be paying it back in some way or form later. Whether it is a lump sum or payments is seemingly part of the negotiations.
Also in terms of the agreement, from UNLV's website
"According to a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by President Whitfield, the Mountain West will pay an estimated lump sum of $10-to-14 million to UNLV in 2025, and also pay UNLV approximately $1.5-to-1.8 million annually over a six-year period beginning in July 2026. The new payments are on top of the current revenue streams from existing contracts and media assets. The current media deal expires in June 2026 and negotiations for a new media deal will begin in the near future. The university will also have the flexibility to explore future membership in an autonomous “Power Four” conference without penalty should the opportunity become available. "
UNLV will NOT be getting additional preferences in the contract beyond this. So in 2032 we will be getting the same as everyone else. This is not a sweetheart deal that Boise got. The MW didn't want to make that mistake twice.
They are getting 24.5% of all the distributed revenue from all the fees coming from the PAC between poaching and exit fees. Notice how it is a range. If every last penny was expected to be paid, there would NOT be range. We would know exactly what we would be getting. Or at least a more narrow range. Also this deal was made BEFORE the lawsuit. So those numbers can also change.
Also every last penny coming from the PAC won't go straight to the schools. They need some for operational revenue and pay UTEP's fees and anyone else who may join.
Also crunching numbers right now if we get the full 14 mil + the full 1.8 mil per year after that, that is a total of 24.8 million. That looks to be the MAX possible we will get from staying. And that is if we are unlucky enough not to be poached by the big 12 in the next years. Notice that is far less than 24.5% of 145 million of receiving every last penny of what is reported (55 mil in poaching, 145 toal with exit fees). It actually lines up with the 110 million dollar number of 55 mil in poaching fees and 55 mill in exit fees (average of 11 per school), with left over for operational expenses.
It was reported that the PAC offered us 6 million to join. How much of the exit fees get negotiated down is a guess, but every other instance it has been negotiated down. The range in the payouts also supports that theory. I think it will be 11 mil, because that is the final pay out for all of the schools besides Boise. Again whether that is now or later, but I would be surprised that it is now.
I am assuming some things yes, and I have no idea what our contracts say vs other conferences. But I don't think that the MW's are somehow that much more ironclad. Our fees are very high over 150% of the payout worth. I think they were set very high to counter the inevitable negotiations, netting a higher overall fee windfall. I see this in healthcare all the time. Hospitals raise rates knowing that it will be a percentage payment from the insurance companies. Then the regular payment gets totally screwed if they have a deductible.
I also don't know the exact number the fees will be, but I am pretty sure that we can't assume we get every last dollar of ever fee. The MOU pretty much supports that.
I did miss on on the estimated range, it is more than I remembered. But again I do think it could be lower than originally projected because of the lawsuit. Also the payout structure also supports coming from one lump sum (the poaching fees), then payments later ( team will be paying off exit fees over time).
Can you see my logic now? Any disputes with anything I just said?
