Pete Thamel on conference realignment
- Thread starter bcvegaspt2
- Start date
Some recent reads have said the media revenue would be under 10 million and as low as 7 million. This is just another read that projects under 10M.
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The finances from a new TV deal are expected to be below what the league's consultants pitched schools initially. In the wake of the initial flurry of schools going to the league, ESPN reported schools were shown projected revenue from a TV deal north of $10 million per school, but conditions have changed.
That number projects under $10 million for the new deal starting in 2026 but is still expected to be more than those schools would have received had they remained in the Mountain West. The other financial variable is related to the buyouts for the five MW schools.
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Still more than what we will get but in the case of BSU it's not much of an increase and actually the exit fees are going to sting for quite a while.
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The finances from a new TV deal are expected to be below what the league's consultants pitched schools initially. In the wake of the initial flurry of schools going to the league, ESPN reported schools were shown projected revenue from a TV deal north of $10 million per school, but conditions have changed.
That number projects under $10 million for the new deal starting in 2026 but is still expected to be more than those schools would have received had they remained in the Mountain West. The other financial variable is related to the buyouts for the five MW schools.
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Still more than what we will get but in the case of BSU it's not much of an increase and actually the exit fees are going to sting for quite a while.
In the end, the Pac 12 departing programs will say it was a good choice and brand is better than $... but reality is they got suckered into a conference that's got bad leadership and will be grappling with realignment talks for the next 5-7 years, regardless of their commitments. Add in that basically OSU/WSU own all the power in the decision making and it's a mess... then you factor in 4 or 5 TV partners trying to fill holes in the schedule and you'll end up watching games in the middle of the week at like 4pm...
The absolute funniest thing that could happen would be for OSU and WSU to get a call from the ACC tomorrow who add them to give Cal and Stanford travel partners.
Could happen, I dont think it will untill FSU, Clemson, UNC, Duke, Miami and a few others bolt for the BIG and SEC, when it definitely will, but it could happen sooner?
So my question is what would the media deal be had we reverse merged on Day 1, made a big ballyhoo about it, and so on?
My $5 sez it would have been as good as the Pac-? is going to end up with. Minus all the penalties and lawyer fees, etc. Or the increased travel to new members. Oh wait, The Pac doesn't have those new members yet, who must be licking their chops at what they will want.
"F" that 🤡 Peter "Puffer" Thamel!
He was talking ish about Tark, having NIL before NIL.
I love Barry's response, "Like the Special Education Conference did! Lol
He was talking ish about Tark, having NIL before NIL.
I love Barry's response, "Like the Special Education Conference did! Lol
My hope would be to see SDSU, BOISE, USU, CSU and Fresno sitting there like WTF do we do now! Its just us and Texas State!
Purely a guess..
With so many mouths to feed...
It bumps up from 4.5 ish to 5.5 maybe 6 ish with reverse merger.
By trimming fat,
New PAC deal hits around 9.
It would have been zero fanfare because it’s the pac leftovers downgrading into the MWC.
A lot of factors here that are being overlooked.
First, this looks to be a bad deal for the PAC-2, no way to slice it, for everyone else though, still a pretty good move.
Say that the PAC-2 are worth 15 mil a piece. I believe it could be that high or higher, but I'm guessing most here do not. Either way if they were to join the MW. Worth that much it would raise the average payout 1.6 million a piece. that's it.
The base contract for the mountain west is 3.6. That's it. It gets raised to 5 with the CFP payout.
If the base for the new Pac 12 is 9, that is a huge win for the defectors. Plus the smaller conference gets more per team for the CFP bonus. The teams going to the CFP and the NCAAT get bigger shares. So a team like Boise can make much more in the new conference.
So look at the PAC 2, it really depends on these negotiations. I am guessing the traiterous teams will get at least some help on their exit fees. So they have to pony up for that. They have to pay whatever the poaching fee gets settled at.
But knowing Gloria, I would not be surprised that she demanded the "war chest" of the PAC 2 gets shared with a merger. In fact that is what I am guessing that is exactly what happened. Taking it on the chin with a 5.2 base media payout, having to share the CFP with more teams, and giving away their war chest vs building from scratch, risk paying up to 55 mil in poaching fees and whatever help they would have to do on other exit fees.
At least you can see where it makes some sense for them too. Still a bad situation for them, but you could see where it would still be better for them in the long run vs merging.
First, this looks to be a bad deal for the PAC-2, no way to slice it, for everyone else though, still a pretty good move.
Say that the PAC-2 are worth 15 mil a piece. I believe it could be that high or higher, but I'm guessing most here do not. Either way if they were to join the MW. Worth that much it would raise the average payout 1.6 million a piece. that's it.
The base contract for the mountain west is 3.6. That's it. It gets raised to 5 with the CFP payout.
If the base for the new Pac 12 is 9, that is a huge win for the defectors. Plus the smaller conference gets more per team for the CFP bonus. The teams going to the CFP and the NCAAT get bigger shares. So a team like Boise can make much more in the new conference.
So look at the PAC 2, it really depends on these negotiations. I am guessing the traiterous teams will get at least some help on their exit fees. So they have to pony up for that. They have to pay whatever the poaching fee gets settled at.
But knowing Gloria, I would not be surprised that she demanded the "war chest" of the PAC 2 gets shared with a merger. In fact that is what I am guessing that is exactly what happened. Taking it on the chin with a 5.2 base media payout, having to share the CFP with more teams, and giving away their war chest vs building from scratch, risk paying up to 55 mil in poaching fees and whatever help they would have to do on other exit fees.
At least you can see where it makes some sense for them too. Still a bad situation for them, but you could see where it would still be better for them in the long run vs merging.
I agree with most of this. But if Boise spent all of that money for a $1m more a year payout (considering their sweetheart deal with the MW), people should be getting fired.
They didn't do it for the 1M...
They did it because they didn't want to be overshadowed by UNLV. I know it sounds arrogant to say after 1 year of success prior to them moving but thats the reality of us getting our S*** together for football... they created a conference that they will easily dominate in football. Sure they "wanted" UNLV, but not enough to involve us from the beginning and certainly not at a 1 or 2 million dollar difference in what they may get...
15 mil x2 OSU/WSU
SDSU 8
BOISE 8
FSU 6
CSU 7
Gonzaga 5
USU 5 (Generous)
TX STATE 5 (Generous)
74 ÷ 9= 8.2 mil per.
USU is a distant 3rd in Utah so they can't have any type of national draw.
I don't know if those are right but they gotta be close.
To raise the valuation of each any higher then all remaining MWC were worth 1 million or less.
You are way beyond generous for Gonzaga, USU and TX state. Gonzaga is basketball only, and they get to keep much of the money they bring in from basketball ($5 million at best only if they stay top 10-15 in basketball. USU would be at or near the bottom of the current MWC, so I would believe they would be more in the 2-3 million range, Texas State would most likely also be in that range. As for OSU and WSU, I do not believe they would be much over $10-12 million at best based on how quickly they are dropping off over the last couple of years. BSU is the only one I would probably increase to around $10+ million.
I don 't think they are worth that either. I was showing how hard it is to get to 10 to 15 mil per school with that lineup. A lineup mostly consisting of schools from a conference getting around 5 mill per year.
Gonzaga negotiated their pay out to be equal to full member, reportedly. That has been out there for months.
Am I misunderstanding something about how that works?
I guess you are! We were talking about the value of each team to the overall PAC contract, and the fact the Gonzaga has no football team, and keeps most of their tournament money, drags down the overall value of the PAC. It has zero to do with any negotiated deal, so I think you are comparing apples to oranges. Or do you think Gonzaga is going to be worth $10-15 million to the PAC?
I think Loco has it correct as well. The Gonzaga shit is just that - shit. They make a lot of money in their (admittedly high profile) non-con schedule, which will go 100% to them. And get to keep 1/2 of any NCAA BB credits. And share 100% in our FB revenues? They have to be getting up every morning and laugh at Teresa Ghoul (aka fool) and the PAC (aka Pathetic Asshat Clueless-ones).
To give them all that is pretty much the definition of desperation of the Pac. When Mark Few retires they will more than likely turn to shit. However, that pile of shit is going to make a lot of money while the rest of the Pac rubs their nutz and wonders what have we done.
Here's an analogy.
Imagine you go into a dealership to buy a new car. Sticker price 50k.
In your mind if you get them down to 45k you got a smoking deal.
Gonzaga walked in and before they could say 45k the PAC said 35k AND lifetime warranty!
No way PAC needed to give up everything they did to get Gonzaga.
Gonzaga gets more than they were getting in their old conference. Gets to keep all their units AND get football money..
Great job Theresa..
How is Gonzaga pimping their basketball teams?
How does that work since they don’t have a football team lol
How does that work since they don’t have a football team lol
