NIU TO MWC

[dcut03]

Same weekend.

NDSU VS South Dakota State ESPN2 175K Views.
Hawaii VS WSU 258K CW
UNM VS USU 34K TRU TV
North Texas vs Memphis 34K ESPNU
UTSA VS Memphis 147k ESPN2 (This was a week or two later)

NDSU is in a small market but they own that market.

Their FCS playoff game last year pulled over 1mil views.

Montana/Dakota markets are small but untapped by other FBS conferences. Add all four even football there is value.

Meh. That was one game against 2 of the best FCS teams in the country. Also on ESPN2. Which helps A lot. It wasn't the least watched ESPN2 game all, year. There were some AAC games that did worse. For comparison A NMSU vs Liberty game on ESPN2 that started at 10:15 eastern (!) pulled 160k viewers, with Liberty being an east coast team.

All ESPNU games do poorly, It seems like they are not carried by many outlets anymore. They are consistently the the worst rated games of each week.

They were going again Georgia -Texas at the same time, which is a monumental task, but there weren't many other huge games at the same time that week.

It's good, but a little hard to extrapolate from that one, pretty high stakes game.

Interesting to see the WAZZU/OSU game had nearly 700k views. This was with OSU being bad, and WAZZU eliminated from the playoff already. They have media value.

 

[Rebel1986]

Meh. That was one game against 2 of the best FCS teams in the country. Also on ESPN2. Which helps A lot. It wasn't the least watched ESPN2 game all, year. There were some AAC games that did worse. For comparison A NMSU vs Liberty game on ESPN2 that started at 10:15 eastern (!) pulled 160k viewers, with Liberty being an east coast team.

All ESPNU games do poorly, It seems like they are not carried by many outlets anymore. They are consistently the the worst rated games of each week.

They were going again Georgia -Texas at the same time, which is a monumental task, but there weren't many other huge games at the same time that week.

It's good, but a little hard to extrapolate from that one, pretty high stakes game.

Interesting to see the WAZZU/OSU game had nearly 700k views. This was with OSU being bad, and WAZZU eliminated from the playoff already. They have media value.

Typically the lower level games on the CW get around 300-450K viewers and the mid level games get around 450K-600K viewers (including UNLV v Oregon State). Based on that you could argue that the combined game with both of those teams added another 100K-150K in value. My expectation is UNLV will continue to improve in value on a national level, while Oregon State and Washington State will continue to erode without their past TV contracts and money, I wouldn't be surprised if the UCLA game ends up on a major network, and if the viewership numbers put UNLV in a better light on a national level.

 

[RebelinWA]

Facilities are a big problem. The Fargodome holds fewer than 19,000 when it totally full. BUT, they only fill it for rivalry games. They got 18,700 for S. Dakota State but only got 10,200 for Abilene-Christian. And it looks like there is no way to expand - meaning they would need a new stadium. ( below is a picture of the Fargodome and an article on costs to build a 30,000 seat Stadium)

Fargodome Gets a New AstroTurf Magic Carpet in Time for the 2022 NDSU Bison Football Season

astroturf.com

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/how-much-would-a-new-football-fVdgfSMyRdqApnOyYgd2EA

That's true that capacity would become an issue for some of the schools. But if we're looking at average attendance, NDSU, South Dakota State, and the Montanas would fit in the MW.

School	Average attendance for 2024	Capacity %
UNLV	32,203	49.54%
Air Force	26,226	66.49%
Montana	25,845	102.49
San Diego State	24,770	70.77%
Wyoming	21,937	75.18%
Montana St.	21,899	123.19
UTEP	19,393	41.55%
SDSU	18,504	95.68
Nevada	17,419	64.52%
NDSU	16,789	89.78
San Jose State	16,058	87.92%
New Mexico	16,001	40.79%
Hawaii	12,963	76.66%

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

BC I’m dreaming…

Your dreams involve Gregg Marshall. My dreams involve Sydney Sweeney. My dreams win.

 

[RebelinWA]

Just for fun, I did put this together this list of home attendance, this is all of the schools that have been mentioned at some point or another as either going to the Pac, or MW.

School	2024 averages	Capacity
Fresno State	40,600	98.95%
Boise State	37,235	102.33%
Oregon State	35,799	100.71%
Colorado State	33,082	80.30%
UNLV	32,203	49.54%
South Florida	31,424	47.72%
Air Force	26,226	66.49%
Montana	25,845	102.49
San Diego State	24,770	70.77%
Memphis	24,552	39.36%
Tulane	23,980	79.93%
Texas State	23,619	78.73%
Washington State	22,413	69.50%
Wyoming	21,937	75.18%
Montana St.	21,899	123.19
Toledo	21,519	82.64%
UTSA	21,059	32.40%
UTEP	19,393	41.55%
South Dakota State	18,504	95.68
Nevada	17,419	64.52%
Utah State	16,992	66.60%
North Dakota State	16,789	89.78
San Jose State	16,058	87.92%
New Mexico	16,001	40.79%
Sacramento St.	14,047	66.27
Western Kentucky	13,828	62.53%
Hawaii	12,963	76.66%
UC Davis	11,266	103.84

Sources:

2024 FCS Regular-Season Attendance Leaders

Jackson State is once again the FCS leader in average home attendance, drawing 27,213 fans per home game.

herosports.com

2024 FBS Attendance Trends | College Athletics News | D1 ticker

Data through Week 14. * indicates school's stadium is under renovation and capacity is not the same as 2023

www.d1ticker.com

 

[WarthogRebel]

That's true that capacity would become an issue for some of the schools. But if we're looking at average attendance, NDSU, South Dakota State, and the Montanas would fit in the MW.

School	Average attendance for 2024	Capacity %
UNLV	32,203	49.54%
Air Force	26,226	66.49%
Montana	25,845	102.49
San Diego State	24,770	70.77%
Wyoming	21,937	75.18%
Montana St.	21,899	123.19
UTEP	19,393	41.55%
SDSU	18,504	95.68
Nevada	17,419	64.52%
NDSU	16,789	89.78
San Jose State	16,058	87.92%
New Mexico	16,001	40.79%
Hawaii	12,963	76.66%

I've been up to Bozeman a few times in the past couple of years to bring my Grandson to Mt. State games. Great environment. Really tight and loud. They could easily get the capacity up to above 30,000 by building out the South endzone. They could probably fill it now, too.

 

[jmcnamaraiii]

I like Montana. Just don’t see it happening.

 

[SilverSpoon]

For UNLV's sake, we need more NIU's in this league. BSU no longer runs anything. UNLV has it from here.

The MWC is sending a message knowing the PAC is on a Memphis/Tulane pipe dream. They couldn't leave in time even if they were feasible.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

The more I look at Montana, Montana State, NDSU and South Dakota State, the more I wouldn't mind them being FB only additions and then full members. That would be 4 of the top FCS programs being added. Anybody here think NDSU couldn't beat a number of the current MWC/PAC schools?

You'd absolutely lock up those markets (as small as they are).

I do not think they would negatively impact a media deal.

Also seeing lots of Twitter chatter that NIU is all but a done deal.

 

[RebelinWA]

The more I look at Montana, Montana State, NDSU and South Dakota State, the more I wouldn't mind them being FB only additions and then full members. That would be 4 of the top FCS programs being added. Anybody here think NDSU couldn't beat a number of the current MWC/PAC schools?

You'd absolutely lock up those markets (as small as they are).

I do not think they would negatively impact a media deal.

Also seeing lots of Twitter chatter that NIU is all but a done deal.

Did you hear if Toledo is still in the mix? Or is that one dead in the water? I think NIU, and the corner 4 FCS schools would be a pretty good football conference. They'd all be competitive. NIU would take a swing at us immediately. NDSU would be able to go toe to toe with almost everyone in the conference already, minus UNLV and San Jose. They might not have the depth to a deep run in conference, but early on they'd be dangerous. In their current states, I couldn't imagine UTEP or New Mexico being able to beat any of those FCS teams. reno would be fighting for its life. Wyoming would be able to win, but it'll be close. San Jose is going to be a power house next year. AFA, flip a coin.

 

[unlv7163]

Will be interesting to see what NIU does. If UC Davis is making long term plans to join the MW, then that would give the MW some protection in the future should UNLV (or anyone else) get a P4 invite. Very strategic on the MW’s part

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Did you hear if Toledo is still in the mix? Or is that one dead in the water? I think NIU, and the corner 4 FCS schools would be a pretty good football conference. They'd all be competitive. NIU would take a swing at us immediately. NDSU would be able to go toe to toe with almost everyone in the conference already, minus UNLV and San Jose. They might not have the depth to a deep run in conference, but early on they'd be dangerous. In their current states, I couldn't imagine UTEP or New Mexico being able to beat any of those FCS teams. reno would be fighting for its life. Wyoming would be able to win, but it'll be close. San Jose is going to be a power house next year. AFA, flip a coin.

Nothing on Toledo for awhile.

There were initial talks and then nothing else.

Maybe NIU bouncing would encourage them? I don't know. The MAC media deal is pretty low like 1.5 million? So even if MWC media deal drops to 3.5 and MWC offers say 2.5 it's a net gain for NIU since it's only FB and you're only talking about the extra travel costs of three conference away games and not all other sports.

(I have no idea on actual numbers just spitballing it.)

 

[Rebel1986]

The more I look at Montana, Montana State, NDSU and South Dakota State, the more I wouldn't mind them being FB only additions and then full members. That would be 4 of the top FCS programs being added. Anybody here think NDSU couldn't beat a number of the current MWC/PAC schools?

You'd absolutely lock up those markets (as small as they are).

I do not think they would negatively impact a media deal.

Also seeing lots of Twitter chatter that NIU is all but a done deal.

It isn't so much how well they play, it is what they would do in regards to degrading the TV contract. Do you think these small market teams could improve the TV contract, if yes, then it would be a good move, if no, then it isn't a good move.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

It isn't so much how well they play, it is what they would do in regards to degrading the TV contract. Do you think these small market teams could improve the TV contract, if yes, then it would be a good move, if no, then it isn't a good move.

I posted some viewership numbers of some like matchups above, NDSU VS South Dakota State did better viewership numbers than a number of current MWC teams on the same weekend. The 'prize' potential addition for the PAC Memphis only did 80k more views.

I get reluctance because of the small market sizes of the Dakota and Montana schools, but you would corner those markets completely. There's no other FBS schools in those states. It would not shock me at all if an NDSU VS AFA drew better numbers than say a UNM VS Reno. Or Wyoming VS SJSU.

I don't believe they would hurt a Media deal.

MWC might struggle to match its current 5 million per school distribution.

There really aren't many more realistic or viable options that I can think of.

NMSU? Would be redundant with UTEP. Sam Houston State already essentially said no. They just made the jump up recently. Sac State? Maybe, but I think they are holding out for or hoping for a PAC invite.

 

[RebelinWA]

I posted some viewership numbers of some like matchups above, NDSU VS South Dakota State did better viewership numbers than a number of current MWC teams on the same weekend. The 'prize' potential addition for the PAC Memphis only did 80k more views.

I get reluctance because of the small market sizes of the Dakota and Montana schools, but you would corner those markets completely. There's no other FBS schools in those states. It would not shock me at all if an NDSU VS AFA drew better numbers than say a UNM VS Reno. Or Wyoming VS SJSU.

I don't believe they would hurt a Media deal.

MWC might struggle to match its current 5 million per school distribution.

There really aren't many more realistic or viable options that I can think of.

NMSU? Would be redundant with UTEP. Sam Houston State already essentially said no. They just made the jump up recently. Sac State? Maybe, but I think they are holding out for or hoping for a PAC invite.

Unless one of the pac commits leaves them at the alter, we have to be realistic of whats out there. These 4 schools are the best of FCS. It doesn’t seen like there is a good fit out there with any other Cusa or Sun belt teams. The AAC isn’t interested. Our options are few.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Unless one of the pac commits leaves them at the alter, we have to be realistic of whats out there. These 4 schools are the best of FCS. It doesn’t seen like there is a good fit out there with any other Cusa or Sun belt teams. The AAC isn’t interested. Our options are few.

Toledo possibly.

NMSU makes sense with geography and natural rivalry with UNM but I'm not sure they help a media deal much now that UTEP is in the fold. I guess you'd have the state of New Mexico locked up.

 

[saulpaul21]

And if that had been us and North Dakota you could take the zero off that attendance number. I can't wait to play games in November in Fargo when it's minus 138 degrees.

Fargo has the Fargodome to play in so weather only an issue on getting there. Seats 19,000 for football. Until recently they packed it. But now Fargo fans are bored with beat downs over non name schools and they rarely pack it.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Fargo has the Fargodome to play in so weather only an issue on getting there. Seats 19,000 for football. Until recently they packed it. But now Fargo fans are bored with beat downs over non name schools and they rarely pack it.

Even if they pack it 19K doesn't generate much excitement.

 

[saulpaul21]

Even if they pack it 19K doesn't generate much excitement.

Indoor stadium with 19,000 was a great football environment when fans were not bored. Espn game day even went to Fargo twice around 10 years ago.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Indoor stadium with 19,000 was a great football environment when fans were not bored. Espn game day even went to Fargo twice around 10 years ago.

I believe that, just 19K attendance is pretty weak.

 

[RebelinWA]

I believe that, just 19K attendance is pretty weak.

19k would be 2600 more than what we averaged just 5 years ago. I get it, different era. But we aren't that far away from that number.

 

[dcut03]

I can't see how adding any of these 4 teams wouldn't hurt the bottom line.

They are tiny, tiny markets.

Good at football at the FCS level, but really hard to see how they handle the jump. Most often there are major growing pains, and those are often at the lowest of the low in terms of FBS level.

Extrapolating both of those teams viewership on the one time they made it to ESPN2, a heavily watched channel does no say much. What are their streaming numbers, since I imagine that is how most of their games are broadcast? We can't get those, but I bet the media partners can.

Then it costs each team an extra 5 mil a piece to make the jump. Could they indpendently afford that? Or will the MW have to dip into their funds that has already been promised to the existing members to do so?

All just to expand the conference beyond the minimum for what? adding extra conference games and diluting our overall SOS? ALl while reducing payouts for all exisiting members?

The addition of NIU kinda sucks, and having one travel partner seems to be a must. So I get that.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

19k would be 2600 more than what we averaged just 5 years ago. I get it, different era. But we aren't that far away from that number.

I wouldn't have wanted to add us 5 years ago either. If we aren't adding a team that contributes to the bottom line, and I don't see any way that happens here, then I don't get the point of adding teams just to add them.

 

[RebelinWA]

I can't see how adding any of these 4 teams wouldn't hurt the bottom line.

They are tiny, tiny markets.

Good at football at the FCS level, but really hard to see how they handle the jump. Most often there are major growing pains, and those are often at the lowest of the low in terms of FBS level.

Extrapolating both of those teams viewership on the one time they made it to ESPN, a heavily watched channel does no say much. What are their streaming numbers, since I imagine that is how most of their games are broadcast? We can't get those, but I bet the media partners can.

Then it costs each team an extra 5 mil a piece to make the jump. Could they indpendently afford that? Or will the MW have to dip into their funds that has already been promised to the existing members to do so?

All just to expand the conference beyond the minimum for what? adding extra conference games and diluting our overall SOS? ALl while reducing payouts for all exisiting members?

The addition of NIU kinda sucks, and having one travel partner seems to be a must. So I get that.

Working on getting the numbers together from published data. Started a spreadsheet if anyone wants to take a look specifically between MW/PAC/potential members. Its a list I am still updating as I find more data, so its not quite complete. I don’t expect to get it to a done state, but I will try.

The largest limiter to the data I have is companies like CBS don't really share their numbers externally. Though, having seen those dashboards personally, I can tell you the divide between MW and Pac isn't significant.

We're playing in the factor of tens of thousands to hundred of thousands. Where as big schools talk in factors of hundreds of thousands to millions. There is a clear divide between the SEC/ Big vs the ACC/Big12. That jump exists between MW/Pac and AAC/MAC/Sunbelt/CUSA.

 

[RebelinWA]

I wouldn't have wanted to add us 5 years ago either. If we aren't adding a team that contributes to the bottom line, and I don't see any way that happens here, then I don't get the point of adding teams just to add them.

Cherry picking is a luxury that we don't really have. Neither does the Pac, but they won't admit it.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Cherry picking is a luxury that we don't really have. Neither does the Pac, but they won't admit it.

Except the PAC has to add a team to get to the minimum. We aren't required to add anyone so unless it adds to our net income we shouldn't.

 

[RebelinWA]

Except the PAC has to add a team to get to the minimum. We aren't required to add anyone so unless it adds to our net income we shouldn't.

Gloria needs to think ahead. She is a phone call away from either UNLV or AFA leaving. Maybe not for next year, but the possibility is there.
Best case scenario is we leave, and they can keep it together with whats left.

To your point, the 4 fcs schools might not necessarily add to our net income, but it doesn’t mean they require a full share to move up. At partial shares, it should be a win win all around. Way more money than what they’re used to without impacting our own bottom line.

 

[dcut03]

Gloria needs to think ahead. She is a phone call away from either UNLV or AFA leaving. Maybe not for next year, but the possibility is there.
Best case scenario is we leave, and they can keep it together with whats left.

To your point, the 4 fcs schools might not necessarily add to our net income, but it doesn’t mean they require a full share to move up. At partial shares, it should be a win win all around. Way more money than what they’re used to without impacting our own bottom line.

How about wait for UNLV/AFA to leave before diluting the already diluted conference?

Let's be real, UNLV is the only school that has a shot to leave for a P4. AFA was a threat for the AAC only.

With the addition of NIU, the conference is already covered if UNLV leaves, which is still a longshot if we are real.

 

[RebelinWA]

How about wait for UNLV/AFA to leave before diluting the already diluted conference?

Let's be real, UNLV is the only school that has a shot to leave for a P4. AFA was a threat for the AAC only.

With the addition of NIU, the conference is already covered if UNLV leaves, which is still a longshot if we are real.

That's best for us, but not best for the conference. I am fine with what is best for us; but I am realistic that Gloria is going to do what's best for the conference. It is a longshot for us to make it to a P4, but it isn't impossible. We'll know in 3 years.

 

[dcut03]

That's best for us, but not best for the conference. I am fine with what is best for us; but I am realistic that Gloria is going to do what's best for the conference. It is a longshot for us to make it to a P4, but it isn't impossible. We'll know in 3 years.

It's best for us and the conference. Any addition, perhaps even NIU included will drop the media payouts per team. Additional FCS have a 5 mil pricetag on top of that.

Every school added at this point will hurt the bottom line for everyone.

They are already protected from 1 team leaving. Why add more?

 

[RebelinWA]

It's best for us and the conference. Any addition, perhaps even NIU included will drop the media payouts per team. Additional FCS have a 5 mil pricetag on top of that.

Every school added at this point will hurt the bottom line for everyone.

They are already protected from 1 team leaving. Why add more?

We'll agree to disagree.

 

[InZoneU]

The more I look at Montana, Montana State, NDSU and South Dakota State, the more I wouldn't mind them being FB only additions and then full members. That would be 4 of the top FCS programs being added. Anybody here think NDSU couldn't beat a number of the current MWC/PAC schools?

You'd absolutely lock up those markets (as small as they are).

I do not think they would negatively impact a media deal.

Also seeing lots of Twitter chatter that NIU is all but a done deal.

I said all along we should add NDSU, SDakSt, and both Montana's as they would have no problem competing in the MWC and make the conference more competitive.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

I said all along we should add NDSU, SDakSt, and both Montana's as they would have no problem competing in the MWC and make the conference more competitive.

More I look into some of their viewership numbers, I don't think they would negatively impact a future media deal.

Minimum I'd like to get NDSU.

 

[dcut03]

More I look into some of their viewership numbers, I don't think they would negatively impact a future media deal.

Minimum I'd like to get NDSU.

Do you have anything more than the one game that was on ESPN 2?

IT is hard to exrapolate too much from that one game. I mean ESPN 2 will get a bunch of ratings simply because it is ESPN 2. Nearly every sports bar in the country is going to have it on by default. And yes, those count for ratings. That game was the 5th least watched game on ESPN2 this season out of ~ 75 games.

And that was the potentially 2 best teams in the FCS going against each other a really big game for both of them.

Truth is The greater Las Vegas area has a larger population than the entire state of Montana and the 2 Dakotas COMBINED.

I just can't see how adding them won't hurt the bottom line.

Adding just one? Preferably NDSU? Maybe, just to give NIU a partner.

 

[dcut03]

I said all along we should add NDSU, SDakSt, and both Montana's as they would have no problem competing in the MWC and make the conference more competitive.

Historically that isn't true. There have been a few exceptions, but typically FCS team making the jump struggle. Most of them are near the top of FCS before they make the jump and all of them have jumped to much easier conferences. The MW will be bad, but I don't think it will be Sun Belt and C USA bad.

the one not listed here is the most recent call up Kennessaw St which went 2 -10 this year

How Have Former FCS Teams Performed After Transitioning To The FBS?

Here are the teams that have jumped to the FBS since 2008 and their records as FBS programs for each season.

herosports.com

 

[RebelinWA]

Historically that isn't true. There have been a few exceptions, but typically FCS team making the jump struggle. Most of them are near the top of FCS before they make the jump and all of them have jumped to much easier conferences. The MW will be bad, but I don't think it will be Sun Belt and C USA bad.

the one not listed here is the most recent call up Kennessaw St which went 2 -10 this year

How Have Former FCS Teams Performed After Transitioning To The FBS?

Here are the teams that have jumped to the FBS since 2008 and their records as FBS programs for each season.

herosports.com

I’d throw in Idaho. They struggled so much that they went back to FCS.

 

[Rebel1986]

I’d throw in Idaho. They struggled so much that they went back to FCS.

They were D1 from 1917 to 2017, they never were FCS until 2018.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Meh. That was one game against 2 of the best FCS teams in the country. Also on ESPN2. Which helps A lot. It wasn't the least watched ESPN2 game all, year. There were some AAC games that did worse. For comparison A NMSU vs Liberty game on ESPN2 that started at 10:15 eastern (!) pulled 160k viewers, with Liberty being an east coast team.

All ESPNU games do poorly, It seems like they are not carried by many outlets anymore. They are consistently the the worst rated games of each week.

They were going again Georgia -Texas at the same time, which is a monumental task, but there weren't many other huge games at the same time that week.

It's good, but a little hard to extrapolate from that one, pretty high stakes game.

Interesting to see the WAZZU/OSU game had nearly 700k views. This was with OSU being bad, and WAZZU eliminated from the playoff already. They have media value.

You may want to look at viewership numbers for Reno, NMU....

Take out any 'prime' matchups.

They are shockingly bad.

Yes Vegas is massive. So is San Jose and their numbers aren't great.

Market sizes and market penetratiin both matter.

If market size was all it was about SJSU would be highly sought after.