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Josh Pastner Analysis

Couev

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Dec 8, 2003
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So, I think I'm luke warm on the Pastner hire, and while I think he's a definite upgrade over Kevin and Menzies, I think there's a huge faction of fans that were looking either for someone with a bigger name or someone with a higher ceiling. I think those things are absolutely fair criticism. So I've been trying to do a deeper dive into the pros and cons objectively without emotion or bias. I will put forward that my deeper dive is still only a morning's worth of research and I might have some things wrong here don't take anything I'm posting as gospel but I'm not being intentionally deceptive. I don't expect this to sway anyone who is leaning one way or another, but I'd like to make sure we at least are well informed as a fan base if I can.

Anyway, lets break it down:

Coaching History:

* Pastner started on Lute Olsen's Staff for six years (well, 5 and 1 with O'Neil), and helped the Wildcats reach 2 final fours in 2002 and 2005.
* He then moved on to join John Calipari's staff at Memphis as the lead recruiter for a year.
* When Cal moved to UK, Pastner got the job as the Head Coach at Memphis
* Over 7 years as the HC at Memphis he had a record of 167W - 73L which is .696.
* At Memphis he made the dance 4 of 7 years with a 2-4 record, and the NIT one year with 1-1 record.
* His final 2 seasons at Memphis were bad (See: Kevin Kruger) after Memphis moved to the AAC, so bad that Memphis paid his buyout for him to take the Georgia Tech job, so that's not a firing technically, but that's a firing where it matters.
* Pastner initially had success, but ran into NCAA troubles which included a 4 year probation, a 1 year post season ban and included a lot of vacated wins.
* Pastner also had sexual assault allegations which came to light from his Memphis days but further put him under scrutiny while at GaTech.
* He did go on a magical ACC tournament run in 2021, but was never really able to recover from the probation (2019-2023) and was fired after back to back sub .500 seasons in 2023.
* As GaTech's HC over 7 years he had a record of 109W - 114L, .494 danced 1 of 7 years (0-1) and made the NIT twice making deep runs (6-2).
* Won the Conference USA coach of the year twice, and the ACC coach of the year once.

Coaching Style:

* He utilized elements of Lute Olson's 1-4 and Calipari's Dribble drive while at Memphis
* He tried implementing parts of the Princeton offense at GaTech with varying amounts of success to fit his personnel's athletic shortcomings.
* While at Memphis he ran a higher tempo offense, finishing in the top 50 in PS/G 5 of 7 years and top 60 in adjusted tempo 4 years, but only in the top 100 PA/G twice.
* While at GaTech he opted for a more methodical approach on both sides of the ball having a top 60 defense for his first 4 years there before the wheels came off.

Coaching Strengths:

* Superb recruiter as an assistant
* Recruiting while at Memphis was at times stellar but inconsistent. His classes were ranked 2nd, 56th, 37th, 5th, 64th, 34th, 123rd but the 56th and 64th classes were very small.
* Has shown flexibility in instituting different systems and working in wrinkles based on personnel.
* He has shown the ability to develop guards from low tier recruits to NBA players (DJ Stephens Unranked, Jose Alvarado 3*, Josh Okogie Unranked).
* Is willing to select a staff to help fill in his weaknesses.
* Has time in big programs getting big success as an assistant, and has good coaching contacts developed over his career.

Coaching Weaknesses:

* Below average at in-game adjustments.
* Has a tendency to underperform based on his talent acquired.
* Recruited generally poorly at GaTech, some say that's the reason for him working in the Princeton offense.
* Issues with roster construction, has a bit of that Dave Rice talent first, fit second aspect to his game.
* Has an issue developing highly talented players, especially bigs.
* Doesn't always recruit his current roster.

Intangibles:

* Extremely charismatic and likeable guy who works well with fundraising and boosters and the community.
* Apparently a very hard worker/high effort guy (though some GaTech fans wish he would have put more recruiting effort in).
* Finished his bachelor's and masters and started his doctorate in 4 years at Arizona so he's clearly sharp and motivated.
* Appears to be alive on the sideline and seems to give in-game instruction (though these may be of questionable quality given the weaknesses).
* Struggled with the first iterations of the transfer/NIL portal--but I think that's true of a lot of the old school great recruiters, can he adapt?


So where am I at? I give the hire somehwere between a B- and a C+ depending on what his staff and contract actually looks like and what sort of NIL package he can help squeeze out of the boosters. I think if I were going to do a comparison to prior UNLV coaches he's a little bit Bayno and a little bit Rice, obviously without the learning on the job issues. I personally have concerns about what his floor AND ceiling can be here. Personally, at this stage of the program, I would have rather taken a swing with someone with more upside if we were unable to hire someone that moves the needle. But I also know that budget/salary constraints may have meant we couldn't afford a buyout or the salary someone like Crean might demand.
 
To be blunt, his hire is just who we are now. There aren’t any Pitinos or Wrights coming to save us. We are a mid level athletic school with a mid level budget with limited NIL monies and a dwindling fan base (basketball). Since we are all in now with JP we need to be supportive. Bitching and in fighting can happen down the road if things don’t work out. For the time being, I’d love for him to try to keep a few pieces off last years team. Several have tremendous up sides and would provide nice continuity moving forward.
 
So, I think I'm luke warm on the Pastner hire, and while I think he's a definite upgrade over Kevin and Menzies, I think there's a huge faction of fans that were looking either for someone with a bigger name or someone with a higher ceiling. I think those things are absolutely fair criticism. So I've been trying to do a deeper dive into the pros and cons objectively without emotion or bias. I will put forward that my deeper dive is still only a morning's worth of research and I might have some things wrong here don't take anything I'm posting as gospel but I'm not being intentionally deceptive. I don't expect this to sway anyone who is leaning one way or another, but I'd like to make sure we at least are well informed as a fan base if I can.

Anyway, lets break it down:

Coaching History:

* Pastner started on Lute Olsen's Staff for six years (well, 5 and 1 with O'Neil), and helped the Wildcats reach 2 final fours in 2002 and 2005.
* He then moved on to join John Calipari's staff at Memphis as the lead recruiter for a year.
* When Cal moved to UK, Pastner got the job as the Head Coach at Memphis
* Over 7 years as the HC at Memphis he had a record of 167W - 73L which is .696.
* At Memphis he made the dance 4 of 7 years with a 2-4 record, and the NIT one year with 1-1 record.
* His final 2 seasons at Memphis were bad (See: Kevin Kruger) after Memphis moved to the AAC, so bad that Memphis paid his buyout for him to take the Georgia Tech job, so that's not a firing technically, but that's a firing where it matters.
* Pastner initially had success, but ran into NCAA troubles which included a 4 year probation, a 1 year post season ban and included a lot of vacated wins.
* Pastner also had sexual assault allegations which came to light from his Memphis days but further put him under scrutiny while at GaTech.
* He did go on a magical ACC tournament run in 2021, but was never really able to recover from the probation (2019-2023) and was fired after back to back sub .500 seasons in 2023.
* As GaTech's HC over 7 years he had a record of 109W - 114L, .494 danced 1 of 7 years (0-1) and made the NIT twice making deep runs (6-2).
* Won the Conference USA coach of the year twice, and the ACC coach of the year once.

Coaching Style:

* He utilized elements of Lute Olson's 1-4 and Calipari's Dribble drive while at Memphis
* He tried implementing parts of the Princeton offense at GaTech with varying amounts of success to fit his personnel's athletic shortcomings.
* While at Memphis he ran a higher tempo offense, finishing in the top 50 in PS/G 5 of 7 years and top 60 in adjusted tempo 4 years, but only in the top 100 PA/G twice.
* While at GaTech he opted for a more methodical approach on both sides of the ball having a top 60 defense for his first 4 years there before the wheels came off.

Coaching Strengths:

* Superb recruiter as an assistant
* Recruiting while at Memphis was at times stellar but inconsistent. His classes were ranked 2nd, 56th, 37th, 5th, 64th, 34th, 123rd but the 56th and 64th classes were very small.
* Has shown flexibility in instituting different systems and working in wrinkles based on personnel.
* He has shown the ability to develop guards from low tier recruits to NBA players (DJ Stephens Unranked, Jose Alvarado 3*, Josh Okogie Unranked).
* Is willing to select a staff to help fill in his weaknesses.
* Has time in big programs getting big success as an assistant, and has good coaching contacts developed over his career.

Coaching Weaknesses:

* Below average at in-game adjustments.
* Has a tendency to underperform based on his talent acquired.
* Recruited generally poorly at GaTech, some say that's the reason for him working in the Princeton offense.
* Issues with roster construction, has a bit of that Dave Rice talent first, fit second aspect to his game.
* Has an issue developing highly talented players, especially bigs.
* Doesn't always recruit his current roster.

Intangibles:

* Extremely charismatic and likeable guy who works well with fundraising and boosters and the community.
* Apparently a very hard worker/high effort guy (though some GaTech fans wish he would have put more recruiting effort in).
* Finished his bachelor's and masters and started his doctorate in 4 years at Arizona so he's clearly sharp and motivated.
* Appears to be alive on the sideline and seems to give in-game instruction (though these may be of questionable quality given the weaknesses).
* Struggled with the first iterations of the transfer/NIL portal--but I think that's true of a lot of the old school great recruiters, can he adapt?


So where am I at? I give the hire somehwere between a B- and a C+ depending on what his staff and contract actually looks like and what sort of NIL package he can help squeeze out of the boosters. I think if I were going to do a comparison to prior UNLV coaches he's a little bit Bayno and a little bit Rice, obviously without the learning on the job issues. I personally have concerns about what his floor AND ceiling can be here. Personally, at this stage of the program, I would have rather taken a swing with someone with more upside if we were unable to hire someone that moves the needle. But I also know that budget/salary constraints may have meant we couldn't afford a buyout or the salary someone like Crean might demand.
Man, I feel exactly the same right now.

I don't know if WE have ever agreed so much!
 
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Man, I feel exactly the same right now.

I don't know if WE have ever agreed so much!
The funny thing about us is we have super in depth discussions when at the end of the day the difference between the two of us is you're like 5% more optimistic than I am. I mean, we'll beat that 5% difference to death with replies, but I think if you checked out of the boards I'd probably be the next most positive person haha.
 
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Man, I feel exactly the same right now.

I don't know if WE have ever agreed so much!
I think he’s actually an upgrade over Otz, too. Not in ability, but Otz had exactly zero intention of staying. Before he took this job he knew he wasn’t going to be here but it was a way to grab a mill per year and just coast by on minimum effort and setting up next job. We should all be so lucky.

If he hits near a Rice/Bayno level, which is better than Spoon …. Obviously all three are all better than the last three … the hire is fine. If it’s more of the same, it’s just digging a deeper hole.

I honestly believe the ability is there, partly because doing better than the last three is a very low bar, partly because he has shown some spark, as well. But I had every ability to be a straight A student, but wasn’t.

I do have contacts very in the know with JP and they swear it’s a really good hire and will change things here dramatically. I really believe they believe what they are telling me. I just don’t but it yet.

Seriously, it starts with portal. Grab benchers from MVSU as your starters, I’ll not be too enthused or confident. Battle some power conferences for 5th year guys that can do more than one skillset, I’ll feel better.

I’m one that doesn’t think it takes a long time to have a strong feeling that eventually proves right whether somebody can or can’t get it done.

Unfortunately, we’ve yet to see a coming to Jesus moment for any coach here that is struggling … they keep doing the same things over and over and expect different results and it leads to their demise. I do think Rice hit that point by way of a more functional recruiting class over star players but we didn’t see that materialize. If it’s broke, make the efforts to fix it. We see a lot of stubbornness out of coaches (it really is a common trait with coaches).
 
Crean makes more at ESPN than the salary offered here would have been, is my understanding.

Yes, there were discussions. Either UNLV didn’t have the cash or misvalued, wanted to go cheap ….
Or Crean didn’t want to backload the deal. Maybe Crean prefers cash upfront, huge signing bonuses etc. We gave Pastner a measly 30 grand to sign the contract.

Obviously Harper had to be creative on a contract given the hefty CKK buyout and I don’t think guys like Crean (even Keatts, Wade etc) want to deal with contractual gymnastics.
 
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Seriously, it starts with portal. Grab benchers from MVSU as your starters, I’ll not be too enthused or confident. Battle some power conferences for 5th year guys that can do more than one skillset, I’ll feel better.

I’m one that doesn’t think it takes a long time to have a strong feeling that eventually proves right whether somebody can or can’t get it done.
For me, I'd like to see him retain Pape, Brooklyn, and Henley, especially with his ability to develop guards. I don't think we can afford Dedan. I'm not sure about James Evans, but I didn't really see anything from him so it's hard to evaluate.

Then, I'd kind of like to see those non-mentioned names hit the portal unless you really think you can develop some of them with a quick turn around. For me, I don't think there's enough talent there to worry about trying to build up Banarabie or push up Jace Whiting to a starter.

After that, bring in 2-3 graduate transfers, ideally from bigger programs and another 2-3 transfers with multiple years of eligibility, and maybe figure out a way to get a couple of HS kids who would be high upside developmental projects. Pastner is historically pretty good with talent evaluation.
 
For me, I'd like to see him retain Pape, Brooklyn, and Henley, especially with his ability to develop guards. I don't think we can afford Dedan. I'm not sure about James Evans, but I didn't really see anything from him so it's hard to evaluate.

Then, I'd kind of like to see those non-mentioned names hit the portal unless you really think you can develop some of them with a quick turn around. For me, I don't think there's enough talent there to worry about trying to build up Banarabie or push up Jace Whiting to a starter.

After that, bring in 2-3 graduate transfers, ideally from bigger programs and another 2-3 transfers with multiple years of eligibility, and maybe figure out a way to get a couple of HS kids who would be high upside developmental projects. Pastner is historically pretty good with talent evaluation.
I'd like Cherry back too. He was better than I expected and you can't have enough 7'0" 275 lb guys on your roster. The one thing I do like about Pastner over CKK is he's bound to have many more connections with basketball personnel so I don't think putting together a decent staff should be much of an issue.
 
I'd like Cherry back too. He was better than I expected and you can't have enough 7'0" 275 lb guys on your roster. The one thing I do like about Pastner over CKK is he's bound to have many more connections with basketball personnel so I don't think putting together a decent staff should be much of an issue.
I may be an outlier, but I found Bear to be a bit slow, a bit soft, and a bit lazy despite running the floor well and being athletic enough. Shied from contact and wanted to play a finesse game offensively. Maybe if Pastner can teach him a drop step or an up-under move to go with his panic hook I would change my stance. If he's a bench big getting 10-15 minutes a game I'm fine with that too, but he just doesn't move the needle for me as a starter.
 
I may be an outlier, but I found Bear to be a bit slow, a bit soft, and a bit lazy despite running the floor well and being athletic enough. Shied from contact and wanted to play a finesse game offensively. Maybe if Pastner can teach him a drop step or an up-under move to go with his panic hook I would change my stance. If he's a bench big getting 10-15 minutes a game I'm fine with that too, but he just doesn't move the needle for me as a starter.
“… doesn’t move the needle for me as a starter.” Not. One. Bit!

I don’t even want him back based on the reasons you provided, even for a backup role. Sure, if he’s playing against me as the center at 6’2”, he will have a good game. If you’re tall and have a shred of talent, he’s out of his league.

But his nickname is “Bear” so people think he’s going to be more than he is.
 
“… doesn’t move the needle for me as a starter.” Not. One. Bit!

I don’t even want him back based on the reasons you provided, even for a backup role. Sure, if he’s playing against me as the center at 6’2”, he will have a good game. If you’re tall and have a shred of talent, he’s out of his league.

But his nickname is “Bear” so people think he’s going to be more than he is.
I just want my 7'0" 275 lbs center named Bear to try to dunk through someone a time or two. He's more a Panda than a Grizzly.
 
I want Bear back. He can score in the post, which is a skill that is hard to come by and is making a comeback in college basketball.
Pastner has struggled developing bigs, but any sort of offense that can so SOMETHING to set him up, use his big body for screens, etc. I will take.
 
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I think he’s actually an upgrade over Otz, too. Not in ability, but Otz had exactly zero intention of staying. Before he took this job he knew he wasn’t going to be here but it was a way to grab a mill per year and just coast by on minimum effort and setting up next job. We should all be so lucky.

If he hits near a Rice/Bayno level, which is better than Spoon …. Obviously all three are all better than the last three … the hire is fine. If it’s more of the same, it’s just digging a deeper hole.

I honestly believe the ability is there, partly because doing better than the last three is a very low bar, partly because he has shown some spark, as well. But I had every ability to be a straight A student, but wasn’t.

I do have contacts very in the know with JP and they swear it’s a really good hire and will change things here dramatically. I really believe they believe what they are telling me. I just don’t but it yet.

Seriously, it starts with portal. Grab benchers from MVSU as your starters, I’ll not be too enthused or confident. Battle some power conferences for 5th year guys that can do more than one skillset, I’ll feel better.

I’m one that doesn’t think it takes a long time to have a strong feeling that eventually proves right whether somebody can or can’t get it done.

Unfortunately, we’ve yet to see a coming to Jesus moment for any coach here that is struggling … they keep doing the same things over and over and expect different results and it leads to their demise. I do think Rice hit that point by way of a more functional recruiting class over star players but we didn’t see that materialize. If it’s broke, make the efforts to fix it. We see a lot of stubbornness out of coaches (it really is a common trait with coaches).
Meh, for me it is hard to say better than Otz, when Otz has done much more as a coach in tougher leagues.

Sure he was looking to leave, but I would guess Josh is too. Josh is probably not waiting for one specific job though, so there is that. So yeah, different in that regard.

It good to hear some are excited behind the scenes.

Right out of the box, more potential than Kevin even if nothing changes. But just like Kevin, I am looking for some things to change with style of play because half court offense is very important, probably now more than ever. No teams that get out of the first weekend this past few years do so by rolling the ball out there.

Sure cart before the horse, just getting there would be huge. But what happens if his ceiling in Leon Rice? Bubble team every year, usually in the first four, and can never win a game. That is no man's land, and right now to me that looks like his ceiling.
 
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I think it starts with AJ Storr... he's been a transfer basket case at the P4 level, but bring him home for a yr vs MWC competition and let him play in Vegas... He'd be a pretty good piece for Pastner to try and bring in, even with his personality.
 
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For me, I'd like to see him retain Pape, Brooklyn, and Henley, especially with his ability to develop guards. I don't think we can afford Dedan. I'm not sure about James Evans, but I didn't really see anything from him so it's hard to evaluate.

Then, I'd kind of like to see those non-mentioned names hit the portal unless you really think you can develop some of them with a quick turn around. For me, I don't think there's enough talent there to worry about trying to build up Banarabie or push up Jace Whiting to a starter.

After that, bring in 2-3 graduate transfers, ideally from bigger programs and another 2-3 transfers with multiple years of eligibility, and maybe figure out a way to get a couple of HS kids who would be high upside developmental projects. Pastner is historically pretty good with talent evaluation.
I agree with the guys you mentioned but Hicks is out of control all the freaking time, maybe Josh can perform some developmental magic but I ain’t holding my breath. This guy has been disappointing to say the least!
 
I want Bear back. He can score in the post, which is a skill that is hard to come by and is making a comeback in college basketball.
Pastner has struggled developing bigs, but any sort of offense that can so SOMETHING to set him up, use his big body for screens, etc. I will take.
No, he has done it at least once, with Moses Wright.

He came in a “0” star and was ACC player of the year in 2021. So he has big development not only on his resume but he has a player to point to as well!

Just letting you know! 😉
 
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No, he has done it at least once, with Moses Wright.

He came in a “0” star and was ACC player of the year in 2021. So he has big development not only on his resume but he has a player to point to as well!

Just letting you know! 😉
Remember, Bear came to UNLV overweight. Worked on it prior to start of the season and lost at least 50lbs. I would think he would be able to improve now that he has a year under his belt.
 
I may be an outlier, but I found Bear to be a bit slow, a bit soft, and a bit lazy despite running the floor well and being athletic enough. Shied from contact and wanted to play a finesse game offensively. Maybe if Pastner can teach him a drop step or an up-under move to go with his panic hook I would change my stance. If he's a bench big getting 10-15 minutes a game I'm fine with that too, but he just doesn't move the needle for me as a starter.
You’re not an outlier, or maybe you are, but you saw it well. I felt similarly about Whaley. Limited, sporadic, optional motor.
 
How much do we attribute to the player and how much do we attribute to the staff for the lack of development?

“Hicks was a wild player, out of control.” Ok he was here for 2 seasons and we knew that from day one. Yet it doesn’t seem like he was reigned in, lack of system? Drills? Idk if we can pin these things on the player.
 
How much do we attribute to the player and how much do we attribute to the staff for the lack of development?

“Hicks was a wild player, out of control.” Ok he was here for 2 seasons and we knew that from day one. Yet it doesn’t seem like he was reigned in, lack of system? Drills? Idk if we can pin these things on the player.
Of course it’s on the player. Kids these days are allowed to be responsible for their successes and failures.
 
Hicks has the motor, quickness and tenacity to be a good player. But lacking any kind of shot and structure . Hope CJP can get more out of him.
 
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I agree with the guys you mentioned but Hicks is out of control all the freaking time, maybe Josh can perform some developmental magic but I ain’t holding my breath. This guy has been disappointing to say the least!
I think Hicks as the motor and the athleticism to be really good, I just don't think he's been developed properly. His fundamentals, especially on defense are really poor. I personally would stop treating him like a combo guard and figure out how to either improve his handles and distribution OR his outside shooting. I wanted to keep him (and Pape over Bear) because I think those are excellent indicators of the new staff's ability to develop.

No, he has done it at least once, with Moses Wright.
I don't ever feel that one is a pattern, Wright did turn into an all ACC player so maybe it's there, just not as prevalent as him getting guards to the NBA.
 
I want Bear back. He can score in the post, which is a skill that is hard to come by and is making a comeback in college basketball.
Pastner has struggled developing bigs, but any sort of offense that can so SOMETHING to set him up, use his big body for screens, etc. I will take.
We couldn't get along for just one day, could we :D.

I just don't think Bear has all that nasty in him. He does not like it when players get physical with him. He has a very limited post move set and rushes to get to his shot points. He has nice touch on the hook, but too often it's hurried. With his frame and athleticism just giving him a solid dropstep where he attacked the cup, or an up and under--the most basic post moves--he'd be a much better offensive option. But those moves require you getting physical, initiating contact, getting smacked. I don't think he likes that. If he could develop a little elbow jumpshot he could play finesse on offense better.

There's tools there, for sure. I have just seen him loaf so many times getting to his spot on the glass, or reaching for a loose ball, and I don't think he has a mean streak in him. I think that's why I'm more frustrated with him than you are.
 
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We couldn't get along for just one day, could we :D.

I just don't think Bear has all that nasty in him. He does not like it when players get physical with him. He has a very limited post move set and rushes to get to his shot points. He has nice touch on the hook, but too often it's hurried. With his frame and athleticism just giving him a solid dropstep where he attacked the cup, or an up and under--the most basic post moves--he'd be a much better offensive option. But those moves require you getting physical, initiating contact, getting smacked. I don't think he likes that. If he could develop a little elbow jumpshot he could play finesse on offense better.

There's tools there, for sure. I have just seen him loaf so many times getting to his spot on the glass, or reaching for a loose ball, and I don't think he has a mean streak in him. I think that's why I'm more frustrated with him than you are.
I get being frustrated with him, I have been, we all have.

Like Whaley, Bear has been the best player on the floor at time, just dominating down low. He is by no means perfect, but any player that can do that, especially in the post, I do not want to discard that. I like having a multiple offense, and if you can create a match up having a player that can get you a bucket, I think that can be a valuable asset.

And for being as big as his is, he did run the floor well, and was a decent defender. Endurance may not have been there, but some of that "loafing" can be attributed to that. He has lost weight, and hopefully he continues to do so.

Pape will take a while to be someone who can post up, get fed, and expect a bucket. He may never get there.

But our offense was so inefficient, that of course Bear disappeared at times. But it is not like we did ANYTHING to get him a look. We didn't hardly clear out run any type of post to post screen, anything to get him open or try to get him a "mouse in the house" type of match up.

Now I think Whaley is toast, I can see from his body language that his back issues were legit, it also looked like he put back on about 50 lbs. Not a great combo, especially for his style of play.

No if CJP has a guy that can do all of those things and more, and he can be replaced, by all means do that. We don't need 2 centers like that, and like you I want to keep Pape.
 
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