The issue is the media deal expires in 2026 I believe. So even though they have 4 years to figure out survival course, they have 1 year to get axplan and make moves strong enough to get a media rights agreement that won't completely suck. It has to be more favorable than CUSA or WAC otherwise you're not getting teams to jump.
IF REMAINING MWC TEAMS WERE SMART
- Thread starter Bullmastiff 1
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That's the thing and to your point who can you add.
Current MWC configuration isn't going to pull same media deal it just had.
I'm not sure there's anybody they could poach to get back to that either.
AAC media is like 2 million more already.
CUSA is considerably less, but there's no guarantee a new look MWC could pull much better than what they currently have.
Spit balling, but would bringing in the 2 Montana and 2 Dakota schools move the needle at all?
I don't know.
When does the $110MM in exit fees get divided among the schools? At announcement or actual departure in 2026? Our share pays the exit fees.
Not saying the would, those are just the only directions that the MWC can really look. My expectation is UNLV will not be in the MWC in two years. It is time to get to the NCAA playoff and make noise!
Yeah, that's what I've been wondering also. I wouldn't think the departing schools would have to pay until they actually leave, but I don't have the contract to verify that. If that's the case, it wouldn't be for 2 more years, right?
For the longevity of the MWC, I think the real question is regarding the media deal. From what I can see, the current deal runs through the 2025/2026 season. So basically, the rest of this school year, then all of next. However, I'm sure that the conference would be in negotiations with the media groups much earlier to start working out the details of an extension, or a new contract.
That would put the MWC in a tough spot for negotiations. 4 of the bigger schools have put in notice to leave, so the new contract would likely be quite a bit lower than the current one. This may be where UNLV and the other schools have the ability to vote to break up the conference. If, hypothetically, the remaining MWC get a new media deal offer than caps out at $1,000,000 a year, or something like that, would you be better trying to break away to join a different conference? I'd say yes for at least a majority of the schools including UNLV, AF, USU, UNM.
They may not be able to have the number of schools required to dissolve the conference initially, but how many MWC schools are required to agree to whatever new media deal is offered? I'd think it would have to be a majority, right? So if Hawaii doesn't get a vote, then 4 of the 7 remaining members could basically veto any new media deal, which would essentially blow up the conference. Why would the schools stay if they're not going to be getting a paycheck?
That would be my line of thinking in this. Get those 4 schools together to agree to not sign off on any new media deal. Then, go to the other schools and tell them what they're planning to do. At this point, you come to an agreement with the 4 departing schools, to where they pay a percentage of the fee, which gets split evenly between all of the remaining schools, and then you vote to dissolve the conference.
This could be a totally wrong line of thinking since I don't know the details of how these all shake out, but it seems at least reasonable IMO.
I wonder if that would be considered collusion, and end up in the courts?
What do you consider the other 4 schools from leaving at the same time? Isn't that basically the same thing? You're working with some other schools to create the best situation for your own school.
Meh.
Air Force is a national name, just by being an academy. It isn't super strong, but at least it is national.
Utah State is a distant 3rd fiddle to Utah and BYU, in a state with 3.38 million people. Not sure if it is worth it. Utah is a national brand now, and BYU is national and is the default University of LDS. Like Notre Dame is to Catholics.
But here is the thing.
By dissolving you potentially forgo all of the exit fees and the NCAAT money.
The Majority of the leftovers are looking at 1-2 mil per year. Regardless of what happens. If they keep some semblance of the MW together, they will have all of that money to work with. They could use that to rebuild or perhaps keep it and try a merger with the CUSA or something.
But by dissolving they just give up that money which is substantial. I just don't see it.
Sure UNLV and AFA would love that. Without the exit fees they are prime to be picked up somewhere, the other schools? Not so much.
AFA is going AAC. Reports popping up today they are a candidate.
Utah State has decent athletics.
AF has major limitations as to how good they can get in most sports.
You already have CSU in Colorado market.
I'd rather get into another market as small a share as it might be.
Air Force is a national brand I guess but a distant 3rd fiddle to Army and Navy. They are all unique.
Not that I want to see the MW dissolve, but if they did wouldn't the money be distributed pro-rata to all the schools? And the NCAA money would go (I think?) to the schools that earned the credits? And I wonder if the 4 (and counting) traitors would share in the money since they are still in the conference?
Nothing finalized but have to think this is happening.
Another domino..
If the MW dissolves would the 4 even have to pay an exit fee?
The PAC will pay the withdrawal fee. That is already signed in blood.
I don't see how you dissolve if two can stay and collect all the money. Wouldn't it be 10 x $ 17 mil + $ 10 mil for every school that goes to the PAC? Well over $ 200 mil. That's 14+ years worth of MW media rights per school.
The argument could be made that those 2 schools prevented the larger group from creating a more profitable conference affecting their bottom lines and those programs dont have the same resources to challenge the way the Pac 2 did. Part of the Pac 2s argument was the withdrawl of the rest of the teams was done before they had been in open negotiations for the conference rights and that caused them to not be able to secure those figures in away to keep things from falling apart. Since the 4 are openly leaving at this point, thats not part of the conversation, so the remaining teams with a place to go but dont want to or have the $ to pay the fee could argue the conference currently doesnt have a viable path to profitability and as such should dissolve.
Perhaps, but the leftovers shouldn't want to share that revenue if they don't want to, and they shouldn't.
Just like the PAC, you willingly left, so part of that is losing your right to leftover incoming funds. Can't have your cake and eat it too. If they MW votes to dissolve they could be forgoing all if not most of the exit fees, then sharing the NCAAT profits. Or perhaps giving that up if it only goes to the teams that earned it.
I don't know, this feels very much the same as the PAC. The media rights were closer to being expired, but it is very similar. If anything, the MW contract language seems to provide more protections to remaining teams if they were to get poached.
It is meant to protect teams for be effed, like they are. Saying that they are effed so they have to legally dissolve is backwards. The PAC just set a pretty comparable precedent for this just months ago.
The remaining MW teams have the rights to MW revenue and all of the exit fees that are coming their way if they stick together. They would be stupid to give that up.
Especially if AF leaves then you have more revenue to split among fewer schools, at that point agree to break up the conference and the remainders go their own way and now you have this war chest to split up meantime.
I think there is risk in staying put too though.
Take Hawaii out of equation.
We are at 7 now.
AFA looking like AAC will happen.
Now down to 6.
AAC as 14 teams now. They are at 15 with AFA. Have to imagine they would want to even it out to 16 so that's one more potential landing spot.
Just for funsies, let's say it's UNLV.
You are now down to 4. WYO/USU/RENO/UNM
What can you attract to that conference?
CUSA goes to 12 next year. Maybe they go to 16?
I really think Memphis and Tulane news one way or the other will speed up the process for everybody.
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Likely not. Break up and all the money may just go away. The conference has to exist for the exit fees to be mandated. The PAC fought this and lost because the leftovers were keeping the conference alive. I think many expect that they wouldn't have to pay since the conference was likely doomed
WYO/USU/RENO/UNM would stay and make a new MW conference. Keep $ 50 mil each.
Add: NMSU, UTEP, Sam Houston State, Montana, Montana State, Eastern Washington, NDSU, SDSU.
Again why would they leave CUSA in what would amount to a lateral move now?
Wyoming USU Reno UNM aren't moving the needle on any media deal.
MWC current deal roughly 3 million. CUSA is 750k I believe.
That MWC deal was with Boise's name attached to it and three big markets in CSU/SDSU/FRESNO.
No way they get that again..
Now the FCS schools are an option but again how much are you getting by adding them? Maybe you get a deal around 1.5 ?
I don't know.
Plus you have to meet certain stadium size/attendance numbers to move FBS I thought. Does ECU meet them?
You could be right. Maybe MWC absorbs those schools and try and stand firm.
I'm not sure the logistics of it all.
All comes down to money. Investment and return.
I believe Stadium size was removed.
This from a Reno beat writer. Fair amount of conjecture here. Not sure if it answers your question or not.
There's also the financial aspect. The Pac-12 is on the hook for $43 million in poaching fees paid to the MW for taking four schools while those departments owe roughly $18 million each in exit fees to the MW, which the Pac-12 could help pay a part or all of. The Pac-12 would owe the MW an additional $12 million to add one more school from that conference and $22.5 million to add two. That's before the $18 million each in exit fees. If the Pac-12 picks up the tab on the exit fees, that'd be an additional $58.5 million on top of the $115 million for the first four schools. That price tag could deter the Pac-12 from taking both UNLV and Nevada.
Pac-12 insider John Canzano reported over the weekend the conference prefers to settle on ninemembers for scheduling purposes. The initial reporting has the Pac-12 now looking to the American Athletic Conference to fill out the rest of its conference with Tulane, Memphis and Texas-San Antonio among the top candidates. While the rebuilt Pac-12 getting an automatic bid into the College Football Playoff isn't going to happen, poaching the top of the MW and AAC would pave a much easier path into the CFP on an annual basis, so the Pac-12 would be incentivized to inflict some damage on the AAC with it final additions rather than continue to take from the MW.
Canzano reported the last additions to the Pac-12 are expected to happen by the end of the calendar year with the three military schools (Air Force, Army and Navy) a potential option for the Pac-12 to maximize its media-rights contract, adding, "If UNLV and Air Force don’t land in the Pac-12, I’ll bet the American Athletic Conference would take them both. I’m told there has already been contact between those sides."
I found a link on your forum to a pdf of the agreement. You should be able to go back and find it. I don't remember which post it was in.
Per my interpretation of the agreement the PAC will have to pay the withdrawal fees at this point regardless if the MWC dissolves. The wording is very specific. Had the MWC dissolved prior to the 4 schools accepting then there would have been no withdrawal fees. But, the MWC did not dissolve prior to the MWC schools accepting the invitation to the PAC therefore you are obligated to pay those withdrawal fees.
Here is the real kicker which I hadn't read before. You've got 30 days to pay the withdrawal fee.
"Any Withdrawal Fee which becomes payable by the Pac-12
pursuant to clause (A) of Section 7.01 shall be due and payable to MWC in full in accordance with
the terms of Section 2.03 no later than 30 days following the date each such Accepting MWC
Member Institution accepts, or announces that it will accept, such offer."
Also, regarding the 30 days to make the payments there is another section in the Agreement which states that any late payments by the PAC will accrue interest compounded daily.
LOL. Disentangle itself from Reno..
So if we wait 30 days from Saturday, the 8 left get a cool roughly 5 million in cash guaranteed... then conference dissolves and everyone else goes their own ways... maybe the ones left behind get kicked a negotiated portion of a buyout as payout for NCAA tournament etc to keep them from real litigation...
shit I can't find it again in that cesspool. But the section you quote - you sure "withdrawal fee" isn't "poaching fee"? Everything I read on the exit fees call them exit fees. Not withdrawal fees. Need the document....
I wish I could get you the document. All I have is a PDF on my hard drive. I'm ****ing clueless as how to put that on this forum.
SCHEDULE 7 WITHDRAWAL FEE The Pac-12 Parties shall pay MWC a Withdrawal Fee in accordance with this Schedule 7 for each Accepting MWC Member Institution during the Withdrawal Fee Period. For purposes of illustration, and not limitation, the “Aggregate Withdrawal Fee” column represents the aggregate Withdrawal Fee payable by the Pac-12 Parties to MWC relative to the total number of Accepting MWC Member Institutions during the Withdrawal Fee Period. Accepting MWC Member Institutions Withdrawal Fee Aggregate Withdrawal Fees Accepting MWC Member
Institution #1 $10,000,000 $10,000,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #2 $10,500,000 $20,500,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #3 $11,000,000 $31,500,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #4 $11,500,000 $43,000,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #5 $12,000,000 $55,000,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #6 $12,500,000 $67,500,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #7 $13,000,000 $80,500,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #8 $13,500,000 $94,000,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #9 $14,000,000 $108,000,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #10 $14,500,000 $122,500,000
Accepting MWC Member Institution #11 $15,000,000 $137,500,000
Good job buddy. So Withdrawal fee = Poaching fee. Quit scaring me.
We are going to be in the money. If the four schools announced the same day then yes from that announcement date they have 30 days to pay. We just need the Presidents to tell Gloria to distribute that money to the 8 of us.
Yeah, that name poaching is just a name started on one of these forums. But, yes the PAC owes us that $43 million within 30 days.Good job buddy. So Withdrawal fee = Poaching fee. Quit scaring me.
So wait for that money to be distributed. Then take that money and apply to your exit fee to leave MWC.
🤣
It's like the Beavis and Butthead episode where they each are given a box of candy bars to sell for school money drive. They sit down and start handing each other the same dollar back and forth buying each other's candy bars with the same dollar until they eat it all.
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