IF REMAINING MWC TEAMS WERE SMART
- Thread starter Bullmastiff 1
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One thing. Oregon State do not have Portland market. Portland is a lib city while Corvallis is a conservative school. Not even close. What city in Oregon does OSU have besides Corvallis?
Washington State. Who are you bringing to the table besides Eastern Washington area?
Washington State. Who are you bringing to the table besides Eastern Washington area?
They dont watch OSU games. Eugene have more hippies than Corvallis. No one like the Beavers in Portland.
Lots of WSU grads live in Seattle area... but still I get your point. That's part of why the Big 10 and Big 12 said no thanks. And don't let them kid us, those 2 conferences said no
We just saw this happen with the Pac.
They got down to 2 but held tight and took in all of that money, including NCAAT payouts.
The stark reality of every leftover teams other than maybe UNLV and AFA, is looking at a huge hit for their media contract and a much sh!ttier conference then they have currently.
The should do what the PAC did. Even if it gets down to 2. They have the MW name and a chunk of money to work with. They can try to poach a couple of CUSA teams (starting with NMSU)maybe the best FCS teams and subsidize their losses for a while with the cash coming in with.
They have 2 years to figure it out.
I just don't think that the MW votes to dissolve and to give up all of that money. Always follow the money. The majority of the teams will not get upgraded so I don't see a majority vote
This is probably true. But the result remains the same. They end up in worse conference. Worse TV deal. All be it with a load of cash in hand.
Although how long does the FCS to FBS process take? What are the costs. There are also other provisions correct? Like stadium size or attendance numbers? (Not saying they might not meet them but is a possible hurdle)
Are there costs involved. Could it get done in two years?
Do any of them want to make the jump? There is risk in that as well.
Sean Lewis ceiling is unknown. The fuc(king SDSU future is unknown. CSU is regressing. This program is going backward. Boise is still unknown but by their method of hire and their A$$ attitude with the loyalty. The fact that they are a non ranked team with Jeanty and their large amount of players returning is telling.
Yes, but I also think that unlike the Pac 2, there isn't quite the same coffers pre-existing and didn't they sue to prevent the departing teams from voting to dissolve to avoid paying those fees to them? What I see happening is similar, except the last 2 in plus the other 2 or 3 looking to jump elsewhere keep control of the MWC and vote to dissolve before they announce intent to leave... now there may need to be some heavy under the table assurances from Pac 6 to the last 2 about their inclusion, maybe some financial assistance paid to support dissolution and lost funds. It's complicated but I can see a way in which anyone left out is left out without any real recourse... and part of the Pac 2s legal argument was the other schools withheld the withdrawal during media rights negotiations and it impacted their ability to secure a good enough deal to hold everyone together
After WSU beats them. We have them in 2 weeks down there. Cougs are going to slap them around. And Boise won't get any bigger cut going to the Pac.
SDSU has top basketball program in conference. They were arguably right there with Boise during Rocky Long's tenure.
They have the ability to rebound in football. And that is a massive TV market.
There are 7 teams with votes. And Hawaii is still technically there.
I don't think anyone other than UNLV and AFA have a shot at really upgrading. UNM could go to the CUSA but why do that. It would make more sense for the MW to try to rebuild with CUSA teams or trying to merge. They or the CUSA wouldn't be able to afford the buyouts if they decided to leave without dissolving. If we dissolve why make a lateral move and say no thanks to millions of buyout dollars?
Right now they have 40+ million plus some nice NCAAT money. No reason to just give that up.
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They could rebound. UNLV could rebound after we have Randal Cunningham. Hoyoutw long did it took us. Look at Sean Lewis team now, how long do think they will need? The past SDSU would have jumped on that Cal team yesterday. Not this team.
The schools that are already losing their votes include SDSU, BSU, Fresno State and Colorado State. That leaves only 7 full member schools: Air Force, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, unr, Utah State and Wyoming. It takes 75 percent of the schools to vote to dissolve the conference which works out to be 5.25 schools which is rounded up to 6 schools. In order to dissolve the conference, they would need to get all but one school to agree to leave, and I do not believe that will happen. The MWC will absolutely survive, but it will most likely require them to cannibalize teams from the Sunbelt, Conference USA, AAC or lower level teams from the FCS conferences.
Well gee that makes me feel a whole lot better. The media doesn't know shit. Only the Pac knows.
Or we all don't play ball and they have to compromise their so called lean conference with mediocre product just to actually be a conference... F those guys, grab the best available programs we can ahead of their 6...
There is currently only one ranked team between the MWC and Pac, and I am sure the UNLV President and AD will use that to their advantage. In the past I had absolutely zero trust in the UNLV President and AD, but I feel differently about these two and trust we will come out of everything in good shape!
I like this. So if/when we offer, and if this "package deal" with UNR is indeed not an issue, who else should we snag? Wyoming? AF? UNR? SJSU?
Who can the MWC entice? Our media deal is worse than what AAC is getting I believe. So no heavy hitters like Memphis. Plus we could run into some buyout issues trying to poach CUSA. But that's probably where we would have to look. Or the Sun Belt.
NMSU? UTSA? Liberty? Texas State (feels like up and coming program) LA Tech?
Why would anybody leave the AAC if their media deal is better..?
AAC current media deal is 7 million per school. MWC is around 5.
Why would anybody leave for less money?
You're then looking at CUSA and Sun Belt.
MWC might survive but it's no longer top dog in terms of G5 conferences.
New Pac likely better. AAC probably better top to bottom.
There might still be a MWC but it will be a shell of itself.
That’s the most logical approach I’ve heard. The PAC needs to add teams. They don’t want the entire MWC but also don’t want to pay large buyouts plus some teams they may want may not have the resources to pay an exit fee (UNLV). Their current approach makes sense in that it begins to tip the MWC over (to Bull’s point). If the remaining members follow a logical path they will likely disband the conf since it is likely in their best interest. If that happens then the PAC can’t take whoever they like. If it doesn’t they still have options of other teams including any from the ACC if it eventually breaks up. We just need to keep winning, building the brand, being in the top 25 and playoff convos to continue making ourselves more and more attractive. Thank God for Odom or UNLV would be toast.
I think the AFA would pick the PAC over the AAC. The payout is probably better, plus travel is much nicer. Sure, they have to play the other academies anyway, but that is 1 east coast trip a season. Much tougher to do with 6-7 trips a season.
Does this whole mess affect Odom? Will he want to stay after this year if this doesn't get resolved in a positive way?
In 2021 AF almost made the jump to the AAC. It would have given them more TX exposure. There is a huge AF alumni fan base in TX that wanted that to happen. What caught me by surprise was that the local Colorado Springs alumni and businesses put pressure on them to stay in the MWC and one of the reasons was New Mexico. I don't get that one but it is what they were saying. With the way the MWC sits right now I have a feeling the pressure on the other side will win out. AF more than likely ends up in the AAC. More money and will appease their TX support groups. They'll have travel issues but getting to Pullman and Corvallis isn't any more of a distance than a lot of other AAC schools.
I would like for us to go the AAC route. Look at where we have been getting a lot of star athletes. A lot of them from the South East and Texas. We are practically part of Southern California now so we will always draw well from that area. How many recruits do we get out of Colorado and Idaho. Very few so exposure there isn't going to help us. And, now that we are winning we are doing really well in Las Vegas in keeping some good talent. By going East we will be getting a lot more exposure in those earlier day time slots especially with ESPN. I would love to stay West with the PAC but last I looked we weren't invited.
Just my opinion as usual.
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If the PAC wants them absolutely.
However they may not. They already got a team in Colorado with CSU. AFA is unique.
Personally if it was me, in an either or scenario I would grab USU over AFA to get into Utah market.
100% it does.
I don't think he's a money chaser. I think he would only leave for a few select schools.
Now with this nonsense, I say the list of jobs he would leave for probably grew.
Last year when asked he specifically said he has never been one to chase a job for a paycheck.
Honestly I don't think it affects him because his decision isn't something we can control. He's either going to be around at least another year or he's not and we don't control that and the conference affiliation doesn't control that. Next year will be the same teams and same conference still. After that, maybe we've had an incredible 2 seasons and don't need a Pac 2 invite..
Dude...
Read that post again.
I clearly said I don't think he's a money chaser. I also said there was a small list of jobs he might have left for if they came open before all this. Call them dream jobs even.
I simply think if there is upheaval and uncertainty surrounding the conference he may be more open to leaving.
Long term there's so many moving pieces it's impossible to figure out what's going to happen. So much will depend on whether or not the ACC survives as those rats try and abandon that ship.
My gut tells me that the new PAC wanted to get into the biggest markets they could from the MWC and they're hoping that CSU's reach is deeper into the Denver (#17 Nielson/#32 FCC market) then realistically it is right now. San Diego State (#30/#51) and Fresno-Visalia (#52/#72) are some of the larger western markets with no competing professional franchises--so in theory, better market penetration. And they've been pretty consistently good over the past 5 years in football (SDSU has been very good in basketball). Boise is a pick not for market size (#97/NR), but for their sports acumen. Historically been a good to excellent football program who play bigger teams on the road and perform and a consistently good to very good hoops program.
So, if that's their plan, then the next 2 teams should be Memphis (#50/#26) and one of the Texas schools (UTSA (#31/#45), Rice (#6/#15), North Texas (#5/#12) from the AAC with the undersanding that your Texas market penetration for those schools is not going to be as good (the AAC is only 10 million withdrawal fee with 2 years notice, whereas MWC schools are 17 million + 10 million to go to the PAC). I would also not be surprised to see Tulane (#52/#31) or South Florida (#31/#51) taken instead---and maybe more than 2 as they are pretty cheap in comparison.
The Vegas market is not bad (#40/NR) but it's very comparable to UAB (#46/40) and with probably lower market penetration because of how many transplants we have and the pro franchises--while Birmingham is going to have a lot of Bama and Auburn fans they still will have more eyes on college football TV sets--Hell a terrible UAB team that was almost cut for cost over 5 years has outdrawn UNLV significantly.
While we're putting together a good resume over the last 2 years in football our recent history is not good. Our basketball program right now is a hair above average. We have a very nice stadium--but LVCVA doesn't care about UNLV. If they can book a title game and bring in 30-40k people to the strip they will do that every time. They aren't going to turn away the business to give UNLV any bargaining chips.
I think our window is small, but still open. We need to start raising money to pay the 18 million buy out and move forward understanding that we either pay that or we actually get left behind for forever. I think the ACC court cases settling will determine when the next big reshuffling occurs. We can't operate under the assumption that anyone is going to help us with the exit fees--hell, it's even unclear how much the PAC2 is going to help the currently departing programs.
My gut tells me that the new PAC wanted to get into the biggest markets they could from the MWC and they're hoping that CSU's reach is deeper into the Denver (#17 Nielson/#32 FCC market) then realistically it is right now. San Diego State (#30/#51) and Fresno-Visalia (#52/#72) are some of the larger western markets with no competing professional franchises--so in theory, better market penetration. And they've been pretty consistently good over the past 5 years in football (SDSU has been very good in basketball). Boise is a pick not for market size (#97/NR), but for their sports acumen. Historically been a good to excellent football program who play bigger teams on the road and perform and a consistently good to very good hoops program.
So, if that's their plan, then the next 2 teams should be Memphis (#50/#26) and one of the Texas schools (UTSA (#31/#45), Rice (#6/#15), North Texas (#5/#12) from the AAC with the undersanding that your Texas market penetration for those schools is not going to be as good (the AAC is only 10 million withdrawal fee with 2 years notice, whereas MWC schools are 17 million + 10 million to go to the PAC). I would also not be surprised to see Tulane (#52/#31) or South Florida (#31/#51) taken instead---and maybe more than 2 as they are pretty cheap in comparison.
The Vegas market is not bad (#40/NR) but it's very comparable to UAB (#46/40) and with probably lower market penetration because of how many transplants we have and the pro franchises--while Birmingham is going to have a lot of Bama and Auburn fans they still will have more eyes on college football TV sets--Hell a terrible UAB team that was almost cut for cost over 5 years has outdrawn UNLV significantly.
While we're putting together a good resume over the last 2 years in football our recent history is not good. Our basketball program right now is a hair above average. We have a very nice stadium--but LVCVA doesn't care about UNLV. If they can book a title game and bring in 30-40k people to the strip they will do that every time. They aren't going to turn away the business to give UNLV any bargaining chips.
I think our window is small, but still open. We need to start raising money to pay the 18 million buy out and move forward understanding that we either pay that or we actually get left behind for forever. I think the ACC court cases settling will determine when the next big reshuffling occurs. We can't operate under the assumption that anyone is going to help us with the exit fees--hell, it's even unclear how much the PAC2 is going to help the currently departing programs.
That CSU reach into the Denver market is just perception. I live in Colorado and only a CSU-RAM watches CSU-RAM games only if they follow sports. There are so many colleges and universities in Colorado it's even foolish to think that even the Univ. of Colorado owns the market. Most Coloradoans follow their professional sports and don't give a lot of attention to college sports.
I agree 100%--Broncos/Avs/Nuggets are the true kings of Colorado sports. Hell, even the period under Sonny Lubick where CSU was consistently good, Colorado was consistently better--and Colorado probably has the best penetration into the Denver market--at least significantly greater than CSU--and they're still almost doubling the undgraduate degrees given out every year.
But if you're trying to get media rights contracts, having a small window into a big market is usually worth a lot more than a big window into a very small market--like in Boise for example. Hell, I'd be money on there being more BYU fans in Idaho than Boise State fans haha.
I like your point about fundraising to pay the exit fee. We don't know to what extent the Pac-2 will help with the exit fees - this is a huge key for all involved. But whether it's $17M or $10M or whatever, seems like a targeted campaign to raise the money would have appeal. I don't donate much to anything, and really don't like giving money for unknown uses. If approached with hey - we need $XM to pay this particular fee, a one-time commitment, then I might get the checkbook out.
On another note, I think the MW has 4 years to figure things out. For the next 2 years you are still a 12-team conference. 7/1/26 is when the 2-year grace period would kick in. In my understanding anyway. So much as I didn't like what the Pac just did, at least it gives the MW plenty of notice and time to retrench.
