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CSU/USU suing MW over exit fees

The argument you will hear is they took the best teams and therfore weakened your brand, which arguably they did. But that logic doesn't account for what you just spelled out and the fact that you're banking on the bottom half- CSU, OSU, USU, SDSU and possibly Fresno improve beyond mediocre to the point that they're able to challenge Boise. WSU just entered a death spiral that'll likely lead to mediocrity over challenging Boise. That's the perception you're fighting, especially if you enter into the new conference (2026 season) and 4 of the teams you're taking all finish sub .500 again next year, along with WSU taking a nose dive...

This is true, but now apply it to the MWC.

The teams they took have won every conference title since 2016 except the Covid year of 2020. (SJSU). Boise, Fresno, USU and SDSU.
 
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PACs idea of poaching the best MWC teams was the right approach (create the strongest G5 possible) but the execution was piss poor, allowing ego to dictate decisions. They should have made a sweetheart deal for UNLV and SJSU as well, and also allow for free or low-cost exit fees if invited to a P4. Every G5 school goal is to get a P4 invite and making it easy to make the leap only incentivizes the schools to invest more in their programs. Then as you said also go after the top AAC schools and any potential additions from an ACC breakup. You’d then have a very competitive conference potentially challenging B12 status. Instead their egos ruled the day and now they’re chasing small market teams that will only dilute their status. MWC is in that same boat but the difference is the PAC put themselves in that situation. Idiots.
 
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You’re right… a lot to be settled. I’m sure the “PAC” fans are happy… they feel like they’re somehow in the “cool kids” club, which just isn’t the case. They finally got invited to the party, paid the cover charge, and found out that there’s no chics there, and now their rationalizing.

As far as cutting out fat goes… they started out a solid 6 teams with good markets (compared to the MW)… then they added Utah State (who doesn’t move the needle media market wise) and have to add another still to even be a conference. Then they give Gonzaga a full share and I think I read something where teams get to keep their NCAA tourney credits as well.

So from a standpoint of cutting fat, I’m not so sure they have.

You had your original 6 and let’s just say they were all going to be pulling relatively equal weight… obviously you have Boise at the top and CSU at the bottom, but on balance you feel that everyone is equal.

Then you add Utah State… are they really more of a draw than Wyoming, UNM, or UNR? I’d say not by any measurable amount during any five year stretch. So I’d say you just diluted your conference by about 15%.

Then you add Gonzaga… good move, but at what price? When football accounts for 80% of media valuation, does Gonzaga’s value in basketball make up for not playing football? And if it is true that they’d get to keep their NCAA credits or at least the lion share, then hasn’t that diluted your per team distributions even more? It’s kind of a wild card but I’d suspect it ends up costing them all on a per team distribution level.

Now add your 8th team… there’s nobody left and whoever it is will be a much larger drag than any lower tier MW team has been.

So now 25% of your teams in football
In terms of media fat, They left SJSU, UNM, Reno. Wyoming probably isn't great in terms of media, Hawaii is so so. Utah State is probably middle of the pack in terms of media in thencireent MW. Maybe bottom third. So yes if Utah State is their worst, we have 4-5 teams lower than their worst. They may add a team worst than our worst, but even if they do they are doing better. Especially given that they took 4 of our best 6. Utah is third tier in that state, but they have done decent well in the past in terms of attendance of that is any indication. Certainly better than Reno, SJSU, and UNM in football.
I think that teams keep half of the tournament credits and bowl revenue in the new PAC. That helps the bottom line. Gonzaga can still contribute to the conference considering their pedigree. Maybe not earn the rest of their share but definitely.
Not sure why you think CSU is at the bottom. They have done well in media and attendance.
 
If we look back 3 years from now and 1. we are in a sub-par MWC and 2. the PAC is the top G5 conference and 3. the P4 are similar to where they are now we will be very sorry we weren't included in the new PAC. But if we are in a re-structure B 12 and it is still considered a power conference we 'll be deliriously happy looking at Harper as a genius. IMO, the entire gambit will depend on our getting in a P4 conference or not.
 
If we look back 3 years from now and 1. we are in a sub-par MWC and 2. the PAC is the top G5 conference and 3. the P4 are similar to where they are now we will be very sorry we weren't included in the new PAC. But if we are in a re-structure B 12 and it is still considered a power conference we 'll be deliriously happy looking at Harper as a genius. IMO, the entire gambit will depend on our getting in a P4 conference or not.
3 years isn't enough time. Big 12 probably isn't adding teams before 2030. Invite might be on table but we won't be playing in it yet in 3 years. I think the better argument will be is in 3 yrs, are we dominating the conference in multiple sports winning titles, and B is Boise being challenged by anyone in the new Pac.. if the first is yes and second no, then we made a better decision. If the answer for both is no or no, yes, then we didn't. The whole point is we need our premier programs to dominate regularly in the new conference.
 
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If we look back 3 years from now and 1. we are in a sub-par MWC and 2. the PAC is the top G5 conference and 3. the P4 are similar to where they are now we will be very sorry we weren't included in the new PAC. But if we are in a re-structure B 12 and it is still considered a power conference we 'll be deliriously happy looking at Harper as a genius. IMO, the entire gambit will depend on our getting in a P4 conference or not.
They've already said, b12, they won't be adding more schools until their next media contract in 6 years. The only way we can make it happen is to get an invite for zero to 1/4 media revenue. Otherwise, what does it give them to add us before that next media deal as it just dilutes the revenue from existing schools. Our men's basketball is just for giggles so there is no incentive there.
 
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They've already said, b12, they won't be adding more schools until their next media contract in 6 years. The only way we can make it happen is to get an invite for zero to 1/4 media revenue. Otherwise, what does it give them to add us before that next media deal as it just dilutes the revenue from existing schools. Our men's basketball is just for giggles so there is no incentive there.

You 100% take a reduced share if given the chance.
 
After a conversation with @Bullmastiff 1, I took the time to make a spread sheet based on total wins. Now, we know total wins is not the only metric that they are using. They're going off of potential value (witch craft magic), market area, viewership, and current market value. This is not including the covid year. But, here are the last three years of wins. Happy to include 2024 on request.

Year202120222023
Total wins
Air Force10–3 (6–2 MW)10–3 (5–3 MW)9–4 (5–3 MW)29
Wyoming7–6 (2–6 MW)7–6 (5–3 MW)9–4 (5–3 MW)23
San Jose State5–7 (3–5 MW)7–5 (5–3 MW)7–6 (6–2 MW)19
UNLV2–10 (2–6 MW)5–7 (3–5 MW)9–5 (6–2 MW)16
Hawai'i6–7 (3–5 MW)3–10 (2–6 MW)5–8 (3–5 MW)14
reno8–5 (5–3 MW)2–10 (0–8 MW)2–10 (2–6 MW)12
New Mexico3–9 (1–7 MW)2–10 (0–8 MW)4–8 (2–6 MW)9
MW Total122
Fresno State10–3 (6–2 MW)#24 10–4 (7–1 MW)9–4 (4–4 MW)29
Boise State7–5 (5–3 MW)10–4 (8–0 MW) 8–6 (6–2 MW)25
Utah State#24 11–3 (6–2 MW)6–7 (5–3 MW)6–7 (4–4 MW)23
San Diego State#25 12–2 (7–1 MW)7–6 (5–3 MW)4–8 (2–6 MW)23
Colorado State3–9 (2–6 MW)3–9 (3–5 MW)5–7 (3–5 MW)11
Pac total111

Any one notice the win total fraud amongst the pac group? If I were Air Force or Wyoming, I'd be really mad. Lets put it this way. In that same span of time, UTEP had more wins than CSU.

I do have the totals going back to 2018 ready (minus covid). I didn't include 2024, because that was an unknown when they started talking this last July.
 
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Apple TV offered the remaining PAC schools after USC/UCLA left 23 million per school.

That's Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, ASU, UofA, Colorado, Utah, Washington State and Oregon State.

You're replacing those first 8 schools with Boise, SDSU, Fresno, USU, CSU and Gonzaga.

Not sure if that helps with speculation/forming an opinion on future PAC media deal or not.
Just get a deal with Netflix..

It was glorious watching Beyoncé halftime show..

UNLV is not forward thinking at all.
 
Would you not gave pursued Tulane, UTSA, USF, and Memphis, to undercut the AAC and maximize the chance of the MWC winner getting the autobid each year? Would you not have pursued Gonzaga and St Marys to undercut the WCC in basketball, if they were available at reasonable percentages, not the condition the pac gave them? Maybe, UC Davis and GCU would be a stretch.
I started thinking on this. If I were, let's say Memphis and Tulane. If trying to make the Playoff is a consideration, that means they have to play and beat BSU. My Cougs could also be in the mix. Do they really want that? So it comes down to the illusive Pac-X media contract vs exit fees, travel, etc.

And UNLV folks, I hadn't realized that our Kyle Williams came from UNLV. Thanks - hope he catches 3 TD's tomorrow.

 
3 years isn't enough time. Big 12 probably isn't adding teams before 2030. Invite might be on table but we won't be playing in it yet in 3 years. I think the better argument will be is in 3 yrs, are we dominating the conference in multiple sports winning titles, and B is Boise being challenged by anyone in the new Pac.. if the first is yes and second no, then we made a better decision. If the answer for both is no or no, yes, then we didn't. The whole point is we need our premier programs to dominate regularly in the new conference.
I understand the media contract timing and I hear what the Big 12 has said. But it looks to me that starting in the 4th year we will most likely look back and think being in the "MWC light" was a bad move. And each year it goes on will make it worse. Our home schedule will suck ( and we will play our OOC P4 games away with only a very occasional exceptions) , we'll lose out on CFP probabilities to a PAC with a similar OOC schedule because their conference schedule will be much more compelling, we'll bring in considerably less media $$ (undetermined based on future contracts and legal issues) and each year we'll look less and less desirable compared to our PAC competitors.
 
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After a conversation with @Bullmastiff 1, I took the time to make a spread sheet based on total wins. Now, we know total wins is not the only metric that they are using. They're going off of potential value (witch craft magic), market area, viewership, and current market value. This is not including the covid year. But, here are the last three years of wins. Happy to include 2024 on request.

Year202120222023
Total wins
Air Force10–3 (6–2 MW)10–3 (5–3 MW)9–4 (5–3 MW)29
Wyoming7–6 (2–6 MW)7–6 (5–3 MW)9–4 (5–3 MW)23
San Jose State5–7 (3–5 MW)7–5 (5–3 MW)7–6 (6–2 MW)19
UNLV2–10 (2–6 MW)5–7 (3–5 MW)9–5 (6–2 MW)16
Hawai'i6–7 (3–5 MW)3–10 (2–6 MW)5–8 (3–5 MW)14
reno8–5 (5–3 MW)2–10 (0–8 MW)2–10 (2–6 MW)12
New Mexico3–9 (1–7 MW)2–10 (0–8 MW)4–8 (2–6 MW)9
MW Total122
Fresno State10–3 (6–2 MW)#24 10–4 (7–1 MW)9–4 (4–4 MW)29
Boise State7–5 (5–3 MW)10–4 (8–0 MW) 8–6 (6–2 MW)25
Utah State#24 11–3 (6–2 MW)6–7 (5–3 MW)6–7 (4–4 MW)23
San Diego State#25 12–2 (7–1 MW)7–6 (5–3 MW)4–8 (2–6 MW)23
Colorado State3–9 (2–6 MW)3–9 (3–5 MW)5–7 (3–5 MW)11
Pac total82

Any one notice the win total fraud amongst the pac group? If I were Air Force or Wyoming, I'd be really mad. I do have the totals going back to 2018 ready (minus covid). I didn't include 2024, because that was an unknown when they started talking this last July.
Shouldn't 82 be 111?
After a conversation with @Bullmastiff 1, I took the time to make a spread sheet based on total wins. Now, we know total wins is not the only metric that they are using. They're going off of potential value (witch craft magic), market area, viewership, and current market value. This is not including the covid year. But, here are the last three years of wins. Happy to include 2024 on request.
 
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Wait - all along I have thought that Scrub was heralded as the voice of knowledge and reason on this site. :)
I assure you..He is not.
He lost me at that part about "reason". Getting thrown out of a Volleyball game for twerking on fans or players or whatever the hell he was doing would disqualify you from having any "reason". 🤣
 
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I understand the media contract timing and I hear what the Big 12 has said. But it looks to me that starting in the 4th year we will most likely look back and think being in the "MWC light" was a bad move. And each year it goes on will make it worse. Our home schedule will suck ( and we will play our OOC P4 games away with only a very occasional exceptions) , we'll lose out on CFP probabilities to a PAC with a similar OOC schedule because their conference schedule will be much more compelling, we'll bring in considerably less media $$ (undetermined based on future contracts and legal issues) and each year we'll look less and less desirable compared to our PAC competitors.
Hate to break it, but we're a G5 and most our OOC games will be road games against P4 competition. UCLA is kind of a standalone in that they needed opponents and we got a home and home scheduled a while ago when we weren't good. We aren't going to bring in good OOC teams because those teams don't travel for away games.
 
Hate to break it, but we're a G5 and most our OOC games will be road games against P4 competition. UCLA is kind of a standalone in that they needed opponents and we got a home and home scheduled a while ago when we weren't good. We aren't going to bring in good OOC teams because those teams don't travel for away games.
If you ask any Syracuse fan today, they would love a home-home with UNLV. Perspectives are changing with UNLV as a football school. Man, that hurts as I typed it.
 
Wait - all along I have thought that Scrub was heralded as the voice of knowledge and reason on this site. :)
I am the all knowing seeing eye of the internet.

Christmas football game was streamed for the first time on Netflix. It was subtitled, and Beyoncé was schilling her album from last year singing Dolly pardon’s Jolene.


And I hate Beyoncé. That bitch shares the same birthday with me
 
I am the all knowing seeing eye of the internet.

Christmas football game was streamed for the first time on Netflix. It was subtitled, and Beyoncé was schilling her album from last year singing Dolly pardon’s Jolene.


And I hate Beyoncé. That bitch shares the same birthday with me

Whose Dolly pardon?

Never mind.
 
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In terms of media fat, They left SJSU, UNM, Reno. Wyoming probably isn't great in terms of media, Hawaii is so so. Utah State is probably middle of the pack in terms of media in thencireent MW. Maybe bottom third. So yes if Utah State is their worst, we have 4-5 teams lower than their worst. They may add a team worst than our worst, but even if they do they are doing better. Especially given that they took 4 of our best 6. Utah is third tier in that state, but they have done decent well in the past in terms of attendance of that is any indication. Certainly better than Reno, SJSU, and UNM in football.
I think that teams keep half of the tournament credits and bowl revenue in the new PAC. That helps the bottom line. Gonzaga can still contribute to the conference considering their pedigree. Maybe not earn the rest of their share but definitely.
Not sure why you think CSU is at the bottom. They have done well in media and attendance.
Of the first 6, I ranked CSU lowest, but maybe it’s Fresno State? No real point was being made there other than saying that the overall balance was fairly equal with Boise being on top and CSU or Fresno being at the bottom of that group.

If you look at attendance numbers over the last couple years… SDSU, USU, SJSU, UNM, and UNR have all averaged 16,000-18,300 per home game. Hawaii is the bottom outlier at about 13,000.

Of that group I’d toss out SDSU as being a “bottom feeder” because their market IS better and their “brand” is “ok”.

The others all feel about the same to me and any single one of them COULD have a good season and boost those numbers. So if you’re gonna call UNM, SJSU, and UNR “fat”, you gotta include USU as “fat” as well.

I’m not including Hawaii on that list because they were only a partial member and were being paid as such.

So USU is “fat” even though they could have a good season, just like the others, and you have to add another team in ALL sports, who is gonna be PURE FAT.

That makes 25% of your teams “fat”, that you were, oh by the way, trying to shed. I think Gonzaga at a full share is actually a drag on overall revenue, but that’s harder to quantify, so illyleave them out of the equation.

Saying they took our four best markets/teams (of which UNLV would actually be one) is irrelevant to my point. I’m not arguing the PAC isn’t better, I’m arguing they’re worse off than what they would be had a merger taken place.

In a new MW/PAC with 14 teams you’d have those same 4 as “fat”, which is about 28%. I think WYO is kind of neutral and Hawaii is also kind of neutral because their market is decent and they’re only getting a partial share. But if you include those two and say the new conference has 6 “fat” teams you’re up to 42% vs 25% fat.

Admittedly 17% is a pretty decent difference… it’s the difference between $5 mil per year and $5.85 mil per year.

But now look at the cost…

The final cost remains to be seen, but it’s going to be a decent amount, even after things likely get negotiated down. Even if it gets negotiated down to a third it takes 7 years to overcome the difference. And that doesn’t include any poaching fees that are ultimately paid by the PAC 2.

Now look at a comparison of what the new PAC would look like versus a new PAC/MW conference. That conference would be far and away the best G5 conference and I would think more valuable on a per team basis.

Add to that the fact that you could have structured the payouts of that new conference as such to reward the better teams, which would easily overcome any difference in who is “fat” and who is not.

Again, it’s neither here nor there at this point, and there’s a lot still to play out. But it definitely feels like a “cut off your nose to spite your face” situation to me.
 
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Of the first 6, I ranked CSU lowest, but maybe it’s Fresno State? No real point was being made there other than saying that the overall balance was fairly equal with Boise being on top and CSU or Fresno being at the bottom of that group.

If you look at attendance numbers over the last couple years… SDSU, USU, SJSU, UNM, and UNR have all averaged 16,000-18,300 per home game. Hawaii is the bottom outlier at about 13,000.

Of that group I’d toss out SDSU as being a “bottom feeder” because their market IS better and their “brand” is “ok”.

The others all feel about the same to me and any single one of them COULD have a good season and boost those numbers. So if you’re gonna call UNM, SJSU, and UNR “fat”, you gotta include USU as “fat” as well.

I’m not including Hawaii on that list because they were only a partial member and were being paid as such.

So USU is “fat” even though they could have a good season, just like the others, and you have to add another team in ALL sports, who is gonna be PURE FAT.

That makes 25% of your teams “fat”, that you were, oh by the way, trying to shed. I think Gonzaga at a full share is actually a drag on overall revenue, but that’s harder to quantify, so illyleave them out of the equation.

Saying they took our four best markets/teams (of which UNLV would actually be one) is irrelevant to my point. I’m not arguing the PAC isn’t better, I’m arguing they’re worse off than what they would be had a merger taken place.

In a new MW/PAC with 14 teams you’d have those same 4 as “fat”, which is about 28%. I think WYO is kind of neutral and Hawaii is also kind of neutral because their market is decent and they’re only getting a partial share. But if you include those two and say the new conference has 6 “fat” teams you’re up to 42% vs 25% fat.

Admittedly 17% is a pretty decent difference… it’s the difference between $5 mil per year and $5.85 mil per year.

But now look at the cost…

The final cost remains to be seen, but it’s going to be a decent amount, even after things likely get negotiated down. Even if it gets negotiated down to a third it takes 7 years to overcome the difference. And that doesn’t include any poaching fees that are ultimately paid by the PAC 2.

Now look at a comparison of what the new PAC would look like versus a new PAC/MW conference. That conference would be far and away the best G5 conference and I would think more valuable on a per team basis.

Add to that the fact that you could have structured the payouts of that new conference as such to reward the better teams, which would easily overcome any difference in who is “fat” and who is not.

Again, it’s neither here nor there at this point, and there’s a lot still to play out. But it definitely feels like a “cut off your nose to spite your face” situation to me.
314kcd.jpg
 
SJSU's attendance numbers are puzzling. Its true that they averaged 16,058 for home games this season. But just two years ago they were at 23,970. By comparison SDSU was at 24,770 for this season, but just 2 years ago they were at 29,892.

BUT despite what both schools have averaged this season, the 5 year averages point to SJSU adding 2.51% to their average attendance, which is almost similar to the percentage of people that SDSU lost (-2.28%).

It might have to do with the exodus of people who are being priced out of California. Except Fresno's numbers have only gone up. Their attendance is up 15.69% over the last 5 years.
 

The teams leaving for the PAC have won every single conference title since 2012 except the Covid year with SJSU. Every single one.
 
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