Assuming Hawaii gets done..Then what?

[Bullmastiff 1]

say they are worth 10 million a piece right now to make it simple. They have 8 member getting full share currently. 80 mil.

Add a Texas state which I don't think is worth more than 750k right now. Honestly I would be surprised if they are worth 500k. They have had some of the worst viewership than any other program, even if those numbers aren't terrible accurate. They are worth less than most of their current SBC teams that have the same issues.

80.75 Mil / 9 teams= 8.9mill per team.

I think UNLV could be worth as much as 8 mill themselves. I mean we are expected to get about 5 mil as a conference in the MW, with the majority of those teams likely worth less than that individually. So some team has to be pulling up that average. It is UNLV and maybe AFA.

88/9= 9.7 mil per team

There's my math, I even showed my work like a good boy!

That is 800k, nearly a million dollars. if we are worth 10 mil which we could be that is an even mill.

I think easily some teams in the current PAC are worth more than 10. I think the 2 PAC leftovers could be worth as much as 15. Boise is probably over 10 right now.

I think USU is closer to 5, the mean of the old MW.

If current PAC deal is 64 million per year and evenly dispersed.

64 million divided by 8 is an 8 million AAV.

if UNLV is added with a 10 million dollar valuation..

74 million divided by 9 schools now.

8.22 million AAV.

Even at 10 million dollar valuation for UNLV the PAC deal only would bump up 200k by adding them.

That's peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

So straight up, you think it was a good thing that we signed the GOR? Because that is my biggest gripe and you contest everything I say ( I kid, kinda)

How in the hell did signing the GOR help UNLV right now?

No I don't think it was wise. I've never said I thought signing it was good.

I've said not shelling out millions of dollars to join the PAC might have been the right call depending on what THE PAC media rights deal comes in at.

 

[RebelinWA]

It's going to be totally irrelevant and totally different by 2031 and likely way before then. Which is why this screaming at the sky about being in some semi-sorta-not as good G conference instead of the PAC is ridiculous nonsense. I think our AD realizes this, as well.

Exactly. How many growth spurts has this city seen in in the last two decades? Even in the last 5 years, the city continues to grow. I believe by the time we hit 2031, our media market is going to continue to grow in value.

 

[InZoneU]

Agreed!

The same folks want to “howl at the wind” about NIL and recruiting too. It is what it is and all of it happens way above anyone’s pay grade on rebelnet!

I think with Harper and the coaches we now have in football and both basketball teams are capable of making do.

UNLV will adapt or die to the environment of NIL, recruiting and conference realignment in college sports, period!

Win games. In what is slowly becoming the most dynamic sports capital market in the country. The rest will follow organically, Every CFB fan East of the Mississippi would drool over an annual away day trip to Vegas.

 

[rebel5280]

Win games. In what is slowly becoming the most dynamic sports capital market in the country. The rest will follow organically, Every CFB fan west of the Mississippi would drool over an annual away day trip to Vegas.

Well said MW! Lol

 

[InZoneU]

Well said MW! Lol

I fckd it up and said west of MS instead of east. Had to edit that one lol.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Win games. In what is slowly becoming the most dynamic sports capital market in the country. The rest will follow organically, Every CFB fan East of the Mississippi would drool over an annual away day trip to Vegas.

Initially I thought the decision to stay in MWC was a mistake

But more and more I think spending 10 million dollars to leave the MWC to make possibly only 3 million more in media money would be fiscally irresponsible with more realingment on the horizon.

First three to four years you aren't making a dime you're just paying down debt.

Go dominate the MWC (hopefully) invest into the program and see how it shakes out in another 4 or 5 years

Either you're attractive enough to a power conference or whatever mega league that gets formed or you aren't. Being in the PAC won't change that.

 

[RebelinWA]

Initially I thought the decision to stay in MWC was a mistake

But more and more I think spending 10 million dollars to leave the MWC to make possibly only 3 million more in media money would be fiscally irresponsible with more realingment on the horizon.

First three to four years you aren't making a dime you're just paying down debt.

Go dominate the MWC (hopefully) invest into the program and see how it shakes out in another 4 or 5 years

Either you're attractive enough to a power conference or whatever mega league that gets formed or you aren't. Being in the PAC won't change that.

A natural response to not being in the mega league would be... to merge the left overs of the Pac/MW/ some of CUSA and form a regional conference.

 

[Rebel1986]

I think a reference to Tulane.

I did forge about Tulane, but being I lived in Baton Rouge, I can tell you that Tulane will always be an afterthought to LSU!

 

[Rebel1986]

say they are worth 10 million a piece right now to make it simple. They have 8 member getting full share currently. 80 mil.

Add a Texas state which I don't think is worth more than 750k right now. Honestly I would be surprised if they are worth 500k. They have had some of the worst viewership than any other program, even if those numbers aren't terrible accurate. They are worth less than most of their current SBC teams that have the same issues.

80.75 Mil / 9 teams= 8.9mill per team.

I think UNLV could be worth as much as 8 mill themselves. I mean we are expected to get about 5 mil as a conference in the MW, with the majority of those teams likely worth less than that individually. So some team has to be pulling up that average. It is UNLV and maybe AFA.

88/9= 9.7 mil per team

There's my math, I even showed my work like a good boy!

That is 800k, nearly a million dollars. if we are worth 10 mil which we could be that is an even mill.

I think easily some teams in the current PAC are worth more than 10. I think the 2 PAC leftovers could be worth as much as 15. Boise is probably over 10 right now.

I think USU is closer to 5, the mean of the old MW.

I think Utah State would be near the bottom of the current MWC.

 

[utestream]

I think Utah State would be near the bottom of the current MWC.

As a Ute fan first (as an alumni), and a UNLV fan third (my adopted team for no logical reason), I think Harper has done a fantastic job. I have no inside knowledge, but guess that UNLV with the bonus ends up with about 6 to 7 million dollars per year and the PAC whatever ends up with 8 to 9 million dollars per year. I didn't think it was worth the risk for UNLV to pay a buyout on the MWC contract of 10 million only to end up jumping to the Big 12 by 2030. If that does not work out, they can always jump to the best G5 conference on or before 2032.

However, the decision to do what they did represents betting on themselves. If they joined the Pac-whatever, they may not have had the resources to hire Mullen, fire Kruger, and hire Josh, or the money for NIL. Most Pac-whatever teams are not betting on themselves and instead betting on the strength of their future conference. SDSU has a small football stadium and they became a basketball school, while letting their football fall to mediocrity. They also have terrible leadership. BSU has a crap media market and I cannot see B12 or ACC considering them for both academic reasons, limited upside and limited market. FSU is limited academically and has limited upside, sharing a media market with other things. USU is a school that few in the State of Utah care about, even with a great football coaching hire. Honestly, after Utah and BYU, we view Utah State athletically as comparable to Weber State, UVU, and Salt Lake Community College. I can't see the Big12 or ACC considering schools located in BFE Washington State or Oregon media markets, when the Big 10 has Oregon and Washington. I see the value of OrState and WSU continuing to decrease over time. The Pac-whatever members may be tied at the hip to powerhouse media markets like Logan, Utah and Las Cruces, NM, while the MWC will have Las Vegas, the national following of Air Force, Hawaii for the obsessed bettors, a piece of Texas markets, and some presence in Cali and Arizona, spanning three or four time zones (forget which). I do believe that CSU would be considered for the Big 12 if Colorado leaves, but cannot envision them being considered while Colorado is there.

I think UNLV today is worth 8 to 10 million dollars, but believe that by the time they get accepted in the Big 12 before 2030, they will be worth around 20 million and increasing. I predict that along with UNLV, the Big 12 would consider Memphis and UCONN. I think the ACC would consider Tulane, UC Davis, and even UNLV and Memphis before considering schools such as SDSU, Fresno, OrState, or WSU. What UNLV needs to do? Don't worry about conferences other than the P4, invest, keep winning, and keep marketing.

 

[LVRebel2000]

As a Ute fan first (as an alumni), and a UNLV fan third (my adopted team for no logical reason), I think Harper has done a fantastic job. I have no inside knowledge, but guess that UNLV with the bonus ends up with about 6 to 7 million dollars per year and the PAC whatever ends up with 8 to 9 million dollars per year. I didn't think it was worth the risk for UNLV to pay a buyout on the MWC contract of 10 million only to end up jumping to the Big 12 by 2030. If that does not work out, they can always jump to the best G5 conference on or before 2032.

However, the decision to do what they did represents betting on themselves. If they joined the Pac-whatever, they may not have had the resources to hire Mullen, fire Kruger, and hire Josh, or the money for NIL. Most Pac-whatever teams are not betting on themselves and instead betting on the strength of their future conference. SDSU has a small football stadium and they became a basketball school, while letting their football fall to mediocrity. They also have terrible leadership. BSU has a crap media market and I cannot see B12 or ACC considering them for both academic reasons, limited upside and limited market. FSU is limited academically and has limited upside, sharing a media market with other things. USU is a school that few in the State of Utah care about, even with a great football coaching hire. Honestly, after Utah and BYU, we view Utah State athletically as comparable to Weber State, UVU, and Salt Lake Community College. I can't see the Big12 or ACC considering schools located in BFE Washington State or Oregon media markets, when the Big 10 has Oregon and Washington. I see the value of OrState and WSU continuing to decrease over time. The Pac-whatever members may be tied at the hip to powerhouse media markets like Logan, Utah and Las Cruces, NM, while the MWC will have Las Vegas, the national following of Air Force, Hawaii for the obsessed bettors, a piece of Texas markets, and some presence in Cali and Arizona, spanning three or four time zones (forget which). I do believe that CSU would be considered for the Big 12 if Colorado leaves, but cannot envision them being considered while Colorado is there.

I think UNLV today is worth 8 to 10 million dollars, but believe that by the time they get accepted in the Big 12 before 2030, they will be worth around 20 million and increasing. I predict that along with UNLV, the Big 12 would consider Memphis and UCONN. I think the ACC would consider Tulane, UC Davis, and even UNLV and Memphis before considering schools such as SDSU, Fresno, OrState, or WSU. What UNLV needs to do? Don't worry about conferences other than the P4, invest, keep winning, and keep marketing.

Good point about going to the best G5 conference in 2032 as a possibility. Depending on what happens with the next round of expansion, I would think that both the AAC and the PAC would want to add UNLV if possible, assuming no P4 conferences want to add us.

 

[dcut03]

If current PAC deal is 64 million per year and evenly dispersed.

64 million divided by 8 is an 8 million AAV.

if UNLV is added with a 10 million dollar valuation..

74 million divided by 9 schools now.

8.22 million AAV.

Even at 10 million dollar valuation for UNLV the PAC deal only would bump up 200k by adding them.

That's peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

You are missing the biggest part.

Taking UNLV over a school worth very little. THAT is what creates the big swing in AAV. Not UNLV by itself, it is take UNLV worth 8-10 mil ( for agruments sake) instead of a team probably worth less that 1 million like a Texas State.

So having a full official conference, not having to use a lesser team that really doesn't fit the quality of the rest of the conferense, and bumping the AAV by nearly a million in the process.

That is value, and that would give us leverage

 

[dcut03]

Initially I thought the decision to stay in MWC was a mistake

But more and more I think spending 10 million dollars to leave the MWC to make possibly only 3 million more in media money would be fiscally irresponsible with more realingment on the horizon.

First three to four years you aren't making a dime you're just paying down debt.

Go dominate the MWC (hopefully) invest into the program and see how it shakes out in another 4 or 5 years

Either you're attractive enough to a power conference or whatever mega league that gets formed or you aren't. Being in the PAC won't change that.

As a Ute fan first (as an alumni), and a UNLV fan third (my adopted team for no logical reason), I think Harper has done a fantastic job. I have no inside knowledge, but guess that UNLV with the bonus ends up with about 6 to 7 million dollars per year and the PAC whatever ends up with 8 to 9 million dollars per year. I didn't think it was worth the risk for UNLV to pay a buyout on the MWC contract of 10 million only to end up jumping to the Big 12 by 2030. If that does not work out, they can always jump to the best G5 conference on or before 2032.

However, the decision to do what they did represents betting on themselves. If they joined the Pac-whatever, they may not have had the resources to hire Mullen, fire Kruger, and hire Josh, or the money for NIL. Most Pac-whatever teams are not betting on themselves and instead betting on the strength of their future conference. SDSU has a small football stadium and they became a basketball school, while letting their football fall to mediocrity. They also have terrible leadership. BSU has a crap media market and I cannot see B12 or ACC considering them for both academic reasons, limited upside and limited market. FSU is limited academically and has limited upside, sharing a media market with other things. USU is a school that few in the State of Utah care about, even with a great football coaching hire. Honestly, after Utah and BYU, we view Utah State athletically as comparable to Weber State, UVU, and Salt Lake Community College. I can't see the Big12 or ACC considering schools located in BFE Washington State or Oregon media markets, when the Big 10 has Oregon and Washington. I see the value of OrState and WSU continuing to decrease over time. The Pac-whatever members may be tied at the hip to powerhouse media markets like Logan, Utah and Las Cruces, NM, while the MWC will have Las Vegas, the national following of Air Force, Hawaii for the obsessed bettors, a piece of Texas markets, and some presence in Cali and Arizona, spanning three or four time zones (forget which). I do believe that CSU would be considered for the Big 12 if Colorado leaves, but cannot envision them being considered while Colorado is there.

I think UNLV today is worth 8 to 10 million dollars, but believe that by the time they get accepted in the Big 12 before 2030, they will be worth around 20 million and increasing. I predict that along with UNLV, the Big 12 would consider Memphis and UCONN. I think the ACC would consider Tulane, UC Davis, and even UNLV and Memphis before considering schools such as SDSU, Fresno, OrState, or WSU. What UNLV needs to do? Don't worry about conferences other than the P4, invest, keep winning, and keep marketing.

Here is the thing. Leaving for the PAC may not cost much at all.

As for hiring coaches? That has come primarily from boosters, so the conference hasn't mattered much yet.

There seems to be smoke that the MW will not get near what they thought from the PAC for better or worse. So the bonuses for staying seems to be worse than expected.

On top of that, the PAC is struggling to find an 8th fulltime member. Their options are paper thin, and they would absolutely LOVE to become whole with UNLV of all teams right now.

It is very possible, I would argue likely, that the upfront costs of joining the PAC would be zero. After the exit fees get negotiated down, and the fact that they offered 6million when they weren't as desperate, means that we could likely get all exit fees paid for us.

That combined with the bonuses from the MW will be less to a least some degree, it may not take very long to break even with leaving vs Staying, especially if the average payout for media could be double of the MW.

It may not be, the poaching fees could hold up 100% which would be great. It makes staying a bit more palatable.

But staying will eventually hurt UNLV. The reduced annual revenue will catch up eventually, whether it take 4-5 years, or < 1 year. The PAC will have the de facto tie breaker if it comes to a CFP spot, due to better SOS. We will have a slimmer degree of error to make the playoffs at the very least.

Then you look at basketball, and it is even a bigger divide in SOS.

Both conferences will have a free pass. Making twice the annual media revenue actually does matter. Yes, it is peanuts compared to P4, but with athletic budgets being what they are, even last penny helps. If we are fighting perhaps some of the new PAC as well as Memphis and Tulane for being in on the next P4 expansion, the fact they make nearly twice the media revenue certainly gives them an advantage.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

You are missing the biggest part.

Taking UNLV over a school worth very little. THAT is what creates the big swing in AAV. Not UNLV by itself, it is take UNLV worth 8-10 mil ( for agruments sake) instead of a team probably worth less that 1 million like a Texas State.

So having a full official conference, not having to use a lesser team that really doesn't fit the quality of the rest of the conferense, and bumping the AAV by nearly a million in the process.

That is value, and that would give us leverage

1- Where did you read the PAC offered UNLV 6 million dollars.?

2- To make math easy let's say last MWC media deal was 55 million. Divided among 11 teams (Hawaii partial share as FB only so we aren't factoring them)

You need to reach a 5 million dollar AAV.

But all schools obviously don't have the same value.


Show me what you think each school in the MWC was worth to a media partner.

 

[Rebel1986]

Here is the thing. Leaving for the PAC may not cost much at all.

As for hiring coaches? That has come primarily from boosters, so the conference hasn't mattered much yet.

There seems to be smoke that the MW will not get near what they thought from the PAC for better or worse. So the bonuses for staying seems to be worse than expected.

On top of that, the PAC is struggling to find an 8th fulltime member. Their options are paper thin, and they would absolutely LOVE to become whole with UNLV of all teams right now.

It is very possible, I would argue likely, that the upfront costs of joining the PAC would be zero. After the exit fees get negotiated down, and the fact that they offered 6million when they weren't as desperate, means that we could likely get all exit fees paid for us.

That combined with the bonuses from the MW will be less to a least some degree, it may not take very long to break even with leaving vs Staying, especially if the average payout for media could be double of the MW.

It may not be, the poaching fees could hold up 100% which would be great. It makes staying a bit more palatable.

But staying will eventually hurt UNLV. The reduced annual revenue will catch up eventually, whether it take 4-5 years, or < 1 year. The PAC will have the de facto tie breaker if it comes to a CFP spot, due to better SOS. We will have a slimmer degree of error to make the playoffs at the very least.

Then you look at basketball, and it is even a bigger divide in SOS.

Both conferences will have a free pass. Making twice the annual media revenue actually does matter. Yes, it is peanuts compared to P4, but with athletic budgets being what they are, even last penny helps. If we are fighting perhaps some of the new PAC as well as Memphis and Tulane for being in on the next P4 expansion, the fact they make nearly twice the media revenue certainly gives them an advantage.

Why would the MWC negotiate the exit fee at all? If UNLV looked at going to the PAC, the MWC would have the PAC by the balls since they are running out of time to get to an eighth team. All they would need to do is site back and watch it all fall apart.