Yes, but i would assume that the buyouts could be less.
The exit fees are driven by remaining money gauranteed from their existing contract. They tend to reduce the closer to the end of the contract, not increase.
As for exit fee negotiation I found this from an article when SDSU was flirting with the PAC last year:
“Exit fees are there for a reason, but they’re also highly negotiable and can be overcome, regardless of what it says in writing or in the by-laws of the conference,” retired Fox Sports Networks President Bob Thompson explained on Episode 79 of The SDSU Podcast. “So, I don’t look at any of these dates as a huge issue. Certainly, if you play it right down the middle per the terms of the by-laws or the Grant of Rights, whatever the governing agreement is for the Mountain West Conference is, it’s pretty simple, but even if all the circumstances don’t fall in line the way you wish, it’s still possible to move on.”
Thompson pointed to a recent precedent to prove his insight. When Oklahoma and Texas left the Big XII, the exit fee, according to the agreement the universities signed, should have been two years of conference revenue. In 2023, the Big XII revenue with OU and UT included would have been $37 million for each team. The exit fee should have been $147 million combined for both schools. Texas and Oklahoma agreed to pay $100 million, a 32% reduction of that total.
This also talks about exit fees being driven by conference revenue. With reduced conference revenue gauranteed in the books ( with a contract expiring) fees will likely go down.
I agree that the ship with Memphis and the other AAC teams has probably sailed. BUT to play devils advocate, they are getting ~ 9 mill currently, but that won't last forever. Not sure when that expires, but just like us, when you lose your 4 best markets, you are not going to be making the same. The new AAC teams are not making the full 9, but they were promised an equal share eventually. The top of the AAC will likely be making less sooner than later? How much less, hard to say.
Also to point out the Big 12 as a point of reference. Their total exit fees are very close the the total exit fees the traiterous 5 are due to the MW. We may be looking at 100 mil, not 145 mil.
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