Line ‘em up: Predictions and Game Thread UNLV vs UNM Game Thread

[j. spilotro]

What's the point in being upset with refs...
They've already screwed us and tried to screw us multiple times this conference play... at this point it's like tilting at windmillso

Backcourt depth is going to be a big question mark for this team if they have any hope of making a deep tournament run. I like DJ/LuRod/KeBoo as your starters, and Hicks is really blooming with consistent minutes and coaching staff trust. After that, it gets ugly fast. JJ3 is wild inconsistency in human form, if he's not dominating in the first 2-3 minutes of game time then he really needs to see the pine. Justin Weber through up the -14 goose egg in 5 minutes. He's a shorter Travis Bice but without an outside shot. Seriously, I'd rather see a rotation of Chancellor Davis, Andy Hannan and Dantley Walker rotation over him at this point. Nowell is pretty rough on offense but at least he's long and athletic and plays a little defense. Don't know who the hell is going to be able to give DJ a blow for 8 minutes a game if it's not Hicks or an isntantly effective JJ3. I really think Cottrell would be best served as a 3, since he's as soft as playdoh, always banged up, and a poor post defender--I think he's probably the best wing shooter we have, maybe we could find some minutes for him there, especially when you've got KeBoo and LuRod who are flexible enough to guard 2-5.

I will say seeing a team understand they're ice cold from 3 and generally instead of settling for more 3s, attacking the post and the drive lanes is something I'd never thought I'd see under Kevin. LuRod attacking weakside glass instead of sitting outside waiting for another brick to serve up makes a HUGE difference in what this team can do. Too bad it just took 50+ games for the staff to figure it out (next week when he jacks up 8 3pfg in the first half, I reserve the right to chalk this up to some sort of astrological phenmenon).

The team is playing hard on both sides of the ball. Guys are diving on the court, going to war on the glass. I still don't think this is going to be a team that sniffs the tournament, but at least they aren't a punishment to watch.

The team is loaded with roster issues. SG’s that can’t shoot, tiny guards that are feast or famine (usually famine), size, front court, depth, etc. And overall, they’re just plagued with inconsistency and a lack of shooting.

How to combat? Defend. And don’t launch so many threes, hit the lane. That’s your best chance and like you said, why did it take so long to recognize? Scrub knew about it before Halloween.

If they defend and they get away from that god awful dribble and chuck a three offense that they used for the first dozen games, they’ll have a fighting chance. The defense has been much betters, there have been some lapses because of individual components and the consistency isn’t always there.

It hasn’t been mentioned much and it’s something to keep an on - does DJT lose his legs? That’s alot of minutes and games and distance travelled for a kid that should be in HS. If he fatigues, it’s going to be tough. again, because of very poor roster construct.

 

[Rebel_Luv]

The team is loaded with roster issues. SG’s that can’t shoot, tiny guards that are feast or famine (usually famine), size, front court, depth, etc. And overall, they’re just plagued with inconsistency and a lack of shooting.

How to combat? Defend. And don’t launch so many threes, hit the lane. That’s your best chance and like you said, why did it take so long to recognize? Scrub knew about it before Halloween.

If they defend and they get away from that god awful dribble and chuck a three offense that they used for the first dozen games, they’ll have a fighting chance. The defense has been much betters, there have been some lapses because of individual components and the consistency isn’t always there.

It hasn’t been mentioned much and it’s something to keep an on - does DJT lose his legs? That’s alot of minutes and games and distance travelled for a kid that should be in HS. If he fatigues, it’s going to be tough. again, because of very poor roster construct.

Very poor, plus contributions from Nowell, Cottrell , and Webster have been non existent. All 3 were suppose to be starters. None of them are.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Very poor, plus contributions from Nowell, Cottrell , and Webster have been non existent. All 3 were suppose to be starters. None of them are.

Might be better off in long run though because of it... Whaley/Hicks both getting more run because that combo of 3 upperclassmen has been mediocre to bad... if KK had committed to playing freshman last year in the same regard, we'd still have Hall and possibly not lost Gilbert. So hopefully both Whaley and Hicks see a path to sustained playing time next year rather than moving off them in the offseason

 

[RebelScrub]

**** it..as a suicide run just put in JJ and Webster!!!

 

[j. spilotro]

Very poor, plus contributions from Nowell, Cottrell , and Webster have been non existent. All 3 were suppose to be starters. None of them are.

At least two of them should have been early knowns … it’s not like they suddenly dropped from high contributor status and are in a slump. They’re very limited dimension players and they don’t excel at those dimensions.

Though with Keylan out for awhile; that changes it up a little bit.

But would have loved to see Hicks very early and then his growth instead of just seeing it now. The difference in Hicks and Webster should have been easily detected in early practice, not by fans eyes on the court.

 

[mwsn7022012]

Backcourt depth is going to be a big question mark for this team if they have any hope of making a deep tournament run. I like DJ/LuRod/KeBoo as your starters, and Hicks is really blooming with consistent minutes and coaching staff trust. After that, it gets ugly fast. JJ3 is wild inconsistency in human form, if he's not dominating in the first 2-3 minutes of game time then he really needs to see the pine. Justin Weber through up the -14 goose egg in 5 minutes. He's a shorter Travis Bice but without an outside shot. Seriously, I'd rather see a rotation of Chancellor Davis, Andy Hannan and Dantley Walker rotation over him at this point. Nowell is pretty rough on offense but at least he's long and athletic and plays a little defense. Don't know who the hell is going to be able to give DJ a blow for 8 minutes a game if it's not Hicks or an isntantly effective JJ3. I really think Cottrell would be best served as a 3, since he's as soft as playdoh, always banged up, and a poor post defender--I think he's probably the best wing shooter we have, maybe we could find some minutes for him there, especially when you've got KeBoo and LuRod who are flexible enough to guard 2-5.

I will say seeing a team understand they're ice cold from 3 and generally instead of settling for more 3s, attacking the post and the drive lanes is something I'd never thought I'd see under Kevin. LuRod attacking weakside glass instead of sitting outside waiting for another brick to serve up makes a HUGE difference in what this team can do. Too bad it just took 50+ games for the staff to figure it out (next week when he jacks up 8 3pfg in the first half, I reserve the right to chalk this up to some sort of astrological phenmenon).

The team is playing hard on both sides of the ball. Guys are diving on the court, going to war on the glass. I still don't think this is going to be a team that sniffs the tournament, but at least they aren't a punishment to watch.

NIT is a possibility if they win out.

 

[WarthogRebel]

At least two of them should have been early knowns … it’s not like they suddenly dropped from high contributor status and are in a slump. They’re very limited dimension players and they don’t excel at those dimensions.

Though with Keylan out for awhile; that changes it up a little bit.

But would have loved to see Hicks very early and then his growth instead of just seeing it now. The difference in Hicks and Webster should have been easily detected in early practice, not by fans eyes on the court.

Just to my eye, early on Hicks look behind the game and at some time nearly lost. I think he's been brought on just about the right.

 

[WarthogRebel]

NIT is a possibility if they win out.

There will be a lot of moving parts. 1) How many upsets will there be in league tournaments giving NCAA spots to teams that would not normally be expected to go? 2) How high are we in NET. 3) How many teams decline an NIT bid? 3) What are the NET scores for the 12 P5 teams with guaranteed bids?

The NIT was almost cancelled after last year. UAB played North Texas in the final and it drew an abysmal National TV audience because nobody cared. I was at the game and it was only about 3/4 full. The new rules are an effort to make absolutely sure the teams getting to the final are names with at least some national recognition and following. Of the 32 teams, I don't expect to see more than 3 or 4 G5 participants.

 

[j. spilotro]

There will be a lot of moving parts. 1) How many upsets will there be in league tournaments giving NCAA spots to teams that would not normally be expected to go? 2) How high are we in NET. 3) How many teams decline an NIT bid? 3) What are the NET scores for the 12 P5 teams with guaranteed bids?

The NIT was almost cancelled after last year. UAB played North Texas in the final and it drew an abysmal National TV audience because nobody cared. I was at the game and it was only about 3/4 full. The new rules are an effort to make absolutely sure the teams getting to the final are names with at least some national recognition and following. Of the 32 teams, I don't expect to see more than 3 or 4 G5 participants.

Nobody cares because it’s a garbage tournament. 1 of every 5 teams makes it to the NCAAT.

The NIT is like when teams make playoffs and they’re below 500

 

[Couev]

NIT is a possibility if they win out.

If they win out (should let us finish 3rd to 5th), and can win to the championship game assuming chalk that would give us a real chance at a NCAA birth. We'd be 23-10 with 7-8 quad 1 wins, even with the 3 quad 3 losses. However, the remaining schedule includes we have 3 Q1 and one Q2 left on the plate before the tourney. I just don't see us winning out considering we're already on the longest Win streak of the season at 4 games.

NIT or CBI would both be a possibility as long as the losses you sustain are just Q1--but NIT is going to be 75% power conference teams or teams with bigger name recognition than we have currently.

Personally I see us with Ls @UNR, Home against SDSU and then probably that @ Wyoming given how short our bench is. We'll finish 6th or 7th in the conference. Get the W against AFA or SJSU then lose in the second game against UNM or SDSU. No postseason.

 

[Masked_rebel]

If they win out (should let us finish 3rd to 5th), and can win to the championship game assuming chalk that would give us a real chance at a NCAA birth. We'd be 23-10 with 7-8 quad 1 wins, even with the 3 quad 3 losses. However, the remaining schedule includes we have 3 Q1 and one Q2 left on the plate before the tourney. I just don't see us winning out considering we're already on the longest Win streak of the season at 4 games.

NIT or CBI would both be a possibility as long as the losses you sustain are just Q1--but NIT is going to be 75% power conference teams or teams with bigger name recognition than we have currently.

Personally I see us with Ls @UNR, Home against SDSU and then probably that @ Wyoming given how short our bench is. We'll finish 6th or 7th in the conference. Get the W against AFA or SJSU then lose in the second game against UNM or SDSU. No postseason.

Not sure if you're arguing if we win out wed be in the conversation, but that would get the auto birth and any at large conversation wouldn't matter.. That'd be a big IIFFFFFFFF and certainly winning the regular conference title even losing in the championship game would likely result in a birth- considering that means wins vs UNR and SDSU...
I think Utah St did something similar a few years ago, mediocre OOC, got hot and ran through regular season title, won championship, got birth..

 

[WarthogRebel]

Not sure if you're arguing if we win out wed be in the conversation, but that would get the auto birth and any at large conversation wouldn't matter.. That'd be a big IIFFFFFFFF and certainly winning the regular conference title even losing in the championship game would likely result in a birth- considering that means wins vs UNR and SDSU...
I think Utah St did something similar a few years ago, mediocre OOC, got hot and ran through regular season title, won championship, got birth..

Our last quad 1 win was Sat against New Mexico got us 10 slots up in NET ( 97 to 87 ). ( It's impossible to calculate the exact number of spots a win or loss means because the formula is relatively complex and only the NCAA knows it.)

So, considering we need @ 47 NET to get an at-large bid, we need to go up 40 spots. That would be 3 additional quad 1 wins as long as we also beat the teams we are supposed to bet. (beating these teams will get us the additional 10 spots) Right now NM, SDSU, Colorado State and Utah State would be Quad 1 wins at home. ( Keep in mind this could change as teams win or lose going forward) Reno is a Quad 2 at home and a Quad 1 away.

So - we have three more shots at quad 1 wins in the regular season.(Reno away, Colorado State, and SDSU) We also would possibly get 2 quad 1 in the MWC Tourney. That makes 5 possible quad 1 wins.

We need to win all the gimmies and 4 of 5 of the Quad 1 games to realistically think we can get in without winning the tourney.

 

[Couev]

Not sure if you're arguing if we win out wed be in the conversation, but that would get the auto birth and any at large conversation wouldn't matter.. That'd be a big IIFFFFFFFF and certainly winning the regular conference title even losing in the championship game would likely result in a birth- considering that means wins vs UNR and SDSU...
I think Utah St did something similar a few years ago, mediocre OOC, got hot and ran through regular season title, won championship, got birth..

Win to the championship gaming, meaning we lose in the last one, sorry if that wasn't clear. I'm aware that the championship gets an autobid, it's not 2000 anymore.

 

[Masked_rebel]

I think the committee would be hard pressed to skip out on a team that went on what a 14 game winning streak at that point with another probably 3 Q1 wins minimum, even with our lackluster performance in OOC... but I'm still not crazy enough to argue for a "at large" conversation

 

[RebelScrub]

just go to the CIT and call it a day.

 

[dcut03]

Half of the NIT bids are guaranteed to Power schools, no longer get lower conference autobids.
If we work our way back up to the bubble, then we get a NIT invite. It seems like it will be basically the top remaining NET teams.
I think Beating good teams is better than losing to bad ones. The 3 quad 4 losses will hurt, no question. But if it came down to us and a team that had no quad 4 losses, but only a couple quad 1 wins, and we were sitting at 6+ I think we get the nod. We have proven to compete against good competition, while the other team loaded up on cupcakes.
In terms of NET rating, I think it could climb quite a bit if we won out and say lost the MWCT. It would mean beating 2 more top 25 NET teams, as our NET climbs it helps the NET of the teams we beat, and I think it can drop a good amount. How much? Hard to say, but I think it can get into the 40's.

 

[j. spilotro]

Half of the NIT bids are guaranteed to Power schools, no longer get lower conference autobids.
If we work our way back up to the bubble, then we get a NIT invite. It seems like it will be basically the top remaining NET teams.
I think Beating good teams is better than losing to bad ones. The 3 quad 4 losses will hurt, no question. But if it came down to us and a team that had no quad 4 losses, but only a couple quad 1 wins, and we were sitting at 6+ I think we get the nod. We have proven to compete against good competition, while the other team loaded up on cupcakes.
In terms of NET rating, I think it could climb quite a bit if we won out and say lost the MWCT. It would mean beating 2 more top 25 NET teams, as our NET climbs it helps the NET of the teams we beat, and I think it can drop a good amount. How much? Hard to say, but I think it can get into the 40's.

Does NIT take home attendance into consideration? If so, major black mark.

 

[dcut03]

Does NIT take home attendance into consideration? If so, major black mark.

It does, but it guarantees the opening home games going to power teams. So it may not affect UNLV.

 

[RebelScrub]

lol, yeah the 3000 strong GIVES such a strong home field advantage.

 

[rebelwithacause]

The only real HOPE / Just win the MWC Tournament- I think we have a decent chance to win it
we aren't going to get an At large

This team would fold first game for Not In Tourney if we were invited
they need a big stage to play up to their capabilities

NIT isnt going to save Kevin Job

 

[dcut03]

NIT isnt going to save Kevin Job

But should it?

That would be the best season in UNLV in 11 years. Do you fire a guy that is learning on a job in year 3 of a school friendly contract for that?

I don't know what Harper's criteria is, but I think it should be a bit more than NCAA or bust if that is in fact true. When you have an inexperienced coach, I think you want to see how they develop before tossing them aside.

Again with the caveat that you don't have a HR hire at the ready.

I don't know if Harper is looking for reasons to keep him or to fire him. This season actually has had plenty of both.

 

[Masked_rebel]

But should it?

That would be the best season in UNLV in 11 years. Do you fire a guy that is learning on a job in year 3 of a school friendly contract for that?

I don't know what Harper's criteria is, but I think it should be a bit more than NCAA or bust if that is in fact true. When you have an inexperienced coach, I think you want to see how they develop before tossing them aside.

Again with the caveat that you don't have a HR hire at the ready.

I don't know if Harper is looking for reasons to keep him or to fire him. This season actually has had plenty of both.

Yes.. but maybe no, does an NIT bid count if we flame out in game 1 of the MWC tournament but finished say 3rd in MWC regular season play? Id argue that knowing full well we needed to win Conference tournament and flaming out early, a NIT bid wouldnt be adequate... However, what if we go say 6-2 to finish out meaning a 10-2 record since losing to AFA and then make a conference tournament final, which likely means having to beat a SDSU or a Boise St in the conference tournament, then yeah, Id view keeping him around more favorably, especially if key players are dedicated to returning and were supplementing roster losses with key replacements that fill current rosters shortcomings... IE- a Guard that can handle the ball and defend and a solid sharp shooter.
But if there is a meltdown and then we see a revolving door of talent and especially the younger players, then you might as well make the move, even with an NIT bid.

 

[dcut03]

Yes.. but maybe no, does an NIT bid count if we flame out in game 1 of the MWC tournament but finished say 3rd in MWC regular season play? Id argue that knowing full well we needed to win Conference tournament and flaming out early, a NIT bid wouldnt be adequate... However, what if we go say 6-2 to finish out meaning a 10-2 record since losing to AFA and then make a conference tournament final, which likely means having to beat a SDSU or a Boise St in the conference tournament, then yeah, Id view keeping him around more favorably, especially if key players are dedicated to returning and were supplementing roster losses with key replacements that fill current rosters shortcomings... IE- a Guard that can handle the ball and defend and a solid sharp shooter.
But if there is a meltdown and then we see a revolving door of talent and especially the younger players, then you might as well make the move, even with an NIT bid.

Well I don't think your scenario would happen. We have so much NET ground to make up that if we flame out in the first round of the MWCT I don't think we make the NIT.

But yes another WTF game to say Air Force or Fresno tonight. Meaning another blowout against a bad team ( 10pts or more). That just can't happen.

 

[RebelScrub]

Well I don't think your scenario would happen. We have so much NET ground to make up that if we flame out in the first round of the MWCT I don't think we make the NIT.

But yes another WTF game to say Air Force or Fresno tonight. Meaning another blowout against a bad team ( 10pts or more). That just can't happen.

They don’t even make CIT tournaments anymore.