NET
- Thread starter WarthogRebel
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It's crazy how little a win like that changes things. I'd expect that a win @ Reno would be similar then, and best case it would move us up 5-6 spots. Gonna be interesting to see how the NCAA tourney does things. Unless we win the conference tourney though, I have a hard time believing they'll include 7 teams from the MWC
Whats 4 places times 3 over the next 3 games? Puts us at around 60? Would that be good enough to make it on a 14-1 win streak over last 15? Its going to definitely make for a lot of the talking heads to discuss...
How does a team like UNM with only a few good wins be way ahead of us. NET is flawed.
It is flawed... But UNM didnt have the bad OOC losses that sank our NET. yeah, they also lost to Air Force... but they didnt compound that with Southern, LMU, etc..
I’ve got a hard time believing they let more than 4 in. Partly because we got in there and helped cause chaos in the standings. What the heck is a projected no tourney team doing in the top of the standings amongst 6 tourney teams? I just can’t see them letting all those teams in.
As it should. At this stage in the season, our 29th game, this accounts for 3.45% of our body of work. To move from 81 to 77 reflects that. It just doesn't carry that much weight as individual results are diluted at this point.
What does carry weight is a losing OOC record against generally weak D1 competition. Sorry, can't count Aunt Carroll or Bethesda Bible. You want to break free from these shackles and chains? Get to next season and don't repeat these results. Schedule way better or never lose if you chose to play this schedule.
No amount of good recent results washes out calamities we wish didn't happen. The computer is not near sighted. The computer is not emotional. The computer takes everything into account.
If we beat Reno, and that's a big IF given how they are playing, it will now account for 3.33% of our body of work. Our bump will therefore probably be marginally more than a 3.33% increase. Expect 4-5 more spot increase.
Just as with spending and personal finance and investing and retirement planning, one good year or game does not make-or-break you and you don't get a pass on math.
Unfortunately the RPI is no longer used. The RPI currently has UNLV at #60.
SDSU stayed at 19.
In addition to the point made above it seems the NET puts a ton of emphasis on home wins not valued much and losses valued more vs road wins/losses.
As the old adage goes, win at home and split on the road and you will be just fine.
In addition to the point made above it seems the NET puts a ton of emphasis on home wins not valued much and losses valued more vs road wins/losses.
As the old adage goes, win at home and split on the road and you will be just fine.
At Reno we'll go up @ 8 places because it would be a road win.
In the tourney - as it currently stands - the only Quad 1 wins for us would be USU, Boise, and SDSU. ( they are home games for us ) We could end up playing Fresno in the quarterfinals, beating them only by 6, and going backwards.
The NET is not completed until the end of the season, it is tough to watch daily.
CSU dropping below 30 hurt us because their games were downgraded a quadrant. If they gain some more ground, that could create a boost for us.
UNM is at 29 and barely hanging on to top quadrant status, we need them to beat USU ( also will help seeding).
Similarly if we get below 70, all of our games would be upgraded for all of our competition, which could create yet another bump for us.
Of course it is a long shot which ever way you slice it. However, if things line up, the NET could bump up a good amount and we could be sitting with a very gaudy quad 1 record which could be enough if we were to lose in the MWCT. We would need CSU to get below 30 again, UNM to stay below 30, and it would help to pick up 1 or 2 more quad wins along the way. a 9-4 quad one record is difficult to ignore.
Most seem to have given up on the at large discussion for us, but there is a path.
How about we just win the tournament and make this moot? mmkay?
CSU dropping below 30 hurt us because their games were downgraded a quadrant. If they gain some more ground, that could create a boost for us.
UNM is at 29 and barely hanging on to top quadrant status, we need them to beat USU ( also will help seeding).
Similarly if we get below 70, all of our games would be upgraded for all of our competition, which could create yet another bump for us.
Of course it is a long shot which ever way you slice it. However, if things line up, the NET could bump up a good amount and we could be sitting with a very gaudy quad 1 record which could be enough if we were to lose in the MWCT. We would need CSU to get below 30 again, UNM to stay below 30, and it would help to pick up 1 or 2 more quad wins along the way. a 9-4 quad one record is difficult to ignore.
Most seem to have given up on the at large discussion for us, but there is a path.
How about we just win the tournament and make this moot? mmkay?
Good analysis but ugh … makes my head hurt. Half the time you’ll be rooting for the team you think you should but as it turns out you should have actually wanted the other side to win because the game that just ended was different than what you expected.
It is important to keep in mind that NET rankings are not the only factor the NCAA selection committee considers. Also, the lowest NET ranking to make the ncaa's was Rutgers at 77 a few years ago. The talk in the sports media is that the MWC could be a 4-5 bid conference. My point is this, if UNLV defeats Reno and USU loses UNLV will end up tied for the MWC regular season title. Additionally, what if UNLV wins a game or two in the MWC tourney? Assuming the MWC is a 4-5 bid conference, how can the the committee select 3-4 teams that finished below UNLV in the conference standings for the tourney just based on NET ratings? Especially, like a New Mexico who UNLV defeated twice?
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Rutgers getting in at 77 does prove that point. I haven't found a site that still lists the NET breakdown for last season. But I'm guessing they got in from having a fair amount of quad 1 wins. We have that already and could have a top 20 level quad 1 record at the end of the day. I would think that good wins would trump bad losses, but that is a pure assumption. I'm guess that Rutgers had some bad losses, but I'm guessing not 3 quad 4 losses.
At this point I think it is down to either 5 or 6 bids. I doubt we get only 4. Both UNM and CSU would have to shit the bed for that to happen.
If we (or some other team outside the bubble) steal a bid win the MWCT I really doubt we get 7. THere would have to be collapses from several other bubble teams and no conference tourney surprises for that to happen.
I have a feeling thought hat UNM may be the best NET team to miss the tourney this year, them or CSU really.
"I haven't found a site that still lists the NET breakdown for last season."
I've spent too much time trying to find this also. No luck.
Hope this helps.
Steve Pikiell has been on both sides of what the NET giveth and taketh away. In 2022, Rutgers became the lowest-ranked team in the NET era to earn an at-large bid. The Scarlet Knights got into the tournament with a No. 77 NET ranking, largely based on their 6-6 record in Quad 1.
Source: https://theathletic.com/5096436/2023/12/01/net-ncaa-basketball-tournament-rankings-selection/#
Steve Pikiell has been on both sides of what the NET giveth and taketh away. In 2022, Rutgers became the lowest-ranked team in the NET era to earn an at-large bid. The Scarlet Knights got into the tournament with a No. 77 NET ranking, largely based on their 6-6 record in Quad 1.
Source: https://theathletic.com/5096436/2023/12/01/net-ncaa-basketball-tournament-rankings-selection/#
UNLV has to defeat Reno. But if the MWC is truly a 5-6 bid league, even if USU wins the title and UNLV finishes in 2nd place, I doubt the committee will take the first place USU, skip UNLV who finished 2nd, and take teams 3,4,5 and 6. I have never seen a scenario like that occur. Also, I don’t feel the MWC is a 5-6 bid league. 4 max.
The schedule was fairly tough. One of the jokes on the schedule was because of the last minute cancelation of Dayton cuz of the unlv shooting. By what you stated you blamed them for that.
To have one joke game to get minutes for the bench is not the worst thing.
Considering how high Dayton is ranked, it would have been a great game for UNLV to play.
UNLV NET ironically moved up to 77 or the same as Rutgers in 2022.. No question UNLV has to beat Reno. But currently UNLV is 5-3 in quad 1 wins. If UNLV wins on Saturday and picks up a quad 1 win in the MWC tournament they will have a 6-3 quad 1 record. Is that enough coupled with a 2nd place finish in the MWC if they beat Reno? 6-3 is better than Rutger’s 6-6. Maybe there is a path that doesn’t require winning the MWC tournament.
I don’t know and will check. But two other points. I didn’t realize a win at Reno on the road would classified as another Quad 1 win bringing UNLV to 6-3 in Quad 1. Also, from the ncaa web site they say that Quad 1 wins are “incredibly important“ to the committee. Also, no question the Quad 4 loses hurt. But if UNLV wins at Reno it will be fascinating to see how UNLV is handled as co-MWC conference champions or the 2nd place finisher. Under that scenario I feel UNLV would bump the Lobos for example and just take the top 4 teams from the MWC. Because, regardless of NET UNLV finished higher in the same conference and defeated the Lobo’s at home and on the road.
If CSU wins a couple more games, our home game win against them would also elevate to quad 1. They were a quad one when we beat them, but has since dropped down. They have probably too easy of a schedule to get below 30 in the regular season, but a win or 2 in the MWCT could do it.
If we beat Reno, beat 2 quad 1 teams in the MWCT, we could be sitting at 9-3, 9-4 if we lose to a 3rd quad 1.
That is what I was alluding to with having a top 20 quad 1 record. Even 6-3 or7-3 would be very very good.
As for MW teams. Nearly every prognosticators is putting 6 MW teams in right now. I think UNM has a lot to work to do and CSU is on thin ice themselves. But I think 5 is pretty safe. 4 are practically locks right now. USU, UNR, BSU, and SDSU
Very possible. it depends which is more concerning for the committee.
Our quad 1 record will likely be much better than theirs at the end of the day.
I don't remember the conversation last year, mostly since we weren't in it. But was Rutgers considered a bubble team? For sure there was some Big 10 bias going on there. Big 10 wasn't very good last year, and they could have been invited just to get a minimum team in.
No one is mentioning UNLV as a bubble team right now at least. Not sure how much of the bubble talk influences the committee or not.
I think if we finish 1st or 2nd in the conference, a conference that could get up to 6 teams in ( at least 4) may get us in the conversation. Especially if we make it to the MWCT championship game.
The NET does not officially use last 10 games any more, but I wonder if that is still something the committee looks at. I'm sure it does to some degree
I would think that our three Quad 4 losses pretty much make UNLV null and void in the selection committee process. Those are real bad. We either win the MWC Tourney or forget about the NCAA Tourney. I'm hoping we can get one of those 20 available NIT at-large slots.
Actually, Lunardi has us in the "Next" under bubble so basically 10 spots out of last 4 in according to his bracket watch... so we are in that group of 10-12 teams fighting for those few bubble spots
Again that is very possible. Not sure what the committee criteria is, and it may change some year to year.
The one thing that has been emphasized is quad 1 record. That is to our favor at the least.
The NIT is picked by the same commitee, so it will be interesting to see where we end up. Our seeding in the NIT will tell us how close we were. If we don't make the NIT it shows how much those losses really hurt us.
Of course we always like to play what if, but I'd be curious how the committee would look at a UNM team that wins against Utah State, then loses in the quarterfinals of the MWCT, versus a UNLV team that wins on the road against reno, and loses in Champ game of MWCT. UNLV would have a quad 1 record of potentially 8-3 at that point vs UNM 2-7, and would be 2-0 against UNM. Probably more likely both teams get left out all together than one or the other makes it in this scenario however. Would be hard though for the committee to put UNM in, and leave UNLV out. Unless they are gonna put a lot of weight behind beating USU next game.
If UNM wins and Boise loses, UNLV would be Co-Champs with USU. If I was a committee member trying to decide who gets bumped, You start checking boxes
1. NET- UNM
2. OOC- UNM
3. Q1s- UNLV
4. Conference Season- UNLV
5. Head to Head- UNLV
You'd be hard pressed as a committee to take a team that got beat twice by the other who also shared a conference title and made it to the conference tournament just because their Net is higher....
Exactly my thoughts as well. I know right now it may seem absurd that UNLV could be at large worthy. But add a road win against UNR, Thursday MWCT win against, say, SDSU, Friday Against Boise or USU, and then a loss Sat to the other one of those 2. That team is suddenly real close. But I'm getting ahead of myself here. Fun to look ahead. Just win. That's it. Just win.
As long as we arent disappointed with a loss in the first game, which seems to happen every time we get our hopes up for this stupid tournament, lol. There are a lot of Q1 wins to be had over the next few games which would definitely put our resume up there for consideration if we dont completely fall flat on our faces... I hate getting my hopes up each year entering the conference tournament only to lose to SDSU or USU in the first round or lose our legs vs like an Air Force to then get trounced in the next round..
Yeah. This year that seems even more likely as well considering there are 7 teams all very close in terms of talent. Any of those 7 could win and I would not be slightly surprised. Getting the 2 seed doesn't mean as much this year as in years past when you could be playing a CSU or UNM Thursday night, both of which have been in and out of the top 25 much of the year.
The big difference in the MWC tournament this year is UNLV will most likely not play one of the top teams in their first game if ranked 1st or 2nd in the conference.
Yeah true. But honestly right now, a game against UNM or CSU is no different to me than a game against BSU or USU. Everyone is very close. I'd just prefer to avoid SDSU, especially after just beating them. Which means we will probably get SDSU Thursday lol.
Seeding matters because game time matters... mid afternoon tips suck for any potential home fan support. Imagine facing UNM at like 1pm where you know they will have fans in attendance. It sucks. Also given SDSUs conference record, that side of the bracket would mean SDSU 4/5, then USU... where the other side you get potential for an upset and or tired legs due to them playing the day before. It matters, which is why getting into the top 5 was good for us, but now finishing in a position where that might come in even better for us matters.
