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MW Championship scenarios

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unlv7163

UNLV Hall of Fame
Feb 26, 2004
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Was posting in another thread about this, but found a tweet that answered my question. If AF beats Boise, UNLV is in W or L. If Boise wins, we have to win to play in the game.

Makes it hard to know who to root for Friday (sort of). If AF wins, we are guaranteed a spot. Not only that, SJSU has nothing on the line. That being said, I’d personally rather play Boise since we haven’t played them this season.
 
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1) If we beat SJSU we are in and play at allegiant no matter what. (Only team with 1 loss)

2) If AF beats Boise we are in and are only playing SJSU for the location of the game.

3) If Boise beats AF and we lose, Boise/SJSU/UNLV have the same record (6-2) and tiebreakers ensue.

4). In this Hellish scenario, Boise beat San Jose and didn't play us - W, DNP. San Jose will have beat us and lost to Boise - W, L. UNLV will have a loss to SJSU and didn't play Boise - L, DNP. Only UNLV will not have a win in this trio. Boise and SJSU will play for the championship at Boise.

Root for AF. Their kickoff is 1 hour after ours so we will have a sweat if we lose.

 
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WarthogRebel said:
1) If we beat SJSU we are in and play at allegiant no matter what. (Only team with 1 loss)

2) If AF beats Boise we are in and are only playing SJSU for the location of the game.

3) If Boise beats AF and we lose, Boise/SJSU/UNLV have the same record (6-2) and tiebreakers ensue.

4). In this Hellish scenario, Boise beat San Jose and didn't play us - W, DNP. San Jose will have beat us and lost to Boise - W, L. UNLV will have a loss to SJSU and didn't play Boise - L, DNP. Only UNLV will not have a win in this trio. Boise and SJSU will play for the championship at Boise.

Root for AF. Their kickoff is 1 hour after ours so we will have a sweat if we lose.

Click to expand...
AFA vs BSU is on Friday...

For your second scenario (AFA beats boise), how do you figure we are in just based off AFA beating Boise? It would be 3 way tie and it was a true round robin (UNLV > AFA, AFA > SJSU, SJSU > UNLV). So it is down to computer rankings. You that confident we'd be ahead of at least one of those teams with a loss to SJSU?

Also, I think on your last point, I read that tiebreaker scenario l differently.

1. Winning percentages of the tied teams are compared in a mini round-robin format. If, within the mini roundrobin, any of the tied teams did not play each other, the group of teams shall remain tied, unless one team defeated all other tied teams.
Click to expand...

I had understood that as "if any of the teams in this tie didn't play another team in this tie, this point doesn't matter, move to the next step"... Basically since it isn't a true round robin, we throw it out.
 
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LocoRebel said:
AFA vs BSU is on Friday...

For your second scenario (AFA beats boise), how do you figure we are in just based off AFA beating Boise? It would be 3 way tie and it was a true round robin (UNLV > AFA, AFA > SJSU, SJSU > UNLV). So it is down to computer rankings. You that confident we'd be ahead of at least one of those teams with a loss to SJSU?

Also, I think on your last point, I read that tiebreaker scenario l differently.



I had understood that as "if any of the teams in this tie didn't play another team in this tie, this point doesn't matter, move to the next step"... Basically since it isn't a true round robin, we throw it out.
Click to expand...
If AF beats Boise, Boise goes to 3 losses and is out. We have the tiebreaker over AF. Rule 1 seems confusing but between the two teams ( AF-UNLV) we beat them and have the tiebreaker.
 
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WarthogRebel said:
If AF beats Boise, Boise goes to 3 losses and is out. We have the tiebreaker over AF. Rule 1 seems confusing but between the two teams ( AF-UNLV) we beat them and have the tiebreaker.
Click to expand...
Since it would be a 3 way tie (AFA/UNLV/SJSU 6-2, 1-1 in head to head) in that scenario it would still go to computers, wouldn't it?
 
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LocoRebel said:
Since it would be a 3 way tie (AFA/UNLV/SJSU 6-2, 1-1 in head to head) in that scenario it would still go to computers, wouldn't it?
Click to expand...
Hopefully we just win so there’s nothing to think about. However, If we lose to SJSU we are guaranteed a 3 way tie with SJSU and the winner of AF/Boise. In reading the rules, I cannot hep but think either scenario goes to computer rankings. This is from the conference tiebreaker document:

TIE BETWEEN THREE OR MORE TEAMS:

In the event of a percentage tie between three or more teams, the following comparison procedure shall be used until one or more teams gain an advantage and/or the process reverts to the two-team tiebreaking procedures:

1. Winning percentages of the tied teams are compared in a mini round-robin format. If, within the mini round-robin, any of the tied teams did not play each other, the group of teams shall remain tied, unless one team defeated all other tied teams.

2. Highest CFP Selection Committee Ranking (or composite average of selected computer rankings). The two highest-ranked tied teams will be identified using the following criteria:

d. The tied team(s) who are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee Ranking (November

21) and win in the final weekend.

b. A composite average of selected computer rankings for the tied teams) that lose in the final weekend of the regular season OR were not ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee Ranking (November 21).
Note: CFP Selection Committee Ranking is superior to the composite average of selected computer rankings in (a.) and (b.) above.


The way I see it, if Boise wins, it is impossible that one of the three in the round tobin beat both other teams as we did not play Boise and Boise beat SJSU. It goes to computers.

If AF wins, everyone in the round robin is 1-1 so it goes to computers.

Under no scenario will it be one team have defeated all other tied teams as stated in tiebreaker #1. It goes to computers.

Does anyone know how we stack up in the composite average of computer rankings? I have to think we are top 2 since SJSU and Boise will both be gunning for win #7 compared to our 9 wins.
 
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LocoRebel said:
VegasKC SDM said:
Hopefully we just win so there’s nothing to think about. However, If we lose to SJSU we are guaranteed a 3 way tie with SJSU and the winner of AF/Boise. In reading the rules, I cannot hep but think either scenario goes to computer rankings. This is from the conference tiebreaker document:

TIE BETWEEN THREE OR MORE TEAMS:

In the event of a percentage tie between three or more teams, the following comparison procedure shall be used until one or more teams gain an advantage and/or the process reverts to the two-team tiebreaking procedures:

1. Winning percentages of the tied teams are compared in a mini round-robin format. If, within the mini round-robin, any of the tied teams did not play each other, the group of teams shall remain tied, unless one team defeated all other tied teams.

2. Highest CFP Selection Committee Ranking (or composite average of selected computer rankings). The two highest-ranked tied teams will be identified using the following criteria:

d. The tied team(s) who are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee Ranking (November

21) and win in the final weekend.

b. A composite average of selected computer rankings for the tied teams) that lose in the final weekend of the regular season OR were not ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee Ranking (November 21).
Note: CFP Selection Committee Ranking is superior to the composite average of selected computer rankings in (a.) and (b.) above.


The way I see it, if Boise wins, it is impossible that one of the three in the round tobin beat both other teams as we did not play Boise and Boise beat SJSU. It goes to computers.

If AF wins, everyone in the round robin is 1-1 so it goes to computers.

Under no scenario will it be one team have defeated all other tied teams as stated in tiebreaker #1. It goes to computers.

Does anyone know how we stack up in the composite average of computer rankings? I have to think we are top 2 since SJSU and Boise will both be gunning for win #7 compared to our 9 wins.
Click to expand...
I’m not sure how far the rankings go. I don’t think they rank every fbs team otherwise there would be no need for further tiebreakers. The next tie breaker is overall record. In the scenario of AF & SJS winning, both AF and us would be 9-3 while SJS is 7-5, so us and AF would go. Not sure who hosts in that scenario though. Boise winning is a little more murky because I don’t whether the first tie breaker applies
Click to expand...
 
Can’t allow a lose to SJSU. Finally get to the point of having the championship game in our grasp and we potentially lose it on the last game of the season in front of our home fans, especially if a large crowd shows up to support them. Can’t let that happen.
 
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lvrebalum2012 said:
I think this article does a good job explaining things, especially the computer rankings.

gazette.com

Stunning New Mexico upset of Fresno State thrusts Air Force back in control of its Mountain West destiny

Air Force’s loss to UNLV on Saturday meant it would need the help of the long-odds variety to play for a Mountain West championship.
gazette.com gazette.com
Click to expand...
Sounds like there is a good chance that we’d be in (and host) regardless. Of course, I’m sure we‘d all rather not find out.
 
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lvrebalum2012 said:
I think this article does a good job explaining things, especially the computer rankings.

gazette.com

Stunning New Mexico upset of Fresno State thrusts Air Force back in control of its Mountain West destiny

Air Force’s loss to UNLV on Saturday meant it would need the help of the long-odds variety to play for a Mountain West championship.
gazette.com gazette.com
Click to expand...
Good find there. That makes me feel fairly confident about our chances. If the computer deficit really is that large I can’t see SJSU or Boise jumping us.
 
lvrebalum2012 said:
I think this article does a good job explaining things, especially the computer rankings.

gazette.com

Stunning New Mexico upset of Fresno State thrusts Air Force back in control of its Mountain West destiny

Air Force’s loss to UNLV on Saturday meant it would need the help of the long-odds variety to play for a Mountain West championship.
gazette.com gazette.com
Click to expand...
I think it will be us and Boise which is cool because we haven’t played them yet this season plus it is the perfect scenario to get our first win against them.
 
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I saw a tweet from Rebel Robert of all dudes that said we were automatically hosting the championship game win or lose this week.

I don't believe that is a certainty at this time, and I didn't want to link a tweet from him.

But I can see us winning the tie breakers. It really depends to the rankings and overall record. If we get smashed I can see computer rankings drop us out of the top spot.

It would be a 3 way tie if we lose no matter what. We would have a better record than both Boise (if they were to win) and San Jose State, Same record as Air Force (if they were to win). It would depend on the computer rankings at the time.
 
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j. spilotro said:
It amazes me that there isn't some absolute crystal clarity from the conference. There are only 8 conference games, ties are inevitable.
Click to expand...
H2H, then in 3 way ties it goes computer ranking amongst 5 computer systems. Ties for hosting responsibilities also come into similar scenario, which sure beats using the academic record to break ties.
When you have 4 teams that could all end up with same records and 1 team didn't play all of the other 3, it requires the computer rankings. Maybe we consider it luck that we didnt have to play Boise because even though we probably beat them a few games ago, the computer rankings put us in the driver seat.
 
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Masked_rebel said:
H2H, then in 3 way ties it goes computer ranking amongst 5 computer systems. Ties for hosting responsibilities also come into similar scenario, which sure beats using the academic record to break ties.
When you have 4 teams that could all end up with same records and 1 team didn't play all of the other 3, it requires the computer rankings. Maybe we consider it luck that we didnt have to play Boise because even though we probably beat them a few games ago, the computer rankings put us in the driver seat.
Click to expand...
lol, I remember that. Let’s use APR.

What happened to APR? We used to discuss it a lot. What happened? Way more online classes ….
 
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According to that article these are the 4.

The next tiebreaker is a team’s average position in four computer rankings: Jeff Anderson & Chris Hester, Colley’s Bias Free Matrix Rankings, the Massey Ratings and those from Peter R. Wolfe.
 
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From what I can see from the 4 polls:

Average between the 4

UNLV 34.75
Air Force 54
Boise St. 64
San Jose St. 71.25

I think the gap is too big and we host regardless, the only team that can catch us imo is Air Force but I don't see a 20 position shift. Saying that I rather be sole champion then shared. Let's go Rebels just SJSU.
 
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The most will be a 3 way tie. Either boise or AF will lose taking one of them out. I actually hope AF beats BSu. Hopefully we beat SJSU and we don't have to worry about it. Then we will just host the winner of AF vs BSu. But everything I read most people pretty much think UNLV is in no matter who wins or loses this week. Hope they are right, but also hopefully it doesn't matter as we take care of business at home.
 
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RebNReno said:
According to that article these are the 4.

The next tiebreaker is a team’s average position in four computer rankings: Jeff Anderson & Chris Hester, Colley’s Bias Free Matrix Rankings, the Massey Ratings and those from Peter R. Wolfe.
Click to expand...
I hope it is the Massey average rating and not Massey. Massey has screwed over UNLV the entire season and basically has BSU even or ahead of UNLV.
 
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WarthogRebel said:
It looks like it.
Click to expand...
I wonder what a loss to sjsu would do to our rating. Especially if we get blown out.

In the Boise game today they mentioned that Boise should root for us. If SJSU wins apparently they have the potential in taking at least one of the spots, maybe theirs?

It does feel like it would be unlikely for UNLV to miss out on the game completely.
 
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dcut03 said:
I wonder what a loss to sjsu would do to our rating. Especially if we get blown out.

In the Boise game today they mentioned that Boise should root for us. If SJSU wins apparently they have the potential in taking at least one of the spots, maybe theirs?

It does feel like it would be unlikely for UNLV to miss out on the game completely.
Click to expand...
They would jump Boise at 64 but they're like 40 points behind us I think and that'd be to much to jump with 1 win
 
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