SI’s Pat Forde on College Football Playoffs after week 1

[TimothyC3]

Hey, it’s way early. But it sure is nice to be part of the discussion.

The Buzzin’ Dozen​

How The Dash would seed the playoff if today were Selection Sunday. (As usual, this is based on actual results to date, not preseason rankings or conjecture. If you played an FCS opponent in Week 1, you’re not up for consideration here.)

• No. 1 seed: Georgia (SEC champion)
• No. 2 seed: Penn State (Big Ten champion)
• No. 3 seed: Miami (ACC champion)
• No. 4 seed: TCU (Big 12 champion)
• No. 5 seed: Notre Dame (at-large selection)
• No. 6 seed: USC (at-large selection)
• No. 7 seed: Georgia Tech (at-large selection)
• No. 8 seed: Vanderbilt (at-large selection)
• No. 9 seed: Ohio State (at-large selection)
• No. 10 seed: Texas (at-large selection)
• No. 11 seed: LSU (at-large selection)
• No. 12 seed: UNLV (Group of 5 champion)

First-round matchups: UNLV at Notre Dame; LSU at USC; Texas at Georgia Tech; Ohio State at Vanderbilt.
First-round byes: Georgia, Penn State, Miami, TCU.



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[bcvegaspt2]

Another projection has us playing at Penn State. Someone on Twitter commented that we’d feel cheated to have to play in Happy Valley. Do they not know how HUGE that would be for us???

 

[1Tripoda]

Another projection has us playing at Penn State. Someone on Twitter commented that we’d feel cheated to have to play in Happy Valley. Do they not know how HUGE that would be for us???

The #5 face #12 in the first game? While the #1-4 have a bye?

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Another projection has us playing at Penn State. Someone on Twitter commented that we’d feel cheated to have to play in Happy Valley. Do they not know how HUGE that would be for us???

I would be happy to play anyone anytime anyplace. Just happy to be there? Yep!

 

[Rebel1986]

I would be happy to play anyone anytime anyplace. Just happy to be there? Yep!

Considering two seasons ago we couldn't even sniff a bowl game, this would be beyond huge! Sign me up!

 

[1Tripoda]

With UNLV's schedule, #12 seed is not the ceiling. Goes 3-0 by beating KU will get UNLV ranked. Winning the MWC with one loss might move UNLV to a higher seed. Maybe...

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Not to be Debbie downer but I think it would take us 10 wins..

I think 9 will be really tough.

Syracuse/Boise/Oregon State/KU are all going to be tough games.

Fresno won't be easy either.

But man if we got into the CFP I'd have Odom's baby.

 

[Rebel1986]

Not to be Debbie downer but I think it would take us 10 wins..

I think 9 will be really tough.

Syracuse/Boise/Oregon State/KU are all going to be tough games.

Fresno won't be easy either.

But man if we got into the CFP I'd have Odom's baby.

Sorry, but I think Odom is already taken!

 

[Masked_rebel]

Personally, I'd love to play ND or Penn St in the CFP because both seem to fall flat in BCS/CFP eras when they reach that portion of the season...

 

[dcut03]

With UNLV's schedule, #12 seed is not the ceiling. Goes 3-0 by beating KU will get UNLV ranked. Winning the MWC with one loss might move UNLV to a higher seed. Maybe...

Absolutely no freaking way. That would mean UNLV would work it's way up to the top 10 in both polls likely including the CFP rankings.
we could go undefeated, including beating Boise Twice after Boise beats Oregon this week. Still ain't happening

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Absolutely no freaking way. That would mean UNLV would work it's way up to the top 10 in both polls likely including the CFP rankings.
we could go undefeated, including beating Boise Twice after Boise beats Oregon this week. Still ain't happening

Extremely unlikely but if we went undefeated with two wins over BSU, win over FSU, OSU, KU, Houston, Syracuse we would be top 10. Liberty, JMU, Tulane got up to 17 without beating anyone.

 

[1Tripoda]

Also depend upon how the top 10 shake up or shake out. #10 Florida State just lost twice in 8 days, for an example

 

[ckfitz]

Not to be Debbie downer but I think it would take us 10 wins..

I think 9 will be really tough.

Syracuse/Boise/Oregon State/KU are all going to be tough games.

Fresno won't be easy either.

But man if we got into the CFP I'd have Odom's baby.

Before looking at the Rebel's defense, it was only a dream. Now, at least, we have hope. GO REBELS!

 

[LVRebel2000]

Also depend upon how the top 10 shake up or shake out. #10 Florida State just lost twice in 8 days, for an example

yeah, but the preseason polls are a joke. I kind of wish they didn't even come out with rankings until after the games start. Otherwise, it's just pure speculation, but it does make it harder for lower teams to get in and easier for higher ranked teams to stay ranked.

 

[Rebel1986]

Absolutely no freaking way. That would mean UNLV would work it's way up to the top 10 in both polls likely including the CFP rankings.
we could go undefeated, including beating Boise Twice after Boise beats Oregon this week. Still ain't happening

The five top rated conference champions will most likely include the SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC and one other which is most likely from the MWC. While it is highly unlikely, it is very possible for the Big 12 and ACC to end up with a conference champion that isn't ranked in the top 15, and it is even possible that the conference champion could be a team outside of the top 25 depending on which teams make the conference championship. Not sure how past years have gone, but the ACC and Big 12 are most likely to have lower level teams in the top 25, while the SEC and Big 10 will most likely have the majority of higher level programs. It is very possible that the MWC could end up higher ranked than a few other teams in the playoff even if ranked outside of the top 10.

 

[dcut03]

Extremely unlikely but if we went undefeated with two wins over BSU, win over FSU, OSU, KU, Houston, Syracuse we would be top 10. Liberty, JMU, Tulane got up to 17 without beating anyone.

To be seen how good OSU is. I think they will be better than most thing, but not top 25 worthy.
I just don't see us being a top 10 teams with 1 win in the top 25, being Kansas if they win this week, and I don't see Kansas recovering from a loss to us and breaking the top 20. They are good, but they are sweeping the Big 12 good.
Houston isn't good. Syracuse is picked at the bottom of the ACC which doesn't look that good.
It puts us in the driver seat for the G5 spot for sure.
Perhaps the MW ranks higher than the Big 12 this year by the end of the year. But again we need Boise to go undefeated other than losing to us, and Fresno taking care of business outside of playing us and Boise (not sure if they play each other this year).
The bottom of the MW looks pretty bad, though UNM and UNR look a bit better than expected. There needs to be little parity for the MW to end up a top 4 conference.

 

[Masked_rebel]

To be seen how good OSU is. I think they will be better than most thing, but not top 25 worthy.
I just don't see us being a top 10 teams with 1 win in the top 25, being Kansas if they win this week, and I don't see Kansas recovering from a loss to us and breaking the top 20. They are good, but they are sweeping the Big 12 good.
Houston isn't good. Syracuse is picked at the bottom of the ACC which doesn't look that good.
It puts us in the driver seat for the G5 spot for sure.
Perhaps the MW ranks higher than the Big 12 this year by the end of the year. But again we need Boise to go undefeated other than losing to us, and Fresno taking care of business outside of playing us and Boise (not sure if they play each other this year).
The bottom of the MW looks pretty bad, though UNM and UNR look a bit better than expected. There needs to be little parity for the MW to end up a top 4 conference.

They have the team to be able to do so.. alot will hinge on Daniels remaining healthy all year. If he goes down again, their outlook will change as Ballard isnt the same dynamic threat despite being a good backup. They ahve a really good pair of corners and it will make throwing against them really difficult. Its still TBD how the rest of the conference looks although most people think KState is still a better team, not me, but Ive got a bit of bias, lol...
Any P4 champion will likely be ranked, the polls are slighted towards that, even with the number of Big10 and SEC teams there are.

 

[1Tripoda]

Coaches' Poll is out. UNLV got 9 votes tied with Liberty

2024 College Football Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2024 NCAAF rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAF teams.

www.espn.com

 

[Rebel1986]

Coaches' Poll is out. UNLV got 9 votes tied with Liberty

2024 College Football Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2024 NCAAF rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAF teams.

www.espn.com

Florida State didn't just drop from number 10 to out of the top 25, it appears they didn't get a single vote for the top 25, now that is a big time

freefall!

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

To be seen how good OSU is. I think they will be better than most thing, but not top 25 worthy.
I just don't see us being a top 10 teams with 1 win in the top 25, being Kansas if they win this week, and I don't see Kansas recovering from a loss to us and breaking the top 20. They are good, but they are sweeping the Big 12 good.
Houston isn't good. Syracuse is picked at the bottom of the ACC which doesn't look that good.
It puts us in the driver seat for the G5 spot for sure.
Perhaps the MW ranks higher than the Big 12 this year by the end of the year. But again we need Boise to go undefeated other than losing to us, and Fresno taking care of business outside of playing us and Boise (not sure if they play each other this year).
The bottom of the MW looks pretty bad, though UNM and UNR look a bit better than expected. There needs to be little parity for the MW to end up a top 4 conference.

Except all those wins would be better than anything Liberty or JMU came up with and that includes Houston. They beat absolutely nobody.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Before looking at the Rebel's defense, it was only a dream. Now, at least, we have hope. GO REBELS!

It looked really good.

I think it was a combination of improved talent. Having more guys that fit the scheme they want to run. UH coach said in post-game UNLV ran a lot more 4 man fronts vs 3 man fronts than they did last year. And it caught them a bit off guard. I think this defense will give a lot of 3-3-5 looks and 4-2-5 looks which can confuse OL/QB.

I also think Houston is going to struggle on OL and offense this year. I don't think they returned any starters from last year.

So long story short. I think by end of year our defense will look somewhere between last years unit and what we saw vs UH.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Extremely unlikely but if we went undefeated with two wins over BSU, win over FSU, OSU, KU, Houston, Syracuse we would be top 10. Liberty, JMU, Tulane got up to 17 without beating anyone.

Undefeated vs this schedule? Yeah I think that's top 10-15 ish.

You would have 3.5 P4 wins (Oregon State .5) 🙂.

Three would be on the road. One would be over a ranked KU team. Syracuse might get ranked this year as well.

Boise will likely flirt with top 25 others receiving votes.

Lot of season to go.

I'm still sticking by 8-4 or 9-3...Which vs this schedule would be another solid season for Odom and another season to build on.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Undefeated vs this schedule? Yeah I think that's top 10-15 ish.

You would have 3.5 P4 wins (Oregon State .5) 🙂.

Three would be on the road. One would be over a ranked KU team. Syracuse might get ranked this year as well.

Boise will likely flirt with top 25 others receiving votes.

Lot of season to go.

I'm still sticking by 8-4 or 9-3...Which vs this schedule would be another solid season for Odom and another season to build on.

BSU is just outside of the top 25 AP this week. I agree I think 9-3 is realistic. We won't make the CFP but it will be another move in the right direction.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

BSU is just outside of the top 25 AP this week. I agree I think 9-3 is realistic. We won't make the CFP but it will be another move in the right direction.

Yeah they are just outside now.

I was thinking more around the time we play them. Things change but they should be hovering around there if not in the top 25.

 

[Rebel1986]

BSU is just outside of the top 25 AP this week. I agree I think 9-3 is realistic. We won't make the CFP but it will be another move in the right direction.

The same reporters that now have UNLV at 8-4 or 9-3 had them at 6-6 or 7-5 a week ago, and these are same people that had UNLV losing by 2-3 points to Houston. I will wait and see how Houston plays this next week as well as how UNLV plays against Utah Tech. We all know that the Kansas game can be the make or break for UNLV having a great season!

 

[lvrebalum2012]

BSU is just outside of the top 25 AP this week. I agree I think 9-3 is realistic. We won't make the CFP but it will be another move in the right direction.

Going 9-3 this season would be like going 11-1 last year. Would be a huge feat and would mark significant progress in the forward direction. Not to mention being unprecedented for our "storied" program.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

The same reporters that now have UNLV at 8-4 or 9-3 had them at 6-6 or 7-5 a week ago, and these are same people that had UNLV losing by 2-3 points to Houston. I will wait and see how Houston plays this next week as well as how UNLV plays against Utah Tech. We all know that the Kansas game can be the make or break for UNLV having a great season!

Yep if we beat Kansas then the season can go an entirely different direction.

 

[dcut03]

Except all those wins would be better than anything Liberty or JMU came up with and that includes Houston. They beat absolutely nobody.

I agree, but liberty had some juice coming into the season, they were more highly regarded at the beginning of last year than we did this year.
They also were ranked 23 in the CFP last year. Its not like they were close to being anything other than the token G5 team.
Our resume would be a lot better than them, but not enough to unseat a p4 team

 

[1Tripoda]

Yeah they are just outside now.

I was thinking more around the time we play them. Things change but they should be hovering around around there if not in the top 25.

UNLV is at #35. Not far from top 25. Boise have a lot of weaknesses this year. Oregon may expose them next week. If not, teams like Fresno, UNLV will expose it
Hawaii is pretty solid, too. Since UNLV is travelling to Oahu, be careful. Hawaii offence is no joke.
If I have not said it, I really like the Syracuse's QB. Once they learn how to support him, Syracuse might be a scary team.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

I agree, but liberty had some juice coming into the season, they were more highly regarded at the beginning of last year than we did this year.
They also were ranked 23 in the CFP last year. Its not like they were close to being anything other than the token G5 team.
Our resume would be a lot better than them, but not enough to unseat a p4 team

Tulane and JMU weren't hyped and they reached 17. Plus we wouldn't have to unseat a top P4 team it would likely be a 2 loss team like GA Tech.

 

[1Tripoda]

Tulane and JMU weren't hyped and they reached 17. Plus we wouldn't have to unseat a top P4 team it would likely be a 2 loss team like GA Tech.

I mean if any team like Liberty want to play another game vs UNLV or Boise or Fresno for a higher seeding than #12, I want to see it.

 

[Mojo702]

UNLV just needs to schedule Liberty next year (home & home) since there is a "rivalry" for the top G5er. Them and their shit SOS year after year

 

[dcut03]

Tulane and JMU weren't hyped and they reached 17. Plus we wouldn't have to unseat a top P4 team it would likely be a 2 loss team like GA Tech.

Liberty may have reached 17 in the regular polls but only 23 in the CFP poll which is the only that matters here.
And we would he looking at 2 loss SEC teams, not GT which looks to be a down year for ACC outside of Miami so far.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Liberty may have reached 17 in the regular polls but only 23 in the CFP poll which is the only that matters here.
And we would he looking at 2 loss SEC teams, not GT which looks to be a down year for ACC outside of Miami so far.

Tulane got higher they also beat no one. To go higher than 12 would just be spots 11, 10...those won't all be 2 loss SEC teams.

Also looked in 2020 Coastal Carolina made it to 12 in CFP, Central Florida and Cincy both made it into the top 10 twice, Western Michigan #15 other than 2021 Cincy all with less impressive schedules than ours.

 

[dcut03]

Tulane got higher they also beat no one. To go higher than 12 would just be spots 11, 10...those won't all be 2 loss SEC teams.

Also looked in 2020 Coastal Carolina made it to 12 in CFP, Central Florida and Cincy both made it into the top 10 twice, Western Michigan #15 other than 2021 Cincy all with less impressive schedules than ours.

Our schedule will be good, not great. 3 middle to lower power schools if you count Oregon state. A MW that is getting strong at the top, and maybe a tiny bit better at the bottom, but weaker in the middle.

We would have to go undefeated which is very unlikely AND there needs to be a lot of parity in the power conferences. I don't think an undefeated UNLV team will rank higher than a 2 loss SEC team or BIG 10 team this year. Probably same with the Big 12, maybe the ACC.

I do think we are in great shape for that G5 spot. We pretty much control our destiny there. If we finish 11-2, or 10-3 ( with a MW crown) I think we are in. Regardless of JMU or Liberty, or any other G5 school's record.

 

[Boston Rebel 2]

Our schedule will be good, not great. 3 middle to lower power schools if you count Oregon state. A MW that is getting strong at the top, and maybe a tiny bit better at the bottom, but weaker in the middle.

We would have to go undefeated which is very unlikely AND there needs to be a lot of parity in the power conferences. I don't think an undefeated UNLV team will rank higher than a 2 loss SEC team or BIG 10 team this year. Probably same with the Big 12, maybe the ACC.

I do think we are in great shape for that G5 spot. We pretty much control our destiny there. If we finish 11-2, or 10-3 ( with a MW crown) I think we are in. Regardless of JMU or Liberty, or any other G5 school's record.

I think going undefeated is highly unlikely but IF we did I am certain we would be top 10 just looking at some of those other teams that made it or almost did with much lesser schedules. I would feel a lot better with 2 losses if 3 then we have to get help most likely needing Boise to lose a few including to us.

 

[Bullmastiff 1]

Our schedule will be good, not great. 3 middle to lower power schools if you count Oregon state. A MW that is getting strong at the top, and maybe a tiny bit better at the bottom, but weaker in the middle.

We would have to go undefeated which is very unlikely AND there needs to be a lot of parity in the power conferences. I don't think an undefeated UNLV team will rank higher than a 2 loss SEC team or BIG 10 team this year. Probably same with the Big 12, maybe the ACC.

I do think we are in great shape for that G5 spot. We pretty much control our destiny there. If we finish 11-2, or 10-3 ( with a MW crown) I think we are in. Regardless of JMU or Liberty, or any other G5 school's record.

Houston, Syracuse, KU and Oregon State make for 3.5 P4 schools. (Oregon State being the .5)

Provided KU beats Illinois that would give the Rebs 1 shot at a ranked team.

Boise could be ranked when Rebs play them.

Syracuse has a chance to break top 25 as well by time Rebs play them.

That's 3 potential top 25 opponents plus 1.5 P4 opponents.

I don't think the Rebs will beat all four. But if they did...

That's gotta be pushing top 15 provided no hiccups vs anybody else.

 

[dcut03]

I think going undefeated is highly unlikely but IF we did I am certain we would be top 10 just looking at some of those other teams that made it or almost did with much lesser schedules. I would feel a lot better with 2 losses if 3 then we have to get help most likely needing Boise to lose a few including to us.

Houston, Syracuse, KU and Oregon State make for 3.5 P4 schools. (Oregon State being the .5)

Provided KU beats Illinois that would give the Rebs 1 shot at a ranked team.

Boise could be ranked when Rebs play them.

Syracuse has a chance to break top 25 as well by time Rebs play them.

That's 3 potential top 25 opponents plus 1.5 P4 opponents.

I don't think the Rebs will beat all four. But if they did...

That's gotta be pushing top 15 provided no hiccups vs anybody else.

I agree it is possible, but I don't think the rebs would be able to control their destiny if they went undefeated, which is my point. And we are talking about THIS season, where UNLV was not ranked in the preseason, and have absent name recognition.

And we aren't just talking about making the playoffs, we are talking about be ranked so high that it would get an at large bid over an power school. Which is at the very least top 11 in the CFP by the end of the year. But then you look at a few factors.

I contend that we will not be ranked above any power 1 loss team. Probably not above most power 2 loss teams, even some power 3 loss teams depending on who they beat.

4 spots are autobids to the power conferences, correct? So that could mean we would have to crack the top 10.

It has been a while since we have seen that happen, and who knows what happens in this new super power conference era. I would suspect that with fewer conferences, then they will be more forgiving with losses to power schools. Of course a little less emphasis on winning conference championships. You can almost guarantee that all power conference championships participants will get seats in the playoff as well. Finishing top 2 in the p4 seems like a no brainer. Then think about the runner up in SEC west, for instance. A LOT of championship contenders tend to play there. What about them? Then there is Notre Dame. A 1 or 2 loss season for them will take a seat.

The new playoff is about getting more power teams into the championships, not fewer. I am happy that the G5 gets the carrot of the autobid. I just think that without a marquee win, which we wouldn't have unless Kansas goes undefeated other than us, then we would be looking at that 12 seed if we went undefeated.

Boise could perhaps get in being undefeated. Beating Oregon would be a marquee win.

 

[Masked_rebel]

Lol.. come on guys. We arent getting a home game in the CFP. the game is rigged in the favor of the P4 conferences in order to get them more $$ through home ticket sales. Theres no way that even an undefeated UNLV could crack its way into the top 10 over 4 or 5 SEC(Bama, Georgia, LSU, Texas, Ole Miss...) teams and 4-5 Big 10 teams (Ohio St. Michigan, USC, Oregon, Penn St. etc), and the Big 12, and the ACC, and ND... Its not happening, and thats even if we went undefeated with all those resume wins. Its a rigged game and we get the last of the leftovers and should be grateful at that.

 

[unlove]

Ranked #1 on a list to make the playoffs? I’m not gonna complain or quibble about anything. Living a dream right now that I thought would take several years of growth and consistency to reach. The stars have aligned for us and I’m riding this rocket as far it takes us!! Let’s go Rebs! Let’s go Odom! Let’s go Go-Go!!